Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[Vickveto]

50 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

There's a lot to like, physically. It's fair to wonder though, why he didn't absolutely dominate in lower division CFB. That's what's keeping me from getting fully onboard. NFL draft history is littered with tons of height/weight/speed freaks who couldn't play WR.

 

At 25 he'd be a pass for me. Moving down (or up from our 2) and he'd be more interesting...

I think averaging 20 yards a catch for your career average  is dominate to me.

[OldTimer1960]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have been doing some re-watches over the weekend and I moved Watson up AGAIN on my board. He is now my 23rd overall player. I can see a scenario where he is the guy I want at #25. 

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him?  A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion.

 

Is he in the conversation at 25?  Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions?

Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either.  Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges.  Is he better than George Pickens, for example?  How about Jahan Dotson?  

 

[Rigotz]

Not a first round prospect.

In the clips posted... or really any of his highlights, take a look at his stride length.

That's a very good thing for straight line speed (i.e. 40 time) but horrible for short and intermediate routes.

 

Any scout will tell you the same. Unpolished routes and can't get in and out of his breaks quickly:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/christian-watson/32005741-5431-6591-b680-d3a3d3536d62

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/christian-watson

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/christian-watson-ndsu-wr-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2022/

 

That limits him to posts and go-routes to find his production.

He also doesn't pluck the ball out of the air. More of a body catcher, which you hate to see.

 

Still valuable, but not 1st round valuable. Like DK Metcalf without the power.

He would be a good long-ball guy short term and a decent gamble late 2nd round if he can develop his short-intermediate game.

 

 

 

 

[Shake_My_Head]

I would light the table on fire and jump on multiple times if we could get Watson!     The guy's intelligence and intangibles are through the roof--which to me, is what separate the tuely great receivers from the good ones.   

 

Having top-end RAS abilities is the cherry on the cake, as only Stevenson has that kind of speed on the roster right now (and I'm not at all sold on him as a WR).

 

That said, I'm not sure about picking Watson at #25.  I know he's a late riser, based on his senior bowl week, but I'd feel more comfortable at the #30-#40 range.   Still, he'd be a perfect compliment to Diggs and Davis, IMO.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Shake_My_Head

[Big Blitz]

[GunnerBill]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him?  A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion.

 

Is he in the conversation at 25?  Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions?

Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either.  Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges.  Is he better than George Pickens, for example?  How about Jahan Dotson?  

 

 

Booth, no. Gordon, tie. Elam, yes. And the three guards, yes. 

 

I have him WR6, Dotson WR7 and Pickens WR8. I agree he is a lower floor guy. But man, the ceiling is astronomical. He explodes off of press coverage and gets deep fast. I think he is a bit of a one trick pony in a sense but that one trick is winning vertically and scoring touchdowns. 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, JBI$111 said:

Yeah I like this guy too, it's not often you have someone that's 6' 4" who runs in the 4.3's.

That’s Randy Moss stuff 

[MrEpsYtown]

I just don’t understand the receiver at 25 crowd. I mean, are you drafting a guy who will push Davis down the depth chart? Or Crowder out of the lineup? That’s fine, but if not you are drafting a part time player. Like why? 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

I just don’t understand the receiver at 25 crowd. I mean, are you drafting a guy who will push Davis down the depth chart? Or Crowder out of the lineup? That’s fine, but if not you are drafting a part time player. Like why? 

 

That is partly why I hated the Emmanuel Sanders deal. We should have known by now is Gabe a legit #2 receiver. I still think he can be but we don't know because we pissed about for half a season with a geriatric running about out there and Gabe on the bench. 

 

The worry I have is if Gabe isn't up to it as a full time workload or if he or Stef go down we have Jake Kumerow playing outside receiver. That is not something I ever wish to see. 

[Putin]

55 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

Everybody wants him in the second round. That means his value is going to go up he will not make it out of the first round he might not even make it till 25.

Stop it please this guy will be there in the middle of the second round  maybe even 3rd round 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Putin

[Coach Tuesday]

He will be 23 when the season starts.  The history of senior WRs transitioning to the NFL is littered with busts.  Would be a very risky pick in Round 1.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

He will be 23 when the season starts.  The history of senior WRs transitioning to the NFL is littered with busts.  Would be a very risky pick in Round 1.

 

Oh it is a risky pick. It is a big swing for the fences. I do think he is slightly different from the normal senior WRs though. They are normally guys who are technically proficient and have racked up big numbers in college but then are not athletically gifted enough for the pros. Watson is the opposite of that. 

 

But no doubt it is risky.

[Shake_My_Head]

8 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Not a first round prospect.

In the clips posted... or really any of his highlights, take a look at his stride length.

That's a very good thing for straight line speed (i.e. 40 time) but horrible for short and intermediate routes.

