Career-worst single-game passer rating

[Nihilarian]

There are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics. Three things happen when you throw a football and two are bad. 

 

IMO Allen was mad about his passing performance and took it out by running it right at the Falcons.

 

Allen Passing, 11 of 26 for 120 yards, 3 INTs

 

Allen Rushing, 15 carries 81 yards a 5.4 YPC avg. 2 rushing TDs.  

 

The Bills won...so, who cares about the stats...as others have pointed out Allen's poor passing performance finally had the OC work the run game more to counter the lousy passing...it worked!

About time too... considering the Bills might need to run the ball more in inclement weather conditions again. Balance works on offense!

 

 

Finally Singletary with a 100 yard rushing game!!! 23 rushes for 110 yards, 2 rushing TDs, a 4.8 YPC avg.

 

Funny thing... nobody whining about how the Bills need a better O line and better RBs after this game. The thing is, RB's tend to play better the more they run the ball...that, over the past sporadic play calling of 10 or so carries a game by a RB. 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

10 hours ago, DrPJax said:

He is a quarter billion $ qb now, and continuing to force throws when we have seen him capable of better , is not a time to keep. Repeating rookie like mistakes.  Just saying , usually you are not going to win many playoff games , let alone a SB , with performances like yesterdays.  Love the guy, glad he is the Bills franchise qb.  Progress is never just a given tho ; at some point you do have to actually perform better.  For example, would you keep going to a medical student for your care or do you eventually expect them to graduate, become an md, get a real license and be responsible for quality results ?   At some point you can’t keep saying  , well I can’t keep missing that diagnosis !   Lol!  At some point excuses don’t cut it as you’re trained,, expected to be accurate, and you are held accountable!   That’s life man!  In that environment it’s a thing; see one, do one, teach one!  So as smart as someone might be , at some point you can’t make student mistakes.  Josh is so, so gifted, it’s time to expect results compatible with talent and experience. Everybody has bad days tho!  Been a less successful reg season for him just looking at ints and W’s. 

 

Of course no QB is going to win many playoff games with their worst performance of the year. It is the same as saying Allen (or any top QB) could win the SB with their best performance of the year. It's obvious and pretty irrelevant. Why in the world do people take one game and give it so much more weight than the total body of work? Why do you assume that is the performance he is likely to repeat in the playoffs?

 

While Allen is still learning and growing as a QB and certainly had a bad day Sunday, I think if you look at Allen's body of work over the last two years compared to the "Top 3" QBs, he has certainly provided "results compatible with talent and experience."

 

 

IMO, people are getting way too worked up over Allen's performance against Atlanta. Personally, I think the odds of Allen repeating a good performance in the playoffs are far greater than repeating a perfomance like his last one.

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by billsfan1959

[Figster]

42 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

There are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics. Three things happen when you throw a football and two are bad. 

 

IMO Allen was mad about his passing performance and took it out by running it right at the Falcons.

 

Allen Passing, 11 of 26 for 120 yards, 3 INTs

 

Allen Rushing, 15 carries 81 yards a 5.4 YPC avg. 2 rushing TDs.  

 

The Bills won...so, who cares about the stats...as others have pointed out Allen's poor passing performance finally had the OC work the run game more to counter the lousy passing...it worked!

About time too... considering the Bills might need to run the ball more in inclement weather conditions again. Balance works on offense!

 

 

Finally Singletary with a 100 yard rushing game!!! 23 rushes for 110 yards, 2 rushing TDs, a 4.8 YPC avg.

 

Funny thing... nobody whining about how the Bills need a better O line and better RBs after this game. The thing is, RB's tend to play better the more they run the ball...that, over the past sporadic play calling of 10 or so carries a game by a RB. 

 

 

 Stats don't lie. Myself personally, how well the game is managed by a QB, something that can best be graded by the final score and outcome, tell the real story IMO.

 

Passer rating is just part of it...   

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I Apologize, it’s easy to take things out of context on a board etc!  Was just commenting about no concern thinking it was a reference to the present.  I agree about Allen.  Great qb, great potential.  He still needs to grow , and frankly is making some mistakes that in his 4 th year I at least hoped as a fan we would not continue to see. He plays, I hope, to win a SB , and to get to that next level given his talent, it’s eventually going to become not acceptable to keep throwing out excuses like “ they get paid too”,  “ I can’t do that “ over and over.  
 

He is a quarter billion $ qb now, and continuing to force throws when we have seen him capable of better , is not a time to keep. Repeating rookie like mistakes.  Just saying , usually you are not going to win many playoff games , let alone a SB , with performances like yesterdays.  Love the guy, glad he is the Bills franchise qb.  Progress is never just a given tho ; at some point you do have to actually perform better.  For example, would you keep going to a medical student for your care or do you eventually expect them to graduate, become an md, get a real license and be responsible for quality results ?   At some point you can’t keep saying  , well I can’t keep missing that diagnosis !   Lol!  At some point excuses don’t cut it as you’re trained,, expected to be accurate, and you are held accountable!   That’s life man!  In that environment it’s a thing; see one, do one, teach one!  So as smart as someone might be , at some point you can’t make student mistakes.  Josh is so, so gifted, it’s time to expect results compatible with talent and experience. Everybody has bad days tho!  Been a less successful reg season for him just looking at ints and W’s. 
 

Hey, it’s just a game, and who cares really( but watching crazy obsessed fans at times makes you worry for them)    It has no effect on real life. Just saying , someone thinks it’s worth much $, so I would think someone is going to have real expectations or you may not actually get all that $ right!? There are not many careers where just hope and words are the final expected product !  Lol. 😀🍸 Been a Bills fan since ‘63, so it’s an enjoyable hobby/ pass-time for me. Josh is a quality person, hope the best for him!  

