Daniel Jeremiah Mock Draft 2.0 - Bills take Treylon Burks: 3.0 - Bills take Breece Hall

[Warcodered]

44 minutes ago, H2o said:

Let's not forget the Bills were REALLY high on Travis Etienne last year and he very well could have been the pick if Jax didn't take him before us.

I mean maybe at the same time I'm not sure I'd trust any of those draft rumors more than the FA ones that were all wrong.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But he isn't the number 1 prospect according to PFF.  They have Kenneth Walker.

 

Anyways, I preferred the first mock when they had the Bills getting Treylon Burks.  With WRs getting ridiculously expensive, it's worth the shot to try and home grow a really good one.

 

Our FA isn't done, Beane still has a little CB magic he's been holding onto.

I have Walker #1 too.  Hall might be a better fit for the bills due to his pass catching ability.  Not sure if Walker can or cannot excel in the pass game since he hadn’t really been asked to very often.  
 

i’d be happy with Burks or any of the top 5 WRs, top 5-6 corners or even top 1-2 IOL.  Prefer not IOL due too positional value, but a beast RG could pay huge dividends for the run and pass game 

[mrags]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol….I hate you? You take this too seriously I suppose. Do you. 
 

yeah, we were really hindered last year…..when the OL had their heads up their *****.  When they got their **** together, the run game was just fine.  Our lack of talent @ running back had nothing to do with us losing to the chiefs.  
 

Motor was a better rb than the cam Akers we saw in the playoffs. He was nowhere near 💯….yet they won the super bowl.  
 

The Bucs had a dominant OL, the best qb ever, the best WRs in the league and a monster D……fournette is and was good. He’s better than motor.  They didn’t need him to win the super bowl. 
 

the chiefs had Damian Williams.  Yup.  
 

the pats had Michel.  Jag.

 

the eagles had who?  Mmhmm.

blount, Cj Anderson, just keep going and going.  The backs that win SB are average starting running backs in most cases. Most of those teams had good to great OL

and a star qb…..while RB could be filled By most starting RBs in the league.  
 

sure….we could upgrade motor.  No doubt.  He’s not a great rb.  But he improved a great deal in 2022 and is worthy of being a starter on a team that can’t afford to pay big bucks or waste a 1st rd pick on a RB.  
 

He’s good enough to make you pay when left alone.  He showed that last year when we started to lean on him.  He thrived in the goal line at the end of the year and was scoring TD after TD when given the opportunity.  He was catching balls out of the backfield and making teams pay.  
 

but like you said….we shouldn’t draft a Rb @ 25.  Nice talk.

Man. Just imagine what we could do with an actual good RB.  

For those of you still wondering about the effectiveness out of a 4.65 40 time for a RB. Took me a whole 13 seconds to look it up. 
 

https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/what-40-yard-dash-times-produce-the-best-running-backs-dd5d35eab471

 

Worst: 4:60–4.69

If a running back runs in the 4.60's statistically they are already at a disadvantage to be a top running back. These running backs typically don’t last in the NFL for that long only averaging 4.6 seasons. This results in them obtaining less yards during their tenure in the NFL. They are also the second worst time in yards per attempt, and in the bottom half of ranking of running backs in the top 10%. There’s a debate that running backs who run in the 4.80’s are worse but since the sample size is too small compared to 4.60–4.69, there’s more confidence that the stats for the 4.60’s are more accurate and closer to the actual result.

[Doc]

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Man. Just imagine what we could do with an actual good RB.  

For those of you still wondering about the effectiveness out of a 4.65 40 time for a RB. Took me a whole 13 seconds to look it up. 
 

https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/what-40-yard-dash-times-produce-the-best-running-backs-dd5d35eab471

 

Worst: 4:60–4.69

If a running back runs in the 4.60's statistically they are already at a disadvantage to be a top running back. These running backs typically don’t last in the NFL for that long only averaging 4.6 seasons. This results in them obtaining less yards during their tenure in the NFL. They are also the second worst time in yards per attempt, and in the bottom half of ranking of running backs in the top 10%. There’s a debate that running backs who run in the 4.80’s are worse but since the sample size is too small compared to 4.60–4.69, there’s more confidence that the stats for the 4.60’s are more accurate and closer to the actual result.