Gotta disagree.  He's a very fluid runner even with that stride, much like Moss was.   He can change direction at speed, without downshifting, which is very unique for a 6'4" guy.   There's a ton of highlight video with him weaving through DBs after the catch and he'll be a RAC monster, IMO. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

15 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Not a first round prospect.

In the clips posted... or really any of his highlights, take a look at his stride length.

That's a very good thing for straight line speed (i.e. 40 time) but horrible for short and intermediate routes.

Literally came here to post that the kid has “Josh Allen strides”.

 

I wonder if having long strides at top speed means a player necessarily isn’t as good of a short/intermediate runner. 
 

Maybe the long strides only happen once he has hit top speed?

 

10 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I just don’t understand the receiver at 25 crowd. I mean, are you drafting a guy who will push Davis down the depth chart? Or Crowder out of the lineup? That’s fine, but if not you are drafting a part time player. Like why? 

Outside of - and maybe including depending on Dane Jackson or FA additions to come - CB2, that might describe any player we draft given our roster-wide depth. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by JohnBonhamRocks

[Coach Tuesday]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh it is a risky pick. It is a big swing for the fences. I do think he is slightly different from the normal senior WRs though. They are normally guys who are technically proficient and have racked up big numbers in college but then are not athletically gifted enough for the pros. Watson is the opposite of that. 

 

But no doubt it is risky.

But at the very least you’d expect him to dominate lower-level competition he played against and he didn’t even do THAT.  Twice the risk, really.

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is partly why I hated the Emmanuel Sanders deal. We should have known by now is Gabe a legit #2 receiver. I still think he can be but we don't know because we pissed about for half a season with a geriatric running about out there and Gabe on the bench. 

 

The worry I have is if Gabe isn't up to it as a full time workload or if he or Stef go down we have Jake Kumerow playing outside receiver. That is not something I ever wish to see. 

100% we need to draft guys there, but does it have to be a 1? I guess if its BPA that’s fine, or if a guy like Williams falls. I don’t hate the idea of Watson because I don’t know how much he can help us this year anyway. But it certainly adds a high upside development piece who could in theory replace Diggs eventually. But yeah we need a corner bad, and unless all those 1st round corners are all gone, I can’t see us going anywhere else in round 1. 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I just don’t understand the receiver at 25 crowd. I mean, are you drafting a guy who will push Davis down the depth chart? Or Crowder out of the lineup? That’s fine, but if not you are drafting a part time player. Like why? 

 

 

I'll go back to me tryna' sell TSW on the Bills standing pat and drafting the best defensive player in the 2014 draft....... Aaron Donald........when the Bills already had a stacked DL.........they didn't "need" one right then..........but first round picks aren't necessarily about 1st year results.   Dude became the best defensive player of this century so far and is still playing at a superstar level.

 

And Gabe Davis doesn't have the All Pro track record of those Bills DL .......... he is a 500-something yard receiver the past 2 seasons.    

 

He is a projection who failed to beat out a tired Emmanuel Sanders,  struggled with a foot injury yet again,  had a terrible in-season game where he had like 3 catches on 13 targets and also had a costly drop in the Jags loss and missed the second NE game entirely because he wore too much tinfoil under his helmet.   

 

People are so fixated on the playoff game vs KC that they think the Bills have the best 1-2 combo in the league or something.    They don't.

[MrEpsYtown]

11 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Literally came here to post that the kid has “Josh Allen strides”.

 

I wonder if having long strides at top speed means a player necessarily isn’t as good of a short/intermediate runner. 
 

Maybe the long strides only happen once he has hit top speed?

 

Outside of - and maybe including depending on Dane Jackson or FA additions to come - CB2, that might describe any player we draft given our roster-wide depth. 

Really good point here. That’s why I think you should package some picks and try to move up a bit to add one of those top corners. 
 

My hope is that these teams overdraft QBs and go bonkers for these offensive linemen letting the corners slip. 

[Putin]

32 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him?  A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion.

 

Is he in the conversation at 25?  Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions?

Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either.  Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges.  Is he better than George Pickens, for example?  How about Jahan Dotson?  

 

I’m taking Jahan Dotson over him that’s just personal choice 

[NewEra]

35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you sure that you aren’t talking yourself into him?  A lot of talent AND questions in my opinion.

 

Is he in the conversation at 25?  Maybe, based on test scores and Senior Bowl, but is he a better prospect than, say Booth, Elam, Gordon at CB or Smith, Green, Zion Johnson or prospects that could be available at other positions?

Im not saying that he might not be good or even great, but he is not a sure thing (as no other prospects are, too many either.  Still, can’t help but think his floor is lower than guys from major colleges.  Is he better than George Pickens, for example?  How about Jahan Dotson?  

