2023 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

First of all, apologies to those who missed me in the live draft thread last night. Was a bit of a case of life getting in the way yesterday and I ended up watching day 2 at my partner's without access to my full board and the setup I have at home for tracking the picks, updating this place and watching what's going on. Normal service will be resumed on day 3 - although appreciate from a Bills perspective that might not be a very busy day! So let's get down to what happened on day 2!

 

The Bills Picks...

First things first the Bills, having traded up at the cost of their 4th rounder on day one, stood pat and executed their original picks in both spots. In the second round they snagged O'Cyrus Torrence the huge guard out of Florida. He was my 36th overall player, and at the point he was selected he was 6th best available by my board and the second best available offensive player behind Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. In fact those two were kind of our on their own on the offensive side for me as by the time the Bills went on the clock the 2nd round offensive talent was all but hollowed out. So in principle, talent and value at #59, there is much to like about this pick. Torrence is a beast in the run game, and he didn't allow a single sack in college. He also (as was touched on in Beane's presser) has experience blocking for an athletic Quarterback who likes to extend plays in Anthony Richardson (and who in my write up on Richardson I made the point does not scramble in a way that makes it easy on his guys because he is so unpredictable). I think that experience will assist him in transitioning to the Bills. He was my second rated guard overall (behind Skoronski) and my third overall interior offensive lineman. He can start and be good as a rookie and on an offensive line that has had its struggles inside over the past few years McGovern, Morse, Bates, Boettger, Edwards and Torrence suddenly looks like a strength of the roster going into camp. I'd expect McGovern and Torrence to emerge as the starting guards. The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge. The one thing that reassures me is the Bills had Torrence in, Aaron Kromer worked him out and he has presumably signed off on this pick. I still think despite the struggles last year that Kromer can coach. If he thinks he can make this work I'm willing to trust him. The second minor concern with the pick is positional value. It's a guard with a premium pick. I'd have been tempted to go weapon again with Hyatt but I have said all draft season that in a weaker class I'm about targeting guys you really like a bit less than I am about positional value. Tight End and Guard would not normally float my boat... but we all knew they needed to upgrade Josh's weapons and his protection and to that end they are 2 for 2. Hard to complain too much about that. 

 

Onto round 3 where the Bills, for the second year running, snagged a linebacker. At least this year it was a guy I had heard of and evaluated. In terms of my grads Dorian Williams was a top 100 player and was the 20th best available by my board when selected. I had borderline 3rd/4th round grade on him, so value where selected I was fine with. There was a lot of talk about where the value of the board might be by this pick in the run up to the draft and personally I thought edge might be in play but my edge depth was wiped out by #91 and while there are a few guys knocking about I'd consider on day 3 my board is now very thin at the position. I have seen a lot of talk since the pick was made about Williams being the Tremaine Edmunds replacement though.... and I am not sure that is the player he is. To me he is more Milano than Edmunds. He possesses great speed, can run side to side and can cover as well as some safeties. But he isn't big by NFL linebacking standards and he doesn't play with the requisite power to be a difference maker at the point of contact coming downhill. Brandon Beane said last night that he agrees and they see Williams as an "outside guy" in year 1. Which I suppose did make me question what the answer for Tremaine's spot is. Conventional wisdom says that Bernard, Dodson and Klein battle it out. But if your rookie has to play outside day 1 could Matt Milano play inside? The Bills have done it before - noticeable with Lorenzo Alexander in that playoff game in Jacksonville - where suddenly an outside guy ran the defense. Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side? Questions indeed. But basically I think Williams can be an impactful NFL player down the road as a modern, undersized linebacker that Sean McDermott has had success with over the years. 

 

So both of the picks in isolation I see the reasoning and I don't dislike either. I do, however, wonder strategically whether I'd have played it the other way. Had I been in the live thread last night when we went on the clock in round 2 I'd have had good money on Trenton Simpson or Drew Sanders being the pick. I don't think any of us foresaw both of those players making it to #59. Indeed, I did a mock on one of the simulators the other day where Simpson and Campbell both fell and I ignored them as I felt two of the top three linebackers getting to #59 was unrealistic - shows what I know! I am not doubting that Torrence was right up there on the Bills board when they selected him. Like I said above he was right up there on mine too, but I suspect the linebackers were there somewhere too. But I wonder if they looked at it and said "hang on, Simpson, Sanders, Henley and Williams are all still there" (Henry To'o To'o is too, though not sure they Bills have shown even a passing interest in him) and felt like they could wait on linebacker until round 3, whereas in terms of offensive line Bergeron, Avila, Schmitz, Tippman and Mauch had all gone off the board and the remaining depth was thinner. In hindsight I'd have preferred Simpson or Sanders and then Chandler Zavala (who is still there) at the end of the 3rd I think, because you'd have had your starter at linebacker alongside Milano but I get it hindsight is 20/20 and again, I find it hard to be too critical of an approach that has focused on Josh and the offense. That has been long overdue. 

