Zuerlein mock draft...Jordan Davis DT

[Mr. WEO]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see the relevance.  To s*** on picking Williams @25 is 👎🏻.  He’s a helluva player and while he won’t be 💯 by week 1 or maybe this year, he likely will be by year 2-5 and beyond.  He’s electric.  We need electric, even if it means not having his full capabilities until 2023 and beyond.  I’d rather have London, Wilson and maybe olave, but there’s a chance all are gone and he’s the next best guy, who was probably the #1 guy before injury. Worth it imo

the relevance obviously is that Akers was a no risk pick regarding his physical condition. 

[NewEra]

48 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

the relevance obviously is that Akers was a no risk pick regarding his physical condition. 

He was only brought up to show how fast he recovered….from an injury that was once thought to be career threatening.  He’s back in less than 1/2 a year.  
 

I bet the titans are pissed that they wasted a few months waiting for Jeffery Simmons to recover from his torn acl.  Meanwhile we passed on him and took Ed.  Ed is a monster in his own right, but Simmons > Ed right now.  There is no doubt. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 2/11/2022 at 4:10 PM, ddaryl said:

That would be a real good pick.... but at the same time that would be a lot of high draft picks on the DL in the last 3 drafts

However a freakish sized behemoth for the middle of the DL is still welcomed IMO... Star is undependable

 

Have you looked much at the bills upcoming FA's  They have 8 on offense, 8 on defense and T Jones on ST. 

 

Of the 8 on offense only I'll call it 1.5 Bates an Sanders were much of main contributors by year end.

 

On defense, the Bills had 11 D lineman on their 53 man roster, but five of them are upcoming FA, Hughes, Addison, Phillips, Zimmer, and Butler.  Add in many think they will cut Star. So even though they've drafted a number of D lineman, they are in need of more either through the draft or free agency.  In addition to these five, Wallace and Neal are also FA's so in spite of what many here feel about needing to draft on offense this season, there does seem to still be more need to draft on defensive side.  Maybe they will address these spots through free agency pickups, then things could change.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

He was only brought up to show how fast he recovered….from an injury that was once thought to be career threatening.  He’s back in less than 1/2 a year.  
 

I bet the titans are pissed that they wasted a few months waiting for Jeffery Simmons to recover from his torn acl.  Meanwhile we passed on him and took Ed.  Ed is a monster in his own right, but Simmons > Ed right now.  There is no doubt. 

it’s possible they would roll the dice on him.  Upside is certainly higher than the last several 1st rounders not named Josh Allen

[BADOLBILZ]

23 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I am a huge fan of JD but I have a feeling his stock is going to rise fast as there isn’t as much depth at DT as there is in other positions 

 

I don't know if I'd say there isn't much depth.

 

There are actually an inordinate amount of enormous 350# space eating DT's that are currently projected as late picks or UDFA's.

 

Marquan McCall from Kentucky is like 380 and was a 4 star recruit.

 

Long time NFL stud Luther Ellis' son Noah weighs in around 350.

 

Tayland Humphrey from Louisiana is around 350.

 

They may all prove to not be able to cut it but it's not terribly uncommon to find good, big DT's late in the draft.

 

Big, space eating DT's(like Norman Hand or Snacks Harrison to name a couple of many) can easily fly under the radar because the college offensive game is typically very quick hitting and it's really easy to avoid or negate the impact of players who play a power game in a small area of the field.

 

And while some big DT's do hit...........I like my chances getting the most violence out of a hungry hippo rather than giving $8M-$9M guaranteed to a Vernon Butler or Jordan Phillips type right out of the gate.

[BarleyNY]

8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Anyone who selects a DT with their first pick in the draft has no understanding of value, by which I mean how a player added to the team can make a difference between wins and losses.

 

 

So you’re saying that Beane doesn’t know what he’s doing because he took Oliver 7th overall?

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So you’re saying that Beane doesn’t know what he’s doing because he took Oliver 7th overall?