You're saying some things that I've said - he still has to grow, he has to get over taking some of the chances he takes.  But when I hear you saying it, I realize that to some extent it's wishful thinking.  To some extent, yes, he'll continue to learn and to make better decisions.  But many people have said, and I think they're correct, that Allen has the gunslinger mentality that Favre had.  Allen thinks he can make every play, just like Favre thought he could, and the coaches never were able to coach it out of Favre.   I think, in fact, that his coaches decided they didn't want to train it out of him.

 

I think the reality of Josh Allen is that he can make plays that no one else can, so he goes for them.   Coaches of other QBs tell them not to make those throws, and other QBs learn not to make them because they have a low probability of success.   Favre was, and I think Allen is, different.   I think the probability of success on Allen's crazy throws is pretty high.  That's exactly why his highlight reel is so spectacular.  Those late throws from the sideline into the middle of the field that the commentators say you shouldn't make?   Well, Allen makes them and completes them.  Favre's greatness was, and I think Allen's greatness is, precisely because what are low probability throws for everyone else are relatively high probability for Favre and Allen.

 

So, when we see Allen force the throw to Beasley or Diggs (whoever the target was) and it's tipped and intercepted, we say to ourselves "Allen has to stop taking those risks."  What we don't think about is the completions he gets (that no one else gets) by taking those risks.  

 

I have no idea how one would ever compile the stats, but it would be interesting to look at all of Allen's high-risk throws and look at his passer rating on them.  That would be the real measure.  What is his completion percentage?   How many TDs is getting on high-risk throws?  How many INTs?   How many first downs is he getting?   

 

So, as much as we don't like those ugly turnovers, I would guess that it's part of his game that we really don't want to go away.  Not because we like the turnovers, but because the only way to stop them is take part of what makes Allen great, put it in a bottle and put it on a shelf somewhere.  Take away Allen's ability to make jaw-dropping plays and you have Kirk Cousins.  I don't want to make that trade. 

 

 

[WotAGuy]

The Bills went from never having a QB get a 300-yard game to never having a RB get a 100-yard game. 

[Figster]

2 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

The Bills went from never having a QB get a 300-yard game to never having a RB get a 100-yard game. 

The crazy thing is, I think the Buffalo Bills as a team came to the realization Sunday vs the dirty birds. They can run the hell out of the football when they set their mind to it. Like the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen is a big part of the run game. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

23 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Watch the three ints again…the first if Jarrett doesn’t get his hand on it that’s a touchdown as Beasley was waiting to catch it

 

The second he goes to Beasley again and Beasley has a miscommunication with Josh and cuts his route short only the team knows which player is at fault

The third was just a deflected pass at the line that was basically a fair catch 

 

So Josh had a rough day but there was nothing egregious about any of those throws 

Davis was wide open on a post on that third pick.  It also looked like Beasley quit on the route on the second pick because he thought he got held.  Not to mention a lot of the incomplete passes were throwaways.  He was pushing a lot of the right buttons it just seemed like we were getting unlucky.  I think pretty much every qb will make a few throws a game that either get tipped or should be picks that the defense ends up dropping and the falcons made all those plays this time out 

11 hours ago, DrPJax said:

If you have an offense that at some point can give up a lead to a team like the falcons who had no playmakers( Pitts was oit second half) , can go dry and lose to a team like the jags ( as the pats hang 50 on them with a rookie Qb) , actually has had quite a few tipped balls this year , and has had a few terrible home games already ( colts) , and you see no reason for any concern , you are indeed a glass is more than half full type of guy! Lol!   Not a bad thing.!  
 

Just saying, we have struggled to win three in a row the second half of the season and will need 4 wins to get a SB title and our d still might have to face Henry on the road and Bb at home just to get that far!  I am a little more cautious this year than last year.    An impressive full game against the jets without all the turnovers would go a long way to setting up the teams confidence and focus as we enter that important run !   I really hope we see that and not a presser with Josh still explaining “ what he can’t do “! 😊🍸

Struggled to win?  Every one of our wins has been by two plus scores all season long lol this whole ‘omg the game is close for 2 minutes clearly our season is over’ kind of thinking is spiraling out of control this season.  

[Shaw66]

Just now, Figster said:

The crazy thing is, I think the Buffalo Bills as a team came to the realization Sunday vs the dirty birds. They can run the hell out of the football when they set their mind to it. Like the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen is a big part of the run game. 

 There's a really good thread about how the Bills have started using gap schemes more successfully in recent weeks.   It's here:  Gap Schemes.  As I understand it, the Bills are having success getting advantages at the point of attack by pulling linemen and bringing them across the formation.  If you recall, we've seen more plays where Dawkins and Morse are leading around the right end, or Brown and Morse are leading around the left end.   The play doesn't always follow them; sometimes the defense reacts to the motion of the pulling linemen, and their reaction creates space on the back side.   Bills are running options off that motion, with Allen handing off or keeping it, and if he keeps it, he also run or pass options.   That's why we see the occasional lineman illegally downfield.  

 

The development of the running game is really encouraging, not because the Bills are going to be able to run against everyone like they did against the Falcons, but because it's good enough that defenses have to respect it.  If Singletary and Allen can get 120 yards a game, that will help the passing game a lot.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I Apologize, it’s easy to take things out of context on a board etc!  Was just commenting about no concern thinking it was a reference to the present.  I agree about Allen.  Great qb, great potential.  He still needs to grow , and frankly is making some mistakes that in his 4 th year I at least hoped as a fan we would not continue to see. He plays, I hope, to win a SB , and to get to that next level given his talent, it’s eventually going to become not acceptable to keep throwing out excuses like “ they get paid too”,  “ I can’t do that “ over and over.  
 