Yeah, a faster rb could help. I agree.  So would a better corner.  A better WR.  Possible stars at premium positions that we can control….rather than a position where you can get a solid starter for 3-5 and will have a Mongo 5th year option that minght even be worth picking up.  
 

So if you’re Beane, what would you do if Breece Hall is available @ 25?  My guess would be draft a CB or WR or trade down (because that’s so easy) and draft Hall in the 2nd….but somehow be able to trade down just far enough where you know that no one else would take him. 

 

You sound like you’re making an argument to take a RB @ 25….. is that the case?

[mrags]

58 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, a faster rb could help. I agree.  So would a better corner.  A better WR.  Possible stars at premium positions that we can control….rather than a position where you can get a solid starter for 3-5 and will have a Mongo 5th year option that minght even be worth picking up.  
 

So if you’re Beane, what would you do if Breece Hall is available @ 25?  My guess would be draft a CB or WR or trade down (because that’s so easy) and draft Hall in the 2nd….but somehow be able to trade down just far enough where you know that no one else would take him. 

 

You sound like you’re making an argument to take a RB @ 25….. is that the case?

IOL or CB is way too much of a need to draft RB at 25. I admit that. WR was but then we signed Crowder and I feel like they will settle for a 3-5rd WR (with this years depth). Davis and Diggs will start on the outside, McKenzie abs Crowder will see a lot in the slot. A 3-5th rd rookie will likely be a true speed guy and will get in situationally. 
 

I would probably draft Zion or Kenyon in the first if they are there and either Elam, Stingley, Booth, Mcduffie aren’t there. If all 6 are gone, there’s a good chance you can get Olave, Dotson, Burks, Williams. 
 

I wouldn’t expect a trade back and pick up extra picks but a trade back up into the 2nd round is much more believable. We’ve shown we are willing to do that in the past. Willing to give up a 1st round pick, or multiple picks in the following year to do so. 
 

Best scenario for me would probably be:

-Williams or Olave in the first

-trade back into early to mid rd 2 if Hall is there and take him there. 
-if you still keep your 57th pick, take the best corner available, or best IOL. Likely McCreary, Woolen, Gordon, Emerson, Rhyan, Smith, Hayes. 

 

they have plenty of mid to late round picks to trade up with. Since they likely won’t make the team anyway. And since we’re in win now mode, next years picks could be a way to make some of that happen. 
 

of course this isn’t Madden and not 100% possible. But there’s ways to move around on draft day. I fully expect Beane to be moving up and down throughout the days. 
 

Edited March 23, 2022 by mrags

[PauleeeWalnuts]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

Has to be…after losing Levi and knowing Tre probably won’t be ready until Oct/Nov….they’re running thin at CB

[NewEra]

51 minutes ago, mrags said:

IOL or CB is way too much of a need to draft RB at 25. I admit that. WR was but then we signed Crowder and I feel like they will settle for a 3-5rd WR (with this years depth). Davis and Diggs will start on the outside, McKenzie abs Crowder will see a lot in the slot. A 3-5th rd rookie will likely be a true speed guy and will get in situationally. 
 

I would probably draft Zion or Kenyon in the first if they are there and either Elam, Stingley, Booth, Mcduffie aren’t there. If all 6 are gone, there’s a good chance you can get Olave, Dotson, Burks, Williams. 
 

I wouldn’t expect a trade back and pick up extra picks but a trade back up into the 2nd round is much more believable. We’ve shown we are willing to do that in the past. Willing to give up a 1st round pick, or multiple picks in the following year to do so. 
 

Best scenario for me would probably be:

-Williams or Olave in the first

-trade back into early to mid rd 2 if Hall is there and take him there. 
-if you still keep your 57th pick, take the best corner available, or best IOL. Likely McCreary, Woolen, Gordon, Emerson, Rhyan, Smith, Hayes. 