 

How we approach day 3 will be fascinating. Not sure there is a single position they "have to have" at this point so they can follow the board. But dline, safety and another receiver are where I'll be keeping an eye. Beane said last night receiver and corner is where the remaining depth looks best. My board is pretty similar if I expand corner out to defensive back to include safeties (on which more below). 

 

What about the other 31...

I suppose I should start where the second round started with the Steelers and the fairytale with Joey Porter Jnr. Not only is that a great story but they got a genuine top 15 player in this class at the start of round 2. Exceptional value. I am not, as readers of my thoughts this spring will know, the biggest fan of their next two picks - Keeanu Benton at defensive tackle in the 2nd and Darnell Washington at tight end in the 3rd - but they both 'feel' like Steelers to me. Wouldn't be surprised if both were successful in Pittsburgh. The team I though had a slam dunk of a night was Joe Schoen and the New York Football Giants. John Michael Schmitz is a plug and play 8 year starter. An older prospect who will be a leader on that offensive line day 1. Jon Feliciano was their starting center last season and is now in San Francisco. This is a huge upgrade. And then they swung a trade to move up in round 3 and snag Jalin Hyatt who was a top 25 player on my board. They will ultimately have to find a way to upgrade at Quarterback but so far the Schoen - Daboll era in New Jersey has been extremely impressive. A word for the Bengals too. Their defensive backfield lost three starters in Von Bell, Jesse Bates and Eli Apple this spring. DJ Turner might be more of a nickel corner but has some outside ability and was good value at the end of round 2 and then Jordan Battle probably starts as a rookie at strong safety. A couple of teams who left me scratching my head on day 2 - I know some people here love Jonathan Mingo, but I don't. The Panthers reached on him and then reached again with DJ Johnson in round 3, a former tight end turned edge rusher who will turn 25 early in his rookie season. The Packers took two tight ends (your guess is as good as mine) and a small, not particularly explosive, slot receiver in Jayden Reed who to my eye has the talent of a day 3 pick. There used to be a time when the Packers were good at drafting. Can anyone remember that far back? I'd also throw the Chiefs in the list of teams who I don't think have had the best draft so far. It felt a bit like they got a consolation prize in Anudike-Uzomah at the end of the first (though I like the player) they traded up in round 2 for Rashee Rice, who had a poor draft season despite solid tape at SMU but doesn't strike me as their "type" of receiver and then their desperation at tackle showed at the end of round 3 when they jumped up again for Wanya Morris. I confess Morris isn't a guy I watched a lot of and he does feel like a high risk but high reward selection. Their tackle situation would remain a serious concern for me heading into the season if I were a Chiefs fan. 

 

My other overall conclusion on day 2 was the general consensus lasted longer than I expected. By the end of the second round only one player not on my board had gone (Brenton Strange) and he was a "didn't have time to get to" rather than a guy I watched and dismissed (sidenote - 9 tight ends in the first 101 picks - wow). In round 3 there were 10 guys I hadn't got on the board - but four of those were the last four comp picks of the round. So actually despite the relative weakness of this draft the consensus over who the top 100 or so guys are has held pretty well. Which brings me to...

 

What's left?

I have 46 players left on my board heading into day 3... and by that the best 15 remaining are:

 

1. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

2. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

3. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

4. Andrew Vorhees*, IOL, USC

5. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

6. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern

7. Christopher Smith, S, Georgia

8. Chandler Zavala, IOL, North Carolina Stata

9. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland

10. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama

11. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama

12. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State

13. Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame

14. Henry To'o To'o, LB, Alabama

15. Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU

 

As you can see offensive line and secondary heavy at this stage... there is a batch of receivers just outside that group too. Those are the spots where I expect early day 3 runs.

 

Enjoy folks!

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloBillyG]

Excellent write up. 

 

For me, last night's picks were about 2 things. Roster flexibility and scheme flexibility.

 

My eyes are now firmly on the IOL in camp. I have to believe McGovern starts at LG. This leaves RG as a battle between Torrence, Bates and Edwards. If Edwards regains his early career form under Kromer and Torrence shows well as a rookie...could it spell they end for Mitch Morse in Buffalo? I think they would be good with Bates sliding to center and playing next to his old college teammate. A post June 1st cut of Morse clears $8M in cap space for the year. Not saying it will or even should be the play...but the options are certainly there.

