Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[Beck Water]

59 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Talk to me around week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year.

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

My man, there is a dude in this very topic who said he is the best TE prospect in the last 10 years, and would have been better than Pitts if he was in the SEC.

2 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

what awfully simplistic analysis! Great job.

Did you post anything meaningful today?  Legacy points deducted.

[ExiledInIllinois]

What about Mike Ditka, 1961:

 

1961 56Catches 1076yards 19.2Avg. 12Td 76long

 

Pretty impressive!

[klos63]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

These obviously mean nothing in regards to Kincaid. Plus he is moving into a very pass happy offense with an MVP caliber QB. I don't know what to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big impact on the offense.

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, klos63 said:

These obviously mean nothing in regards to Kincaid. Plus he is moving into a very pass happy offense with an MVP caliber QB. I don't know what to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big impact on the offense.

 

That's right, good point, we don't know what to expect.  But we can at least use last season's info for a guide.  

 

Only three of our WRs/TEs had more than 42 catches, only one had more than 48.  The fourth one, McKenzie, had 42.  After him, 10, 8, 6, 4.  

 

We have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid.  Knox is getting a bundle too, it's doubtful that he'll be relegated to backup status, and he shouldn't be until if/when Kincaid proves to be the better TE.  

 

Either way, a good exercise would be dividing on or about those 270 catches amongst our 7 receivers.  

 

 

[Koufax]

10 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The point by the OP is that this guy can have a great year by TE standards and it won't amount to much production at all. He might be great but who cares if he only has 400 yards receiving? That's not pushing us over the edge towards super bowl contention

If you think 27 (25) bears on his shoulders pushing us over the edge then you have bough in to the ESPN/NFL promote the off season hype. Be the best player you can be over five years knowing that rookie impact varies. Do that year after year at 25 and I hope pretty soon at 32 and good things happen. I love the upside of this pick. Someone behind him will be better and someone in front of him will be worse. But at the time we pick he was at the top of my board and can have an impact immediate but doesn’t have to. Go Bills. 

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

 

What sidestep?  There's a big difference between playing time and being featured. 

 

I'll say it again, Dalton Kincaid will not be a focal point of the offense in 2023.  He'll be lucky to catch 35 balls this season.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

He will not be the typical TE, They are talking about him multiple times in the slot which is Travis Kelce's bread and butter. He is going to be fun to watch and this should also open up Dawson Knox as well who will be the traditional TE. I heard it from Beane and from Kincaid in the interviews what the expectations were.

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

Not one player that you can turned into a star,  just another reason why Beane was stupid to waste a first and fourth on a position that we already have Knox at.  I don't care what number he had at Utah.  They could have traded down and got an extra 3rd and taken the monster TE from Georgia.  I like all his other picks,  just wished he had picked up a monster size DT.

We do a lot of mimicking of the Kansas City Chiefs
 

If Dalton can be 75% of what Kelsey is, it will have been worth the cost

[KDIGGZ]

4 hours ago, Koufax said:

If you think 27 (25) bears on his shoulders pushing us over the edge then you have bough in to the ESPN/NFL promote the off season hype. Be the best player you can be over five years knowing that rookie impact varies. Do that year after year at 25 and I hope pretty soon at 32 and good things happen. I love the upside of this pick. Someone behind him will be better and someone in front of him will be worse. But at the time we pick he was at the top of my board and can have an impact immediate but doesn’t have to. Go Bills. 

They were talking about it on WGR. Unless he's the best TE in the history of the Buffalo Bills then this pick will be a bust. The Bills haven't had much production from the TE position at all throughout their history. Who is their best TE ever? Now look up his stats and you won't be very impressed. TE is not a position you need to spend a #1 on

[GunnerBill]

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

I dunno; bear in mind that unlike Fant he is on a team with a good vet TE that will be used too. Hard to compare a TE’s stats in a two-TE system vs one in which a single TE is getting most of the attention.
 