 

they have plenty of mid to late round picks to trade up with. Since they likely won’t make the team anyway. And since we’re in win now mode, next years picks could be a way to make some of that happen. 
 

of course this isn’t Madden and not 100% possible. But there’s ways to move around on draft day. I fully expect Beane to be moving up and down throughout the days. 
 

Great post.  Agree with all of this except trading up for a RB part.  We’d be in a bad spot at CB2 and RG.   If we can somehow address RG (Bates) and Cb2 (Haden) in free agency, I’d be 💯 down with trading up for a stud like Hall or Walker.  Maybe Beane can make it happen.  

[mrags]

23 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Great post.  Agree with all of this except trading up for a RB part.  We’d be in a bad spot at CB2 and RG.   If we can somehow address RG (Bates) and Cb2 (Haden) in free agency, I’d be 💯 down with trading up for a stud like Hall or Walker.  Maybe Beane can make it happen.  

That all part of it. I don’t expect them to go into the draft with the CBs currently on the roster. 
 

and I will continue to admit that I don’t think a RB in rd1 is a priority. Nor do I think it is with a move up assuming nothing else changes. My arguments are, and will be that we need a game breaking RB. Doesn’t matter where he comes from, or how we get him. Our offense is missing that piece. 
 

I was not interested in CMC because he’s making too much and he’s constantly hurt. But I would take a flyer in Barkley because his price tag is significantly less. I’ve been a fan of trading Edmunds for Barkley. Saving about 5m. Drafting your MLB in the 3-4th rd 

Edited March 23, 2022 by mrags

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

That all part of it. I don’t expect them to go into the draft with the CBs currently on the roster. 
 

and I will continue to admit that I don’t think a RB in rd1 is a priority. Nor do I think it is with a move up assuming nothing else changes. My arguments are, and will be that we need a game breaking RB. Doesn’t matter where he comes from, or how we get him. Our offense is missing that piece. 
 

I was not interested in CMC because he’s making too much and he’s constantly hurt. But I would take a flyer in Barkley because his price tag is significantly less. I’ve been a fan of reading Edmunds for Barkley. Saving about 5m. Drafting your MLB in the 3-4th rd 

That’s where we disagree.  We need to win a super bowl.  And it’s been proven that we don’t NEED a game breaking rb to win a super bowl. We have Josh Allen.  Much lesser QBs have won the super bowl with non game breaking RBs. But Josh Allen NEEDS a game breaking rb?  Nonsense.  We need our coaching staff to not fail in the playoffs….that’s all.

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

I don't see why, we had to be planning on needing to get past Hill twice this season anyway.

[Logic]

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

[FLFan]

Breece Hall would be a terrible choice.  A “fire Beane moment”. Wrong position, wrong player, wrong era. 

[mrags]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s where we disagree.  We need to win a super bowl.  And it’s been proven that we don’t NEED a game breaking rb to win a super bowl. We have Josh Allen.  Much lesser QBs have won the super bowl with non game breaking RBs. But Josh Allen NEEDS a game breaking rb?  Nonsense.  We need our coaching staff to not fail in the playoffs….that’s all.

I won’t disagree that we “were” close to winning a SB. Our offense may take a step forward this year or may take a step back. Could be down a RG. Could be down the safety net that Beasley brought for Josh. Could be down the veteran leadership that Sanders brought. I personally believe we’ve upgraded at WR but remains to be seen. Cole was a first down machine. 
 

and I agree that the coaching cost us the game against the chiefs.  It at the same time I don’t know if I believe McDermott will learn from it. He hasn’t shown me that yet. He constantly makes bad game time decisions imo. 
 

but if the Offense and Allen had a RB to lean on, they may have won another game or 2 throughout the year. Like the 50mph wind game against Pats. Or the Steelers game. Or the Jags game. Giving us home field in the playoffs and less of a worry about the Chiefs in the divisional game. 
 

regardless what happens, they can’t be overly happy about the production of their backfield. If they were, they wouldn’t keep drafting 3rd rounders. They wouldn’t keep picking up FAs like Breida, Johnson, Mckissic. 

