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Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?


Adamb412
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3 hours ago, Nelius said:

You're missing the fact that Baltimore has given up the most passing yards through 3 weeks, which works for the best QB in the league. Their defense has been awful.

 

Granted that's inflated by the Miami game, but as we just saw, Josh is worth at least two Tuas. But even if you dismiss their Miami game as an outlier, they also just gave up 26 to the Pats (lol). They also gave up the most passing yards per game last year. I personally think Baltimore has some serious issues and am surprised by how many still rank them as one of the very top AFC teams. I've even seen them in some Super Bowl picks. I don't even think they take their division.

This.

 

Joe Flacco threw for 309

Tua 469

McCorkle Jones 321

 

Allen should be good for 500 yards 8 TD.

Edited by ArtVandalay
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37 minutes ago, Rick 'r Mortis said:

Because in the rain Jackson can be caught.

I remember the SF vs Balt game in 2019 where Jackson rushed for over 100 yards in some bad rain. He also passed for just over 100. Balt won 20-17. Looks like we have a high chance of seeing another rainy day on Sunday. Hope our guys can produce like they did last year in those early rainy games in Buffalo. 

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9 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

it's for gambling purposes

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The Bills are 244 YPG better than Baltimore defensively through 3 games.

 

The Bills are 61 YPG better than Baltimore offensively through 3 games.

 

The Bills point differential is 31 points better than Baltimore through 3 games.

 

The Bills have played against better opponents than Baltimore.

 

If it weren’t for the injuries, the spread would be BUF -7.

Edited by mike22nc
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9 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?


i mean Baltimore lost to MIA too. Also, I heard a betting expert on the radio mention that the sportsbooks today don’t really follow that “classic” home advantage rule of Home -3 anymore when it comes to lines. It’s now closer to -1.5.

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In my opinion, you need to take into account what will make the most money.  This means considering the legalized betting as well.  If a team comes in and just blows everyone away, it won't make as much as a team or a league that is more even.  Consider the betting odds if Buffalo starts out the year blowing some solid teams out and then drops to 3-3.  I read an article before the year started that said the Bills would start 3-3 and still make it to the Super Bowl.  So far, it looks very possible so don't be surprised.  Again, just my opinion.    

Go Bills!!!!!

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8 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Have you ANY IDEA how many injuries this team has sustained in a week?!?!! Are you under the delusion that we won't have 10+ players on the injury report?

 

Evidently not. The sky isn't falling, but key players are FALLING OUT and if you're too blind to see that then no one can help you.

Ohio, I’m very aware of the transient injuries of the Bills, minus the real hit on Hyde.  These guys at least many of them were getting healthier before the Fins.  The heat stroke guys will have IV’s until they are ok.  The line concerns me, but I’m the farthest from delusional.  The Ravens are just as banged up as us.

 

Im not paying attention to this stuff that much anyway as my city is about to get a cat 3 hurricane Thursday morning.  I’m in Philly for work, but all flights are cancelled into Tampa all day and the Governor declared a state of emergency.  Once I’m home Friday night, I’ll start paying attention to injury reports Saturday morning.

51 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I remember the SF vs Balt game in 2019 where Jackson rushed for over 100 yards in some bad rain. He also passed for just over 100. Balt won 20-17. Looks like we have a high chance of seeing another rainy day on Sunday. Hope our guys can produce like they did last year in those early rainy games in Buffalo. 

Are you sure it wasn’t 24-17 in our loss, but Lamar had his worst performance per the stats for his mvp year.  McD and FRASIER called a good defense and I don’t remember 100 yards of rushing as we contained him pretty well that day.  They won and good for them.

 

I’ll pay attention starting Saturday.

21 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:


i mean Baltimore lost to MIA too. Also, I heard a betting expert on the radio mention that the sportsbooks today don’t really follow that “classic” home advantage rule of Home -3 anymore when it comes to lines. It’s now closer to -1.5.

You’re right Jopoy.  On NFLR, the guys that quote the line for the NFL stated it was 1.7 pts, but what do I know as I don’t gamble.  The house always wins in the end.

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9 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

I am sure it seems odd to some here. A lot of folks expected this to be an invincible Bills team rolling to 20-0 (or something close to that).  Now they’re freaking out because that illusion has been shattered. The reality is the same as it was a month ago though. The Bills are a helluva good team, one of the best - if not the best - in the league. But they aren’t the only stacked team in the NFL. The AFC in particular is stacked and it will be a dogfight to the end. 

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Easy.  The Bills are just a better team than Baltimore.  Our offense is better than their offense.  Our defense is better than their defense.  Admittedly, I don't know how the STs stack up.  

 

I swear, it's like people on this board think that every other team in the league has a stacked roster from top to bottom with no discernable weaknesses.  Yes, we're banged up right now and our secondary in particular is looking pretty sketchy.  Take a look at what the Ravens are putting out there on defense these days.  It's not the Ray Lewis / Ed Reed era.

 

(That's not to say that we're a mortal lock to win this week.  If we played the Ravens over and over again, I'd expect to win maybe 65% or so of the time.  So we should be favored but not by a massive amount.)

Edited by BillsFanSD
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I do think we are unlikely to win this game unless we get a lot of players back and actually healthy.  I think as long as our O line is this depleted, teams will have success keeping us off the score sheet if they keep blitzing as much as they did on Sunday, but I hope I'm proven wrong on Sunday.

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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Ohio, I’m very aware of the transient injuries of the Bills, minus the real hit on Hyde.  These guys at least many of them were getting healthier before the Fins.  The heat stroke guys will have IV’s until they are ok.  The line concerns me, but I’m the farthest from delusional.  The Ravens are just as banged up as us.

 

Im not paying attention to this stuff that much anyway as my city is about to get a cat 3 hurricane Thursday morning.  I’m in Philly for work, but all flights are cancelled into Tampa all day and the Governor declared a state of emergency.  Once I’m home Friday night, I’ll start paying attention to injury reports Saturday morning.

Are you sure it wasn’t 24-17 in our loss, but Lamar had his worst performance per the stats for his mvp year.  McD and FRASIER called a good defense and I don’t remember 100 yards of rushing as we contained him pretty well that day.  They won and good for them.

 

I’ll pay attention starting Saturday.

You’re right Jopoy.  On NFLR, the guys that quote the line for the NFL stated it was 1.7 pts, but what do I know as I don’t gamble.  The house always wins in the end.

I was referencing a game between Balt and SF. The importance was the weather and Lamar’s performance. 

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9 hours ago, par73 said:

One thing we know-- Bills will not win if it is decided by one score or less .

 

That's going to haunt us until it doesn't. Whole team (coaches included) need to internalize Von's mantra: "Don't blink."

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