 

Well as solid as Oliver has been from day one..........he certainly hasn't been the exception to the rule that a lot of us thought he would be.

 

1st round draft stock pound for pound.......and #7 is a BIG chip.......Oliver might be the worst bang for the buck Beane has gotten.

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Seems like a Vince wildork type move.  But like others have said we keep spending such high picks on the d line. I’d like to see a high pick at wr or o line to keep this offense at the top

Diggs,  Dawkins, Ford,  Allen (3 picks)  come to mind.....and so many 3rd rounders on Offense...Brown, Knox,  Moss, Singletary, 

[JaCrispy]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well as solid as Oliver has been from day one..........he certainly hasn't been the exception to the rule that a lot of us thought he would be.

 

1st round draft stock pound for pound.......and #7 is a BIG chip.......Oliver might be the worst bang for the buck Beane has gotten.

And Vita Vea went #12...

[smuvtalker]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:03 PM, Simon said:

He could get caught blowing rails off a strippers ass under a table at the actual draft and still not fall to #25

Simon you just made shrimp fettuccine come out of my nose.  Aside from the gut splitting laughter, it wasn't the most pleasant experience.   

[smuvtalker]

20 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You ask how their inability to stop the run caused them to lose to KC? And you're really not sure of the answer?

 

Problems with run defense was a major factor in two or three losses this year.. The First Pats game, the Colts, probably one or two more.

 

We win even one of those games and we play the Chiefs in Buffalo. That's how our inability to stop the run caused us to lose to KC in the divisional round.

 

Not that I'd mind WR, OL or CB. Or pass rusher. Not a bit. But a great space-eater instantly makes Oliver and Edmunds better as well. Star's availability issues are real and had consequences. He wasn't the same guy after Covid. IMO they'll absolutely consider this if Davis is still on the board when we pick.

 

 

Well said.   If you take just two games last year, the two where we were absolutely destroyed by a RB, the Titans and the Colts games, those two games to me were a true indictment of our inability to stop the run, PARTICULARLY when it mattered most.  Going into the Titans game, we had won four in a row, had just whipped the Chiefs in Arrowhead, and had all the momentum in the world.  The Titans relied on Henry exclusively, and the world knew it.  Tannehill wasn't scaring anyone, and we knew going in if they were going to beat us it was going to be on the legs of Derrick Henry.  What does he proceed to do?  20 carries, 143 yards and 3 touchdowns. 7.2 ypc average.  UN-stoppable.  Fast forward 4 weeks, and here come the Colts.  Again, we were facing a team who was extremely one dimensional.  Carson Wentz struck fear into the hearts of zero defenses.  Jonathan Taylor WAS the Colts offense.  This should have been a game where Leslie Frazier lost no sleep whatsoever, because his pre-game speech should have been, "stop #28.  That is all."  What does #28 proceed to do?  32 carries, 185 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 receptions, 19 yards and another touchdown.  5 TOUCHDOWNS.  And to be honest, 20 carries, 143 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 32 carries, 185 yards and 4 touchdowns, while that doesn't look good against your run defense, they're not the worst stat lines ever. It's the fact that they did that against you KNOWING they were the only threat you'd be facing from that offense.   They lined up, said "this is what we're about to do.  Stop us."  And we still couldn't do anything about it.  If that isn't an indicator that your run defense has serious problems, nothing is.  The bottom line is, our run defense is a huge liability right now, and it's masked by the fact that we were ahead by so many in alot of our games last year that teams eventually had to abandon the run.  

 

I'm in agreement with those of you that say Davis will most likely be gone by the time we pick, BUT, if I'm Brandon Beane, and Davis there when we pick at #25, I'm breaking one or both of my legs full out sprinting to the mic to turn in my card.  Yes, we've spent the majority of our high draft picks on the D Line the past few years, but a guy like this falls to #25, you pull the trigger without a second thought.  I could see if we were picking top 10, but 25 is a no brainer for potential like that. 

