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Super Bowl Formula


Mikie2times

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32 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Where do you find the time to write these letters? You have to be retired. Right? 

SDS commissioned me to write overly complicated Bills content in different historical eras......

 

 

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Ideally you have an epic three phase team that crushes everyone. But with the cap and the general decisions making that means you likely have to make some cuts on areas of the roster. 
 

The best way to build a consistent contender is likely to once you find the stud QB build out an epic offense and good ST unit and then just try to have an average defense. 
 

Making some cuts on defense so your stud QB can have good weapons and protection is likely the best thing you can do.

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11 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

 

 

Agreed, but Beane wants to keep the team competitive for multiple years, not do a "Rams" and win one SB and then suck for 10 years, so there is a balance.  

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11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 


I stopped reading at “EPA.” But I think the point is that it’s not realistic in today’s game to expect to win a championship by featuring a shut down defense.

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13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

 

In order to win in the playoffs (and SB),  if the Defense sucks, the Offense must to bail them out.  If the Offense sucks, the Defense must bail them out.

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3 minutes ago, mabden said:

 

In order to win in the playoffs (and SB),  if the Defense sucks, the Offense must to bail them out.  If the Offense sucks, the Defense must bail them out.

Close…but I think the point was that historically (at least recently anyway) the defense is going to ‘suck’. 

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15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

This isn't just about our defense. This is about the team collectively being good enough to pick each other up, to avoid the meltdown. Which thus far has not happened on both sides of the ball outside 2021. We can't allow more than about a 15 EPA on defense to have a shot. Not unless Josh goes off. But for those that think the path would most likely be to hold our our opponents under 3 TD's for an entire playoff run? That isn't going to happen.  

 

Nice post!  Thanks for taking the time to do all that.  

 

BTW, that ChatGPT is hilarious.  How did you ask it to do it?  ... in what style that is?  

 

Regarding your concluding statement above, and to add to it, it simply comes down to not underachieving.  It's one thing when you go play a game, play your best, and either lose to a team that happened to be on fire or better than you, it's quite another to play worse than you did on average during the season on one or both sides.  

 

Going through our 9 playoff games under McD: 

 

2017:   D played well, O massively underachieved to season worst standard. 

 

2019:  Given the Texans' very average-at-best offensive and defensive rankings, both units underachieved albeit only marginally.  

 

2020 Colts:  PAR 

2020 Ravens:  D overachieved, O underachieved 

2020 Chiefs:  O underachieved marginally, D underachieved 

 

2021 Pats:  O overachieved, D PAR to marginally overachieved 

2021 Chiefs:  O overachieved, D underachieved 

 

2022 Fins:  O PAR to overachieved, D massively underachieved 

2022 Bengals:  O massively underachieved, D underachieved.  

 

When we consider that our defense was ranked 1st or 2nd in 2022, 2021, and 2019, and that our offense was ranked 2nd or 3rd in 2020 - 2022 that renders it even less impressive.  

 

At the end of the day, as you stated and implied otherwise, we've simply not gotten anywhere near the most from this team come playoff time in six seasons and 9 playoff games with the sole exception of the Pats' Wild-Card game.  Most people would attribute that kind of sustained underachievement to coaching, not the talent on the team.  The only ones that don't appear to be a subset of Bills fans.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, without a drought said:

Make the playoffs.

 

Win all of your playoff games.

 

Pretty simple formula.

Oh! I just sent this information over to One Bills Drive.  Hopefully this is what puts us over the top.

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On 6/21/2023 at 6:27 PM, Nextmanup said:

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

Actually, he said that you have games where the offense has to overcome bad defense, and where defense has to overcome bad offense. You need to have both, according to the OP.

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14 hours ago, Airseven said:

I stopped reading at “EPA.” But I think the point is that it’s not realistic in today’s game to expect to win a championship by featuring a shut down defense.

That's not the conclusion.

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