He is a quarter billion $ qb now, and continuing to force throws when we have seen him capable of better , is not a time to keep. Repeating rookie like mistakes.  Just saying , usually you are not going to win many playoff games , let alone a SB , with performances like yesterdays.  Love the guy, glad he is the Bills franchise qb.  Progress is never just a given tho ; at some point you do have to actually perform better.  For example, would you keep going to a medical student for your care or do you eventually expect them to graduate, become an md, get a real license and be responsible for quality results ?   At some point you can’t keep saying  , well I can’t keep missing that diagnosis !   Lol!  At some point excuses don’t cut it as you’re trained,, expected to be accurate, and you are held accountable!   That’s life man!  In that environment it’s a thing; see one, do one, teach one!  So as smart as someone might be , at some point you can’t make student mistakes.  Josh is so, so gifted, it’s time to expect results compatible with talent and experience. Everybody has bad days tho!  Been a less successful reg season for him just looking at ints and W’s. 
 

Hey, it’s just a game, and who cares really( but watching crazy obsessed fans at times makes you worry for them)    It has no effect on real life. Just saying , someone thinks it’s worth much $, so I would think someone is going to have real expectations or you may not actually get all that $ right!? There are not many careers where just hope and words are the final expected product !  Lol. 😀🍸 Been a Bills fan since ‘63, so it’s an enjoyable hobby/ pass-time for me. Josh is a quality person, hope the best for him!  

I don’t think people realize how many huge plays we are converting on due to these supposed ‘forced’ throws.  I think 75% of the passes we’ve completed this season are balls that ‘should’ have been thrown away lol we picked up two huge first downs against the pats with josh rolling right and throwing across his body to the middle of the field which you’re never supposed to do…there are hundreds of examples of these types of plays going well/helping us win games especially this season where we could not pass block to save our life most of the year 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Davis was wide open on a post on that third pick.  It also looked like Beasley quit on the route on the second pick because he thought he got held.  Not to mention a lot of the incomplete passes were throwaways.  He was pushing a lot of the right buttons it just seemed like we were getting unlucky.  I think pretty much every qb will make a few throws a game that either get tipped or should be picks that the defense ends up dropping and the falcons made all those plays this time out 

Struggled to win?  Every one of our wins has been by two plus scores all season long lol this whole ‘omg the game is close for 2 minutes clearly our season is over’ kind of thinking is spiraling out of control this season.  

I think you are right on the money.  In every game there are periods when the winner struggles, or almost every game, and in every game there will be plays that we can point to as mistakes that need to be cleaned up.  That stuff infects our perceptions of the game and obscures the bigger picture.   

 

The bigger picture in this game was that the Bills handled the Falcons with a rough patch in the middle.  

 

The bigger picture in the season is captured in the thread where someone points out that if Josh gets the first down or the touchdown at the end of the game against the Titans, the Bills today would be one win away from the bye in the playoffs.   From that perspective, are we really going to complain all that much that the Falcons hung around longer than we'd like?

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 There's a really good thread about how the Bills have started using gap schemes more successfully in recent weeks.   It's here:  Gap Schemes.  As I understand it, the Bills are having success getting advantages at the point of attack by pulling linemen and bringing them across the formation.  If you recall, we've seen more plays where Dawkins and Morse are leading around the right end, or Brown and Morse are leading around the left end.   The play doesn't always follow them; sometimes the defense reacts to the motion of the pulling linemen, and their reaction creates space on the back side.   Bills are running options off that motion, with Allen handing off or keeping it, and if he keeps it, he also run or pass options.   That's why we see the occasional lineman illegally downfield.  

 

The development of the running game is really encouraging, not because the Bills are going to be able to run against everyone like they did against the Falcons, but because it's good enough that defenses have to respect it.  If Singletary and Allen can get 120 yards a game, that will help the passing game a lot.  

Wich If I remember correctly was actually pointed out in the commentary vs the dirty birds on Sunday. The Bills are not built big enough up front to enforce their will on the opposition, but they can be smart and fast enough to out maneuver them.  

 

The 2nd comment in bold is the key to winning a Championship in my humble opinion.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Allen can have bad passing numbers and still dominate a defense.

 

 

[WotAGuy]

38 minutes ago, Figster said:

The crazy thing is, I think the Buffalo Bills as a team came to the realization Sunday vs the dirty birds. They can run the hell out of the football when they set their mind to it. Like the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen is a big part of the run game. 

The true test will be whether they can run the ball against a really good d-line. The game in New England showed signs of being able to do that, but it will need to be more consistent and dependable in the playoffs. 

[Figster]

Just now, WotAGuy said:

The true test will be whether they can run the ball against a really good d-line. The game in New England showed signs of being able to do that, but it will need to be more consistent and dependable in the playoffs. 

Wouldn't it be something, provided there is a round 3. The Buffalo Bills do to the Pats what they did to us in round 1.

[The Frankish Reich]

23 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

IMO, really all this does is highlight what a useless stat passer rating is.

 

And for those who don't know, the formula for PR is:

PR = ((a + b + c + d)/6) x 100

where:

a = (COMP/ATT - .3) x 5

b = (YARDS/ATT - 3) x 0.25

c = (TD/ATT) x 20

d = 2.375 - (INT/ATT x 25?

ATT = Number of passing attempts

COMP = Number of completions

YDS = Passing yards

TD = Touchdown passes

INT = Interceptions

 

What's missing from all of this? Any context whatsoever.

 

The passer rating does not take numerous things into consideration, like strength of opponent, ability of WRs, difficulty of passes, whether the ball is being thrown away, dropped, or just poorly thrown, or anything else beyond just the basic numbers listed above. 

 

In my opinion, far more important than the useless PR stat, is the fact that Allen did not get rattled after any of these interceptions. His game was simply not anywhere near as bad as that PR number would suggest.

 

 

 

Passer rating is a very useful stat to allow for quick and dirty comparisons over the course of an adequate sample size. Our eyes tell us Josh Allen was markedly better in season 2 than in his rookie year, and that he took a quantum leap in season 3. QB rating confirms that.