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

And Vita Vea went #12...

 

Eh........Vea hasn't been as good as many Bills fans think either........when you factor in availability Oliver has actually probably been better over the first 3 years versus Vea's first 3.

 

And of course,  the worst trade decision in Bucs history may have been deciding not to pick Josh Allen at #7 and instead trading back and taking Vea.    

 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Anyone who selects a DT with their first pick in the draft has no understanding of value, by which I mean how a player added to the team can make a difference between wins and losses.

 

 

 

Sorry, man, that doesn't make sense on the face of it.

 

Pretty much every team has picked a DT in the first round. Plenty of those picks worked out extremely well. The most recent world champions picked Vita Vea with their first rounder a few years back and are still thrilled they did so. Oliver, Aaron Donald. Plenty of others.

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Simon]

2 hours ago, smuvtalker said:

Simon you just made shrimp fettuccine come out of my nose.  Aside from the gut splitting laughter, it wasn't the most pleasant experience.   

 

Add a little extra heavy cream next time; it might help grease the skids a bit 

[Motor26]

Davis only played like 40% if defensive snaps in college. No thank you. Need a full time contributor.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, smuvtalker said:

Well said.   If you take just two games last year, the two where we were absolutely destroyed by a RB, the Titans and the Colts games, those two games to me were a true indictment of our inability to stop the run, PARTICULARLY when it mattered most.  Going into the Titans game, we had won four in a row, had just whipped the Chiefs in Arrowhead, and had all the momentum in the world.  The Titans relied on Henry exclusively, and the world knew it.  Tannehill wasn't scaring anyone, and we knew going in if they were going to beat us it was going to be on the legs of Derrick Henry.  What does he proceed to do?  20 carries, 143 yards and 3 touchdowns. 7.2 ypc average.  UN-stoppable.  Fast forward 4 weeks, and here come the Colts.  Again, we were facing a team who was extremely one dimensional.  Carson Wentz struck fear into the hearts of zero defenses.  Jonathan Taylor WAS the Colts offense.  This should have been a game where Leslie Frazier lost no sleep whatsoever, because his pre-game speech should have been, "stop #28.  That is all."  What does #28 proceed to do?  32 carries, 185 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 receptions, 19 yards and another touchdown.  5 TOUCHDOWNS.  And to be honest, 20 carries, 143 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 32 carries, 185 yards and 4 touchdowns, while that doesn't look good against your run defense, they're not the worst stat lines ever. It's the fact that they did that against you KNOWING they were the only threat you'd be facing from that offense.   They lined up, said "this is what we're about to do.  Stop us."  And we still couldn't do anything about it.  If that isn't an indicator that your run defense has serious problems, nothing is.  The bottom line is, our run defense is a huge liability right now, and it's masked by the fact that we were ahead by so many in alot of our games last year that teams eventually had to abandon the run.  

 

I'm in agreement with those of you that say Davis will most likely be gone by the time we pick, BUT, if I'm Brandon Beane, and Davis there when we pick at #25, I'm breaking one or both of my legs full out sprinting to the mic to turn in my card.  Yes, we've spent the majority of our high draft picks on the D Line the past few years, but a guy like this falls to #25, you pull the trigger without a second thought.  I could see if we were picking top 10, but 25 is a no brainer for potential like that. 

 

 

Even though you're agreeing with me, I think you overstated the case a bit.

 

I don't think our run defense is a huge liability now. But they did have a couple of awful games against the run and a couple more bad ones. And ramping up the pressure, they are getting old or they're FAs.

 

Horrible Harry is an FA. I'd guess he's coming back, but it's not a certainty. Star has been a good player through most of his tenure, but he's getting old and he simply wasn't the same player after Covid. Will he be what he was? Can they overlook his availability issues?

 

They've got to be building for the future through the draft. That's the way to use the draft and Beane is well aware of it.