 

I agree with this.  That’s said….as a fan, I’d be happy with Watson, Dotson or Pickens, especially if we land a vet corner.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

100% we need to draft guys there, but does it have to be a 1? I guess if its BPA that’s fine, or if a guy like Williams falls. I don’t hate the idea of Watson because I don’t know how much he can help us this year anyway. But it certainly adds a high upside development piece who could in theory replace Diggs eventually. But yeah we need a corner bad, and unless all those 1st round corners are all gone, I can’t see us going anywhere else in round 1. 

 

 

The Bills need a corner in the same way that they needed a guard when Ryan Bates was a free agent still........and then suddenly didn't.

 

Many fans have this "on paper" notion in their head that drafting a stud cover CB means that player is going to be chasing Tyreek Hill around the field...........and that's not how the Bills play defense.

 

No matter how early you draft that guy he's mostly going to be asked to drop back and make the plays in front of him............a job late rounders and UDFA's have proven to be very adequate at in the Bills defense DESPITE a lack of finishing pass rush in recent seasons.

 

So the Bills may not need a receiver in round 1 but they also don't need a CB with elite man cover skills........which is what you'd BETTER be getting if you invest a 1st rounder in one.

[Putin]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Really good point here. That’s why I think you should package some picks and try to move up a bit to add one of those top corners. 
 

My hope is that these teams overdraft QBs and go bonkers for these offensive linemen letting the corners slip. 

Everyone saying that this is a weak QB class still wouldn’t surprise me to see at least 5 QB’s go in the first round 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

My hope is they sign a veteran and grab a corner or two later in the draft… they’ve been able to make an UDFA(Wallace) and 7th round pick(Jackson) more than serviceable in this defense. Stack the offense early and often and help the guy that makes this team tick(Josh Allen) out.

But imagine what the D could do if they didn't have to hide a weak CB2 sitting in zone.  They might be able to blitz more to get pressure on the QB if they had 2 corners that could be left on their own for 3 seconds or so.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Vickveto said:

 

They said he was the best WR at the senior bowl. Before any combine results.

 

Most athletic WR in the DRAFT.

Gamebreaker✅

KR✅

Gadget ✅

 

 

I would stroke the table gently if Beane thinks it’s the thing to do depending upon their board and how the draft falls. We need to start taking it easy on tables. 

 

I still expect a FA CB to be signed before the draft, because that’s how they roll.

[Putin]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

But imagine what the D could do if they didn't have to hide a weak CB2 sitting in zone.  They might be able to blitz more to get pressure on the QB if they had 2 corners that could be left on their own for 3 seconds or so.

I wouldn’t mind mind at all I just don’t think that’s the kind of defense McD likes to run 

[NewEra]

30 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I just don’t understand the receiver at 25 crowd. I mean, are you drafting a guy who will push Davis down the depth chart? Or Crowder out of the lineup? That’s fine, but if not you are drafting a part time player. Like why? 

This is how I see it.  You have to take into consideration: Diggs’ future contract.  Davis’s future contract.  Crowder on a 1 year cheap deal. Knox a FA next year.  It’s about keeping the cabinets stocked with playmakers and building around 17.  It’s not always about what’s best for the upcoming season.  

[glazeduck]

40 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

I think averaging 20 yards a catch for your career average  is dominate to me.

Having watched more than my fair share of 1-AA football, and comparing "dominant" there, to the NFL, I'm going to strongly disagree.

 

I am not exaggerating when I say that every one of us comes into contact on a regular basis with people who could start at that level, hell, my neighbor DID, and he's 5'6 and (then) was 185lbs. 

 

Unquestionably Watson is an intriguing target, but I just don't feel like it's a risk we need to take, given our current setup. We cannot afford to whiff on our first round pick this year. We just can't. And Watson could very easily be a whiff -- there's plenty to suggest that it's well within his range of outcomes.

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree with this.  That’s said….as a fan, I’d be happy with Watson, Dotson or Pickens, especially if we land a vet corner.  

There's a reason why I took Pickens in the board mock in the first. I think he's got a very real chance to be the best WR in this draft. If the question were him or Watson at 25, it's him by a country mile (then Dotson, then several more country miles, then Watson).

[Rigotz]

25 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

Gotta disagree.  He's a very fluid runner even with that stride, much like Moss was.   He can change direction at speed, without downshifting, which is very unique for a 6'4" guy.   There's a ton of highlight video with him weaving through DBs after the catch and he'll be a RAC monster, IMO. 

 

There's a difference between weaving through DBs after the catch and breaking off sharp in-breaking routes and comebacks (necessary for >50% of an effective route tree).

 

I'm glad you said "weaving" ... that accurately describes what he does well and it's bad for clean route runners.