But on an individual game basis? Well, it's kind of useless. I mean, it's fun when a guy brushes up against that magical 158.3 "perfect" rating, but many times the more effective QB has the lower rating in a single game.

[Thurman#1]

On 1/4/2022 at 2:07 AM, Shaw66 said:

I haven't listened to any of the interviews.  Do we know he was throwing to Beasley?   I think it looked like he was throwing to Beas because he was closest to the ball when it was intercepted, but when I watched the replays, it looked to be like he was targeting Diggs in the back corner of the end zone.  I think that because Beas was cutting to open space toward the center of the field and Diggs was coming across to the corner.  It looks like Allen was throwing up the sideline and as the ball got deflected it went toward the spot where Beasley was.  

 

In either case, except for the fact that Allen didn't see the guys who could make deflections, I didn't have a lot of trouble with any of the INTs.  They just happened, and they all happened within minutes of each other.  

 

I haven't seen Allen say anything about it. 

 

But I'd put it at 90:10 that he's throwing to Beasley, for several reasons.

 

Diggs was a good 15 yards from the corner of the end zone and having just stopped and run backwards to get behind the CB covering him, he hadn't gotten anywhere near speed yet. Diggs fell down about halfway across the "S" in Bills, gets up, takes a step or two inwards, turns around, goes towards the back of the end zone and starts to turn towards the outside. But when Allen throws, Diggs is still about halfway across the "S," still getting started. When the ball got there he was going to still be about 12 yards away from the sideline, significantly further to the inside than Beasley would have been.

 

More, Diggs was much further away. If it had been to him, Allen would have had to throw it well over the guy who tipped it. Beasley, closer and smaller, had to have the ball thrown lower, which is why it got tipped.

 

Most of all, Diggs was really well-covered. The guy was in front of him and Diggs was against the back line and didn't have even half a step on him. If he did throw to Diggs, it was a horrible decision.

 

 

 

23 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

As an average over the course of an entire season, it's useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

Ignored? Not at all. Far from it.

 

Agreed that since a game is a smaller sample size that small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant. But big differences? Totally valid in a one-game sample size.

 

Don't believe me? Find me one game where any NFL QB had passer rating within say 30 points of 17 - Allen's rating for the game - and can be said to have had a good game. Huge differences, like the difference between 17.0 (Josh's rating) and 84.9 (Ryan's rating for this game), are very persuasive and convincing indeed as to a major differfence in quality of play.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

I haven't seen Allen say anything about it. 

 

But I'd put it at 90:10 that he's throwing to Beasley, for several reasons.

 

Diggs was a good 15 yards from the corner of the end zone and having just stopped and run backwards to get behind the CB covering him, he hadn't gotten anywhere near speed yet. Diggs fell down about halfway across the "S" in Bills, gets up, takes a step or two inwards, turns around, goes towards the back of the end zone and starts to turn towards the outside. But when Allen throws, Diggs is still about halfway across the "S," still getting started. When the ball got there he was going to still be about 12 yards away from the sideline, significantly further to the inside than Beasley would have been.

 

More, Diggs was much further away. If it had been to him, Allen would have had to throw it well over the guy who tipped it. Beasley, closer and smaller, had to have the ball thrown lower, which is why it got tipped.

 

Most of all, Diggs was really well-covered. The guy was in front of him and Diggs was against the back line and didn't have even half a step on him. If he did throw to Diggs, it was a horrible decision.

 

 

 

 

 

Ignored? Not at all. Far from it.

 

Agreed that since a game is a smaller sample size that small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant. But big differences? Totally valid in a one-game sample size.

 

Don't believe me? Find me one game where any NFL QB had passer rating within say 30 points of 17 - Allen's rating for the game - and can be said to have had a good game. Huge differences, like the difference between 17.0 (Josh's rating) and 84.9 (Ryan's rating for this game), are very persuasive and convincing indeed as to a major differfence in quality of play.

At some point this week, time permitting (I have a number of high-level business meeting to attend) I want to rewatch the condensed game on GamePass, and put a little context into it. I suspect that if you remove the drops, the egregious hold on Beasley, and the balls thrown away, and look at the throws that he made, and the situational awareness he exhibited in his throws, he had a much better game than he is being credited with, even as just a passer. And INTs notwithstanding, I'll say that Allen was a more effective QB than Matt Ryan. Of course he was-- he ran for two TDs, and converted on clutch 3rd, and 4th down plays. Noticeably, those throws for third, and fourth down conversions (as well as the two point conversion) are not weighted into his PR.

 

As to the bolded, I'm certainly not going to play that game. What, do you expect me to scour other QB's stat lines looking for some anecdotal example of a reasonably decent game with a poor passer rating? No thanks. I will say this, however: In the Bills' first game with the Pats*, Mac & Cheese had an 84.0 passer rating. Josh had a passer rating of 75.0. So, we should assume that Mac & Cheese was the better QB that day? He threw the ball a grand total of three times for 19 yards, and zero TDs. That 84.0 is a pretty silly number without context.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you are right on the money.  In every game there are periods when the winner struggles, or almost every game, and in every game there will be plays that we can point to as mistakes that need to be cleaned up.  That stuff infects our perceptions of the game and obscures the bigger picture.   

 

The bigger picture in this game was that the Bills handled the Falcons with a rough patch in the middle.  

 

The bigger picture in the season is captured in the thread where someone points out that if Josh gets the first down or the touchdown at the end of the game against the Titans, the Bills today would be one win away from the bye in the playoffs.   From that perspective, are we really going to complain all that much that the Falcons hung around longer than we'd like?