 

If they like this guy and think he's a fit, he'd make a good choice if he's there. Too early to be sure whether or not he's likely to be there. Could be there, could be gone. 

 

BPA at a position of need. Space eater is a position of need. But so are WR, IOL, CB and pass rusher. But IMO if he's there and they think he's a fit, he'll be a real consideration.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/12/2022 at 8:58 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Just pick up 6' 6" 340# Jordan PHILLIPS off the street when the Cardinals release him in the next month if you want a player that size with "off the charts physical gifts" that you can't trust to live up to them.    At least that Jordan has actually played well in the NFL at times and would likely be dirt cheap.

 

Or wait until late in the draft and take a shot at one of the other equally gigantic but unsung DT's that are available in this draft.

 

Save your #1 pick for someone that plays a position with a $30M aav ceiling because there are always good run defending DT's available for reasonable rates in UFA.

 

 

They're looking for a guy who can stop the run and be a space eater.

 

Jordan Phillips is not that guy. Not even that type of guy.

 

There aren't a lot of good space eaters around. Or even alive. Lots of decent 1-techs? Yeah, maybe. But that's not the same thing.

[smuvtalker]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Even though you're agreeing with me, I think you overstated the case a bit.

 

I don't think our run defense is a huge liability now. But they did have a couple of awful games against the run and a couple more bad ones. And ramping up the pressure, they are getting old or they're FAs.

 

Horrible Harry is an FA. I'd guess he's coming back, but it's not a certainty. Star has been a good player through most of his tenure, but he's getting old and he simply wasn't the same player after Covid. Will he be what he was? Can they overlook his availability issues?

 

They've got to be building for the future through the draft. That's the way to use the draft and Beane is well aware of it.

 

If they like this guy and think he's a fit, he'd make a good choice if he's there. Too early to be sure whether or not he's likely to be there. Could be there, could be gone. 

 

BPA at a position of need. Space eater is a position of need. But so are WR, IOL, CB and pass rusher. But IMO if he's there and they think he's a fit, he'll be a real consideration.

 

 

You mentioned that you don't think our run defense is a huge liability "now".  Does that mean you considered it to be one earlier at some point this year and don't any longer?  If so, what changes did we make that makes you feel better about it?  As you mentioned, we stand the very real possibility of losing Hughes and Addison, our two best pass rushers.  Obada, who I thought really turned it on towards the end of the season, is an UFA, and may have opened enough eyes to warrant testing the FA waters and signing with someone else.  I too am praying Phillips re-signs with us, and Star, while I wouldn't mind seeing back, is a question mark to me because I'm not sure if his heart is still in it.  I feel like a player like Davis has the potential to not only be that space-eating, run-stopping force we'd be hoping we get, but could also elevate the play of everyone around him(particularly him freeing up Oliver from double-teams, keeping Edmunds and Milano clean and free to do their jobs).  

 

I know this is all speculation, but I just feel like our run defense is more of a problem than we perceive it to be. Just my honest opinion.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Marquan McCall from Kentucky is like 380 and was a 4 star recruit.

 

 

Was a Shrine Game stand out (my thoughts on that: 

 

It is unusual for a guy that big to have that explosive of a first step. 

[mannc]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see the relevance.  To s*** on picking Williams @25 is 👎🏻.  He’s a helluva player and while he won’t be 💯 by week 1 or maybe this year, he likely will be by year 2-5 and beyond.  He’s electric.  We need electric, even if it means not having his full capabilities until 2023 and beyond.  I’d rather have London, Wilson and maybe olave, but there’s a chance all are gone and he’s the next best guy, who was probably the #1 guy before injury. Worth it imo

I don’t think the Titans regret drafting Jeffrey Simmons in the first round after he tore his ACL two months before the draft.