Incidentally, Gronk was drafted 13 years ago and wasn’t drafted THAT far behind where Kincaid was drafted (42nd; second TE taken in that draft). He was a first round talent who dropped because of concern about his back (perhaps teams remember this and weren’t scared off by Kincaid’s back issue as a result). Anyway, in his rookie season he had 42 catches for 536 yards and 10 TDs. The next season, he 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. The Pats lost that SB because he got hurt in the playoffs blocking for an XP. He was that valuable.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno; bear in mind that unlike Fant he is on a team with a good vet TE that will be used too. Hard to compare a TE’s stats in a two-TE system vs one in which a single TE is getting most of the attention.
 

Incidentally, Gronk was drafted 13 years ago and wasn’t drafted THAT far behind where Kincaid was drafted (42nd; second TE taken in that draft). He was a first round talent who dropped because of concern about his back (perhaps teams remember this and weren’t scared off by Kincaid’s back issue as a result). Anyway, in his rookie season he had 42 catches for 536 yards and 10 TDs. The next season, he 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. The Pats lost that SB because he got hurt in the playoffs blocking for an XP. He was that valuable.

 

If you are spending a 1st round pick then a) he needs to be on the field and b) he needs to produce in that range - between Eifert and Fant. Anything less would be a disappointing rookie year for me. I am not asking for 800 yards or anything. Somewhere 420 and 550 and 3 or 4 TDs. 

 

Dawson Knox had 388 and 2 TDs as a rookie and he was a total project. I don't think I am setting the bar too high.

[Dr. Who]

If Kincaid is getting significant snaps as a big slot, he should have plenty of opportunities to put up relatively strong numbers. The weakness at slot last year was one of the main contributing factors in the uneven production of the offense. I am annoyed by those who keep bringing assumptions that pertain to traditional TE usage to Kincaid. Kelce is the exemplar that anticipates the kind of career he will ideally achieve. Knox will continue to get TE1 looks, but I expect Kincaid to ultimately emerge as the alternate to a WR2 in terms of priority of targets.

[Billz4ever]

20 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Within 2 years Kincaid will surpass Dawson as TE1.  He just gets open and doesn't drop the ball.  I see him as a large slot receiver. And he will open up redzone opportunities. 

Beane already said they aren't in competition with each other.  If Kincaid isn't going to be used on the line, while Knox continues to play the traditional TE role, Dawson still stays TE1 regardless.  

[Billz4ever]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

 

I think a lot of Kincaid's (and Knox's for that matter) success or lack thereof this season hinges tremendously on Ken Dorsey.  In an offense that creates the mismatches like Beane talked about and almost dictates coverages to the Defense, I think the sky is the limit.  It's really up to Dorsey to make it happen.

 

The O-line should be better than last season and with a weapon like Kincaid, some of the focus should be off Diggs.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'm expecting Kincaid to out-target Knox. Maybe not out snap Knox though. My guess would be each with about 40-50 receptions. If we are to believe that we will use Kincaid as our primary slot receiver I would expect him to out-target and out catch Knox quite easily. 

[Rebel101]

21 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

I agree I see them using him more as a lot receiver and have him line up anywhere. His frames not even that big for a TE honestly 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 hours ago, NoSaint said:

plenty of those guys are pass catchers. If there are about 4500 yards and 35 or so TDs to go around I think he’s 4-500 and 5 of those.

Knox similar. Davis close to 1k, diggs closer to 14-1500, and the remainder of the depth guys and backs for 1000

 

Let's become a better offense by spreading the ball around more.

 

Diggs, should be 1,200 and Davis should see a decrease in targets so I would say 800 - 900 yards for Davis tops. We need to spread the ball around more. Stop forcing the ball to Diggs and Davis all the time.  The RB's should be seeing way more targets too. 

[Bob in STL]

21 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Nothing in this “analysis” means much since every player was on a different team, with a different QB, in a different scheme, with a different role, playing a different schedule. 
 

I am not saying he will catch 30 or 50 or 70 until we see how they actually use him.  I expected more from Knox but his targets are not there.  Kincaid will likely not be used as a traditional TE and we could see him as WR3 quite often.