DVOA has Bills the #1 projected team

[Airseven]

No idea if/when Miller will return and play effectively. DL, overall, is still more quantity than quality. Edmunds departed and wasn’t replaced. White, Hyde, and Poyer are still major concerns post-injury. Still not sure if there’s a #2 corner on the roster. I’d say the “top 5” rhetoric is a long shot.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

DVOA is a nice analytical tool, but it’s backward looking (as almost all are). So they’re just saying we were #1 last year so they expect us to be very good this year. It can’t have any data from this season until games are played. 

Well, it's more than that at this time of year, but fundamentally your right.  They take last year's analysis and tweak it based on what they think about the off-season, etc.   Same as anyone else. 

 

If you watch their analysis over the course of a season, it gets increasingly better, because the analysis increasingly is driven by the current year's data and less by their predictions. 

[The Jokeman]

11 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Tremaine Edmunds is coming back ?

 

I was never a huge fan of his, but losing him is going to hurt the DEF. 

 

That being said I could easily see our DEF being top 10 next season. Maybe top 5

 

OFF should be top 5 

The offense has to be more balanced. As we need to get more consistent running from our RBs not see our QB rush for 50 yards a game. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

Is the ceremony before or after the gala for useless statistics? I just want to make sure you can be my +1.

Sorry dude but nominations closed on the 15th and yours will be judged on your body of work before then.  The sarcasm quoted above, which is improved but still extremely weak, can be considered for the 2024 award ceremony, but not for this year.  You may want to take a break and read up on some techniques rather than flailing about in ineptitude.  Less is more.

[Shaw66]

49 minutes ago, Airseven said:

No idea if/when Miller will return and play effectively. DL, overall, is still more quantity than quality. Edmunds departed and wasn’t replaced. White, Hyde, and Poyer are still major concerns post-injury. Still not sure if there’s a #2 corner on the roster. I’d say the “top 5” rhetoric is a long shot.

Interesting point about the dline.   It's high quality quantity, in that there six or eight very good football players there, but unless and until the real Miller returns, there's no true high-end quality.  

 

I guess the difference is that the great players are just a problem to handle one on one.  The only way to deal with the great players is with double teams.   The Bills have a bunch of dlinemen who are very good, but none who demand double teams.  That's what Miller was supposed to be, and he was.   When (if) he returns to form, then all of those other very good but not great guys become very effective. 

[78thealltimegreat]

There are only two questions with the Bills RT aka Spencer Brown and 2WR aka Gabe Davis…if these two things are solid the bills can beat anyone by 2 scores….if they average the Bills will be in every game…if they are bad the bills will fight to make a playoff spot. 

[PrimeTime101]

13 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

[SCBills]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This will be the third year running we’ve heard that…. The last two the defense has been annihilated in their elimination games…. Even as good as the Eagles defense was all year, they were taken to the wood shed in the 2nd half of the SB…. It’s just so incredibly difficult to have a dominant defense in today’s NFL with the way the rules and penalties are set…. I sincerely doubt this defense will be a “monster”… I expect it will be good and then give up plenty of yardage and points once it meets a top QB come playoff time…. For the most part, It’s all about if your offense can go toe to toe with the opposing teams offense nowadays…. Hence the reason I wish they’d find a way to give Hopkins what he’s looking for or come to an agreement any way possible. 

To start the season up until the KC game the defense looked damn good… after that, the defense never looked “scary good”.  It looked solid but susceptible, and once the Von injury hit it was pretty meh. 

 

I think last years defense could've been elite if Von and Hyde stayed healthy.  

 

Ultimately they didn't, and Tre never regained his prior self ability at any point in the season.   

 

Add in other serious injuries leading into the Bengals beatdown to end the season (Jones, Poyer, Phillips etc.,) and this defense was a shell of itself by the time we played Cinci.  