 

Williams in the 3rd gives the Bills more flexibility to show some 4-3 looks, perhaps. With his coverage skills he may even fit as a "big nickel" if needed. There are a lot of ways he can be used. Sure he will get worked in on special teams as well. Maybe not a name we were all familiar with...but he looks like he can be used a lot of different ways. Plus we still get a LB with long dread locks. 

 

So far, what Beane has said all pre draft has held true. No replacement for Brown or Davis. They genuinely feel they can take steps forward this year. Edmunds replacement is on the roster. What I'm watching for is Beane to start looking for the future now. He's talked about the lack of DT being signed for next year's roster and I see that being addressed today. I think safety is also a spot we get a look at as well. 

 

Thus far very happy with the draft. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Agree with all of your thoughts.  The mix-and-match approach to the o-line is so confounding, is Beane one of those people who goes to the movies and dumps his M&M’s and nachos into his popcorn?  That’s how they approach the offensive line but at least, as you point out, they’re making it a priority.

 

Agree also that Milano likely mans the middle absent any further additions there.

[Dave_Bills]

Great write up as always. One thing that caught my eye is your valuation on Notre Dame safety Brandon Joseph. As an Irish fan after watching him this season, I struggled to believe he is anything other than a late round/priority selection.

 

I’m not sure if it was a case of learning a new defence after transitioning from Northwestern to ND but I’ve never seen anyone look so lost in coverage/look a lot slower than he should be.

 

he was supposed to be a huge pickup but largely disappointed. His declaration for the draft was even more surprising after he had a poor combine (my memory might be hazy on this but I thought I remember he tested poorly).

 

I’m not a talent evaluator to any extent and he could certainly prove me wrong but after watching him last season I thought his only hope was special teams as his safety play left a lot to be desired

[AmishRifle]

@GunnerBill I think your points on the O-line are spot on!  We need to pick a direction and go with it.  The “consistency” that we’ve had with coaches and scheme hasn’t translated into a coherent plan for the line.  Very puzzling.  Thanks for your write ups.  They are great reads and I enjoy them very much.

[LyndonvilleBill]

Great writeup as always.

 

I do wonder if they are looking at pairing G & T? For instance Dawkins and McGovern are better at pass blocking and Brown and Torrence being better for run blocking. Then have a more athletic C to use for pulling (Morse/Bates)? Just thinking out loud here.🤔

[MasterStrategist]

Thanks @GunnerBill, excellent post as always!

 

1. Oline identity: Agree there isn't much of an identity, but do think they have more scheme versatile guys than we give credit for.  But bottom line (regardless of scheme/identity), they are trying to find OGs that can "anchor" the middle on pass pro and get enough movement to generate a better inside run game.  Beane specifically mentioned McGoverns ability to anchor/pass pro, and that's also a high quality for Torrence.

 

2. Williams pick: 100% agree he looks the part of Milano, and perhaps indicates some more 4-3/big nickle looks.  Nobody should expect McD to run back the same cover 2/all 4-2-5 def looks that Frazier ran.  Coach is going to be more aggressive/creative, and this adds an athletic piece to the options.  Great mention of Zo's use, think we can get back to more rotational LB looks this season (Milano 3 downs, rotate others)

 

3. Remaining draft: 1 thing I know is Beane/Coach like to add a secondary player each draft. And they've been mostly successful with late rounders...leads me to think CB is 1 pick today.  I'd like to see a 1-tech DT drafted, but there are a few WR prospects that might be better value.  I'll guess we draft a CB and DT today (super bold 😁)

[NeverOutNick]

I slept and have a cooler head today. I absolutely still LOVE our first 2 picks as they immediately help Josh and the offense. 

 

Now to the 3rd round:

 

Beane screwed up (period)

 

Williams is a fine LB prospect and as a player I actually like his potential BUT it was a reach and still feels like a move Beane made because McDermott was in his ear instead of sticking to his board.

 

I didn’t want a LB at all in the 3rd round because there were and still are better players at different positions with higher upside and imo more immediate impact to the starting lineup (not special teams again McD). 
 

I would’ve understood trading our 6th to move up a couple spots for Simpson if they “had to” go LB at this spot because his upside is huge but unlike @GunnerBill I still don’t think it was needed because McD is going to be using Rapp a lot in his LB/S hybrid scheme imo. 
 

I know our evals on players are not the same but 2 guys that 100% imo that will immediately be impact players with high upside at their positions we’re right there for the taking in Clark Phillips III and Michael Wilson. 
 

