If LB Devin Lloyd is available at Pick 25......

[mrags]

11 hours ago, Vickveto said:

Edmunds replacement will probably be drafted in the first round and Edmunds will probably be traded on draft day. We can’t keep everybody. We use premium picks on premium positions and middle linebacker is a premium position to us.

Brace for impact. Edmunds will more than likely be traded on draft day. And it might be Troy Anderson or Quay Walker at 25

Not a chance Walker or Anderson go that high. Next beers on me if I’m wrong 

[mrags]

10 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I think Edmunds' replacement will be drafted this year, but it won't be until round 3 or later. We still need to add a cb and wr first and hopefully Chad Muma, Troy Anderson, or Darrian Beavers will be available in the 3rd. Edmunds would remain the starter while the rookie gets reps in 4-3 fronts as he learns the defense and starts in 2023. 

I think if Lloyd was there we take him at 25. But if not I think Beavers could be our pick in the 3rd Rd. They’ve met with him I believe. He’s a monster. I like him a lot 

[mrags]

10 hours ago, Special K said:

Lloyd has been available in 4 of the 5 mock drafts I have done over the last few days....that’s what got me thinking about this scenario.

In my scenario, the Bills would use the money saved from Edmunds contract to sign a vet CB instead of drafting one early....I would prefer a vet CB over a rookie CB.

He’s been available in a bunch of mocks lately for me as well. With the movement of Miami’s picks, the Seahawks picks, and the recent ones of New Orleans. Pretty sure it has shaken up the expectations of many mocks because nobody knows what’s going to happen. 
 

I foresee more trades and moves leading up to the draft and in draft day than maybe ever before. This off-season has been insane and I don’t expect things to get any less crazy. 

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Like last year when everyone mocked them Etienne right?

 

 

He was already gone. Just saying. 

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

He was already gone. Just saying. 

The Bills made a draft doco with Beane in the war room and Groot was always he pick 

[Mr. WEO]

forgot to throw in Moss....

[TheBrownBear]

We finally have the luxury of drafting BPA.  If it's Lloyd, then sure, take him.

[mrags]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

The Bills made a draft doco with Beane in the war room and Groot was always he pick 

Teams make these docos every single year and the pick they made is always the pick. They are always saying things like “we can’t believe he was still there” “he was the guy we wanted all along”. This is all nothing new. They aren’t going to give any insight to anyone out there that they were thinking anything different. Other teams watch these things and spend a lot of time looking for insight of how certain teams/gms view their boards for future drafts. 

[Vickveto]

11 minutes ago, mrags said:

Not a chance Walker or Anderson go that high. Next beers on me if I’m wrong 

I don’t like Walker but he was mocked to us on nfl.com a couple days ago in the first round. Anderson has a perfect RAS score more of a chance then you think. Freak athletes  go early.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Teams make these docos every single year and the pick they made is always the pick. They are always saying things like “we can’t believe he was still there” “he was the guy we wanted all along”. This is all nothing new. They aren’t going to give any insight to anyone out there that they were thinking anything different. Other teams watch these things and spend a lot of time looking for insight of how certain teams/gms view their boards for future drafts. 

Maybe … but its some evidence at least…

 

There is zero evidence they wanted Etienne 

[mrags]

6 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

I don’t like Walker but he was mocked to us on nfl.com a couple days ago in the first round. Anderson has a perfect RAS score more of a chance then you think. Freak athletes  go early.

Freak athletes go early. Guys with limited experience don’t 

 

 

fwiw I really like Walker. But in the 3rd round or later. 

4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Maybe … but its some evidence at least…

 

There is zero evidence they wanted Etienne 

There’s zero evidence for like 98% of guys that weren’t drafted on any draft boards of teams. They don’t leak that info. Like ever. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by mrags

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

 

There’s zero evidence for like 98% of guys that weren’t drafted on any draft boards of teams. They don’t leak that info. Like ever. 

Well.. in light of what evidence is actually in the public domain… I’m going to go with they wanted Groot the whole time and any interest in Etienne had no substance or was misinformation leaked by the Bills..

 

If you want to believe otherwise all good…

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, Special K said:

Would you select him, and trade Edmunds to a team with a top 15 Second Round Pick??

 

I know there are a lot of what-ifs in this scenario, but if the draft did fall this way, and a team with a top 15 second round pick was interested in trading for Edmunds...I would pull the trigger immediately on this.

 

Although I do not hate Edmunds as much as many on this board, I am certainly not a fan of giving him a huge contract extension either.

 

Lloyd is a beast of a LB, and could easily end up being better than Edmunds quite quickly, plus he would be on a cheaper rookie contract for the next 5 years.