 

I do think Frazier was a liability in the postseason, so perhaps not a ton would've changed, but I have to think this defense performs better with a healthy Von, Hyde and Jones.   Bengals only really had one injury against us on defense... their CB1.  We were down EDGE, DT & S, along with two guys in Phillips and Poyer who had no business being on the field.  

[PrimeTime101]

13 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on the afternoon show.  Link won’t post but its on the details page on the WGR app.

 

Bills were #1 last year as well for reference.

 

He thinks our defense will dominate this year with everyone coming back.

 

with everyone posting so much hate from the media, it is refreshing to see some positivity out of some threads. Ty.

[Heavy Kevi]

12 hours ago, Success said:

Objectively, this is the best Bills team since the '90s - and possibly better than those teams.

 

It's the 1st time in the JA era that I feel like there is real balance on the team.  There really aren't any weak units.  The O-line should be vastly improved w/ the acquisitions - and I'm incredibly excited to see us FINALLY have a run game that doesn't rely on Allen.  I don't think some fans here understand yet how good Harris can be when healthy.

 

I'm stoked. Especially since the unanimous opinion in the rest of NFL fandom & punditry is that the Bills are "taking a step back" this year.  

 

 

That's my favorite part. We were so uncomfortable as the darling last year.

 

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Signing Floyd to compliment Rousseau was brilliant.  Don't rush Von back too early. And when he does return (week 6?), keep him on a snap count.  Hyde & Poyer healthy will be huge.  We'll see which LB rises up to pair with Milano. At the very least I think we'll be a top 8 D. I'm actually a little excited to see Sean take everything over.

 

For real! Miller played way too many snaps when healthy last year.

 

Need this guy come playoff time

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

For a front office/regime that has prioritized depth over great starters it was an awfully poor showing vs a team down 3 starting offensive linemen…. And Poyer played. 

 

Phillips has a history of injury at this point and I think it’s a lot to ask for some of these guys to remain healthy for the extent of the season… especially the older safeties in Hyde/Poyer… again, I’d be very surprised if they are “monster” defense.

 

Agreed about the depth against a team also starting a makeshift OL. 

[finn]

Objective numbers? Bah. What's important is the Prevailing Narrative, which declares the Bills to be the third or fourth best team and Allen the third or fourth best QB. 

 

As much as I enjoyed the Bills being the media darlings last year, I knew the talking heads would turn on them in a flash if they didn't go all the way as they predicted. And turn on them they have, with a vengeance. 

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

No idea if/when Miller will return and play effectively. DL, overall, is still more quantity than quality. Edmunds departed and wasn’t replaced. White, Hyde, and Poyer are still major concerns post-injury. Still not sure if there’s a #2 corner on the roster. I’d say the “top 5” rhetoric is a long shot.

Everybody sucks.

[That's No Moon]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Sorry dude but nominations closed on the 15th and yours will be judged on your body of work before then.  The sarcasm quoted above, which is improved but still extremely weak, can be considered for the 2024 award ceremony, but not for this year.  You may want to take a break and read up on some techniques rather than flailing about in ineptitude.  Less is more.

That's a shame. I'll see if Leslie Frazier is available since that was his defense and everyone loved it so.

[hondo in seattle]

Isn't Schatz the guy who once said this about Allen:  "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect...  there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback...  I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen."

 

I hope he's right about the quality of the Bills team this year but I don't know how much I trust his analytical models.  

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[DapperCam]

3 hours ago, Airseven said:

No idea if/when Miller will return and play effectively. DL, overall, is still more quantity than quality. Edmunds departed and wasn’t replaced. White, Hyde, and Poyer are still major concerns post-injury. Still not sure if there’s a #2 corner on the roster. I’d say the “top 5” rhetoric is a long shot.

Saying it is a long shot is just pessimistic. We were #4 in defensive DVOA last year without Hyde, Miller missing time, Oliver gimpy, Tre White basically missing the year, Poyer gimpy, Dane Jackson having his neck bent backwards, etc. Cam Lewis (who?) saw significant starting time.

