Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[Tommy Callahan]

Insitute for the study of wars think tank.  you ever see who the leadership is?

 

https://understandingwar.org/who-we-are

 

And funded by defense contractors.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War

 

strange bedfellows. they are war hawks.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Chris farley

[Tiberius]

 

COUNTDOWN TO Z-DAY 

Russia ‘massing 1,800 tanks, 700 aircraft & 500k men for new Ukraine assault in 10 DAYS’ after Zelensky begs UK for jets

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/7347369/russia-zelensky-new-offensive-ukraine/

[aristocrat]

Do we have more yachts to seize?  That plan apparently didn't work. This is like two weeks to slow the spread on steroids. Gonna be full on war here shortly. 

[B-Man]

 

 

Putin's War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm

 

Here we are at Week 50 of Putin’s war in Ukraine. I hate to sound like a broken record, but the tactical situation is basically unchanged in the last month. The only proviso I would add is that the Russians are visibly trying to gain the initiative in Donbas. This squares with reports we’ve had that Putin gave the new theater commander, General Valery Gerasimov, orders to reach the historical borders of Donbas by the end of March.

 

{snip}

 

We’re beginning to see the first outlines of the anticipated Russian offensive. This is how it is being framed by some observers.

 

 

 

I’d only agree to that assessment with a ton of caveats.

 

The Ukrainians are pulling some of their most successful units out of the line and sending them to Germany for maneuver training. Trained tank crews are on the way to Poland and Britain for transition training to let them use the new Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks. Instead of shoveling draftees into the line, they are being sent to Britain and Germany for training. This strategy cedes ground now but will result in a more capable force in a few months.

 

What I don’t think we’re seeing is any indication that the Russian Army can achieve anything other than small tactical gains.

 

My gut feeling is that the Russians don’t have the resources to prepare for an offensive and continue what they are doing — 1) support a spoiling attack in northern Luhansk in the Svatove-Kreminna area, 2) keep up the pressure around Bakhmut, while 3) carrying out shaping attacks in southern Donetsk to set the stage for their offensive.

 

I also don’t see how Russia can translate an army of notionally 350,000 mobiks into combat power rather than a mob that needs to be fed and clothed. They are battering their way to small gains at great cost. They could reach the culmination point of their offensive about the time fresh Ukrainian formations with modern tanks and fighting vehicles appear.

 

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/02/09/putins-war-week-50-the-calm-before-the-storm-n699478

[B-Man]

 

 

NO KIDDING.

 

 

 

[ALF]

SpaceX admits blocking Ukrainian troops from using satellite technology

 
The president of SpaceX revealed the company has taken active steps to prevent Ukrainian forces from using the critical Starlink satellite technology with Ukrainian drones that are a key component of their fight against Russia.

 

“There are things that we can do to limit their ability to do that,” Gwynne Shotwell told reporters on Wednesday, referencing reports on Starlink and drone use. “There are things that we can do, and have done.”

 

Starlink was never meant to be used militarily in the way that it has, Shotwell argued, saying the company didn’t foresee how profoundly – and creatively – Ukrainian forces would rely on the technology.

 

“It was never intended to be weaponized,” Shotwell told an audience at a space conference. “However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement.”

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html

 

Just in time for the Russian offensive ,  Putin will praise Musk for his loyalty to him.

 

Fury in Ukraine as Elon Musk’s SpaceX limits Starlink use for drones

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-aide-takes-aim-at-curbs-on-ukraine-use-of-starlink-to-pilot-drones-elon-musk

Edited February 10, 2023 by ALF

[Tiberius]

13 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

NO KIDDING.

 

 

 

Sounds more like they are kidding 

 

Just a way to deflect blame away from the murderous invader 

1 hour ago, ALF said:

SpaceX admits blocking Ukrainian troops from using satellite technology

 
The president of SpaceX revealed the company has taken active steps to prevent Ukrainian forces from using the critical Starlink satellite technology with Ukrainian drones that are a key component of their fight against Russia.

 

“There are things that we can do to limit their ability to do that,” Gwynne Shotwell told reporters on Wednesday, referencing reports on Starlink and drone use. “There are things that we can do, and have done.”

