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Lil Dirty - Benched (update - He’s back and better than ever)


YoloinOhio

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Wouldn't surprise me if part of the coaches 'issues' with McKenzie, are related to his decision making under the football. i.e. When to run and when not to.

 

The fumble against the Colts was a really bad one, because it took the options away from both the offense and defense, and ultimately gave the game to the Colts.

 

While I think he had to try and run that one out - it was from inside our 10 yard line - fumbling it with no outside intervention, is pretty much inexcusable.

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14 minutes ago, Buddo said:

Wouldn't surprise me if part of the coaches 'issues' with McKenzie, are related to his decision making under the football. i.e. When to run and when not to.

 

The fumble against the Colts was a really bad one, because it took the options away from both the offense and defense, and ultimately gave the game to the Colts.

 

While I think he had to try and run that one out - it was from inside our 10 yard line - fumbling it with no outside intervention, is pretty much inexcusable.

 

Pretty sure McDermott agrees with that last.

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16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Pro-football-reference lists fumbles whether or not they are recovered.

Muffs are listed as muffs (but not necessarily fumbles) whether or not they are recovered

 

McKenzie has one fumble and one muff on the season.  If you believe he has more, show your work

 

I don't have a problem with McDermott benching lil' Dirty and giving Stevenson a shot.  I thought that fumble was egregious and we can't have that. 

 

On the other hand, I think McKenzie deserves his propers for his play as a returner this season, and he hasn't shown me "crappy hands".  Again, if that's what you see, I'm willing to be corrected, but Tell - which games, which quarter, etc etc.

 

 

You need to chill now bro before you piss me off.  Save your internet superiority attitude for someone else. I said what I said because I know I’m right from watching all the games with my own eyes and somehow I’m not alone in this opinion.  Gee imagine that.  I don’t have time to research PFF or whatever the fk else you spend your time on trying to disprove me.  Save your “show your work” crap for somebody else.  Man I hate know-it-alls like you.  
 

 

Edited by Apocalypse Nuts
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7 hours ago, Strethor said:

The Colt's focused on Issiah's ball security on a major weakness during returns came up during HK, it's not surprising he is benched - he will be a resource for us later in our playoff run but he needs to get in the right mindset for improvement. 

After playing in the preseason , practice, and 9 prior games , I am pretty sure he is what he is , and always has been, indecisive fielding the ball. Not only has he fumbled once tha really put the game out of reach, he loses field position  by not catching punts well.  Tasker always said you lose 15-20:yards when you let the ball bounce by not fielding punts. I would be done with him as a returner esp since we commit penalties like blocking in the back about 50% of the time.  Risk way out weighs the slight chance of a significant return. Would still consider a role for him offensively if Beasley remains injured. 
 

 Btw, can we please get away from the crap of short kickoffs when Bass can boom the ball out all the time?  It seems to rarely work for us and places the other team beyond their 30 most times , significantly increasing the odds for fgs and td drives based on NFL stats. Another example of Mcd outthinking himself and not getting desired outcomes. How often do you see other NFL teams trying that unless there was a penalty allowing the kick off team to kick from 10-15 yards closer to where they want to short kick to ?  It’s like we never learned from the music city miracle , that squib kicking etc, just changes the risk as you don’t practice them often. Football is sometimes better played simply,,,,KISS ! 

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2 hours ago, DrPJax said:

After playing in the preseason , practice, and 9 prior games , I am pretty sure he is what he is , and always has been, indecisive fielding the ball. Not only has he fumbled once tha really put the game out of reach, he loses field position  by not catching punts well.  Tasker always said you lose 15-20:yards when you let the ball bounce by not fielding punts. I would be done with him as a returner esp since we commit penalties like blocking in the back about 50% of the time.  Risk way out weighs the slight chance of a significant return. Would still consider a role for him offensively if Beasley remains injured. 
 