Even if they didn’t like those 2 (which is mind boggling because of their potential to be stars), I find it hard to believe he didn’t have a number of O lineman rated higher on his board than WIlliams. O lineman that would’ve been long term starters when Morse retires and if Browns sucks again (Zavala, Duncan, D Jones, Vorhees, Freeland)

 

If we somehow trade our 6th for Hopkins then all is forgiven lol but right now my gut tells me Beane got flustered and reached on a kid that won’t be in our starting lineup (hopefully I’m wrong) instead of taking potential stars (Phillips III or Wilson) or filling o line trenches even more when that’s where the value was

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I slept and have a cooler head today. I absolutely still LOVE our first 2 picks as they immediately help Josh and the offense. 

 

Now to the 3rd round:

 

Beane screwed up (period)

 

Williams is a fine LB prospect and as a player I actually like his potential BUT it was a reach and still feels like a move Beane made because McDermott was in his ear instead of sticking to his board.

 

I didn’t want a LB at all in the 3rd round because there were and still are better players at different positions with higher upside and imo more immediate impact to the starting lineup (not special teams again McD). 
 

I would’ve understood trading our 6th to move up a couple spots for Simpson if they “had to” go LB at this spot because his upside is huge but unlike @GunnerBill I still don’t think it was needed because McD is going to be using Rapp a lot in his LB/S hybrid scheme imo. 
 

I know our evals on players are not the same but 2 guys that 100% imo that will immediately be impact players with high upside at their positions we’re right there for the taking in Clark Phillips III and Michael Wilson. 
 

Even if they didn’t like those 2 (which is mind boggling because of their potential to be stars), I find it hard to believe he didn’t have a number of O lineman rated higher on his board than WIlliams. O lineman that would’ve been long term starters when Morse retires and if Browns sucks again (Zavala, Duncan, D Jones, Vorhees, Freeland)

 

If we somehow trade our 6th for Hopkins then all is forgiven lol but right now my gut tells me Beane got flustered and reached on a kid that won’t be in our starting lineup (hopefully I’m wrong) instead of taking potential stars (Phillips III or Wilson) or filling o line trenches even more when that’s where the value was

Let's all wait and see how Coach uses these guys, before we get too upset.

 

If Frazier was still coaching this defense, I'd 100% agree.  But I'm expecting a more creative/hybrid defensive looks, as you mention (mostly on passing downs).  It's good to have highly athletic LBs that can cover/blitz

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, Dave_Bills said:

Great write up as always. One thing that caught my eye is your valuation on Notre Dame safety Brandon Joseph. As an Irish fan after watching him this season, I struggled to believe he is anything other than a late round/priority selection.

 

I’m not sure if it was a case of learning a new defence after transitioning from Northwestern to ND but I’ve never seen anyone look so lost in coverage/look a lot slower than he should be.

 

he was supposed to be a huge pickup but largely disappointed. His declaration for the draft was even more surprising after he had a poor combine (my memory might be hazy on this but I thought I remember he tested poorly).

 

I’m not a talent evaluator to any extent and he could certainly prove me wrong but after watching him last season I thought his only hope was special teams as his safety play left a lot to be desired

 

Thanks. Always appreciate insight from fans of teams because you will have seen him more than I have. I still think there is a high ceiling there. But I agree just on the ND tape there are some questions. I think the scheme exposed him as well though. 

 

[Momma Pecoraro]

 

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

 

I know our evals on players are not the same but 2 guys that 100% imo that will immediately be impact players with high upside at their positions we’re right there for the taking in Clark Phillips III and Michael Wilson. 

 

I agree on Phillips. I would have taken Johnson or Phillips there because they are sticking out on my board. I had Wilson just about Williams too (although I like him less than you). 

 

If they don't think Williams can play MLB (and Beane says they don't) then I don't think it had to be the choice. That was my point on strategy. I get that they have a need at LB. Had they gone one of the two guys who could potentially plug it in round 2 I'd have been more content than going someone who by their own admission can't in the 3rd.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

They will ultimately have to find a way to upgrade at Quarterback but so far the Schoen - Daboll era in New Jersey has been extremely impressive.

 

 

🔥🔥Hot take Gunner! 🔥🔥

 

They are tied to Jones for at least the next two seasons. Obviously the Daboll and Schoen are higher on Jones then most of us. I will say, given the state of the QB position in the NFC, Jones could certainly be "good enough". Heck, I could see him being a top 5 QB in the conference. The Giants are doing a great job building the rest of the roster which i love to see given their Buffalo connections. 

 

I think Jones is still a sleeper to ultimately pan out and be the Giants long term QB. In his first year with Daboll he improved across the board. He did not have a Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts meteoric rise, but it was still improvement across the board.  And besides Saquan, the Giants offense was still most likely lacking play makers at receiver and quality o-lineman. I would suspect Jones takes another step forward this year, and if he does, I think he solidly cements himself as the guy for the long-term. 

