Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Agreed. People need to temper their expectations based on this reason alone. Although That’s actually a pretty good stat line as a #2 TE and would show Kincaid is getting the most out of his opportunities.

 

I’m not sure why we are pigeonholing so much calling him a “Tight End”.  I think he’s a hybrid. He can be moved all over depending upon matchups.

 

I’m not saying we are smart enough or good enough to pull it off, but it has the potential to be very cool, IMO. 

[PrimeTime101]

16 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Agreed. People need to temper their expectations based on this reason alone. Although That’s actually a pretty good stat line as a #2 TE and would show Kincaid is getting the most out of his opportunities.

here is the big banger..

 

Ready for this?

 

Each individual can have what ever expectation they want out of a player, agree or not.. What drives me nuts is people telling other people what they MUST expect and not expect... I find that hysterical. 

 

I think the Kid could cap off his year at 600 yards based on what we have and the variety of ways we can use him. No one is going to ask him to run block. every run down. But lining up on the LOS and chipping a de then running for a rout? That is a typically normal habit of even a receiving TE. You think he will only get 300 yards? that is your opinion but don't tell me what my opinion can or can not be. 

 

Just because the GM says "they both will work well together" does not mean he can not line up on the other side of the LOS, Chip and receive a ball against good DL teams. 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by PrimeTime101

[akm0404]

Y’all are a bunch of silly geese talking about how many catches and yards the guy will have and using that as a yardstick to measure success. 
 

We have an elite team with an elite qb in a championship window. This isn’t fantasy football where stats are king. 
 

Remember last year every time we would have first and goal from the 5 and you knew deep down it was going to be almost impossible to score 6? I do. 
 

Can this guy be used to generate positive matchups in key situations that can get us over the hump against other elite teams? I don’t care if he has 10 or 30 or 100 catches - I care about the 4th quarter Third and Goal against KC when we are up a field goal looking to ice the game. Does Kincaid draw two defenders with a smooth release leaving Cook open in the flat?

We need to become more difficult to defend and I’m hoping this helps. But really, who cares whether him or Trent Sherfield catches a random 20 yard pass in week 2?

 

<!rant>

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

Y’all are a bunch of silly geese talking about how many catches and yards the guy will have and using that as a yardstick to measure success. 
 

We have an elite team with an elite qb in a championship window. This isn’t fantasy football where stats are king. 
 

Remember last year every time we would have first and goal from the 5 and you knew deep down it was going to be almost impossible to score 6? I do. 
 

Can this guy be used to generate positive matchups in key situations that can get us over the hump against other elite teams? I don’t care if he has 10 or 30 or 100 catches - I care about the 4th quarter Third and Goal against KC when we are up a field goal looking to ice the game. Does Kincaid draw two defenders with a smooth release leaving Cook open in the flat?

We need to become more difficult to defend and I’m hoping this helps. But really, who cares whether him or Trent Sherfield catches a random 20 yard pass in week 2?

 

<!rant>

You know we were 9th in RZ offense right? And would have been higher if Josh wasn’t tossing them into linebackers’ chests?

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Who cares what he said about Ed Oliver... not every player pans out to an elite player.  What Beane says about a player like Oliver is what everyone else was saying.. No one has a crystal ball and knows ahead of time how a player would be when they hit the NFL field. That being said, I am done with the cry baby nay sayers that are so negative about everything. It gets old. 

 

Its peoples job to build hope for players when they feel that way... how many times have you been wrong about a player? 

 

What a downer. You must be a "ball" at parties...

 

First of all, this isn't a party.  Secondly, did you bother to read the posts that I was reacting to? 

 

If you had you'd have noted the context.  I'm not the one quoting people that say things like that as "experts" while condemning others for merely expressing their opinions.  Talk to NewEra, he's the one that was boasting about Jeremiah, whatever his first name is, and touting him as some expert.  All I did was point out his comments about Oliver and Epenesa.  

 

But while we're at it, and while you seem to be defending him, do you believe that Oliver is a "nightmare" for opposing Ds?  Or that Epenesa was the "best value" pick of the 2nd round of his Draft?   We all know that's ridiculous. 