He plays "high waisted" meaning he can't snap off a comeback route or sell an effective double-move.

 

Show me one highlight where he does this and I'll think otherwise. Watch this route closely and you can see the problem. A subpar DB is all over him because he doesn't respect a fast comeback.

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Booth, no. Gordon, tie. Elam, yes. And the three guards, yes. 

 

I have him WR6, Dotson WR7 and Pickens WR8. I agree he is a lower floor guy. But man, the ceiling is astronomical. He explodes off of press coverage and gets deep fast. I think he is a bit of a one trick pony in a sense but that one trick is winning vertically and scoring touchdowns. 

 

 

Reminds me of Valdez-Scantling. 

[Putin]

I have a feeling we take WR & CB in round 2 & 3 , I think our 1st round pick could surprise all of us 

[H2o]

Not that high on a guy with only three TOTAL 100 yard games in his entire college career, and that was against FCS competition. He never even sniffed 1,000 yards either. People think he's going to come into the NFL, against the best of the best, then turn into an All Pro?  It's laughable. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is partly why I hated the Emmanuel Sanders deal. We should have known by now is Gabe a legit #2 receiver. I still think he can be but we don't know because we pissed about for half a season with a geriatric running about out there and Gabe on the bench. 

 

The worry I have is if Gabe isn't up to it as a full time workload or if he or Stef go down we have Jake Kumerow playing outside receiver. That is not something I ever wish to see. 

I am hoping it was Daboll who was infatuated with quick tiny WRs and Gabe just never won him completely over. His play to me has always been clutch and very good even as a rookie and obviously his kc playoff game was incredible 

[Putin]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

Not that high on a guy with only three TOTAL 100 yard games in his entire college career, and that was against FCS competition. He never even sniffed 1,000 yards either. People think he's going to come into the NFL, against the best of the best, then turn into an All Pro?  It's laughable. 

I mean nobody really knows and you could be right , or he might turnout to be another Eric Moulds 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But imagine what the D could do if they didn't have to hide a weak CB2 sitting in zone.  

 

 

Their defensive system is built around executing a complex zone scheme...........they aren't "hiding" a CB2 in zone.........that's what they play.

 

And even if they invest the equivalent of a $20M+ chip into a CB in round 1........that CB is still going to mostly be doing the things that Levi and Dane have been asked to do.

 

They aren't going to be running a "box and one" concept where one CB with good man cover skills is running around rogue while the rest of the defense is adhering to their zone concepts/responsibilities.  

 

The Bills drafting a stud cover talent at CB is akin to drafting a deep threat WR when your QB can't get the ball over the top of a defense.........it's talent totally wasted if you can't use it.         

[wppete]

I’d be happy with him at #25. He is a freak and looks very competitive. But I’m almost convinced we are going CB in the first round. 

[Rigotz]

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

Not that high on a guy with only three TOTAL 100 yard games in his entire college career, and that was against FCS competition. He never even sniffed 1,000 yards either. People think he's going to come into the NFL, against the best of the best, then turn into an All Pro?  It's laughable. 

 

I'm all for betting on traits instead of production, but this guy lacks serious traits outside of straight-line speed, RAC, and height.

[H2o]

Just now, Putin said:

I mean nobody really knows and you could be right , or he might turnout to be another Eric Moulds 

Eric Moulds put up better numbers at Miss. St., before all the rules changes, in the SEC than this guy did against FCS competition. Please, don't compare a Bills great to this fool's gold prospect. 

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

I'm all for betting on traits instead of production, but this guy lacks serious traits outside of straight-line speed, RAC, and height.

Bingo. Traits should lead to production, especially when his QB is a top 5 pick.

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, H2o said:

Eric Moulds put up better numbers at Miss. St., before all the rules changes, in the SEC than this guy did against FCS competition. Please, don't compare a Bills great to this fool's gold prospect. 

Eric Moulds playing  with Josh Allen would be a HOF’er !!! 

[John from Riverside]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills need a corner in the same way that they needed a guard when Ryan Bates was a free agent still........and then suddenly didn't.

 

Many fans have this "on paper" notion in their head that drafting a stud cover CB means that player is going to be chasing Tyreek Hill around the field...........and that's not how the Bills play defense.

 

No matter how early you draft that guy he's mostly going to be asked to drop back and make the plays in front of him............a job late rounders and UDFA's have proven to be very adequate at in the Bills defense DESPITE a lack of finishing pass rush in recent seasons.

 

So the Bills may not need a receiver in round 1 but they also don't need a CB with elite man cover skills........which is what you'd BETTER be getting if you invest a 1st rounder in one.

The people downplaying the need at corner will be the FIRST ones next season bitching about how we cant stop the pass......book it