 

If the Giants were in the AFC they would have a QB problem. But in the NFC Jones will definitely be good enough. 

[Mat68]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Excellent write up. 

 

For me, last night's picks were about 2 things. Roster flexibility and scheme flexibility.

 

My eyes are now firmly on the IOL in camp. I have to believe McGovern starts at LG. This leaves RG as a battle between Torrence, Bates and Edwards. If Edwards regains his early career form under Kromer and Torrence shows well as a rookie...could it spell they end for Mitch Morse in Buffalo? I think they would be good with Bates sliding to center and playing next to his old college teammate. A post June 1st cut of Morse clears $8M in cap space for the year. Not saying it will or even should be the play...but the options are certainly there.

 

Williams in the 3rd gives the Bills more flexibility to show some 4-3 looks, perhaps. With his coverage skills he may even fit as a "big nickel" if needed. There are a lot of ways he can be used. Sure he will get worked in on special teams as well. Maybe not a name we were all familiar with...but he looks like he can be used a lot of different ways. Plus we still get a LB with long dread locks. 

 

So far, what Beane has said all pre draft has held true. No replacement for Brown or Davis. They genuinely feel they can take steps forward this year. Edmunds replacement is on the roster. What I'm watching for is Beane to start looking for the future now. He's talked about the lack of DT being signed for next year's roster and I see that being addressed today. I think safety is also a spot we get a look at as well. 

 

Thus far very happy with the draft. 

They are completely differant players but one thing both guards invested in this offseason have in common is anchor.  Both Mcgovern and Torrance have great anchors in pass pro.  I think Bates moves back to utility 6th Lineman.   

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

They are completely differant players but one thing both guards invested in this offseason have in common is anchor.  Both Mcgovern and Torrance have great anchors in pass pro.  I think Bates moves back to utility 6th Lineman.   

Agree 100%. Both McGovern and Torrence excell in pass pro. Josh may actually have some time. What will help is that if Brown is the RT and is struggling, the RB can help chip on his guy and not have to worry as much about a DT blasting up the middle .3 seconds after the snap. That would help get Knox off the line sooner as well. A HUGE chain reaction of events.

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge. The one thing that reassures me is the Bills had Torrence in, Aaron Kromer worked him out and he has presumably signed off on this pick. I still think despite the struggles last year that Kromer can coach. If he thinks he can make this work I'm willing to trust him. 

 

I'm confident the OC and OL coach were involved with the pick, though it comes off as a, "you can make this guy work, right?" type thing.  Not saying offensive assistants should have complete say, only that the decision makers should recognize what the offensive vision is and base personnel acquisition around that.    

 

There's advantages and disadvantages with having a defensive-centric HC paired with an admin GM who is evolving.  The Kincaid pick is a statement about being better in the downfield passing game, but Torrance moves in the opposite direction.  

 

I still don't know what their offensive identity is after this draft.  Are they trying to feature a power run option and simultaneously a vertical passing team? I'm not sure that's possible.  Might end up being neither. 

[Big Turk]

 Couldn't love the Torrence pick any more than I do. To get the guy so many had mocked to us at 27 in the 2nd round is just outstanding. Basically I'm like the teacher in Ralphie's dream in the Christmas Story where she just writes A+ + + + + + with an endless stream of + across the board...

Edited April 29, 2023 by Big Turk

[No_Matter_What]

As for Torrence - I understand your concern, but there really should be one. If he is as good as borderline 1st round pick, we just have to find the way to use him. Period. Adjust scheme if need be.

 

I for one LOVE that we tried to bolster Oline. I couldn't be happier with our first two picks.

 

Williams - hate the approach. Did someone ask Beane if he was BPA? I am not able to evaluate player myself, but my approach is following - if he was BPA in their eyes, then fine, even if he won't replace Edmunds, or if we are not sure how to use him. But if he wasn't, and we reached for "need", and we are not even sure if he fits the need, then it is an awful way how to build the roster. And I don't care about Bernard. If we made mistake with Bernard, I am completely fine with them admiting so and drafting another guy. All I care is proper roster building strategy, and that does not include reaching for need.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

As for Torrence - I understand your concern, but there really should be one. If he is as good as borderline 1st round pick, we just have to find the way to use him. Period. Adjust scheme if need be.

 

I for one LOVE that we tried to bolster Oline. I couldn't be happier with our first two picks.

 

Williams - hate the approach. Did someone ask Beane if he was BPA? I am not able to evaluate player myself, but my approach is following - if he was BPA in their eyes, then fine, even if he won't replace Edmunds, or if we are not sure how to use him. But if he wasn't, and we reached for "need", and we are not even sure if he fits the need, then it is an awful way how to build the roster. And I don't care about Bernard. If we made mistake with Bernard, I am completely fine with them admiting so and drafting another guy. All I care is proper roster building strategy, and that does not include reaching for need.