 

If not, perhaps take it up with NewEra, he made the claim, not me.  I was simply pointing out that most of these so-called "experts" all essentially mimic the same thing, few dare to step out of the mainstream thought process, and almost none have done any significant amount of their own research on players, which is incredibly time-consuming if done properly.  I'm sorry that you have difficulty processing that, truly.  Perhaps learn to not take things so seriously.  

 

Otherwise, the person he was deferring to was wrong on the first two and only two assessments I looked back on.  My opinions at that time were on point, not that I care as I wasn't the one assaulting someone's character.  Make of it what you will, but that was the context of it.  

 

I'm sorry you're so crushed by opinions that don't have everyone we sign being instrumental in our future success or otherwise up for MVP.  That's gotta be rough being so upset over stuff like that.  

 

As to being wrong, everyone's wrong sometimes, some more than others.  You know that.  I'm very comfortable in the analysis of players that I look into and I provide far more detailed info to support them than almost everyone.  I realize it's not always going to be popular, but I don't care.  But consider, how many times has the majority of the forum here been wrong, particularly regarding drafted players, as if popular opinion factors into the results or something.  Especially given Beane's drafts, which the NFL world knows haven't been good.  The forum is for discussing things regarding the team.  I thought that included unfavorable aspects as well, and not merely when it's obvious to a blind and deaf man.  

 

Either way, I'm sorry you take things so hard, when replying to you in the future I'll try to remember to soften my positions for you.  

 

 

 

 

 

[akm0404]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You know we were 9th in RZ offense right? And would have been higher if Josh wasn’t tossing them into linebackers’ chests?

I’ll take your word for it, but there is no universe where last year’s Buffalo Bills were nearly good, creative, and multiple enough in goal-to-go situations, and I assume you’d agree. I hope this helps, because Andy Reid and the Chiefs have a huge edge on us there (and not in many other spots imo). 

Edited May 2, 2023 by akm0404

[DCofNC]

I wouldn’t expect eye popping numbers from Kindcaid.  My real hope is he makes the passing game better in December when the 50 yard pass is tougher and everyone knows it.   Relying on one WR, who they had running deeper routes, when the OL was failing, in garbage conditions, required perfection.  My hope is the game plan can shift a bit and we can get those 5-10 yard passes that just move the ball.  Coupled with a little help blocking in the run game and let’s not forget they could also use Knox in a similar fashion.  It might make life easier when it matters.  That said, if he gets more than 40 catches this year, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You know we were 9th in RZ offense right? And would have been higher if Josh wasn’t tossing them into linebackers’ chests?

And part of why he was throwing them into Lbs chests is because our red zone offense wasn’t great.  It was pretty good- but clear room for improvement. 
 

We led the league in red zone scoring last season under Brian Daboll.  Daboll goes to the giants, who were LAST in the league last season.  This year, they were 4th.  We were clearly not the well oiled red zone machine we were last season

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And part of why he was throwing them into Lbs chests is because our red zone offense wasn’t great.  It was pretty good- but clear room for improvement. 
 

We led the league in red zone scoring last season under Brian Daboll.  Daboll goes to the giants, who were LAST in the league last season.  This year, they were 4th.  We were clearly not the well oiled red zone machine we were last season

Agreed. 

[PrimeTime101]

48 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

First of all, this isn't a party.  Secondly, did you bother to read the posts that I was reacting to? 

 

If you had you'd have noted the context.  I'm not the one quoting people that say things like that as "experts" while condemning others for merely expressing their opinions.  Talk to NewEra, he's the one that was boasting about Jeremiah, whatever his first name is, and touting him as some expert.  All I did was point out his comments about Oliver and Epenesa.  

 

But while we're at it, and while you seem to be defending him, do you believe that Oliver is a "nightmare" for opposing Ds?  Or that Epenesa was the "best value" pick of the 2nd round of his Draft?   We all know that's ridiculous. 