We really have been more competitive against top talent than ever before.  sure we flubbed the jags and colts game…I think we got hit injuries/Covid in just the complete wrong places in those games…but against the real elite teams we have either won or been right there or have gotten screwed (bucs game lol) seems like years past maybe our upset threshold is a little lower but the real great teams handled us without much trouble 

4 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Passer rating is a very useful stat to allow for quick and dirty comparisons over the course of an adequate sample size. Our eyes tell us Josh Allen was markedly better in season 2 than in his rookie year, and that he took a quantum leap in season 3. QB rating confirms that.

But on an individual game basis? Well, it's kind of useless. I mean, it's fun when a guy brushes up against that magical 158.3 "perfect" rating, but many times the more effective QB has the lower rating in a single game.

I wish there was a better way to quantify how qbs perform in meaningful situations…a lot of these high level guys were comparing josh to really beat up on bad teams and struggle just as much as josh does.  Josh has been pulled pretty early in quite a few games this year where he could’ve been out there padding stats. The stat sheet really favors qbs with mediocre defenses that frequently find themselves in shootouts and that just hasn’t happened in like any of our wins 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

I haven't seen Allen say anything about it. 

 

But I'd put it at 90:10 that he's throwing to Beasley, for several reasons.

 

Diggs was a good 15 yards from the corner of the end zone and having just stopped and run backwards to get behind the CB covering him, he hadn't gotten anywhere near speed yet. Diggs fell down about halfway across the "S" in Bills, gets up, takes a step or two inwards, turns around, goes towards the back of the end zone and starts to turn towards the outside. But when Allen throws, Diggs is still about halfway across the "S," still getting started. When the ball got there he was going to still be about 12 yards away from the sideline, significantly further to the inside than Beasley would have been.

 

More, Diggs was much further away. If it had been to him, Allen would have had to throw it well over the guy who tipped it. Beasley, closer and smaller, had to have the ball thrown lower, which is why it got tipped.

 

Most of all, Diggs was really well-covered. The guy was in front of him and Diggs was against the back line and didn't have even half a step on him. If he did throw to Diggs, it was a horrible decision.

 

 

 

 

 

Ignored? Not at all. Far from it.

 

Agreed that since a game is a smaller sample size that small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant. But big differences? Totally valid in a one-game sample size.

 

Don't believe me? Find me one game where any NFL QB had passer rating within say 30 points of 17 - Allen's rating for the game - and can be said to have had a good game. Huge differences, like the difference between 17.0 (Josh's rating) and 84.9 (Ryan's rating for this game), are very persuasive and convincing indeed as to a major differfence in quality of play.

Hey Thurm.  Thanks for these replies.  

 

Really appreciate the explanation about Diggs and Beas.   I didn't see good replays, but it looked to me like Allen was throwing up the line, and Beas was breaking toward the middle.  That's why I thought Diggs may have been the target.   Anyway, I appreciate your view on it.  

 

And although we both get that there's not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between passer rating and good play when you're talking about one game, I also appreciate your comment about Josh in this game.   I guess the real point is that Josh's game is the proof that sometimes there's no one-to-one correlation, because that was the best game, by far, anyplace in the universe, that any QB ever had with 17 passer rating.   I'd guess that almost any NFL talent evaluator, if the only film he had was Bills-Falcons, would say "I want that guy to be my QB."

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

 I suspect that if you remove the drops, the egregious hold on Beasley, and the balls thrown away, and look at the throws that he made, and the situational awareness he exhibited in his throws, he had a much better game than he is being credited with, even as just a passer. And INTs notwithstanding, I'll say that Allen was a more effective QB than Matt Ryan. Of course he was-- he ran for two TDs, and converted on clutch 3rd, and 4th down plays. Noticeably, those throws for third, and fourth down conversions (as well as the two point conversion) are not weighted into his PR.

 

As to the bolded, I'm certainly not going to play that game. What, do you expect me to scour other QB's stat lines looking for some anecdotal example of a reasonably decent game with a poor passer rating? No thanks. I will say this, however: In the Bills' first game with the Pats*, Mac & Cheese had an 84.0 passer rating. Josh had a passer rating of 75.0. So, we should assume that Mac & Cheese was the better QB that day? He threw the ball a grand total of three times for 19 yards, and zero TDs. That 84.0 is a pretty silly number without context.

Like I stated, "lies, damned lies and statistics." 

 

Not to mention... that Josh Allen running for the end zone with the ball in his hands certainly would not have been downed by a knee a yard from the EZ... AND, he wouldn't have gotten a 15 yard penalty for taunting which pushed the team back 15 yards.

 

"I'll say that Allen was a more effective QB than Matt Ryan."

 

As would I, as would I.

[TBBills]

It's probably why passer rating is a dead state only used by horrible people like skip Bayless and Nick wrong.

[JohnNord]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:36 AM, Shaw66 said:

So, Josh Allen had a career-worst single-game passer rating.  17.   It's, like, phenomenally bad.  

 

I decided to take a look at the career-worst single-game passer ratings for the super-star quarterbacks.  They're interesting.  

 

The single most interesting thing about the best QBs and their worst days is that, although Allen's day was the second-worst passer rating in the group, Allen is the only guy whose team won the game.  Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, all lost their worst games.  Why is that?   Because Allen's running brought another dimension to the game that the super-stars didn't have.  

 

Here are the worst games for the super-stars:

 

Peyton:   With the Colts, Peyton threw three interceptions against the Dolphins in his rookie season, lost 41-6 and had a passer rating of 35.   With the Broncos, Peyton lost to the Chiefs 29-13, threw four interceptions and had a rating of 0, the lowest of any super-star. 

 

Brees:  With the Chargers, Brees had a passer rating of 27 against the Bears, threw one interception and lost 20-7.   With the Saints, his low was 37.6, losing to Atlanta 23-13.  

 

Brady's low with the Pats came in the 31-0 loss to the Bills.  He threw 4 ints and earned a rating of 22.5.  With Tampa, he lost to the Saints 38.3 and had a passer rating of 40.4, with 3 INTs.  