 

So let me get this straight...you are trying to say the guy who took a dumpster fire of a roster with tons of bad contracts and turned it into one of the best rosters in the NFL in like 3 years doesn't know how to build a roster? 

 

Got it.

 

He is considering things that you don't even know to think of I am pretty sure.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Big Turk

[No_Matter_What]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So let me get this straight...you are trying to say the guy who took a dumpster fire of a roster with tons of bad contracts and turned it into one of the best rosters in the NFL in like 3 years doesn't know how to build a roster? 

 

Got it.

Nope. You misunderstood me or chose the wrong guy to fight with  I love Beane, I love what he has done, I think he is a top 5 GM. I didn't say he doesn't know how to build the roster. I love first two picks this year.

 

I just said I dislike his approach to Williams pick IF he wasn't BPA on their board. That is all. Hope it makes sense.

Edited April 29, 2023 by No_Matter_What

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

First of all, apologies to those who missed me in the live draft thread last night. Was a bit of a case of life getting in the way yesterday and I ended up watching day 2 at my partner's without access to my full board and the setup I have at home for tracking the picks, updating this place and watching what's going on. Normal service will be resumed on day 3 - although appreciate from a Bills perspective that might not be a very busy day! So let's get down to what happened on day 2!

 

The Bills Picks...

First things first the Bills, having traded up at the cost of their 4th rounder on day one, stood pat and executed their original picks in both spots. In the second round they snagged O'Cyrus Torrence the huge guard out of Florida. He was my 36th overall player, and at the point he was selected he was 6th best available by my board and the second best available offensive player behind Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. In fact those two were kind of our on their own on the offensive side for me as by the time the Bills went on the clock the 2nd round offensive talent was all but hollowed out. So in principle, talent and value at #59, there is much to like about this pick. Torrence is a beast in the run game, and he didn't allow a single sack in college. He also (as was touched on in Beane's presser) has experience blocking for an athletic Quarterback who likes to extend plays in Anthony Richardson (and who in my write up on Richardson I made the point does not scramble in a way that makes it easy on his guys because he is so unpredictable). I think that experience will assist him in transitioning to the Bills. He was my second rated guard overall (behind Skoronski) and my third overall interior offensive lineman. He can start and be good as a rookie and on an offensive line that has had its struggles inside over the past few years McGovern, Morse, Bates, Boettger, Edwards and Torrence suddenly looks like a strength of the roster going into camp. I'd expect McGovern and Torrence to emerge as the starting guards. The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge. The one thing that reassures me is the Bills had Torrence in, Aaron Kromer worked him out and he has presumably signed off on this pick. I still think despite the struggles last year that Kromer can coach. If he thinks he can make this work I'm willing to trust him. The second minor concern with the pick is positional value. It's a guard with a premium pick. I'd have been tempted to go weapon again with Hyatt but I have said all draft season that in a weaker class I'm about targeting guys you really like a bit less than I am about positional value. Tight End and Guard would not normally float my boat... but we all knew they needed to upgrade Josh's weapons and his protection and to that end they are 2 for 2. Hard to complain too much about that. 

 

Onto round 3 where the Bills, for the second year running, snagged a linebacker. At least this year it was a guy I had heard of and evaluated. In terms of my grads Dorian Williams was a top 100 player and was the 20th best available by my board when selected. I had borderline 3rd/4th round grade on him, so value where selected I was fine with. There was a lot of talk about where the value of the board might be by this pick in the run up to the draft and personally I thought edge might be in play but my edge depth was wiped out by #91 and while there are a few guys knocking about I'd consider on day 3 my board is now very thin at the position. I have seen a lot of talk since the pick was made about Williams being the Tremaine Edmunds replacement though.... and I am not sure that is the player he is. To me he is more Milano than Edmunds. He possesses great speed, can run side to side and can cover as well as some safeties. But he isn't big by NFL linebacking standards and he doesn't play with the requisite power to be a difference maker at the point of contact coming downhill. Brandon Beane said last night that he agrees and they see Williams as an "outside guy" in year 1. Which I suppose did make me question what the answer for Tremaine's spot is. Conventional wisdom says that Bernard, Dodson and Klein battle it out. But if your rookie has to play outside day 1 could Matt Milano play inside? The Bills have done it before - noticeable with Lorenzo Alexander in that playoff game in Jacksonville - where suddenly an outside guy ran the defense. Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side? Questions indeed. But basically I think Williams can be an impactful NFL player down the road as a modern, undersized linebacker that Sean McDermott has had success with over the years. 