 

If not, perhaps take it up with NewEra, he made the claim, not me.  I was simply pointing out that most of these so-called "experts" all essentially mimic the same thing, few dare to step out of the mainstream thought process, and almost none have done any significant amount of their own research on players, which is incredibly time-consuming if done properly.  I'm sorry that you have difficulty processing that, truly.  Perhaps learn to not take things so seriously.  

 

Otherwise, the person he was deferring to was wrong on the first two and only two assessments I looked back on.  My opinions at that time were on point, not that I care as I wasn't the one assaulting someone's character.  Make of it what you will, but that was the context of it.  

 

I'm sorry you're so crushed by opinions that don't have everyone we sign being instrumental in our future success or otherwise up for MVP.  That's gotta be rough being so upset over stuff like that.  

 

As to being wrong, everyone's wrong sometimes, some more than others.  You know that.  I'm very comfortable in the analysis of players that I look into and I provide far more detailed info to support them than almost everyone.  I realize it's not always going to be popular, but I don't care.  But consider, how many times has the majority of the forum here been wrong, particularly regarding drafted players, as if popular opinion factors into the results or something.  Especially given Beane's drafts, which the NFL world knows haven't been good.  The forum is for discussing things regarding the team.  I thought that included unfavorable aspects as well, and not merely when it's obvious to a blind and deaf man.  

 

Either way, I'm sorry you take things so hard, when replying to you in the future I'll try to remember to soften my positions for you.  

 

NA, what you ae doing is trying to force your opinion on everyone else.  Not upset. stating facts. You took this way further than NewEra. I have a ton of respect for him. HE gives his opinions without having to force it onto others. I have the right to my opinion. you to yours. But don't tell me how I should "feel"

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

NA, what you ae doing is trying to force your opinion on everyone else.  Not upset. stating facts. You took this way further than NewEra. I have a ton of respect for him. HE gives his opinions without having to force it onto others. I have the right to my opinion. you to yours. But don't tell me how I should "feel"

 

I don't care if people agree.  Therefore I'm not forcing anything.  I also ackowledge that they are my opinions, but let's not say that as if what everyone else here says is something other than their opinions.  LOL  Some opinions are more based on facts and substance than others.  Right?  

 

And yes, you do have a right to your opinion, but let's both remember that it is also your opinion, not absolute fact any more than anyone else's is.  Or am I wrong on that?   When you make a statement like the one that you made below, then essentially what you're saying is that you have no respect for anyone else's opinion if it doesn't align with your own or otherwise with your expectations of a topic.  Isn't that more or less forcing your opinion on others?  Just asking a question, but seems to me that it is.  

 

Also not telling you how to do anything.  Nothing in my post told you how to do anything.  All I did was to validate your being upset at what some others, in this case me, post.  Here's what you said;  

 

Quote

That being said, I am done with the cry baby nay sayers that are so negative about everything. It gets old. 

 

I was simply letting you know that I empathize and I'll try to remember to soften the blow for you and state things less offensively when interacting with you.  I'll try to respect your safe space.  I think that's fair, don't you?  
 

It's not my mission to send people into an emotional tizzy, so I'll do my best to avoid doing that when interacting with you.  I'm not sure what could be more fair than that.  

 

Not trying to rub you wrong here.  But essentially saying that you're tired of anyone's opinion that doesn't agree with yours, while stating that those people force their opinions on you, check me if I'm wrong, but isn't that being a bit hypocritical?  Not sure how to soften the blow on that one?  

 

Anyway, have the last word on this, it's going nowhere.  Again, I'm sorry to have gotten you so upset over football.  Apologies.  

 

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

I don't care if people agree.  Therefore I'm not forcing anything.  I also ackowledge that they are my opinions, but let's not say that as if what everyone else here says is something other than their opinions.  LOL  Some opinions are more based on facts and substance than others.  Right?  

 

And yes, you do have a right to your opinion, but let's both remember that it is also your opinion, not absolute fact any more than anyone else's is.  Or am I wrong on that?   When you make a statement like the one that you made below, then essentially what you're saying is that you have no respect for anyone else's opinion if it doesn't align with your own or otherwise with your expectations of a topic.  Isn't that more or less forcing your opinion on others?  Just asking a question, but seems to me that it is.  