 

Starlink was never meant to be used militarily in the way that it has, Shotwell argued, saying the company didn’t foresee how profoundly – and creatively – Ukrainian forces would rely on the technology.

 

“It was never intended to be weaponized,” Shotwell told an audience at a space conference. “However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement.”

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html

 

Just in time for the Russian offensive ,  Putin will praise Musk for his loyalty to him.

 

Fury in Ukraine as Elon Musk’s SpaceX limits Starlink use for drones

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-aide-takes-aim-at-curbs-on-ukraine-use-of-starlink-to-pilot-drones-elon-musk

Hopefully they have other means 

[Tenhigh]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

SpaceX admits blocking Ukrainian troops from using satellite technology

 
The president of SpaceX revealed the company has taken active steps to prevent Ukrainian forces from using the critical Starlink satellite technology with Ukrainian drones that are a key component of their fight against Russia.

 

“There are things that we can do to limit their ability to do that,” Gwynne Shotwell told reporters on Wednesday, referencing reports on Starlink and drone use. “There are things that we can do, and have done.”

 

Starlink was never meant to be used militarily in the way that it has, Shotwell argued, saying the company didn’t foresee how profoundly – and creatively – Ukrainian forces would rely on the technology.

 

“It was never intended to be weaponized,” Shotwell told an audience at a space conference. “However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement.”

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html

 

Just in time for the Russian offensive ,  Putin will praise Musk for his loyalty to him.

 

Fury in Ukraine as Elon Musk’s SpaceX limits Starlink use for drones

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-aide-takes-aim-at-curbs-on-ukraine-use-of-starlink-to-pilot-drones-elon-musk

Wasn't Starlink a gift to the Ukrainians to help their people get information and communicate internally with the rest of the world after the war started? That the company doesn't want it to be ised for drone strikes seems reasonable to me.

[ALF]

12 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

Wasn't Starlink a gift to the Ukrainians to help their people get information and communicate internally with the rest of the world after the war started? That the company doesn't want it to be ised for drone strikes seems reasonable to me.

 

Do you and Musk think it is reasonable for Putin to commit war crimes by targeting civilians and power plants?

[Tenhigh]

17 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Do you and Musk think it is reasonable for Putin to commit war crimes by targeting civilians and power plants?

Come on Alf. Be better. Musk gave Ukraine free internet to help prevent a humanitarian crisis, not to kill Russians.

[B-Man]

 

[Tiberius]

 

[B-Man]

UGH: Wagner owner says war in Ukraine could drag on for years. 

 

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The owner of the Russian Wagner Group private military contractor actively involved in the fighting in Ukraine has predicted that the war could drag on for years.

“Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video interview released late Friday that it could take 18 months to two years for Russia to fully secure control of Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. He added that the war could go on for three years if Moscow decides to capture broader territories east of the Dnieper River.”

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-2145d83f2dabc032fefa294acce0ea48

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

UGH: Wagner owner says war in Ukraine could drag on for years. 

 

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The owner of the Russian Wagner Group private military contractor actively involved in the fighting in Ukraine has predicted that the war could drag on for years.

“Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video interview released late Friday that it could take 18 months to two years for Russia to fully secure control of Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. He added that the war could go on for three years if Moscow decides to capture broader territories east of the Dnieper River.”

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-2145d83f2dabc032fefa294acce0ea48

Did he say that with his fingers crossed.

[BillStime]

Nice job Putin

 

 

[sherpa]

This war is starting to have other effects.

The US State Department issued a travel warning yesterday urging US citizens to get out of Russia, and avoid travel there because of unusual harassment by Russian police.

[Tommy Callahan]

22 hours ago, B-Man said:

UGH: Wagner owner says war in Ukraine could drag on for years. 

 

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The owner of the Russian Wagner Group private military contractor actively involved in the fighting in Ukraine has predicted that the war could drag on for years.

“Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video interview released late Friday that it could take 18 months to two years for Russia to fully secure control of Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. He added that the war could go on for three years if Moscow decides to capture broader territories east of the Dnieper River.”

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-2145d83f2dabc032fefa294acce0ea48

Thats music to our war mongers' ears. They would love Ukraine to become another Vietnam.  

 

the longer the better, with no actual goal in site.

 

the MIC loves it.

3 hours ago, sherpa said:

This war is starting to have other effects.