 

I would use the second round pick from the trade to draft Breece Hall, the Bills actual second round pick to draft a speed WR like Metchie III, and use the cap savings from losing Edmunds contract to sign one of the Veteran CB's still on the market.

 

What do you think??

 

 

To me........someone trading a second round pick for Edmunds seems absurd.

 

But Cleveland traded a top of 3rd round pick to Buffalo for Tyrod Taylor.........so I suppose it's unfair to dismiss it out of hand.

 

Just seems highly unlikely.

 

Edmunds with that big, fully guaranteed cap hit and no team control left seems not-too-valuable, IMO..........some teams might consider it doing the Bills a favor taking that hit off the Bills hands.

 

 Especially in a draft deep in off-ball LB's.

 

I would hate for the Bills to draft another off-ball LB in round 1............expending a 1st and a 2nd on Edmunds hasn't yielded the desired result........so not sure why they would feel compelled to do it again.

[mrags]

11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Well.. in light of what evidence is actually in the public domain… I’m going to go with they wanted Groot the whole time and any interest in Etienne had no substance or was misinformation leaked by the Bills..

 

If you want to believe otherwise all good…

 

 

I never stated they had interest in Ettiene FYI. I only stated that was gone when we picked. So the original argument doesn’t exactly prove that they didn’t actually have interest in him. There’s no way to prove it for either of us. The only true fact that is there, is that he was already gone when we picked so you cannot confirm there was actually no interest. 
 

 

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, mrags said:

I never stated they had interest in Ettiene FYI. I only stated that was gone when we picked. So the original argument doesn’t exactly prove that they didn’t actually have interest in him. There’s no way to prove it for either of us. The only true fact that is there, is that he was already gone when we picked so you cannot confirm there was actually no interest. 
 

 

Agreed….As no one here is privy to what happened there is not going to be anyway to “prove” anything…

 

As mentioned…i can only point to the draft tape they released … I also find it interesting that they doubled down on DE with the next pick and didn’t even bother picking an RB at all during the draft…

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[mrags]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Agreed….As no one here is privy to what happened there is not going to be anyway to “prove” anything…

 

As mentioned…i can only point to the draft tape they released … I also find it interesting that they doubled down on DE with the next pick and didn’t even bother picking an RB at all…

Could very well mean that we did like Ettiene and only him in the draft. They clearly had grades on both Groot and Boogie. So that to me says they definitely wanted a DE and had favorable grades on them each. But maybe Ettiene was taken right ahead of us and they had to take their next BPA at the time. Couldn’t pass him up. 
 

again, there’s no way to know about any of this. Just a bunch of couch gms thinking they know why the Bills were thinking at the time. 

[Aussie Joe]

8 minutes ago, mrags said:

Could very well mean that we did like Ettiene and only him in the draft. They clearly had grades on both Groot and Boogie. So that to me says they definitely wanted a DE and had favorable grades on them each. But maybe Ettiene was taken right ahead of us and they had to take their next BPA at the time. Couldn’t pass him up. 
 

again, there’s no way to know about any of this. Just a bunch of couch gms thinking they know why the Bills were thinking at the time. 

Yep… more speculation…

 

As I said.., the only thing in the public domain is the draft tape…could be fabricated ( I question why  Beane would waste his time acting out a BS scenario though.. but it’s possible… ) …but it’s something at least…to me that’s better than people trying to rely on Twitter speculation and gut feelings…

 

The only reason I even bought into this thread in the first place was to answer some dude who was trying to say that his “evidence” for the Bills trading Edmunds was people mocking a LB to the Bills…. As you have said already,.. The Bills don’t leak this stuff.. and it’s kinda pointless to refer to a mock draft as evidence of something …

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[Matt_In_NH]

I am not sure what a team would be willing to trade for Edmunds on an expensive 1 year rental, you might have to take a later round pick.  If they negotiated an extension with him, he would have more value but that is not likely to happen during the draft, probably not impossible though if there are discussions ahead of time.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

Here's a good breakdown of Lloyd, with lots of tape examples.

 

Lloyd Draft Profile Video

[section122]

Edmunds both good enough to fetch a mid 2nd round pick according to the board and bad enough to be easily replaced by a rookie.

 

Both good enough to be the captain of the #1 defense and also bad at getting the defense aligned and picking the right gaps.

 

Both good enough to be one the field almost every snap for the #1 defense and bad enough that he should be traded after the bills pushed all their chips to the middle this year.

 

Hmmmmm.

[BigAl2526]

Not interested.