 

Rodgers made the Bills the only team to hang an all-time low passer rating on two different superstars, when he racked up a 34.3 rating by throwing three INTs in 21-13 loss.  

 

These are just silly little data points, of course, but I think it's more than pure accident.  Brees, Brady, and Rodgers were, like Allen, playing with good teams, but their teams weren't good enough to bail them out of their worst days.   Allen got the win when the super-stars didn't, not because his team bailed him out, but because ALLEN bailed himself out by being an integral part of the running attack that took over the game in the second half.  

 

Allen isn't throwing like the super-stars, but it isn't absurd to say that is throwing is excellent.  He isn't running like Vick or Lamar Jackson, but he's already established himself as a great running quarterback.   Allen's a much better runner than any of the best throwers, and he's a much better thrower than the best runners - Vick, Newton, and Jackson.   

 

 

While his ball placement and accuracy could have been better, I didn’t think it was THAT bad of a game.  Not one of his best by any means but it wasn’t a disaster either and despite the stat line, it didn’t look like 2019 Josh Allen.  
 

The INT’s sucked but 2 out of the 3 came off tipped passes which involves some degree of bad luck.  Even the throw to Beasley appeared to be a big miscommunication.  
 

I think Josh still could have passed the ball but the team had so much success running they stayed with it.  
 

So while the stats are terrible, I don’t think it was worst game.  

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

While his ball placement and accuracy could have been better, I didn’t think it was THAT bad of a game.  Not one of his best by any means but it wasn’t a disaster either and despite the stat line, it didn’t look like 2019 Josh Allen.  
 

The INT’s sucked but 2 out of the 3 came off tipped passes which involves some degree of bad luck.  Even the throw to Beasley appeared to be a big miscommunication.  
 

I think Josh still could have passed the ball but the team had so much success running they stayed with it.  
 

So while the stats are terrible, I don’t think it was worst game.  

Not only was it not one of his worst games, as I just said to Thurman, I think it was a good game for him.  It's one thing for a team to win when they have four turnovers, three by your quarterback.  But when your quarterback makes play after play that help you overcome the hole he created, that's pretty impressive. 

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

Like I stated, "lies, damned lies and statistics." 

 

Not to mention... that Josh Allen running for the end zone with the ball in his hands certainly would not have been downed by a knee a yard from the EZ... AND, he wouldn't have gotten a 15 yard penalty for taunting which pushed the team back 15 yards.

 

"I'll say that Allen was a more effective QB than Matt Ryan."

 

As would I, as would I.

 

Well Allen has taunted a couple of times but mostly it was post TD.

[RyanC883]

On 1/3/2022 at 12:57 PM, AlfaBill said:

Young has said it himself an a few occasions. I always like Steve Young. 

 

JA has more talent and will be better than Young.  JA has a average to bad OL.  Fix that, watch out.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

JA has more talent and will be better than Young.  JA has a average to bad OL.  Fix that, watch out.  

Whoa, fella.  Steve Young was really, really good.  You may be right, and I might even be willing to take your side of that bet, but Josh has a ways to go before he's a winner like Steve Young. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Allen has a lower passer rating this year largely because he's had his most prolific and effective rushing season and rushing stats aren't a Passer Rating stat. 

 

Allen has the 15th best Passer Rating in the NFL right now. That's just plain stupid if you're using that to rank QBs in terms of play this year. I might be a Homer, but there's not a rational intelligent football fan in the world who would say 14 QBs have been better than him this year.

 

ESPN Qbr at least takes running into consideration. Josh has a Qbr of 61.1 this year and is the 6th best QB in that metric. That's more reasonable and the QBs ahead of him I could see arguments for, at least.

 

I can't find the exact Qbr against the Falcons, but I doubt it's the lowest of his career.

[SinceThe70s]

Statistics are for losers. I heard that line decades ago and it stuck with me.

 

I think the sentiment applies for any individual game.  

[Golden]

On 1/3/2022 at 12:51 PM, AlfaBill said:

Not to disagree BUT there were multiple drops, Diggs for a TD, Singletary in the flat, Knox with the no looker, Beasley as well. These all hit the hands of the players. So as JA did struggle so did the receivers. 

Agreed, well done putting all into context.  That first drive he lasered some throws in there, especially one to Gabriel Davis where he narrowly split 2 defenders.  It seemed as though JA did not respect Atlanta’s pass defense enough to exhibit the discipline he showed against the Patriots the week before & he went somewhat back to gun slinger mode.  He is still learning how to be a top tier QB.  However, I would not as you seem to have already shown here, say he had a Nate Peterman day.  That game was something else…

[Since1981]

On the broadcast Sanchez actually said that “if he keeps running his QB rating will be horrible as rush is not counted (he should stop)”

 

Sanchez had a bunch of disgusting stat awareness comments while Josh ran 125 yards. He is horrible on tv

[Golden]

52 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Allen has a lower passer rating this year largely because he's had his most prolific and effective rushing season and rushing stats aren't a Passer Rating stat. 

 

Allen has the 15th best Passer Rating in the NFL right now. That's just plain stupid if you're using that to rank QBs in terms of play this year. I might be a Homer, but there's not a rational intelligent football fan in the world who would say 14 QBs have been better than him this year.

 

ESPN Qbr at least takes running into consideration. Josh has a Qbr of 61.1 this year and is the 6th best QB in that metric. That's more reasonable and the QBs ahead of him I could see arguments for, at least.

 

I can't find the exact Qbr against the Falcons, but I doubt it's the lowest of his career.

Well said, as you know he has also been behind a bit of a nightmare when it comes to our O line.  Between injuries, Covid & poor play especially @ the guard position, & if he was not such an elite running QB, we all would be awfully frustrated with this Offense.

      I have so many memories of Tom Brady dropping back to pass & having all day plus more than a day to go through his reads, as well as read the entire novel of War & Peace…. it would just frustrate the daylights out of me…..give JA that type of protection with his current set of skill position players & we are looking at multiple MVP seasons.  