 

Also not telling you how to do anything.  Nothing in my post told you how to do anything.  All I did was to validate your being upset at what some others, in this case me, post.  Here's what you said; 

it does get old. Thanks for understanding my view. and YES to bolded.  I guess I am just so tired of the hate that goes on, on these boards. Maybe you just ended out being the fall out on it for me.. for that I apologize but at the end? I am glad we can talk about it like 2 sensible people.

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I guess I am just so tired of the hate that goes on, on these boards. 

 

That I can fully understand!!  

 

Appreciate the rest!   

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

here is the big banger..

 

Ready for this?

 

Each individual can have what ever expectation they want out of a player, agree or not.. What drives me nuts is people telling other people what they MUST expect and not expect... I find that hysterical. 

 

I think the Kid could cap off his year at 600 yards based on what we have and the variety of ways we can use him. No one is going to ask him to run block. every run down. But lining up on the LOS and chipping a de then running for a rout? That is a typically normal habit of even a receiving TE. You think he will only get 300 yards? that is your opinion but don't tell me what my opinion can or can not be. 

 

Just because the GM says "they both will work well together" does not mean he can not line up on the other side of the LOS, Chip and receive a ball against good DL teams. 

 

 

Based on the way Beane plays rookies along w/ Knox stealing snaps it is perfectly reasonable to not have huge expectations. Nobody is telling u that u can’t have an opinion, but take the past into account. I hope i am wrong 

[PrimeTime101]

33 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Based on the way Beane plays rookies along w/ Knox stealing snaps it is perfectly reasonable to not have huge expectations. Nobody is telling u that u can’t have an opinion, but take the past into account. I hope i am wrong 

Knox got the knox treatment for good reason. Was not getting open, dropping balls... and I think Josh lost a little faith in him even though he had 1 fantastic one handed catch that one game. I think it is not just the player that is coming but the combination of the 2 that can do a ton of damage

 

cheers.

[Zerovoltz]

1st round TE is not typically a good idea......

 

Something of note..A LOT of 1st round TE don't live up to their draft position, and a good number end up being some other teams TE and put up their best numbers on their 2nd team.  Since 2004:

 

Last 20 years of Rd 1 TE

 

2004 

1-6  Kellen Winslow II - Browns

Had a couple of decent seasons with Cleveland with 1 season of over 1000 yards and 5 TD, moved on to the Buccs and equaled his career high 5 TD two more times with them before flaming out and ultimately ending up in prison for being a complete waste of humanity and talent.

 

1-32  Benjamin Watson - Patriots  

Had 5 unremarkable seasons in New England with a few red zone TD's mixed in.  Went on to put up WAY more impressivie numbers for hte Saints AND Ravens in a long, productive career.

 

2005

1-30 Heath Miller - Steelers 

Had a long reasonably productive 10 year career, all with the Steelers.  Never broke 1000 yards or over 8 TD in a season.

 

2006

1-6 Vernon Davis - 49ers

Davis had a long 15 year career, the first 11 with the 49ers.  Never broke 1000 yards, and did have 13 TD seasons two different times, but never more than 7 in any other seasons.  

 

1-28 Mercedes Lewis - Jaguars

Remarkably still playing...but in his career year, he had 58 catches 700 yds and 10 TD in year 5.  Never come remotely close to any of these numbers in any of his other seasons.  

 

2007

1-30 Greg Olson - Bears

Great 13 year career, first 3 unremarkable seasons in Chicago, then took off with Carolina, where he had many brilliant seasons.

 

2008

1-30 Dustin Keller - Jets

Played all 5 seasons of his career in NY...never more than 5 TD in a season, never broke 700 yds.  Blew out his knee, ending career.

 

2009

1-20 Brandon Pettigrew - Lions

Played all 7 seasons with lions...had a couple 700 yard years with 4 and 5 TD respectively.  

 

2010

1-21 Jermain Gresham - Bengals

Played 5 seasons with the Bengals.  Had a 596 yard season wtih 4 TDs and a 700 yard season with 5 TDs his 2nd and 3rd seasons, never broke 400 yards after that, and had one other season with 5 TD. 

