PFF grades from KC...(for what they're worth)

[hemma]

Beasley was breaking down at the end of his time here, but until then he was tough, clutch and rarely made a mistake.

Pretty high bar for McK to match, let alone jump over.  IMO, makes him more noticeable and not in a good way.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Lost said:

Re: Milano score.   There was one play on the first KC drive where Mahomes threw a pass to Hardman and Milano looked to be in position to make a tackle but he just kinda stopped and Hardman ran right by him.  Milano is one of the best open field tacklers in the game.  That play just looked weird though.

 

 

Good find and thanks for the screen shots.  That is weird.

 

[eball]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Milano gave up a 100% completion percentage on 3 targets, a 106.9 QBR against and had 3 missed tackles. Statistically, it was his worst game of the season. In addition he made a couple of bad reads on the play. He was still a beast out there, but I can see where the low grade comes from.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00/gamelog/2022/advanced/

 

Don’t buy the hype.  Anyone who watched saw the game-changing and game-saving plays Milano was making.

 

As I said…the positive grades are pretty easy to figure out.  The negative grades are subjectively made by part-time “analysts” who have no idea what play was called or what a player’s responsibility was.

 

[RocCityRoller]

How on Earth were Milano and Lawson that low?!

 

Neal and Elam are a bit high IMO

 

Offense seems about right.

[Beck Water]

 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont think its a tough decision either. White and Elam will clearly be our starters when White comes back. Not to take anything away from Benford or even Jackson, but Elam is getting that spot.

 

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Not saying he or Benford arent playing well. I just think the coaches' choice is pretty clear. Unless Elam's performance falls off a cliff, they'll have him in there because they want him in there. Now, McD and crew are usually good about playing the better performers, but I dont think there is that much difference to warrant a change of plan at this point.

 

Elam had a pretty bad game against Pittsburgh.  Yeah, he got a pick, but he got burned.

 

I'm just curious why you feel the coach's choice to want Elam in there is clear when Benford started the first 2 games and saw roughly half the snaps?

Playing Elam since Miami was due to Benford's injury, from which he's still recovering, not due to personnel preference.  They played Benford almost 40% of the snaps vs. KC with a splint on his broken hand!

 

Elam has given up 72% completions against him for an 88.3% passer rating when targeted

Benford has given up 50% completions against him for a 67.5% passer rating when targeted

Jackson 52% completions, 49.9% passer rating when targeted

 

My guess would be: Jackson starts, White gets worked back in gradually with Benford and Elam, who gets the majority of the snaps depends upon how fast Tre White plays himself back into game shape and who we're facing/the coverage matchups the coaches see.  Good problem to have, hopefully!

[Billever76]

They are grading Milano on his coverage of kelce which is totally unfair...no one shuts down kelce alone especially a lber 😆 

[Pags24]

I disagree with our OGs being graded this low.  The entire line was allowing pressure in the first half but KC was blitzing on almost every play.  When the OL was blocking KC's 4 man rush they protected really well.  In the second half the Bills did a better job of keeping an extra blocker to help protect against their blitz and it helped. ALSO, it was our best game running the ball this year by far.  Great push and huge holes created on those run plays by Saffold, Bates and the line.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

34 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

They are grading Milano on his coverage of kelce which is totally unfair...no one shuts down kelce alone especially a lber 😆 

I'm not sure if PFF takes the assignment into consideration (but it should). If an offensive lineman neutralizes Aaron Donald, it should carry more weight than if he was playing against an average DT. 

 

PFF scores are interesting to look at, but there's not enough transparency as to how they grade players when they don't really know what they were supposed to be doing on any given play.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

I dont think its a tough decision either. White and Elam will clearly be our starters when White comes back. Not to take anything away from Benford or even Jackson, but Elam is getting that spot.

I think it’s Danes spot.  we shall see.  
 

P.S.  imagine if we had been lucky enough to draft Von Miller instead of Dareus!!  😃 😉 it’s great to finally watch him in a Bills uniform. 