[intimidatortj]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

The biggest plays he makes are when they don't throw to the middle of the field because of the 6'5 guy covering their TE etc.  That double clutch causes a sack or a pressure, or forces a throw into coverage, or just generally an incompletion.  It doesn't pop - but the team has basically the #1 3rd down defense since he joined the org - on a majority cover 2/3/4 zone team.  That's a lot of grass for a dude to cover.  

One interesting stat about Tremaine Edmunds and pass coverage is he allows a completion on 75% of targets to the man he is covering.   Not exactly Revis Island.  

Yes, there are other LBers that give up as many completions, but there are plenty that give up a smaller %.

 

 

[Special K]

25 minutes ago, 13 Second Prevent Defense said:

I am not sure what a team would be willing to trade for Edmunds on an expensive 1 year rental, you might have to take a later round pick.  If they negotiated an extension with him, he would have more value but that is not likely to happen during the draft, probably not impossible though if there are discussions ahead of time.

 

I stated that the trade for Edmunds would be contingent on him signing a long term extension....I agree that no team would trade a second round pick for a one year rental.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, intimidatortj said:

One interesting stat about Tremaine Edmunds and pass coverage is he allows a completion on 75% of targets to the man he is covering.   Not exactly Revis Island.  

Yes, there are other LBers that give up as many completions, but there are plenty that give up a smaller %.

 

 

 

So I looked at these numbers - i took out corners and safeties because its not a fair comparison.  I took out small sample sizes of players who started fewer than 8 games.  That gives you a baseline of 63 linebackers (a couple are hybrids). 

 

He's not among the top, nor bottom.  He only had 59 targets for one, which is like 25th - so a few more incompletions and that number goes way down.  The numbers to me show that 75% isn't really that bad - 48 of the 63 players had numbers higher than 70.  Seems to come with the territory that playing MLB in the current era will give you a tough number there.  

 

Bobby Wagner, Denzel Perryman, and Devin White were pro bowlers and all had higher comp% allowed, gave up more yards, and were both targeted more than Edmunds.  

 

Good news!  Matt Milanos 55.2% comp percentage allowed was the best in the NFL among linebackers.  Bad news, his 11.3% missed tackle percentage was the 16th highest in the NFL.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

25 minutes ago, section122 said:

Edmunds both good enough to fetch a mid 2nd round pick according to the board and bad enough to be easily replaced by a rookie.

 

Both good enough to be the captain of the #1 defense and also bad at getting the defense aligned and picking the right gaps.

 

Both good enough to be one the field almost every snap for the #1 defense and bad enough that he should be traded after the bills pushed all their chips to the middle this year.

 

Hmmmmm.

Do you really think they were a #1 defense?

Edmunds started as a rookie why can't another rookie start?

The Bills only need to find one willing trade partner that sees Edmunds and still thinks he will get better. 

Trading Edmunds now is all about avoiding future cost and getting some value now.

The only options are trade now, let him walk and hope you get a 3rd round comp pick, tag him next season or sign him long term after this season. 

It will be interesting to see what they do. I just don't think he is that good. Others feel differently. 

[unbillievable]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The only options are trade now, let him walk and hope you get a 3rd round comp pick, tag him next season or sign him long term after this season. 

It will be interesting to see what they do. I just don't think he is that good. Others feel differently. 

 

I got blasted for saying this, but have the Bills ever gotten a compensatory pick under Beane?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, unbillievable said:

 

I got blasted for saying this, but have the Bills ever gotten a compensatory pick under Beane?

No but in fairness to Beane there really was only one season that it was possible. 

[Shake_My_Head]

3 hours ago, ONEandDONE said:

McDermott runs a single gap system, which focuses heavily on quick penetration by the defensive line to disrupt the offense. The linebackers have gap responsibilities dependent on the formation, they don't get to choose their own gaps lol.

What?   A LBs job is to read and react.   From my view, Edmunds is about 50/50 on correctly diagnosing inside running plays.   It's almost like he's guessing which hole to hit rather than seeing the play unfold.   IMO, after four years, he's no more savvy about MLB play than he was in his second year.   

 

The Bills love him for his length and range in their zone passing defense.   OK, I get that.    But they need an upgrade in their run defense from what Edmunds provides, IMO.    Tackle stats hide where contact is made--near the line of scrimage or 5-years down field.    London Fletcher had a lot of those 5-yard down field tackle stats, just like Edmunds.   

[Special K]

42 minutes ago, section122 said:

Edmunds both good enough to fetch a mid 2nd round pick according to the board and bad enough to be easily replaced by a rookie.

 

 

Not just any rookie....Lloyd is arguably the #1 LB prospect in this draft.