[mrags]

49 minutes ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I’d expect him to get on top of the WR room before the RB room if that was the case. But they would have to be there to make it worth it for them. 

the only ones that have a shot at making it to us at 25 and only ones worthy of picking there are:

Burks

Williams

Olave

Dotson 

 

After that you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and get a guy like:

Watson

Pickens

Pierce

Metchie

 

After that I think to wait until rd 4-5 and try for:

Thornton

Phillips

Gray

 

I am not a fan at all of Austin III

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

50 minutes ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I do think bills go RB at some point. I think the only way beane goes Hall is if the value at cb,wr, and ol are low at 25. But chances are there should be value at those positions at 25.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, mrags said:

I won’t disagree that we “were” close to winning a SB. Our offense may take a step forward this year or may take a step back. Could be down a RG. Could be down the safety net that Beasley brought for Josh. Could be down the veteran leadership that Sanders brought. I personally believe we’ve upgraded at WR but remains to be seen. Cole was a first down machine. 
 

and I agree that the coaching cost us the game against the chiefs.  It at the same time I don’t know if I believe McDermott will learn from it. He hasn’t shown me that yet. He constantly makes bad game time decisions imo. 
 

but if the Offense and Allen had a RB to lean on, they may have won another game or 2 throughout the year. Like the 50mph wind game against Pats. Or the Steelers game. Or the Jags game. Giving us home field in the playoffs and less of a worry about the Chiefs in the divisional game. 
 

regardless what happens, they can’t be overly happy about the production of their backfield. If they were, they wouldn’t keep drafting 3rd rounders. They wouldn’t keep picking up FAs like Breida, Johnson, Mckissic. 

I hear ya….but Breece hall doesn’t make a difference in the jags game or the 50Mph wind game.  It’s the OL that lost us those games 💯.  There were no holes.  No holes for the majority of the 1st half of the season.  Look at what motor did down the stretch.
 

Upgrade the OL….and the jags and pats game don’t happen.  The OL is was lost the super bowl for the bengals.  And look at the nfc super bowl prospects- rams- beast pass rush. Tampa- beast pass rush.  Niners- beast pass rush.  Packers solid pass rush.  Vikings- beast pass rush.  
 

OL >>>>>>>> RB.  
 

agree to disagree 

[mrags]

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I hear ya….but Breece hall doesn’t make a difference in the jags game or the 50Mph wind game.  It’s the OL that lost us those games 💯.  There were no holes.  No holes for the majority of the 1st half of the season.  Look at what motor did down the stretch.
 

Upgrade the OL….and the jags and pats game don’t happen.  The OL is was lost the super bowl for the bengals.  And look at the nfc super bowl prospects- rams- beast pass rush. Tampa- beast pass rush.  Niners- beast pass rush.  Packers solid pass rush.  Vikings- beast pass rush.  
 

OL >>>>>>>> RB.  
 

agree to disagree 

I actually agree with you about OL. And even assuming we don’t get Bates back I still believe we’ve upgraded at OL this off-season. Saffold is a huge upgrade for us. Yes we need a RG. And yes we need depth. But that could potentially be found in the 2-4th rounds. Williams was terrible at RG. And you are correct that down the stretch out line got better. Maybe that was Bates. Or maybe that was Brown playing better and being more comfortable. Maybe it was the consistency of all 5 playing together for the first time all year. 
 

there’s plenty of what if’s. End of the day we lost a chance at the SB because the coaching of McDermott imo. But that doesn’t mean every season will be the same. 
 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I agree with you, that Singletary is replaceable.  And to stay ahead of the game they should get a replacement now.  But Singletary was a 3rd round pick and I don't think they need to invest more than that.  They have WR, CB, IOL, then RB.  If someone is there at Rd 3 or 4, should be a consideration.

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree with you, that Singletary is replaceable.  And to stay ahead of the game they should get a replacement now.  But Singletary was a 3rd round pick and I don't think they need to invest more than that.  They have WR, CB, IOL, then RB.  If someone is there at Rd 3 or 4, should be a consideration.