[MarkyMannn]

3 hours ago, Process said:

Our first four picks in the draft next year needs to look something like OL OL WR OL. 

The 2021 draft first 2 picks were DL. I got no problem if 2023 first 2 picks are OL.

[DrDawkinstein]

52 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

My guess would be: Jackson starts, White gets worked back in gradually with Benford and Elam, who gets the majority of the snaps depends upon how fast Tre White plays himself back into game shape and who we're facing/the coverage matchups the coaches see.  Good problem to have, hopefully!

 

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think it’s Danes spot.  we shall see.  
 

P.S.  imagine if we had been lucky enough to draft Von Miller instead of Dareus!!  😃 😉 it’s great to finally watch him in a Bills uniform. 

 

I could see Jackson getting it. It would make sense and follow McD's MO of bringing rookies along slowly. Now that yall mention it, I think I believe it will be Jackson and White. And agreed they ease White back in on rotation.

 

I dont have fancy stats to back it up. I just have a feeling that as long as he is playing well enough, they'll want to give Elam the snaps and experience.

 

End of the day, there really isnt a wrong choice for the staff. Definitely good problem to have!

 

edit: wrt Miller. First off, how dare you 🤣 Secondly, I'll chalk it up to all things happen for a reason. If we had drafted Miller back then, it's probably likely that he isnt on the Bills anymore at this point and not part of this historic team. Also, likely we may have won a couple more games that may have knocked us out of the running to snag Josh. Lastly, Miller is too small to compete with NFL Tackles and will never be good in this league!

 

 

52 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Elam had a pretty bad game against Pittsburgh.  Yeah, he got a pick, but he got burned.

 

To this point, I think we're seeing a bit of the "Levi Wallace Effect" on Elam. That being: this Defense is designed to push passes to the #2 DB. It is partly why we saw Wallace being "picked on" or having so many passes thrown his way. Frazier schemes to force the QB to make his read to a certain player or part of the field. That is usually toward our #2DB where they have Safety and/or LB help.

 

Obviously, Elam has a lot of growing and developing to do as well. But I'm not judging him too harshly on that game yet. We still only gave up 3 points, and that pick was in the end zone.

Edited October 19, 2022 by DrDawkinstein

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

They ran out of hungover college kids to do their manual labor for them so they've out-sourced it to India for a while now.

 

 

Well eff me with a cricket bat. I was gonna make a Bangalore joke but figured it was a stretch.

[Low Positive]

Could Milano's poor grade have something to do with the fact that he played the majority of the game as a QB spy, thereby not doing what PFF expects a LB to do?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

32 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Could Milano's poor grade have something to do with the fact that he played the majority of the game as a QB spy, thereby not doing what PFF expects a LB to do?

If thats the case they aren't worth looking at with out context

[BigAl2526]

Buffalo Rumblings was a lot kinder to Siran Neal than PFF and a lot of other observers.  IIn their opinion, while Neal lost some battles to Kelsey, he also won enough to help the Bills.  Kelsey had a solid day receiving, with 8 catches for 108 yards (or thereabouts - my memory is not clear on the exact number).  On the other hand, Kelsey had no TD catches.  Buffalo Rumblings analyzes a number of plays where Neal's coverage on Kelsey prevented Mahomes from completing or making a pass to Kelsey.  All 22 analysis of Siran Neal defending against Travis Kelsey

Edited October 19, 2022 by BigAl2526

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

Buffalo Rumblings was a lot kinder to Siran Neal that PFF and a lot of other observers.  IIn their opinion, while Neal lost some battles to Kelsey, he also won enough to help the Bills.  Kelsey had a solid day receiving, with 8 catches for 108 yards (or thereabouts - my memory is not clear on the exact number).  On the other hand, Kelsey had no TD catches.  Buffalo Rumblings analyzes a number of plays where Neal's coverage on Kelsey prevented Mahomes from completing or making a pass to Kelsey.  All 22 analysis of Siran Neal defending against Travis Kelsey

 

There was a clip (I think on buffalobills.com?) of one of the assistant coaches, I think the DB coach, rallying his troups on the sideline "yards don't matter!  we don't care about yards!  we care about points!  no points!"

