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Should there be an NFL Lottery?


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The draft does not stop NBA or NHL teams from tanking. They still do it. And tanking is actually effective in those leagues because you only have a few guys on the court / ice at once, so one superstar player can really change your team.

 

In football, only the QB position can change your team like that, and then you still need good coaches and play calling, an oline to protect him, and at least decent weapons to get the ball to. And even if you have all those things, you need a defense good enough to not screw you over constantly (like the Saints for a few years who sucked and missed the playoffs even with prime Drew Brees on their team).

 

The Browns and the Jets have sucked for years and have had so many first round picks and have still not been able to turn around their teams. The Browns did make the playoffs a couple years ago, so I'd say they have elevated themselves to an average to above average team, but it took so many years of bad football. Their issue wasn't talent as much as competent coaching, management, and development of players. Plus the QB position.

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39 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

Well, the advantage with that would be giving the NFL yet another opportunity to create an 'event'. Imagine the weekend before the Super Bowl, instead of all the pro bowl trash they could have a big event where different NFL legends come up and pick team names out of a hat, similar to what FIFA does when they announce the groups for the World Cup.

 

And it would create some interesting trade situations (a team like Buffalo getting the 1st pick in a draft where there's a big name QB expected to go number 1 - they could make a killing trading for a QB hungry team).

 

But on the other hand the minute the Patriots got picked out first we'd all be accusing Kraft of bribing the Goodell with cash and Asian hookers to fix it for him

 

Edit: I missed the part in the OP about non-playoff teams being involved. I say throw everyone in the lottery!

I think they’ve avoided using a lottery because of optics.  Even if it’s run completely fairly there will be cases when it looks like it was fixed.  Still, your point that it would be another event is a good one.  I can see the NFL wanting that revenue - and after the Flores suit (with evidence of tanking) they might not have much of a choice anyway.

 

It will have to be non-playoff teams only though.  Can you imagine if a SB winner got the #1 pick and auctioned it off to a QB needy team?  Think KC with Mahomes winning the SB, then getting the #1 overall pick that draft.  That would have been Joe Burrow.  They could’ve gotten 3 first round picks plus more.  Miami offered that and Cincy didn’t even bother to counter.  No way does the NFL want that.

 

So if it’s just non-playoff teams it would open up some late season decisions by teams on the cusp of a playoff spot.  If you can’t win it all, do you take a small chance in the lottery with a potentially huge payoff or a likely first round playoff exit?  Most wouldn’t but some might.  That’s what the league would have to live with. 
 

As for taking, teams would probably still do it.  That’s the biggest strike against a lottery.  By having a lottery you’re just telling teams that are tanking that they might not get paid off like they expect though.  Putting one in place is probably the better move from an optics standpoint for the NFL though.  Their other option is to hammer the Dolphins by taking away premium draft picks and fining/suspending the owner and others involved.

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1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

With all the talk about intentional tanking in Miami and Cleveland (stemming from the Flores lawsuit), should the NFL change its draft format
 

Jason McCourtey alluded to the NFL doing a lottery similar to the NBA, where basically the non-playoff teams go into the lottery for their draft position. The worst record team is guaranteed no worse than the 5th draft pick. 
 

Would such a system work in the NFL

and be better for competitive balance and anti-tanking? 
 

 

 

Since you stated changing the draft format I'll throw out another thought.  Should the NFL copy the NBA and have the draft prior to free agency?  Realistically would be hard to do schedule wise, but would it be better?

 

For the past year I've often wondered, would the Bills have redone Addison's contract if they had known they were going to draft two DE with their first two picks.

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No. NFL first overall picks are still way more of a crapshoot than in other leagues.

 

Also if they miss, the cap hit is a double penalty for them as it is far higher than someone who is picked in the middle or end of the first round.

 

For every Burrow there is a Mayfield or Akili Smith.

Edited by Big Turk
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11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Flores hasn't shown that yet...

 

Sure he did.  He could have easily lost games against winning teams like the Eagles and Cheaters later in the season and no one would have been the wiser.

 

2 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I agree but as another poster added, it would create another "Event" for the NFL to capitalize on.

 

True.

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7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Since you stated changing the draft format I'll throw out another thought.  Should the NFL copy the NBA and have the draft prior to free agency?  Realistically would be hard to do schedule wise, but would it be better?

 

For the past year I've often wondered, would the Bills have redone Addison's contract if they had known they were going to draft two DE with their first two picks.


great thought. It would also benefit the free agents. Maybe a guy like Addison would prefer to sign with another team once he knows the bills drafted those ends.

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51 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No.

 

Doesn't matter where you pick...matters if you got your picks right. Cleveland took Mayfield and Jets took Darnold over Allen. Picking a few slots lower or higher isn't guaranteed anything.

Disagree.  2 reasons.

 

First, the higher pick has a higher trade value, so there is innate value in the pick

 

Second, while you make a logical argument, this is not at all going to motivate teams to Not tank.  That is the goal here.  Find a way to make them not tank.

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No, lotteries do nothing to prevent tanking. 

 

And lotteries are actually worse at distributing high picks. 

 

Edmonton Oilers only finished last twice, but they picked 1st overall 4 times in 6 years. 

 

New York Rangers have picked 1st and 2nd overall in back to back years while finishing like 10th last. 

 

The Buffalo Sabres have finished last 4 times in the past 8 years and only picked 1st twice. 

 

As a fan, if you suffer through a last place season, you deserve the 1st pick in the draft. 

 

There's plenty of risk involved for ownership and management as well. Look at the Sabres. They botched the rebuild following the tank and now 3 general managers/front offices later and the Pegulas are bleeding 10's of millions of dollars every season for close to a decade and have nothing to show for it on the ice or in their bank account. 

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6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Sure he did.  He could have easily lost games against winning teams like the Eagles and Cheaters later in the season and no one would have been the wiser.

 

 

 

"Flores also showed that while the owner/FO might have wanted to tank"

 

He's shown no such thing as of yet. 

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10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

"Flores also showed that while the owner/FO might have wanted to tank"

 

He's shown no such thing as of yet. 

 

OK, that part.  True he hasn't shown it, but it wouldn't surprise me.  The draft had Burrow and Tua (and Herbert) and it's easier to win with a good QB.

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Nothing the “league/owners” do will stop the tanking/throwing games.  Some of the owners will do what ever they can get away with if they feel it will benefit them on what ever level that might be, if it is in their nature to cheat the system. It is what it is. 


Go Bills!!!

 

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18 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

Disagree.  2 reasons.

 

First, the higher pick has a higher trade value, so there is innate value in the pick

 

Second, while you make a logical argument, this is not at all going to motivate teams to Not tank.  That is the goal here.  Find a way to make them not tank.

Agree to a point about trade value of a pick. I realize there is a trade value spread sheet that fans (and some teams) use, however the value of a high pick is directly related to projected values of a player a team is targeting as well. 

 

One idea I have to discourage teams from tanking is a simple yet will never happen formula. Much like the players selected 1-32 have a basic contract value...splot the revenue sharing on a 1-32 scale as well. Team drafting 1st gets lowest share of the financial pie. 

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4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

OK, that part.  True he hasn't shown it, but it wouldn't surprise me.  The draft had Burrow and Tua (and Herbert) and it's easier to win with a good QB.

 

So drafting Tua was evidence of Ross's "tank" scheme?  lol, come on.

 

Nearly every predraft ranking had Tua at #1 or #2, Herbert at 3.     Tua's record is 13-8, Herbert's is 15-17.

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