 

I don't think its unreasonable to think he could replace Edmunds and be good right away, and think that Edmunds is good enough to fetch a second round pick, IMO.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Special K

[DrDawkinstein]

30 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

What?   A LBs job is to read and react.   From my view, Edmunds is about 50/50 on correctly diagnosing inside running plays.   It's almost like he's guessing which hole to hit rather than seeing the play unfold.   IMO, after four years, he's no more savvy about MLB play than he was in his second year.   

 

The Bills love him for his length and range in their zone passing defense.   OK, I get that.    But they need an upgrade in their run defense from what Edmunds provides, IMO.    Tackle stats hide where contact is made--near the line of scrimage or 5-years down field.    London Fletcher had a lot of those 5-yard down field tackle stats, just like Edmunds.   

 

 

I'm about as big of an Edmunds "basher" as they come, but the Cover1 guys did a great video that show how much he really is asked to cover. Most of the time, Edmunds has TWO gaps to cover, so he has to wait to see which side of the OLineman the back decides to cut to before he reacts. Otherwise, any halfway decent back will read Edmunds' choice and simply go the other way.

 

If that is the way the scheme works, then anyone we put in MLB will likely still have the same hesitancy. My bigger issue is that when he does finally make the read, and goes to make a tackle, he either gets blocked out or the RB runs right through his arms.

[intimidatortj]

38 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

 

I got blasted for saying this, but have the Bills ever gotten a compensatory pick under Beane?

No Beane has not ever gotten a compensatory pick.

And we won't in 2023 either.   Beane signed way too many players that were UFAs this spring.

 

Why do other teams seem to get compensatory picks, and we don't?

 

One reason is Beane's philosophy of "signing our own".    You have to let players walk if you want to get compensatory picks.  So if he keeps signing our own, it is not going to every happen.

 

Plus he seems to sign a lot of UFAs during free agency.   

[Uncle Monkeyhead]

4 hours ago, dneveu said:

The biggest plays he makes are when they don't throw to the middle of the field because of the 6'5 guy covering their TE etc.  That double clutch causes a sack or a pressure, or forces a throw into coverage, or just generally an incompletion.  It doesn't pop - but the team has basically the #1 3rd down defense since he joined the org - on a majority cover 2/3/4 zone team.  That's a lot of grass for a dude to cover.  

Well said

[Shake_My_Head]

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

I'm about as big of an Edmunds "basher" as they come, but the Cover1 guys did a great video that show how much he really is asked to cover. Most of the time, Edmunds has TWO gaps to cover, so he has to wait to see which side of the OLineman the back decides to cut to before he reacts. Otherwise, any halfway decent back will read Edmunds' choice and simply go the other way.

 

Well, whenever I watch him (and I watch him a lot), he's reacting at the snap and it's 50/50 his first step is going the wrong way.   The RB isn't reading Edmunds, he's hitting the hole the OL is blocking--and Edmunds is in the wrong gap more often than not.   

 

And even when he isn't, I agree with you about his tackling.   It's almost like the thing they like him for the most (his length) works against him in terms of getting leverage and defeating blocks.  He's a "run-around," arm tackler more than a square-up guy.     

[DrDawkinstein]

11 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

 

Well, whenever I watch him (and I watch him a lot), he's reacting at the snap and it's 50/50 his first step is going the wrong way.   The RB isn't reading Edmunds, he's hitting the hole the OL is blocking--and Edmunds is in the wrong gap more often than not.   

 

And even when he isn't, I agree with you about his tackling.   It's almost like the thing they like him for the most (his length) works against him in terms of getting leverage and defeating blocks.  He's a "run-around," arm tackler more than a square-up guy.     

 

Ah, that much I def agree with you on. But when he does manage to go the right way, he still has more than one responsibility to take care of. I try to find as much credit to give him as possible, because it's so easy to bash him and I want to be clear that I DO want to give him a shot and do wish he would be good. But so far, I'm not seeing it.

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

For the most part I disagree with your take. Comparing Poyer to Edmunds just isn't fair to Poyer. I'm not convinced that losing Edmunds would negatively affect the players. Players know that there's always a chance teams could trade or release them especially when it comes to contract time. 

 

Imho, Edmunds is average to good at best. He's very replaceable and his new contract doesn't warrant that type of money. I think the Bills can improve the position and save salary at the same time. I wish him the best in a different uniform. 

 

3 hours ago, mrags said:

Only problems is….. Edmunds isn’t as good as people think he is. It’s his last season with us and he will likely get a contract worth more than $15/y and he’s just not worth that much. You trade him while you can and get something for him to soften the blow. 