 

2011

No TE taken in round 1 

 

2012

No TE taken in round 1

 

2013

1-21 Tyler Eifort - Bengals

Eifort played 8 seasons in the NFL.  in his 3rd season he had 500 yards and 13 TD.  In his other 7 years combined he had 13 TD total.  and never came close to 500 yds etc again either.

 

2014

1-10 Eric Ebron - Lions

Didn't do much in 4 years with Lions, but had a career year in Indianapolis in year 5, with 750 yds and 13 TD.  He never came close to that total in any season prior or after.  

 

2015

No TE taken in round 1

 

2016

No TE taken in round 1

 

2017

1-19 OJ Howard - Buccs  Going on 6 NFL seasons, first 5 with Tampa..rookie year had 6 TD.  2nd season had 5 TD and broke 500 yards...has since fallen off cliff, now in Houston.

 

1=23 Evan Engram - Giants First 5 seasons in New York, had over 700 yds and 6 TDs in rookie year.  Never made it back to those totals until last season, his first in Jacksonville setting career highs in receptions 73 and yards 766 with 4 TD.

 

1-28 David Njokwu - Browns has played all 6 seasons in Cleveland...had a couple of 600 yd, 4 TD seasons, in 2018 and 2022.  Other seasons are unproductive. Missed many games to injury over the years and has never played a full season.

 

2018

1-25 Hayden Hurst - Ravens Had 2 very invisable seasons in Baltimore....overshadowed and beaten out be Marc Andrews, drafted in round 3 of the same draft.  After 2 years was traded to Atlanta where he had career high 56 catches 571 and 6 TD.  hasn't come close to matching that, and is now on his 3rd team in Cincy.

 

2019  

1-8 TJ Hockenson - Lions Played 3 and half seasons with Detroit...best year with lions was 2nd year over 700 yds, 6 TD.  Half season with Lions and other half with Vikings, Hockens on 88 catches 800 yds 6TD.  poised to be better with 2nd team.

 

1-20 Noah Fant - Broncos.  Hockensons teammate at Iowa.  Had a pair of 650 plus 4 TD seasons his 2nd and 3rd year in Denver before being traded to Seahawks in Wilson trade.  Had 500 and 4 TD season in first year with Seattle

 

2020

No TE Taken in round 1

 

2021

1-4 Kyle Pitts - Falcons  Had decent rookie season.  1st round 1 TE to break 1000 yards in rookie year for this whole list.  68 catches, but only 1 TD.  2nd year in 10 games played only 28 catches, 2 TD.  

 

2022

No TE Selected in round 1

 

2023

Dalton Kincaid - Bills

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Zerovoltz

[Chicken Boo]

11 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

This is some kind of garbage right here.. 

 

You guys never learn.

[PrimeTime101]

4 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

You guys never learn.

"You guys" ? what that supposed to mean? 

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

1st round TE is not typically a good idea......

 

Something of note..A LOT of 1st round TE don't live up to their draft position, and a good number end up being some other teams TE and put up their best numbers on their 2nd team.  Since 2004:

 

Last 20 years of Rd 1 TE

 

2004 

1-6  Kellen Winslow II - Browns

Had a couple of decent seasons with Cleveland with 1 season of over 1000 yards and 5 TD, moved on to the Buccs and equaled his career high 5 TD two more times with them before flaming out and ultimately ending up in prison for being a complete waste of humanity and talent.

 

1-32  Benjamin Watson - Patriots  

Had 5 unremarkable seasons in New England with a few red zone TD's mixed in.  Went on to put up WAY more impressivie numbers for hte Saints AND Ravens in a long, productive career.

 

2005

1-30 Heath Miller - Steelers 

Had a long reasonably productive 10 year career, all with the Steelers.  Never broke 1000 yards or over 8 TD in a season.

 

2006

1-6 Vernon Davis - 49ers

Davis had a long 15 year career, the first 11 with the 49ers.  Never broke 1000 yards, and did have 13 TD seasons two different times, but never more than 7 in any other seasons.  