We might not be top 5 because a lot of randomness happens in football, but it isn't a long shot.

[BullBuchanan]

DVOA is a great indicator that a team is good. Every Super Bowl Champ from 2010 to 2020 ranked top 10 on at least one side of the ball and most often they were top 10 in both. However, since 2000 (until at least 2020), only 3 winners ranked #1 overall (Bucs, Seahawks, Pats)

I'm not sure what success criteria June predictions have for end of season DVOA.

In short, this post gets an: Ok, cool.

[Utah John]

21 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Tremaine Edmunds is coming back ?

 

I was never a huge fan of his, but losing him is going to hurt the DEF. 

 

That being said I could easily see our DEF being top 10 next season. Maybe top 5

 

OFF should be top 5 

The Bills designed their D around Edmunds, with his great length and height and speed.  He just took up a lot of space and forced the opposing O to limit what they could do.  At the same time, Edmunds clearly never had the anticipation and brutality that great MLBs have.  Without him, the Bills will redesign their D, hopefully making it more aggressive.  I think the D line will be a lot better this year, and if Tre White is really back, the defensive backfield will also be good.  Milano will be his usual great self.  So all we really need is an aggressive, high motor MLB.  

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, Utah John said:

The Bills designed their D around Edmunds, with his great length and height and speed.  He just took up a lot of space and forced the opposing O to limit what they could do.  At the same time, Edmunds clearly never had the anticipation and brutality that great MLBs have.  Without him, the Bills will redesign their D, hopefully making it more aggressive.  I think the D line will be a lot better this year, and if Tre White is really back, the defensive backfield will also be good.  Milano will be his usual great self.  So all we really need is an aggressive, high motor MLB.  

 

And now, let us all take a moment to knock on wood. We had a pretty good looking plan last year…….until we didn’t. 

[Einstein]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

For a front office/regime that has prioritized depth over great starters it was an awfully poor showing vs a team down 3 starting offensive linemen….

 

Homer Excuses Book

Volume IV

Pg. 208

"If the subject of the Bengals' patchwork offensive line in their demolition of the Bills during the 2023 playoffs arises, tactfully segue to the hardship defense. Remind them of Kim's medical crisis from 8 months prior, the sorrowful Hamlin event 3 weeks before, and as a last resort, sheepishly mention the Tops tragedy. So on and so forth.”

[FitzShowUsYourTitz]

On 6/19/2023 at 8:45 PM, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

Yessss.  I think I’ll go read the Colin Cowterd thread.  #ILoveRollercoasters

[Mikie2times]

We ranked 1st last year, 2nd in 2021, 4th in 2020. 1st/1st/4th if you count playoffs. I trust the DVOA rankings more than any other, but the system tends to rate us too high as a result of what we have done against bottom 3rd teams. If you told me a team ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th in DVOA over a three year span it would be hard to not win a Super Bowl. Almost impossible to have not gone to one. DVOA just doesn't work as well with how our team produces output. Good to see though, nothing I'm saying is to suggest we won't have a great year. As so many have said, it comes down to what we do in the playoffs. 

[eball]

On 6/19/2023 at 8:45 PM, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

 

That’s not how DVOA works.

 

[colin]

our super high dvoa shows that at our best we can beat anyone at any time in any situation, largely a function of our big play reducing D and our big play producing unicorn qb.  we tend to lose the same way, where we face a decent team who finds a weak spot and just keeps pressing it and we have no answer and allen tries playing on his head and making the impossible happen (sometimes too soon in the game, where he forces mistakes) and a block gets blown or someone drops a pass and we come up just short (or the d does the equivalent).  

 

the exciting part is we can fix this by handling some of the more basic business as usual football stuff w some blocking and running and adjustments on D.  i really think this year we made enough moves and mcd taking over the d will give the team a nasty and aggressive edge that will suit us better overall.