Easy answer, you resign Poyer and Hyde to add a few years on each contract with the money you save from Edmunds. You have one of them call the defense since they are incredibly smart and have an overview of the entire field from the S position, until your rookie LB catches on. 

 

Again, my statements are not about whether Edmunds is worth keeping or not. Nor are my statements about whether he is a good player or not. I'm NOT addressing those questions.

 

I'm questioning what effect if any replacing him with a rookie linebacker and trading him away might have on the locker room.

 

Some here are arguing that it wouldn't have much negative effect but those same people are basing their opinion on their own belief that Edmunds isn't any good. That opinion is irrelevant.

 

What's relevant is how valuable his teammates believe Edmunds is.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

Again, my statements are not about whether Edmunds is worth keeping or not. Nor are my statements about whether he is a good player or not. I'm NOT addressing those questions.

 

I'm questioning what effect if any replacing him with a rookie linebacker and trading him away might have on the locker room.

 

Some here are arguing that it wouldn't have much negative effect but those same people are basing their opinion on their own belief that Edmunds isn't any good. That opinion is irrelevant.

 

What's relevant is how valuable his teammates believe Edmunds is.

 

It is true that the Bills, as a whole, are a pretty tight-knit crew. Very family-like.

 

It is also true that it is inevitable we will end up losing some key players to Free Agency as the years pass.

 

If the team and locker room cannot survive the business side of the game forcing out some beloved players, then we arent mentally strong enough to ever win a Super Bowl.

 

Outside of Josh, no one is safe at an individual level.

[Sierra Foothills]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

It is true that the Bills, as a whole, are a pretty tight-knit crew. Very family-like.

 

It is also true that it is inevitable we will end up losing some key players to Free Agency as the years pass.

 

If the team and locker room cannot survive the business side of the game forcing out some beloved players, then we arent mentally strong enough to ever win a Super Bowl.

 

Outside of Josh, no one is safe at an individual level.

 

This is the best response to the question.

 

I would add that you have to view these on a case by case basis.

 

For instance on the surface the Edmunds and Poyer situations might appear to be similar but only those in the organization would have a good idea of how well it would be received if the team drafted a rookie and traded away the veteran in either of these cases.

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

This is the best response to the question.

 

I would add that you have to view these on a case by case basis.

 

For instance on the surface the Edmunds and Poyer situations might appear to be similar but only those in the organization would have a good idea of how well it would be received if the team drafted a rookie and traded away the veteran in either of these cases.

 

It's my personal opinion (cant speak for the actual players) that Beane has enough of a well-established track record of paying guys (Tre White, Milano, Dawkins, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Poyer and Hyde already extended once) that he has the wiggle room to let a guy like Edmunds, and even Poyer, walk and players will chalk it up to the "business", and still believe in Beane's vision for building the team.

 

You have so many guys that already got paid by the Bills, I dont think letting one guy go will undo that. And heck, it could be argued that "All of you who are here who got paid are the reasons why we had to let Edmunds walk".

[RunTheBall]

God the off season can’t end fast enough

 

You guys are high if you think Edmunds is going anywhere this year

 

No way Beane blows up the middle of our D this year when we are primed for a run. If anything, he will draft Edmunds replacement and let him learn for a year.

 

I can’t wait to see this board melt down when Beane gives him an extension. It will be one of those TBD defining moments. And I’m not a big Edmunds fan

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by RunTheBall

[newcam2012]

51 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

Again, my statements are not about whether Edmunds is worth keeping or not. Nor are my statements about whether he is a good player or not. I'm NOT addressing those questions.

 

I'm questioning what effect if any replacing him with a rookie linebacker and trading him away might have on the locker room.

 

Some here are arguing that it wouldn't have much negative effect but those same people are basing their opinion on their own belief that Edmunds isn't any good. That opinion is irrelevant.

 

What's relevant is how valuable his teammates believe Edmunds is.

I'm sure some teammates will miss Edmunds. However, I feel his departure would have little to no effect on current players. Players are used to the football business. Every year the team changes. I don't see Edmunds as the glue or outstanding leader on the defense. I can't recall ever seeing him gathering up the defense and rallying the defense. Perhaps he leads by quiet example. Either way, Edmunds departure will not negatively impact the team. To think otherwise is giving Edmunds way way too much credit. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by newcam2012

[Shake_My_Head]

6 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

No way Beane blows up the middle of our D this year when we are primed for a run. If anything, he will draft Edmunds replacement and let him learn for a year.

Yep, that's Beane's MO.   He'll roll with Edmunds this year and say he's "earned the right to test the market" next year.   Drafting his replacement now is a good idea.