6 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

On the broadcast Sanchez actually said that “if he keeps running his QB rating will be horrible as rush is not counted (he should stop)”

 

Sanchez had a bunch of disgusting stat awareness comments while Josh ran 125 yards. He is horrible on tv

Well said;

I may be wrong & not to be critical  but Sanchez commentates with a real tone of not having come to terms with his own former career as a QB.  

[Golden]

3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

JA has more talent and will be better than Young.  JA has a average to bad OL.  Fix that, watch out.  

I respect a lot your comment on our O line.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

At some point this week, time permitting (I have a number of high-level business meeting to attend) I want to rewatch the condensed game on GamePass, and put a little context into it. I suspect that if you remove the drops, the egregious hold on Beasley, and the balls thrown away, and look at the throws that he made, and the situational awareness he exhibited in his throws, he had a much better game than he is being credited with, even as just a passer. And INTs notwithstanding, I'll say that Allen was a more effective QB than Matt Ryan. Of course he was-- he ran for two TDs, and converted on clutch 3rd, and 4th down plays. Noticeably, those throws for third, and fourth down conversions (as well as the two point conversion) are not weighted into his PR.

 

As to the bolded, I'm certainly not going to play that game. What, do you expect me to scour other QB's stat lines looking for some anecdotal example of a reasonably decent game with a poor passer rating? No thanks. I will say this, however: In the Bills' first game with the Pats*, Mac & Cheese had an 84.0 passer rating. Josh had a passer rating of 75.0. So, we should assume that Mac & Cheese was the better QB that day? He threw the ball a grand total of three times for 19 yards, and zero TDs. That 84.0 is a pretty silly number without context.

 

 

I certainly understand why you aren't going to play that game. You wouldn't find games with passer ratings that awful that are good passing performances. And no, I didn't expect you to scan stat lines. You'd be looking for a chimera. I expected you to concede the point. When a guy has a passer rating that awful, you won't find good passing games. Which is exactly my point.

 

As for your point about Mac and Josh having ratings of 84.0 and 75.0 ... did you actually read my post? Apparently not. You might want to try that before you answer a post next time. I specifically said, "small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant" in one game samples. Your pointing out a difference of 9 points when I specifically gave an example of 10 points not being significant shows you either didn't read it or totally missed the point. I went on to say that vast differences like the one between Allen's 17 and Ryan's 84.0 are massively significant even in one game samples.

 

When you talk about running, you are again missing the point. Passer rating has zero running component. It looks only at the passing game. That's why it is called passer rating rather than quarterback rating. Agreed that Allen ran far better than Ryan. His passing, though, was much much less effective. Ryan had zero INTs and Allen had three. The Bills played a lot better, but there's a reason that the Bills essentially stopped passing after the 3rd INT. Allen was having a bad passing game.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey Thurm.  Thanks for these replies.  

 

Really appreciate the explanation about Diggs and Beas.   I didn't see good replays, but it looked to me like Allen was throwing up the line, and Beas was breaking toward the middle.  That's why I thought Diggs may have been the target.   Anyway, I appreciate your view on it.  

 

And although we both get that there's not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between passer rating and good play when you're talking about one game, I also appreciate your comment about Josh in this game.   I guess the real point is that Josh's game is the proof that sometimes there's no one-to-one correlation, because that was the best game, by far, anyplace in the universe, that any QB ever had with 17 passer rating.   I'd guess that almost any NFL talent evaluator, if the only film he had was Bills-Falcons, would say "I want that guy to be my QB."

 

 

You're very welcome on the explanation.

 

 

This is the situation as Allen let the ball go. Nobody was closer to the line than Beasley, nor were they going to be. This photo comes at the instant Allen let the ball go. I wanted to include the whole photo, but using Snipping Tool to import the photo, I kept getting messages saying the download was too big until I reduced the size of the window and also left out a lot of the rest of the photo.

 

Beasley's open. Diggs on the left is making little pitty pitty steps trying to change direction and get going fast without slipping, having just slipped once on this play already. He's really well-covered, and the defender is moving right at about the same speed.

 

 

Just spent another seven minutes cutting the damn photo smaller and smaller trying to make the KB limit. Take a look and tell me if you think the guy who blocked it could have come within two feet of it if Allen had been throwing to the back of the end zone. If he really wanted to hit Diggs at the angle he'd thrown at, he'd have to loft it to give him time, and the guy who deflected it couldn't have come close.

 

Allen was throwing into a 3 on 5 situation there, and he only had Beasley open for an instant as 45 ran towards the play with Moss. 'Nuff said on that, I think.

 

As for the rest, passer rating rates the passing performance. It doesn't relate to running performance. And I would argue that if you only had film from the Bills-Falcons game and were only rating passing performance, your talent evaluator would have major questions he would want answered before he would say that he wanted that guy as his QB. Even if he looked at both the running and passing games, he'd probably say, "Well, good game, but is a guy in his fourth year in the league who passes like that going to have a sustainable career, even if he does run that well?"

 

Needless to say, Allen is a terrific QB. I'm not nutty enough to argue otherwise. But I don't think his passing performance in this game was good, and I would further argue that the Bills running 33 plays the rest of the game (though really only 30, since the last three were kneeldowns), and out of those 30 throwing only 5 passes makes it pretty clear that they also were aware that Allen was anything but sharp in the passing game.

 

Their ratio before that third pick was wildly different, 21 passes to 16 rushes.

 

After the third pick, 25 (plus three kneeldowns) runs and 5 passes, even though we were behind by a point when we changed that strategy.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, TBBills said:

It's probably why passer rating is a dead state only used by horrible people like skip Bayless and Nick wrong.

 

 

... and nearly everyone else as well.