 Btw, can we please get away from the crap of short kickoffs when Bass can boom the ball out all the time?  It seems to rarely work for us and places the other team beyond their 30 most times , significantly increasing the odds for fgs and td drives based on NFL stats. Another example of Mcd outthinking himself and not getting desired outcomes. How often do you see other NFL teams trying that unless there was a penalty allowing the kick off team to kick from 10-15 yards closer to where they want to short kick to ?  It’s like we never learned from the music city miracle , that squib kicking etc, just changes the risk as you don’t practice them often. Football is sometimes better played simply,,,,KISS ! 

 

My perception is the opposite. I think we generally do stop teams before the 25. On 29 kick offs we have had returned this year we have given up an average of 19.9 yards. 

 

As for Isaiah. He has had a few questionable decisions on whether to field punts or not, and the fumble against Indy can't happen. But the bizarre play against Washington earlier on the year was absolutely not on him and he is 6th in kick off return average and 9th in punt return average too, so it is a mixed picture. I didn't think Stevenson was particularly impressive last week. I get wanting to take the long term view and go with him but McKenzie had done a pretty good job. 

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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh I am glad you quoted him I had missed him. That made me spit out my Monday morning cup of tea with laughter. 

I know, can you imagine the equipment needed by @Gugny if he was to ***** himself? 

 

Magnifying glass, teeny tiny tweezers, a drop of lubricant. Am I missing anything?

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My perception is the opposite. I think we generally do stop teams before the 25. On 29 kick offs we have had returned this year we have given up an average of 19.9 yards. 

 

As for Isaiah. He has had a few questionable decisions on whether to field punts or not, and the fumble against Indy can't happen. But the bizarre play against Washington earlier on the year was absolutely not on him and he is 6th in kick off return average and 9th in punt return average too, so it is a mixed picture. I didn't think Stevenson was particularly impressive last week. I get wanting to take the long term view and go with him but McKenzie had done a pretty good job. 


 

I totally agree - the Bills have been real good at stopping teams short of the 25 with the high, short kickoffs.

 

McKenzie - I have mixed feelings.  He has had some real nice kickoff returns at times, but he has struggled with a consistent approach.  He has also put a few balls on the ground.   Punt returns - I thought he looked more comfortable, but even there he struggles to just get to the ball on each kick.

 

I agree Stevenson does not look really any better - I am not sure what the true benefits of him over McKenzie would be.  He may be here longer, but I don’t see kick returner as a long term role for Stevenson as he seems uncomfortable.  He also can’t fill McKenzie’s gadget role - he seems more of an outside receiver.  
 

Overall - I think it is sending a message and we will see who responds and who takes control of the position as we move forward once we get through the COVID and injuries.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Beerball said:

I know, can you imagine the equipment needed by @Gugny if he was to ***** himself? 

 

Magnifying glass, teeny tiny tweezers, a drop of lubricant. Am I missing anything?

 

Mirrors.

 

Just now, 4merper4mer said:

Mr. Met costume?

 

I'd have to take off those gloves!

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5 hours ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:

You need to chill now bro before you piss me off.  

 

If stating your personal opinion as fact and being challenged to "show your work" is gonna piss you off, you might want to reconsider your life choices to be here.

 

5 hours ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:

Save your internet superiority attitude for someone else.

 

If being asked to "show your work" and back up what you say is gonna be interpreted by you as an "internet superiority attitude", ditto

 

5 hours ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:

I said what I said because I know I’m right from watching all the games with my own eyes and somehow I’m not alone in this opinion. 

 

Sharing an opinion with someone else doesn't mean you're right.  McKenzie has one muff and one fumble this season.

If you want credibility here, and you see something else, Stand and Deliver - prove it.  Which games, which quarters, which plays.

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If stating your personal opinion as fact and being challenged to "show your work" is gonna piss you off, you might want to reconsider your life choices to be here.

 

 

If being asked to "show your work" and back up what you say is gonna be interpreted by you as an "internet superiority attitude", ditto

 

 

Sharing an opinion with someone else doesn't mean you're right.  McKenzie has one muff and one fumble this season.