The US State Department issued a travel warning yesterday urging US citizens to get out of Russia, and avoid travel there because of unusual harassment by Russian police.

would have thought that would be just common sense at this point.

 

 

[KDIGGZ]

What a turn of events. The Libs are now the fascist war mongers and the Republicans are the anti war freedom party. Time for everyone to realize it doesn't matter which side you are on, they both end up with them controlling us

[Tiberius]

36 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

What a turn of events. The Libs are now the fascist war mongers and the Republicans are the anti war freedom party. Time for everyone to realize it doesn't matter which side you are on, they both end up with them controlling us

What control? WTH are you talking about?

 

This is a real war for freedom, and only a certain part of republican party is pro-appeasement 

[SoCal Deek]

13 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

What control? WTH are you talking about?

 

This is a real war for freedom, and only a certain part of republican party is pro-appeasement 

Honest question Tibs: Do you believe Russia’s goal was to take over all of Ukraine or to annex the eastern provinces that they seem to believe are more Russian than Ukrainian? 

[Roundybout]

On 2/9/2023 at 4:28 PM, B-Man said:

 

 

NO KIDDING.

 

 

 

 

Not surprised you're quoting a communist publication like Jacobin. 

[ALF]

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Honest question Tibs: Do you believe Russia’s goal was to take over all of Ukraine or to annex the eastern provinces that they seem to believe are more Russian than Ukrainian? 

 

The last thing Russia wants is to take over all of a destroyed Ukraine that will take a fortune to repair. The Ukraine people will always resist any Russian occupation forever. Putin made a fatal mistake.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, ALF said:

 

The last thing Russia wants is to take over all of a destroyed Ukraine that will take a fortune to repair. The Ukraine people will always resist any Russian occupation forever. Putin made a fatal mistake.

Thanks, but that wasn’t the question that I asked. 

[Tiberius]

“Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance, and act with impunity. He was wrong,” the top US general said. “Ukraine remains free, they remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger, and Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost — they’ve lost strategically, operationally, and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.”

 

And they are not done losing! 

 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-14-23/h_b4edf4b7b5c3e900908e0a12354b705d

 

Truly stupid for Putin to continue this war. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

33 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

“Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance, and act with impunity. He was wrong,” the top US general said. “Ukraine remains free, they remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger, and Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost — they’ve lost strategically, operationally, and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.”

 

And they are not done losing! 

 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-14-23/h_b4edf4b7b5c3e900908e0a12354b705d

 

Truly stupid for Putin to continue this war. 

It's been extremely costly for he and Russia.  Is he in too deep to stop?  Somehow he needs a face saving gesture and he might get out.

[The Frankish Reich]

7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Honest question Tibs: Do you believe Russia’s goal was to take over all of Ukraine or to annex the eastern provinces that they seem to believe are more Russian than Ukrainian? 

I’m not Tibs, but … I’m light of what Putin has said and done over the last year, why would you believe anything OTHER than Putin is trying to annex the whole of Ukraine? The “limited eastern provinces” action was there for the taking. It is highly doubtful that Russian tanks rolling into and staying in the Donbas alone would’ve met with this type of resistance. No. It started with bombing of major cities and a campaign of terror accompanied by tanks rolling straight to Kiev. I tend to believe a tyrant when he says what he’s going to do and then proceeds to try to do it. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I’m not Tibs, but … I’m light of what Putin has said and done over the last year, why would you believe anything OTHER than Putin is trying to annex the whole of Ukraine? The “limited eastern provinces” action was there for the taking. It is highly doubtful that Russian tanks rolling into and staying in the Donbas alone would’ve met with this type of resistance. No. It started with bombing of major cities and a campaign of terror accompanied by tanks rolling straight to Kiev. I tend to believe a tyrant when he says what he’s going to do and then proceeds to try to do it. 

Thanks for the response. I’m not sure that I agree, but I appreciate your perspective. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

13 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I’m not Tibs, but … I’m light of what Putin has said and done over the last year, why would you believe anything OTHER than Putin is trying to annex the whole of Ukraine? The “limited eastern provinces” action was there for the taking. It is highly doubtful that Russian tanks rolling into and staying in the Donbas alone would’ve met with this type of resistance. No. It started with bombing of major cities and a campaign of terror accompanied by tanks rolling straight to Kiev. I tend to believe a tyrant when he says what he’s going to do and then proceeds to try to do it. 

he wants Poland as well.  not bloody likely.