That’s completely understandable by almost everyone here. The bigger argument is…. Take the 4-5th best CB, 4-5th best WR, 2-4th best OL, or the 1-2nd best RB. Once you hit a drop off in any of those positions you might as well just wait another round or 2. Maximize your pick where you have it. 

[par73]

I think CB will be the #1 priority. If a receiver slips down that they really like, I can see them going that way. RB in the 1st would be a shocker.

[CDogg20]

2 hours ago, FLFan said:

Breece Hall would be a terrible choice.  A “fire Beane moment”. Wrong position, wrong player, wrong era. 

That would be a fire Beane moment? He brought us our franchise qb, a league leader at wr. A tight end finally worth something and a hof pass rusher. Oh and Ed Oliver who’s becoming an absolute monster. But yeah drafting a 1st round running back…fire him. 
 

 

How quickly some of us forget how miserable we were for 20 years. 

[Einstein's Dog]

38 minutes ago, mrags said:

That’s completely understandable by almost everyone here. The bigger argument is…. Take the 4-5th best CB, 4-5th best WR, 2-4th best OL, or the 1-2nd best RB. Once you hit a drop off in any of those positions you might as well just wait another round or 2. Maximize your pick where you have it. 

The FO would have tiers, and I'm thinking there are about 5-6 WRs in the top tier.  The top tier should have a much higher rate of being a stud.  A stud WR is a much more valuable asset than a stud RB financially.   Just look at the figures of the top 5 FA WRs vs the top 5 FA RBs - it's not close.

 

Also missing and getting an average WR fills the Sanders spot of $6M for 3-4 years while hitting and getting a good RB is only replacing Singletary's meager salary.

 

If the player is really good you would want to renegotiate their contract a year before they hit FA to keep them.  It's a bad idea to give an RB a second contract early (see Dallas/Zeke or Car/McCaffery)

 

I agree you want maximum value out of your picks.  

 

[JROC INTEL]

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The FO would have tiers, and I'm thinking there are about 5-6 WRs in the top tier.  The top tier should have a much higher rate of being a stud.  A stud WR is a much more valuable asset than a stud RB financially.   Just look at the figures of the top 5 FA WRs vs the top 5 FA RBs - it's not close.

 

Also missing and getting an average WR fills the Sanders spot of $6M for 3-4 years while hitting and getting a good RB is only replacing Singletary's meager salary.

 

If the player is really good you would want to renegotiate their contract a year before they hit FA to keep them.  It's a bad idea to give an RB a second contract early (see Dallas/Zeke or Car/McCaffery)

 

I agree you want maximum value out of your picks.  

 

This is exactly one of my arguments for getting a RB in the draft. Even more so with the 1st round. You have the ability to sign to the 5th year option. This year Barkley is on the 5th year option and only costing about 7m. Here’s a breakdown of 5th year options prices for each position currently. 
 

Fifth-year option salaries for players who achieve playtime criterion

Quarterback | $22.4 million

Running Back | $5.7 million

Wide Receiver | $13.4 million

Tight End | $6.9 million

Offensive Lineman | $13.2 million

Defensive End | $12.4 million

Defensive Tackle | $10.8 million

Linebacker | $11.7 million

Cornerback | $12.0 million

Safety | $7.9 million

Special Teams | $3.9 million

 

it actually makes sense to draft a 1st round RB because the potential for that player being the best at their position in the draft is greater than almost any other position. And with RBs you have the chances of a rookie coming in right away and being a difference maker is greater than almost any position as they have the smallest learning curve. This way you get the most out of the position in the first 4-5 years and can rinse/repeat. It’s much easier to replace that RB than it is to replace a OL or WR or CB. Which is why, when you get a true starter at one of those positions, you resign them. Like White, Dawkins, Diggs, Davis,etc. One of my bigger issues with Singletary at this point. Unless he’s signing a new contract for league minimum, does anyone really want to pay him? I mean it’s not my money, but if he wants a raise he can go as far as I’m concerned. Sucks that Moss hasn’t done anything to relieve the stress of losing Singletary. He’s been even more unforgettable. 

