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Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?


Adamb412
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People on here have tunnel vision.

  • The Ravens' injury report is actually longer than ours.
  • They have an identical record to ours, but their victories are against the Jets and Pats. Both the Jets and Pats scored points against them
  • Their loss to Miami was at home and contained a spectacular collapse. Our loss was on the road and was by 2 points
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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Dang...I posted in another thread the weather may not be too bad.  But that was Monday lol....I'm off.

 

Well, hopefully Lamar is worse in the rain.

Yeah, Ian is going to be impacting much of the east coast this weekend with rain and a little bit of wind. 

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1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

It has probably been discussed, but has anyone mentioned that the Ravens are beaten up and injured too?

 

This was them before the game sunday:

 

Capture.JPG

That’s before the injuries to Justin Houston and Michael pierce. They already had no pass rush. JPP is coming in this week - he’s their Warm body. 
 

Patrick makari also got hurt and will be out this week. They were already thin on the OL and starting the rookie falale at LT. He’s been awful so far.

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1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:


i mean Baltimore lost to MIA too. Also, I heard a betting expert on the radio mention that the sportsbooks today don’t really follow that “classic” home advantage rule of Home -3 anymore when it comes to lines. It’s now closer to -1.5.

I think this is correct, as in more recent years NFL teams home records have drifted closer to .500. 

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35 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

People on here have tunnel vision.

  • The Ravens' injury report is actually longer than ours.
  • They have an identical record to ours, but their victories are against the Jets and Pats. Both the Jets and Pats scored points against them
  • Their loss to Miami was at home and contained a spectacular collapse. Our loss was on the road and was by 2 points

 

  • This is to entice money on both sides by Vegas - they open lines based on htat and adjust if the money heads to far in either direction
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1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

  • This is to entice money on both sides by Vegas - they open lines based on htat and adjust if the money heads to far in either direction

Of course it is, but the reason it starts off at 3.5 is because they (oddsmakers) believe the Bills are the better team, and they are.

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12 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

 

My only guess is Vegas trying to make some money and if I was a gambling man wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole.

 

The Bills can certainly win but I think the Ravens are another strong SB contender and this is another game I had circled in as a loss this year. 

 

One thing is for sure I don't see the Bills going in there and blowing them out so they will likely have yet another chance to figure out how to win a close football game.

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12 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?


Your missing context.  Balt might have the worst secondary in the NFL…Bills prob have the best passing offense in the NFL.  Allen is going to feast.  
 

It’s not that complicated.  
 

PS:  We may have lost, but under extreme circumstances and conditions not likely to repeat itself.  Just shows how much more a level head people outside of Buffalo are having about this loss.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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10 hours ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

Still can't get over that 4th quarter bounce pass to an open McKenzie with the game on the line.  Have to make that throw!

Can’t disagree, unless you think about the one guy who got hit in the hand, didn’t get to go sit plays out and played his guts out for 60 minutes. Thinking exhaustion and a bit of pain in that throwing hand has something to do with it. One throw and the loss don’t sit squarely on him. 

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26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

PS:  We may have lost, but under extreme circumstances and conditions not likely to repeat itself.  Just shows how much more a level head people outside of Buffalo are having about this loss.  


I went to the game in B’more 3 years ago maybe  🤔 

 

the horrible blowout loss

 

thank for the reminder 💩 head

 

😝 with all kindness of course 

 

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