 

So both of the picks in isolation I see the reasoning and I don't dislike either. I do, however, wonder strategically whether I'd have played it the other way. Had I been in the live thread last night when we went on the clock in round 2 I'd have had good money on Trenton Simpson or Drew Sanders being the pick. I don't think any of us foresaw both of those players making it to #59. Indeed, I did a mock on one of the simulators the other day where Simpson and Campbell both fell and I ignored them as I felt two of the top three linebackers getting to #59 was unrealistic - shows what I know! I am not doubting that Torrence was right up there on the Bills board when they selected him. Like I said above he was right up there on mine too, but I suspect the linebackers were there somewhere too. But I wonder if they looked at it and said "hang on, Simpson, Sanders, Henley and Williams are all still there" (Henry To'o To'o is too, though not sure they Bills have shown even a passing interest in him) and felt like they could wait on linebacker until round 3, whereas in terms of offensive line Bergeron, Avila, Schmitz, Tippman and Mauch had all gone off the board and the remaining depth was thinner. In hindsight I'd have preferred Simpson or Sanders and then Chandler Zavala (who is still there) at the end of the 3rd I think, because you'd have had your starter at linebacker alongside Milano but I get it hindsight is 20/20 and again, I find it hard to be too critical of an approach that has focused on Josh and the offense. That has been long overdue. 

 

How we approach day 3 will be fascinating. Not sure there is a single position they "have to have" at this point so they can follow the board. But dline, safety and another receiver are where I'll be keeping an eye. Beane said last night receiver and corner is where the remaining depth looks best. My board is pretty similar if I expand corner out to defensive back to include safeties (on which more below). 

 

What about the other 31...

I suppose I should start where the second round started with the Steelers and the fairytale with Joey Porter Jnr. Not only is that a great story but they got a genuine top 15 player in this class at the start of round 2. Exceptional value. I am not, as readers of my thoughts this spring will know, the biggest fan of their next two picks - Keeanu Benton at defensive tackle in the 2nd and Darnell Washington at tight end in the 3rd - but they both 'feel' like Steelers to me. Wouldn't be surprised if both were successful in Pittsburgh. The team I though had a slam dunk of a night was Joe Schoen and the New York Football Giants. John Michael Schmitz is a plug and play 8 year starter. An older prospect who will be a leader on that offensive line day 1. Jon Feliciano was their starting center last season and is now in San Francisco. This is a huge upgrade. And then they swung a trade to move up in round 3 and snag Jalin Hyatt who was a top 25 player on my board. They will ultimately have to find a way to upgrade at Quarterback but so far the Schoen - Daboll era in New Jersey has been extremely impressive. A word for the Bengals too. Their defensive backfield lost three starters in Von Bell, Jesse Bates and Eli Apple this spring. DJ Turner might be more of a nickel corner but has some outside ability and was good value at the end of round 2 and then Jordan Battle probably starts as a rookie at strong safety. A couple of teams who left me scratching my head on day 2 - I know some people here love Jonathan Mingo, but I don't. The Panthers reached on him and then reached again with DJ Johnson in round 3, a former tight end turned edge rusher who will turn 25 early in his rookie season. The Packers took two tight ends (your guess is as good as mine) and a small, not particularly explosive, slot receiver in Jayden Reed who to my eye has the talent of a day 3 pick. There used to be a time when the Packers were good at drafting. Can anyone remember that far back? I'd also throw the Chiefs in the list of teams who I don't think have had the best draft so far. It felt a bit like they got a consolation prize in Anudike-Uzomah at the end of the first (though I like the player) they traded up in round 2 for Rashee Rice, who had a poor draft season despite solid tape at SMU but doesn't strike me as their "type" of receiver and then their desperation at tackle showed at the end of round 3 when they jumped up again for Wanya Morris. I confess Morris isn't a guy I watched a lot of and he does feel like a high risk but high reward selection. Their tackle situation would remain a serious concern for me heading into the season if I were a Chiefs fan. 

 

My other overall conclusion on day 2 was the general consensus lasted longer than I expected. By the end of the second round only one player not on my board had gone (Brenton Strange) and he was a "didn't have time to get to" rather than a guy I watched and dismissed (sidenote - 9 tight ends in the first 101 picks - wow). In round 3 there were 10 guys I hadn't got on the board - but four of those were the last four comp picks of the round. So actually despite the relative weakness of this draft the consensus over who the top 100 or so guys are has held pretty well. Which brings me to...

 

What's left?