 

1-28 Mercedes Lewis - Jaguars

Remarkably still playing...but in his career year, he had 58 catches 700 yds and 10 TD in year 5.  Never come remotely close to any of these numbers in any of his other seasons.  

 

2007

1-30 Greg Olson - Bears

Great 13 year career, first 3 unremarkable seasons in Chicago, then took off with Carolina, where he had many brilliant seasons.

 

2008

1-30 Dustin Keller - Jets

Played all 5 seasons of his career in NY...never more than 5 TD in a season, never broke 700 yds.  Blew out his knee, ending career.

 

2009

1-20 Brandon Pettigrew - Lions

Played all 7 seasons with lions...had a couple 700 yard years with 4 and 5 TD respectively.  

 

2010

1-21 Jermain Gresham - Bengals

Played 5 seasons with the Bengals.  Had a 596 yard season wtih 4 TDs and a 700 yard season with 5 TDs his 2nd and 3rd seasons, never broke 400 yards after that, and had one other season with 5 TD. 

 

2011

No TE taken in round 1 

 

2012

No TE taken in round 1

 

2013

1-21 Tyler Eifort - Bengals

Eifort played 8 seasons in the NFL.  in his 3rd season he had 500 yards and 13 TD.  In his other 7 years combined he had 13 TD total.  and never came close to 500 yds etc again either.

 

2014

1-10 Eric Ebron - Lions

Didn't do much in 4 years with Lions, but had a career year in Indianapolis in year 5, with 750 yds and 13 TD.  He never came close to that total in any season prior or after.  

 

2015

No TE taken in round 1

 

2016

No TE taken in round 1

 

2017

1-19 OJ Howard - Buccs  Going on 6 NFL seasons, first 5 with Tampa..rookie year had 6 TD.  2nd season had 5 TD and broke 500 yards...has since fallen off cliff, now in Houston.

 

1=23 Evan Engram - Giants First 5 seasons in New York, had over 700 yds and 6 TDs in rookie year.  Never made it back to those totals until last season, his first in Jacksonville setting career highs in receptions 73 and yards 766 with 4 TD.

 

1-28 David Njokwu - Browns has played all 6 seasons in Cleveland...had a couple of 600 yd, 4 TD seasons, in 2018 and 2022.  Other seasons are unproductive. Missed many games to injury over the years and has never played a full season.

 

2018

1-25 Hayden Hurst - Ravens Had 2 very invisable seasons in Baltimore....overshadowed and beaten out be Marc Andrews, drafted in round 3 of the same draft.  After 2 years was traded to Atlanta where he had career high 56 catches 571 and 6 TD.  hasn't come close to matching that, and is now on his 3rd team in Cincy.

 

2019  

1-8 TJ Hockenson - Lions Played 3 and half seasons with Detroit...best year with lions was 2nd year over 700 yds, 6 TD.  Half season with Lions and other half with Vikings, Hockens on 88 catches 800 yds 6TD.  poised to be better with 2nd team.

 

1-20 Noah Fant - Broncos.  Hockensons teammate at Iowa.  Had a pair of 650 plus 4 TD seasons his 2nd and 3rd year in Denver before being traded to Seahawks in Wilson trade.  Had 500 and 4 TD season in first year with Seattle

 

2020

No TE Taken in round 1

 

2021

1-4 Kyle Pitts - Falcons  Had decent rookie season.  1st round 1 TE to break 1000 yards in rookie year for this whole list.  68 catches, but only 1 TD.  2nd year in 10 games played only 28 catches, 2 TD.  

 

2022

No TE Selected in round 1

 

2023

Dalton Kincaid - Bills

 

 

 

 

 

 

Says the man with Travis Kelce on his roster. Betcha the Chiefs would have loved to add him. Just to take the most recent example, Kyle Pitts was injured much of the time and when he wasn't he had terrible qbs throwing him the ball. The situation you find yourself in is a significant factor. Putting Kincaid on that list doesn't change the fact that one has to assess the individual as well as trends and if one concludes the individual possesses rare gifts, take the shot. He's going to emulate the player next to Mahomes most responsible for the success of your team (along with Andy Reid calling plays.) But I guess we could have waited and taken Mazi Smith.