[Tiberius]

This is how I assume things are. Quick thread Russia's "offensive" 

 

 

7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Honest question Tibs: Do you believe Russia’s goal was to take over all of Ukraine or to annex the eastern provinces that they seem to believe are more Russian than Ukrainian? 

Was? Maybe. Now they just want to keep Crimea 

[JDHillFan]

Who will be most negatively affected? The Ukrainian people or Tiberius?

[All_Pro_Bills]

10 hours ago, JDHillFan said:

Who will be most negatively affected? The Ukrainian people or Tiberius?

That's a tough question.  In my view this adventure was destined to be a disaster from the beginning.  You just need to look at the DC team's party neutral record of consistent foreign policy failures and blunders to understand that expectation.  So anyone that reflexively buys into the story lines peddled by our government is going to end up disappointed more often than not.  Whether they can reconcile their unquestioned obedience and belief with the reality of that outcome is doubtful.  They'll go down swinging insisting it was the right thing to do regardless of the result.

 

Any foreign leader that jumps into bed with the DC establishment like the Ukrainian leadership has under Zelensky to engage your country in a proxy war of attrition with one of Washington's adversaries should understand from the start that a happy ending in these situations is a rarity.  Over time administrations change, policies change, priorities change, arrangements and alliances change too.  Eventually, they'll sell you out like they do everyone else they have in the past.       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

17 hours ago, Tiberius said:

This is how I assume things are. Quick thread Russia's "offensive" 

 

 

Was? Maybe. Now they just want to keep Crimea 

I’m not sure that I understand your response. You agree that Putin’s objective was only to annex the eastern provinces? 

[Tiberius]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m not sure that I understand your response. You agree that Putin’s objective was only to annex the eastern provinces? 

His initial goal was conquering the whole country, you remember that wild scene at Kiev airport with CNN reporter walking up to a soldier and asking if he had seen the Russians and the reply was, "We are the Russians!" 

 

The paratroopers tried to take airport, establish a forward supply base and the armor was suppose to break through to them. But the Ukrainians counter attacked and wiped out the paratrooper. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

His initial goal was conquering the whole country, you remember that wild scene at Kiev airport with CNN reporter walking up to a soldier and asking if he had seen the Russians and the reply was, "We are the Russians!" 

 

The paratroopers tried to take airport, establish a forward supply base and the armor was suppose to break through to them. But the Ukrainians counter attacked and wiped out the paratrooper. 

Thanks Tibs….it’s not always easy to understand what people are really trying to say on these forums. I’m not sure I agree that that was really the goal but you may be right. 

[Tiberius]

 

[Tiberius]

 

[L Ron Burgundy]

On 2/14/2023 at 4:15 PM, redtail hawk said:

he wants Poland as well.  not bloody likely.

Poland now, unbelievably, has probably the most powerful army in Europe.   Russia would be crazy to try at this point.  Who knows though,  Putin seems like he lost his marbles, he certainly wanted Poland.  Too many yes men around you seems to lead to horrible consequences. 

[Tiberius]

Hmmm…,

 

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

14 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Poland now, unbelievably, has probably the most powerful army in Europe.   Russia would be crazy to try at this point.  Who knows though,  Putin seems like he lost his marbles, he certainly wanted Poland.  Too many yes men around you seems to lead to horrible consequences. 

 

Russia made many, many blunders to get where it is now. But near the top of the list is attacking the only country in Europe that had the sheer size, number of soldiers, and amount of gear to conduct an old fashioned conventional war for more than a few months.  Any other European country, including the first tier European powers, would have been ground into burger or forced to resort to nuclear blackmail months ago.

 

Poland just learned that lesson very, very quickly. And of course there's the lesson they learned in WWII, where 1/3 of their population was murdered in combined Nazi/Soviet occupations... after Western Europe guaranteed their security, then hung them out to dry.  A little bit of self reliance when it comes to defense fits the bill.

 

They also gave pretty much their whole Soviet era tank inventory to Ukraine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-priority-hold-line-global-043239265.html