8 minutes ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

Not a terrible idea. Because you have holes and the position is deep. You could possibly walk away with 2 starters. Problem is, what happens when White comes back? Someone that has ability to start is sitting on the bench picking their nose. Probably better to try and fill starting spots at multiple positions. 

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

This is exactly one of my arguments for getting a RB in the draft. Even more so with the 1st round. You have the ability to sign to the 5th year option. This year Barkley is on the 5th year option and only costing about 7m. Here’s a breakdown of 5th year options prices for each position currently. 
 

Fifth-year option salaries for players who achieve playtime criterion

Quarterback | $22.4 million

Running Back | $5.7 million

Wide Receiver | $13.4 million

Tight End | $6.9 million

Offensive Lineman | $13.2 million

Defensive End | $12.4 million

Defensive Tackle | $10.8 million

Linebacker | $11.7 million

Cornerback | $12.0 million

Safety | $7.9 million

Special Teams | $3.9 million

 

it actually makes sense to draft a 1st round RB because the potential for that player being the best at their position in the draft is greater than almost any other position. And with RBs you have the chances of a rookie coming in right away and being a difference maker is greater than almost any position as they have the smallest learning curve. This way you get the most out of the position in the first 4-5 years and can rinse/repeat. It’s much easier to replace that RB than it is to replace a OL or WR or CB. Which is why, when you get a true starter at one of those positions, you resign them. Like White, Dawkins, Diggs, Davis,etc. One of my bigger issues with Singletary at this point. Unless he’s signing a new contract for league minimum, does anyone really want to pay him? I mean it’s not my money, but if he wants a raise he can go as far as I’m concerned. Sucks that Moss hasn’t done anything to relieve the stress of losing Singletary. He’s been even more unforgettable. 

Not a terrible idea. Because you have holes and the position is deep. You could possibly walk away with 2 starters. Problem is, what happens when White comes back? Someone that has ability to start is sitting on the bench picking their nose. Probably better to try and fill starting spots at multiple positions. 

The top 5 rushing leaders last season, 4 of the 5 were drafted in the 2nd round. Because most teams go with premium positions in the 1st round.

[YoloinOhio]

22 minutes ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

No thanks - one is enough

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

The top 5 rushing leaders last season, 4 of the 5 were drafted in the 2nd round. Because most teams go with premium positions in the 1st round.

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

[Motor26]

17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

No thanks - one is enough

I think they should probably take two corners in the draft, but maybe more like round 1 and round 5.

17 minutes ago, mrags said:

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

So what would happen after the 5th year option for Taylor if they had it? Would they just let him walk after 5 years and then draft a new RB? Because if you don’t want to pay the running back once his contract is up, why waste high draft assets on him instead of a corner/Edge/OT/WR you would plan on resigning? 

[mrags]

16 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

I think they should probably take two corners in the draft, but maybe more like round 1 and round 5.

So what would happen after the 5th year option for Taylor if they had it? Would they just let him walk after 5 years and then draft a new RB? Because if you don’t want to pay the running back once his contract is up, why waste high draft assets on him instead of a corner/Edge/OT/WR you would plan on resigning? 

Because you get that one extra year out of him at a reasonable price. Hell, you could even franchise tag him for a reasonable price for a year or 2. 
 

RBs get up to speed in the nfl quicker than almost any position. Therefore you are getting them at their primes almost on their rookie deals. The life expectancy of a RB in the league is lowest of every position. More of a reason to take a young rookie and ride him out. Rinse/repeat. 

[Motor26]

10 minutes ago, mrags said:

Because you get that one extra year out of him at a reasonable price. Hell, you could even franchise tag him for a reasonable price for a year or 2. 
 

RBs get up to speed in the nfl quicker than almost any position. Therefore you are getting them at their primes almost on their rookie deals. The life expectancy of a RB in the league is lowest of every position. More of a reason to take a young rookie and ride him out. Rinse/repeat. 

The life expectancy is the lowest of every position, you just keep giving more reasons to not select a running back in the first round. 

[mrags]

15 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

The life expectancy is the lowest of every position, you just keep giving more reasons to not select a running back in the first round. 