 

 

 

 

[ddaryl]

If Kincaid is going to act like a saftey valve for Allen by design, then I expect him to actually get more catched than Knox this year

I believe Kincaid will surpass 30 catches this year and will grab closer to 50+. It comes down to Dorsey's X's and O's and how quickly the chemistry between him and Allen happens... If Kincaid can find the holes is the D and be that safety valve like Beasley use to be capable of then he can become our 2nd best receiver this year IMO

[Einstein's Dog]

10 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Based on the way Beane plays rookies along w/ Knox stealing snaps it is perfectly reasonable to not have huge expectations. Nobody is telling u that u can’t have an opinion, but take the past into account. I hope i am wrong 

Actually part of the value of the OP is that people such as yourself should be able to temper expectations without blaming the coaches (and what is with blaming Beane for the rookies playing times?)  Look at the OP stats, very very few TEs explode in stats their rookie year.

 

Secondly, traditionally if done right, the draft is supposed to be used for the future.  Beane got Dorsey/Josh a great pass catcher to have for at least the next four years.

[Chicken Boo]

3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

"You guys" ? what that supposed to mean? 

 

A tight end is not going to come in here, as a rookie, and post stellar numbers.  

 

People are expecting peak production out of a guy that will be limited by inexperience at the pro level and a questionable coaching staff.

 

Temper expectations, is all I'm saying. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

A tight end is not going to come in here, as a rookie, and post stellar numbers.  

 

People are expecting peak production out of a guy that will be limited by inexperience at the pro level and a questionable coaching staff.

 

Temper expectations, is all I'm saying. 

 

Here's the thing - he will be a contributor.  As much as any 1st round WR probably would have seen on a prior year playoff team.  

[ColoradoBills]

15 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

here is the big banger..

 

Ready for this?

 

Each individual can have what ever expectation they want out of a player, agree or not.. What drives me nuts is people telling other people what they MUST expect and not expect... I find that hysterical. 

 

I think the Kid could cap off his year at 600 yards based on what we have and the variety of ways we can use him. No one is going to ask him to run block. every run down. But lining up on the LOS and chipping a de then running for a rout? That is a typically normal habit of even a receiving TE. You think he will only get 300 yards? that is your opinion but don't tell me what my opinion can or can not be. 

 

Just because the GM says "they both will work well together" does not mean he can not line up on the other side of the LOS, Chip and receive a ball against good DL teams. 

 

 

 

I too believe that once he gets rolling that a season between 500-600 is likely.  That's good numbers for a rookie.

What is not mentioned much in this post is what defenses will need to do to adjust to defend him.

It could easily mean that Dawson Knox is lost in the mix and finds a few more balls too.

 

I find it funny that there has been a lot of 400 or less and 800 or more talk.  I think our numbers are more realistic.

[billsfan89]

I think the impact will be solid 500ish yards 5ish TD's which will be a nice addition to the offense as I don't think his production will come at the expense of Knox who I also think will have 500-600 yards and 5ish TD's similar to his last two seasons. Getting 1000 yards from two TE's combined as opposed to the 625 yards the Bills got from Knox/Morris last season is a solid boost to the offense. 

 

The Bills will need to see more production from Shakir and Davis (along with Hines who will be there the whole season) while hoping Hardy can surpass what Mac gave the team last season. If all those things fall together and the Bills can still get 1200+ yards from Diggs as a WR1 I think the offense will be much better and more balanced. 

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

A tight end is not going to come in here, as a rookie, and post stellar numbers.  

 

People are expecting peak production out of a guy that will be limited by inexperience at the pro level and a questionable coaching staff.

 

Temper expectations, is all I'm saying. 

I will decide for myself if i wish to temper expectations or not, ty very much..

4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I too believe that once he gets rolling that a season between 500-600 is likely.  That's good numbers for a rookie.

What is not mentioned much in this post is what defenses will need to do to adjust to defend him.

It could easily mean that Dawson Knox is lost in the mix and finds a few more balls too.

 

I find it funny that there has been a lot of 400 or less and 800 or more talk.  I think our numbers are more realistic.

I agree. Thank You!