[ProcessTruster]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:58 PM, st pete gogolak said:

This is an example of the stupidity of having the free agency period before the draft.  I don't know how good Davis is but if we resign Phillips to a mulit-year deal at starter money and if we get minimal savings by cutting Star, are we really going to draft a DT in Round #1?  I doubt it.  Does anyone know the reason why the draft follows free agency?  Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better) or the owners?  I just don't get it.

this, i would imagine." Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better)" 

On 2/11/2022 at 5:58 PM, st pete gogolak said:

This is an example of the stupidity of having the free agency period before the draft.  I don't know how good Davis is but if we resign Phillips to a mulit-year deal at starter money and if we get minimal savings by cutting Star, are we really going to draft a DT in Round #1?  I doubt it.  Does anyone know the reason why the draft follows free agency?  Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better) or the owners?  I just don't get it.

this, i would imagine." Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better)" 

On 2/11/2022 at 5:58 PM, st pete gogolak said:

This is an example of the stupidity of having the free agency period before the draft.  I don't know how good Davis is but if we resign Phillips to a mulit-year deal at starter money and if we get minimal savings by cutting Star, are we really going to draft a DT in Round #1?  I doubt it.  Does anyone know the reason why the draft follows free agency?  Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better) or the owners?  I just don't get it.

this, i would imagine." Is it NFLPA (free agents make out better)" 

[NewEra]

19 hours ago, NewEra said:

He was only brought up to show how fast he recovered….from an injury that was once thought to be career threatening.  He’s back in less than 1/2 a year.  
 

I bet the titans are pissed that they wasted a few months waiting for Jeffery Simmons to recover from his torn acl.  Meanwhile we passed on him and took Ed.  Ed is a monster in his own right, but Simmons > Ed right now.  There is no doubt. 

 

3 hours ago, mannc said:

I don’t think the Titans regret drafting Jeffrey Simmons in the first round after he tore his ACL two months before the draft.

😁 

[f0neguy]

I think Beane goes BPA in the first round.   This last season we could see the defense improve with Star in there.   We need a 1 tech to be available, Star isn’t it.  We’ll be taking a big guy this year.  I trust the front office to find one.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They're looking for a guy who can stop the run and be a space eater.

 

Jordan Phillips is not that guy. Not even that type of guy.

 

There aren't a lot of good space eaters around. Or even alive. Lots of decent 1-techs? Yeah, maybe. But that's not the same thing.

 

Oh Jordan Phillips was that guy at Oklahoma

 

Lance Zuerlein on Phillips............"Read-and-react two-gap nose with ability to eat space and free linebackers".

 

Final NFL.com mock draft in Phillips year:

39. Chicago Bears:Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
That transition to the 3-4 just got a lot easier with the large, but surprisingly athletic, Phillips clogging up the middle.

 

Davis got an extra bump in attention this year playing on the #1 defense in the nation for most of the year but make no mistake........very similar players entering the league.......Phillips declared early but he and 4 year player Davis final year stats were very similar.

 

Being tall like Davis and Phillips makes it difficult to have the leverage to be a true NT/space eater in the NFL.

 

FWIW........Danny Shelton was the NT/space eater rated and drafted ahead of Phillips in that draft.........Shelton is an actual space eater who has bounced around the league and had his moments........he played on a vet min deal with NYG last year and is also a forgotten free agent if all you need is a big run stuffer.

 

They ain't worth much once you drive them off the lot............but hey...........let's use a first round pick on one, right?

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Was a Shrine Game stand out (my thoughts on that: 

 

It is unusual for a guy that big to have that explosive of a first step. 

 

 

 

I asked how this guy played in the other thread too.........but Noah Ellis is a very high pedigree prospect..........he was actually a 4 star recruit while Jordan Davis was only a 3 star.    

 

If Ellis stays in the SEC (I think he was originally committed to Ole Miss or Miss St) maybe he's the top NT in the draft class..........it's a position where it's easy to get lost in the college game.

 

 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

There's way too much text in some of these posts.

 

Makes me think it's all the reasons why we don't get a mountain of a man at DT 

 

 

[Hebert19]

Feel like this needs bumped after today