[CorkScrewHill]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:58 AM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Watch the three ints again…the first if Jarrett doesn’t get his hand on it that’s a touchdown as Beasley was waiting to catch it

 

The second he goes to Beasley again and Beasley has a miscommunication with Josh and cuts his route short only the team knows which player is at fault

The third was just a deflected pass at the line that was basically a fair catch 

 

So Josh had a rough day but there was nothing egregious about any of those throws 

I rewatched the game and I saw three dropped passes and 1 bad int; 1 communication int; and one unlucky int that can happen sometimes. Jim Kubiak of the news broke it down much better. 
 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-why-bills-qb-josh-allens-stats-are-misleading-in-victory-against-falcons/article_c6731e04-6cf3-11ec-86d7-7334f7b742c1.html

 

the real positive from this game is it appears the team can if needed run the ball over another team ( granted this was the Falcons)

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:58 AM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Watch the three ints again…the first if Jarrett doesn’t get his hand on it that’s a touchdown as Beasley was waiting to catch it

 

The second he goes to Beasley again and Beasley has a miscommunication with Josh and cuts his route short only the team knows which player is at fault

The third was just a deflected pass at the line that was basically a fair catch 

 

So Josh had a rough day but there was nothing egregious about any of those throws 

I'll need a better angle to say for sure but the first one looked like it was gonna be a pick if it was tipped or not. Looked to be 2 defenders that had a better shot at the ball than bease and another closing in. 

[billsfan1959]

19 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

I haven't seen Allen say anything about it. 

 

But I'd put it at 90:10 that he's throwing to Beasley, for several reasons.

 

Diggs was a good 15 yards from the corner of the end zone and having just stopped and run backwards to get behind the CB covering him, he hadn't gotten anywhere near speed yet. Diggs fell down about halfway across the "S" in Bills, gets up, takes a step or two inwards, turns around, goes towards the back of the end zone and starts to turn towards the outside. But when Allen throws, Diggs is still about halfway across the "S," still getting started. When the ball got there he was going to still be about 12 yards away from the sideline, significantly further to the inside than Beasley would have been.

 

More, Diggs was much further away. If it had been to him, Allen would have had to throw it well over the guy who tipped it. Beasley, closer and smaller, had to have the ball thrown lower, which is why it got tipped.

 

Most of all, Diggs was really well-covered. The guy was in front of him and Diggs was against the back line and didn't have even half a step on him. If he did throw to Diggs, it was a horrible decision.

 

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey Thurm.  Thanks for these replies.  

 

Really appreciate the explanation about Diggs and Beas.   I didn't see good replays, but it looked to me like Allen was throwing up the line, and Beas was breaking toward the middle.  That's why I thought Diggs may have been the target.   Anyway, I appreciate your view on it.  

 

 

 

Thurm and Shaw - always appreciate your posts.

 

Allen was not throwing to Beasley, he was throwing to Diggs.

 

Here is the play and replay from the game.

 

 

Here is Allen's explanation:

 

 

As usual, I haven't been able to access the All 22 yet for this game. However, when I can, I will post it. My guess is that when we see the view from the endzone, we will see it was not as bad of a decision as many people think. It was the same type of play we applaud Allen for the 95% of the time that it works. Allen said as much in the video above when he said "You hate those interceptions, but those are the atta boys too where you make a good play."

 

If you look at the trajectory from where Allen is and where the defender tipped it, it looks to me like the ball would have gotten to the back of the EZ to Diggs. Allen had Diggs breaking open and the defender made a great play, fully extending and getting his fingertips on the ball, to deflect it. IMO, if he does not tip that ball, it is a TD and we would be talking about what a great play it was.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by billsfan1959

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:36 AM, Shaw66 said:

So, Josh Allen had a career-worst single-game passer rating.  17.   It's, like, phenomenally bad.  

 

I decided to take a look at the career-worst single-game passer ratings for the super-star quarterbacks.  They're interesting.  

And yet 

 

all those stats and ratings mean Zip, Nada, bupkis!! 
 

Josh came out looking good. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

Thurm and Shaw - always appreciate your posts.

 

Allen was not throwing to Beasley, he was throwing to Diggs.

 

Here is the play and replay from the game.

 

 

Here is Allen's explanation:

 

 

As usual, I haven't been able to access the All 22 yet for this game. However, when I can, I will post it. My guess is that when we see the view from the endzone, we will see it was not as bad of a decision as many people think. It was the same type of play we applaud Allen for the 95% of the time that it works. Allen said as much in the video above when he said "You hate those interceptions, but those are the atta boys too where you make a good play."

 

If you look at the trajectory from where Allen is and where the defender tipped it, it looks to me like the ball would have gotten to the back of the EZ to Diggs. Allen had Diggs breaking open and the defender made a great play, fully extending and getting his fingertips on the ball, to deflect it. IMO, if he does not tip that ball, it is a TD and we would be talking about what a great play it was.

 

 

Fan -  Thanks.  I think it's pretty clear from what you've posted that he was going to Diggs.  You can see that Diggs was heading to the open spot in the end zone.  Beasley was breaking open too, but he was in a more congested area.   I think the real give evidence, however, is the trajectory of the ball.  Where it was tipped, that ball was never coming down to Beasley.  In fact, if Allen were trying to throw to Beasley, he would have put the ball and waist level, and this throw was nowhere near that. 

 

I think you other point, which is something I said elsewhere, is the important point.   Allen connects on those miracle throws a lot.  This would have been just one more highlight-reel throw.  Josh just misjudged the defender, and the defender made a great play.   What makes Josh so great is that he makes that kind of play a lot; the occasional INT is the price you have to pay to let Josh dazzle you the other times.   Whether it's 95%, I don't know, but it's a lot.  I said it in comparison to Brett Favre, whose game was marked by the same trait.   He had a great arm, like Allen, and they share the same arm arrogance.   The arm arrogance is what makes them great.