I have 46 players left on my board heading into day 3... and by that the best 15 remaining are:

 

1. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

2. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

3. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

4. Andrew Vorhees*, IOL, USC

5. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

6. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern

7. Christopher Smith, S, Georgia

8. Chandler Zavala, IOL, North Carolina Stata

9. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland

10. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama

11. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama

12. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State

13. Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame

14. Henry To'o To'o, LB, Alabama

15. Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU

 

As you can see offensive line and secondary heavy at this stage... there is a batch of receivers just outside that group too. Those are the spots where I expect early day 3 runs.

 

Enjoy folks!

 

 

 

Why is Antonio Johnson falling Gunner! 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Why is Antonio Johnson falling Gunner! 

RAS. But the tape tells a different story.

[jkeerie]

A rational, well discussed evaluation of the Bills picks by someone who has real knowledge of the players and the game.  Much better than all the venom spewed by folks who just want to criticize without possessing real knowledge.  I was at a party last night and missed Day 2 of the draft, but had I been watching, like you, I would have taken Sanders or Simpson at 59 and gone oline in the 3rd.  Having said that, the Bills obviously felt the value for Torrence at 59 was too good to pass up and I'm not going to criticize them nabbing a first round talent to add to an Oline that was desparate for improvement.  In truth, I don't know much about Williams, having sparsely watched Tulane's games, though watching him in the bowl game vs USC, I immediately took note!  We can only wait and see what the Bills approach will be with their LBs especially in the middle.  Many criticized Edmunds for missing tackles and being slow reacting to the pass.  Williams seems to be the opposite being a solid tackler and reacting well to the pass.  So...I think the Bills roster has definitely been improved thus far this draft.  I'd like to see WR and DT addressed with the remaining picks.

[buffaloboyinATL]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side?

 

 

This is kind of what I am starting to think we will do.  Klein is at his best in this role, and it will be easier to sub other players into that spot. I am interested in To'o To'o, but not sure we will take 2 LB'ers in a row.  I think DL, Roy from LSU would be a great fit.  

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge.

 

I wonder if it was a case of a player with a much higher grade sticking out on the board. Ideally you always want to take perfect scheme fits, but if a lesser scheme fit is a high 2nd round grade and everyone else on the board is borderline 2nd/3rd you should just take the higher grade and find a way to make it work.

 

I appreciate that in rounds 1 and 2 Beane did appear to truly stick to a BPA strategy. I'm not entirely convinced that Dorian Williams was BPA at that spot, I think the run on LBs immediately before our pick may have made Beane panic that we were going to miss the boat entirely on our biggest position of need. Your analysis of him makes me feel a lot better about the player, I just don't understand why Beane took a Milano backup/special teamer in the 3rd round by his own admission. I'm trying to figure out what the plan is. My bold guess is that they have already soured on Bernard and are prepared to move on from him after his rookie season.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, jkeerie said:

I don't know much about Williams, having sparsely watched Tulane's games, though watching him in the bowl game vs USC, I immediately took note!

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

That's a little too much recency bias.

[jkeerie]

41 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

That's a good thought.  Also bowl games are important.  If they play their best in big games, that bodes well for the player's ability to turn it up a notch when they have to.

[Shaw66]

Great stuff, Gunner!  Thanks!

 

You're point about positional value got me thinking about this and prior drafts.   Looking at positional values doesn't make Beane's first and second round drafts look too good.  

 

The point about positional value is most clear when you look at punters.   You just don't take punters in the first round, because the best punter in the world is not going to make that much difference in terms of wins and losses over a guy you can pick up in free agency.  

 

The high positional values are QB, wideout, DB, DL, OT, occasionally a center.   You generally don't take TEs or guards in the first round.   It's easy to see why.   You want guys who are keepers, and those are the positions you take in the first round.   If you get a good OT in the first round, five years later you pay him and keep him.  Same with a QB.   But if you get a really good TE, five years later you often lose him, because he just isn't that important to your offense.  Now, if Kincaid becomes Kelce, sure, you keep him, but most other TEs just aren't worth spending the money on.  

 

Look at Beane's record at getting keepers.   Not so good.  Allen, for sure, but Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Basham, a bunch of guys who probably won't be kept.   Now Kincaid, another guy who probably won't be kept, although obviously it's too early to tell.  The point is that it's beginning to look like Beane is drafting more for the short-term than to find long-term keepers.  When he's drafted for positional value, he hasn't done so well, and this year he's gone away from positional value altogether, getting a TE and a guard, the two positions least likely to be drafted in the first two rounds but two positions that can help the Bills in the short term.  

 

A different way to look at what's happened is that Beane and McDermott are making some serious bets on guys who leave us scratching our heads.   Is Brown really the guy they're going with at right tackle?   Is Dawkins really the long-term answer on the left?   What's the future of the center position?  Are all the MLB candidates misfits?   

 

I find the Bills' focus on traditionally less valuable positions to be odd.