 

This is entirely a hunch, but given the plays that have been diagrammed showing that the Bills pass rush was deliberately slanted to force Mahomes out in the direction they wanted him to go, I wonder if the Bills also slanted coverage to limit completions to Kelce to areas where they were best positioned to stop him?

[Beck Water]

 

 

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

To this point, I think we're seeing a bit of the "Levi Wallace Effect" on Elam. That being: this Defense is designed to push passes to the #2 DB. It is partly why we saw Wallace being "picked on" or having so many passes thrown his way. Frazier schemes to force the QB to make his read to a certain player or part of the field. That is usually toward our #2DB where they have Safety and/or LB help.

 

Are they still doing that with Jackson and not White as the #1 guy?  Whether or not the defense pushed passes to the #2 DB, I think most OCs preferred not to challenge White.  But I'd be surprised if Jackson inspires the same avoidance.

 

It's a good thought though.

 

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Obviously, Elam has a lot of growing and developing to do as well. But I'm not judging him too harshly on that game yet. We still only gave up 3 points, and that pick was in the end zone.

 

? Pittsburgh pass Elam picked in B'lo territory but not EZ?

 

I don't mean to be judging him harshly, just making the case I don't think he's established himself as higher than Jackson or Benford in the depth chart

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

As always, stopped at PFF 

[finn]

9 hours ago, Mango said:

A lot is probably the Mahomes factor. The dude is maybe the slipperiest QB of my lifetime. Whatever Josh is to a physical QB, Mahomes is the same to finesse when it comes to athleticism. 

Buffalo Rumblings described him running around "like a squirrel." Made me laugh. Perfect description!

[finn]

6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

We’ve had this battle numerous times, Beck. Of course you score points with facts, but Lil Dummy doesn’t ever pass the eye test and his errors are numerous and disastrous! That he’s ever the walking clown show does nothing to improve or overcome his short, shortcomings.

Agree. The muffed kickoff return against Indy last year, the ball taken away from him in the Rams game, the fumble and two critical drops in the KC game... Those aren't just random plays; they're key moments when the team needed him and he choked. Yes, he had a clutch game against NE last year, and he has been reliable in the slot, but he's small, light, and not much of a runner after the catch, despite his speed. He's just another guy. I suspect Shakir is better. 

[GreggTX]

I don't care if we don't sign McCaffrey or OBJ. I want to keep Poyer and get help for our below average OL. I love Spencer Brown's innate ability, but watching him attempt to block is a nightmare. Bates is a backup and for whatever reason, Saffold has been underperforming -- lingering affects from his car accident? This is clearly our biggest area of concern, if not our only area of concern.

 

OBJ would be a nice add, but not if it keeps Davis or Shakir on the bench. McCaffrey would be a nice add, but not as nice as a probowl caliber RT or even RG. Singletary is playing very well and no one notices. Cook will be fine if not great as long as he focuses on ball security. Upgrade the OL and you upgrade the skill positions.

 

Big names sell tickets. McCaffrey and OBJ have earned their reputations, but we don't want other teams doing to us what Miller and Rousseau are doing to them. That takes the ball out of the hands of our very talented weapons a few times per game. Josh is good under pressure, but he's unstoppable with a clean pocket. So let's upgrade the whole offense.

[Scott7975]

I never take their player grades seriously.  They have no idea what the player is asked to do and if he did what he was supposed to.  Milano was key to that win and has been playing lights out all year. 

[Punching Bag]

13 hours ago, DJB said:

How is McKenzie anything but a -46 for his PFF score?!?!?!

 

PFF grader is more competent than you?  Or  a typo.

[BullBuchanan]

On 10/19/2022 at 12:01 PM, eball said:

 

Don’t buy the hype.  Anyone who watched saw the game-changing and game-saving plays Milano was making.

 

As I said…the positive grades are pretty easy to figure out.  The negative grades are subjectively made by part-time “analysts” who have no idea what play was called or what a player’s responsibility was.