If you want credibility here, and you see something else, Stand and Deliver - prove it.  Which games, which quarters, which plays.

 

Didn't stevenson have a muff in the game this week?

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3 hours ago, FLFan said:

Hopefully, your stay around here will be short.   

 

The Magic Eight Ball says "unless change occurs, Highly Probable".  Not because of what he said to me, but because the attitude "you need to chill before you piss me off" after being questioned is fundamentally incompatible with the kind of discussion we're trying to foster here.

 

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Didn't stevenson have a muff in the game this week?

 

Yes, he did. 

 

Reportedly, he also had more muffs and looked less comfortable in pre-season, so it remains to be seen if he's less of an adventure than McKenzie was.

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46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Yes, he did. 

 

Reportedly, he also had more muffs and looked less comfortable in pre-season, so it remains to be seen if he's less of an adventure than McKenzie was.

 

This is where my confusion lies as well.

 

On Thursday, he reminded me of watching Bass try to kick the first couple games of his rookie year. PAINFUL. We all know how Bass turned it around, so I'm hopeful that the coaches see something that we don't with Stevenson. He does look fast. 

 

But the timing of the switch is questionable. We are about to face the Pats with an 'always solid' special teams unit with a focus on punching at the ball. It's also a pivotal point in the season, where one play can mean alot (good and bad). 

 

I think this is a "Trust the Process" decision at this point. 

 

 

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I really hope McKenzie is active and returning kicks a week from now.

 

I don't think now is the time for McD to dig in on the Process crap.  We need to field our best players and McKenzie is our best return man.

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1 hour ago, Captain_Quint said:

 

This is where my confusion lies as well.

 

On Thursday, he reminded me of watching Bass try to kick the first couple games of his rookie year. PAINFUL. We all know how Bass turned it around, so I'm hopeful that the coaches see something that we don't with Stevenson. He does look fast. 

 

But the timing of the switch is questionable. We are about to face the Pats with an 'always solid' special teams unit with a focus on punching at the ball. It's also a pivotal point in the season, where one play can mean alot (good and bad). 

 

I think this is a "Trust the Process" decision at this point. 

 

 

It will be interesting to see.   Seems that Stevenson is the way of the future.  The long term plan, for a run of continued success, is to integrate the drafted rookies.  Stevenson would fit that plan perfectly - replacing Mck.  Does seem a little risky with NE looming though.

 

Isaah's sub 25 yard average is not impressive.  You would get to the 25 if you just let it go.  And too often they don't just let it go.  We rarely get KOs that aren't in the end zone, so most of the choice to bring it out is a loser.  And it seems like the 24+ figure doesn't account for those frequent block in the back penalites.  I generally root for us not to bring it out so Josh can have it at the 25 - I'm fine with that.

 

Seems to me that if you have a player that just does returns, they want to bring it out more than I like.  Kind of a hero ball thing, because it is their only way to make a name for themselves.  Reminds me of the Andre debacle in the Indy playoff game.  I hope they have bigger plans for Stevenson than just returns.

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16 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Isaah's sub 25 yard average is not impressive.  

 

It's 4th in the NFL.

 

1. - 29.2

2. - 25.5

T-3. - 24.4

4. - 24.9 (McKenzie)

 

He's literally less than 2 feet/return from being in 2nd place in the NFL.

 

I find that to be impressive.

 

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2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

It's 4th in the NFL.

 

1. - 29.2

2. - 25.5

T-3. - 24.4

4. - 24.9 (McKenzie)

 

He's literally less than 2 feet/return from being in 2nd place in the NFL.

 

I find that to be impressive.

 

My point was that under 25 is not good if you're getting the ball in the end zone.  On average we would be better to just take the ball at the 25.

 

McKenzie may be doing better than other bad decision makers.  But IMO the standard for impressive should be a net of over 25 (after factoring in the block in the back penalties).

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1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

My point was that under 25 is not good if you're getting the ball in the end zone.  On average we would be better to just take the ball at the 25.