That’s exactly why you draft one in the first round. If you take a WR or OL it could take a few years for them to become accustomed to the NFL. Someone like Gabe Davis who takes 2-3 years to breakout. Still having the ability to sign him to his 2nd contract on a reasonable deal. Where as the RB position usually gets put in right away and produces right away (the good ones anyway). And you ride out their good years while you can get them. And you get an extra year with a 5th year option. Everyone understands and agrees that you almost never sign a RB to their 2nd contract. Which is why you take the best one you can get from the start. Or else you have someone like Singletary or Moss underperforming for your offense until you rinse/repeat. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

Everyone in the nfl knows those contracts are huge mistakes.  Each and every one.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rb contracts decrease in the coming years.  Chubb, 12M, Henry 12M, cook 12M aaron jones 12M.  All better than zeke.  All make 3M less than him even though they signed a year or two or three after him.  Meanwhile the highest paid players at other positions continue to soar

[mrags]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Everyone in the nfl knows those contracts are huge mistakes.  Each and every one.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rb contracts decrease in the coming years.  Chubb, 12M, Henry 12M, cook 12M aaron jones 12M.  All better than zeke.  All make 3M less than him even though they signed a year or two or three after him.  Meanwhile the highest paid players at other positions continue to soar

Highest paid players at positions of skill are sky high. Inflation brought us that. Inflation and greed. I don’t expect ANY pay scale to decrease for any single position in the league moving forward at this point. There may be less high paid players at the RB position only because teams can’t find stud RBs or go with RBBC because they can’t afford to sign high profile RBs along with their 40m+ QBs, 20m+ WRs, 20m+ DEs. But I’d imagine if you asked the Colts, Saints, Titans how they feel about their RBs they wouldn’t  trade them for some scrub that needs a backup because they can’t do it all. 
 

I think you could use the same analogy with how McDermott and Beane have missed on the DL since they got here. They’ve had to overpay for average at best vets at the DL, draft multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. And still had to use a rotation because they couldn’t get the production out of their intended starters. They ended up spending the same amount on Butler, Addison, Hughes as it took to sign a true pass rusher like Miller. I guarantee, now that we have someone like Von, we don’t see nearly as much of a rotation. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

Booth @ 25

Mccreary or Gordon @ 57

Not a horrible idea doubling down on finding Tre's partner. Then find a speed receiver at 89.....

[mrags]

14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Booth @ 25

Mccreary or Gordon @ 57

Not a horrible idea doubling down on finding Tre's partner. Then find a speed receiver at 89.....

It’s not a terrible idea if you don’t think Tre will be back to normal for a while. But if he’s back to normal sooner than later, you are wasting a pick and sitting someone the majority of the time when they should be on the field. A 2nd round pick should see considerable time throughout the season. Could probably take a OL or WR at 2-3 and still get your stud CB in the first and be better off. 

[Coach Tuesday]

15 hours ago, H2o said:

Let's not forget the Bills were REALLY high on Travis Etienne last year and he very well could have been the pick if Jax didn't take him before us. He was clearly looking for a homerun hitter out of the backfield. Breece Hall has 3 years' worth of REALLY good college production. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield. He could be that RB threat they are looking for this year. I would not be surprised if Beane did this, especially if Tre is doing well in his rehab and Bates is retained. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/breece-hall-1.html

 

 

TBH not seeing a ton of explosiveness and those are his HIGHLIGHTS.  That is not a first round athlete imo.

[FLFan]

10 hours ago, CDogg20 said:

That would be a fire Beane moment? He brought us our franchise qb, a league leader at wr. A tight end finally worth something and a hof pass rusher. Oh and Ed Oliver who’s becoming an absolute monster. But yeah drafting a 1st round running back…fire him. 
 

 

How quickly some of us forget how miserable we were for 20 years. 

I was obviously using a little hyperbole there.  Chill.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

TBH not seeing a ton of explosiveness and those are his HIGHLIGHTS.  That is not a first round athlete imo.

Here’s a nice breakdown for you 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Joe B also has the Bills taking Hall.