 

I think you're just expecting the grades to represent data that they don't. You can have a on overall weak performance and still make huge clutch plays resulting ina  low overall score.

They lay this out pretty transparently: https://www.pff.com/grades


it's just data. It's not personal. Of course there are limitations, as there are with any ability to grade (even the "eye test"), but the implementation appears to be logical

16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I never take their player grades seriously.  They have no idea what the player is asked to do and if he did what he was supposed to.  Milano was key to that win and has been playing lights out all year. 

They address this:

"

YOU DON’T KNOW THE PLAY CALL?

We are certainly not in the huddle, but we are grading what a player attempts to do on a given play. While football is extremely nuanced regarding the preparation and adjustments that go into each play call, once the ball is snapped, most players are clear in what they’re trying to accomplish on each play, and we evaluate accordingly. Of course, there are always some gray areas in football. Plays in which there is a clear question mark regarding assignment, we can defer to a “0” grade and not guess as to which player is right or wrong. These plays are few and far between and since we are grading every snap, missing out on a handful throughout the year should not affect player evaluations. Examples of potential gray areas include coverage busts, quarterback/wide receiver miscommunications and missed blocking assignments. "

[No_Matter_What]

On 10/19/2022 at 4:33 PM, BullBuchanan said:

 

Milano gave up a 100% completion percentage on 3 targets, a 106.9 QBR against and had 3 missed tackles. Statistically, it was his worst game of the season. In addition he made a couple of bad reads on the play. He was still a beast out there, but I can see where the low grade comes from.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00/gamelog/2022/advanced/

First of all thank for all your reasonable posts on this topic. I understand that PFF is far for ideal but the manner and scope in which people are bashing them because they don't like their grading re specific players is ridiculous imo.

 

Anyway, to follow up on your link, here is the video where PFF is actually commenting on Milano grade.

 

 

Milano is from 50:45. They go futher than PFR and they are saying that he gave up 6 catches on 6 targets to 70+ yards and that 4 of those catches were for the first down. They also confirmed PFR's 3 missed tackles (one of which was that brutal one in the first half next to sideline which is discussed in this thread).

 

Now I would really like to know if they are right. Unfortunately I don't have time to rewatch again and find those 6 targets. It is a shame that they don't show them in the video, that would increase their credibility in my eyes.

 

But if that is the truth, I can understand the low grade, since you can't judge a players game based on the highlight plays only. However, in that case, I also think that grading is flawed if every snap has the same value, so that half "bad snaps" and half great snaps including some game-changing plays can result in 42 or something grade.

 

[BullBuchanan]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:36 AM, No_Matter_What said:

First of all thank for all your reasonable posts on this topic. I understand that PFF is far for ideal but the manner and scope in which people are bashing them because they don't like their grading re specific players is ridiculous imo.

 

Anyway, to follow up on your link, here is the video where PFF is actually commenting on Milano grade.

 

 

Milano is from 50:45. They go futher than PFR and they are saying that he gave up 6 catches on 6 targets to 70+ yards and that 4 of those catches were for the first down. They also confirmed PFR's 3 missed tackles (one of which was that brutal one in the first half next to sideline which is discussed in this thread).

 

Now I would really like to know if they are right. Unfortunately I don't have time to rewatch again and find those 6 targets. It is a shame that they don't show them in the video, that would increase their credibility in my eyes.

 

But if that is the truth, I can understand the low grade, since you can't judge a players game based on the highlight plays only. However, in that case, I also think that grading is flawed if every snap has the same value, so that half "bad snaps" and half great snaps including some game-changing plays can result in 42 or something grade.

 

It's not that every snap has the same value, just that they are judged on the same scale of -2 to +2. If you look at their rubric though, they do grade impact plays more aggressively to the -2 and +2 sides. PFF has been rating Milano very highly for most of his career. They have justification for their grades and I thought that Milano wasn't having one of his better games when watching, in spite of the good plays he did make. There's a lot of "can do no wrong" that floats around here and the rest of Bills fandom once a player enters a protected class, and it doesn't matter what numbers you have to back it up.