 

McKenzie may be doing better than other bad decision makers.  But IMO the standard for impressive should be a net of over 25 (after factoring in the block in the back penalties).

 

Taking a knee or letting it go into the end zone only guarantees that the offense will NOT get better field position than the 25 (barring a kicking team penalty).

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6 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

My point was that under 25 is not good if you're getting the ball in the end zone.  On average we would be better to just take the ball at the 25.

 

That's a big "if"

 

Overall, kickers have a TB% of 58% this year in the NFL.  We have given up 14 FG and 20 TD so 34 kickoffs.  That would imply 19 returns that were TB

 

We have 23 returns.  Someone somewhere probably has stats, but that would suggest that McKenzie has returned something like 8 kicks that could have gone for TBs, and 15 that would likely have gone for less than 25 yds without a return.

 

Be nice if good stats on this were easier to find.

 

6 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

McKenzie may be doing better than other bad decision makers.  But IMO the standard for impressive should be a net of over 25 (after factoring in the block in the back penalties).

 

I think that's a flawed analysis, ESPECIALLY after factoring in the block-in-the-back penalties.  I can't find a source of how many we've actually gotten, but it seems like "too many" to me.

 

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45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that's a flawed analysis, ESPECIALLY after factoring in the block-in-the-back penalties.  I can't find a source of how many we've actually gotten, but it seems like "too many" to me.

 

Flawed analysis?  I said it was my standard.  It's not an analysis, it's an opinion.

 

If they're not getting over 25 yds (net after penalites) they should just take it at the 25.  And if McKenzie is 4th or whatever at under 25, I think it shows a lot of returners are making bad decisions.

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9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Flawed analysis?  I said it was my standard.  It's not an analysis, it's an opinion.

 

If they're not getting over 25 yds (net after penalites) they should just take it at the 25.  And if McKenzie is 4th or whatever at under 25, I think it shows a lot of returners are making bad decisions.

I think there is  a risk/reward thing for returners. They are trusted to make big time decisions that Coaches lose sleep over  : )
 If the returner can see how the blocking is breaking down and finds it favorable , Coaches want them to take it.

Fine line , and everything in motion ?  Of course are moving as fast as can be on returns.

Everyone wants a favorable start to play from on the 1st down. But the reward is sometimes worth the risk of not breaking the 25. Fine lines my friend
 

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11 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I think there is  a risk/reward thing for returners. They are trusted to make big time decisions that Coaches lose sleep over  : )
 If the returner can see how the blocking is breaking down and finds it favorable , Coaches want them to take it.

Fine line , and everything in motion ?  Of course are moving as fast as can be on returns.

Everyone wants a favorable start to play from on the 1st down. But the reward is sometimes worth the risk of not breaking the 25. Fine lines my friend
 

Yeah, the league made it so the odds favor the touch back.  When it was the 20 you should bring it out, but with the 25, I think the odds are against you.  And that's why I would like the kick returner average to be over 25.  

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3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yeah, the league made it so the odds favor the touch back.  When it was the 20 you should bring it out, but with the 25, I think the odds are against you.  And that's why I would like the kick returner average to be over 25.  

I dig what you are saying. NFL trying to quash the return. For safety and all that. But who does not get giddy when a returner breaks or nearly breaks. You see the speed come on and know he sees a path.
 Mathematically Mr Einstein ?  I agree :)

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2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Flawed analysis?  I said it was my standard.  It's not an analysis, it's an opinion.

 

If they're not getting over 25 yds (net after penalites) they should just take it at the 25.  And if McKenzie is 4th or whatever at under 25, I think it shows a lot of returners are making bad decisions.

 

The point is, on half the kickoffs, it's not a touchback.  So taking it at the 25 is not an option. 

That is the flaw in your analysis.  Did you even read this?

 

Quote

Overall, kickers have a TB% of 58% this year in the NFL.  We have given up 14 FG and 20 TD so 34 kickoffs.  That would imply 19 returns that were TB

 

We have 23 returns.  Someone somewhere probably has stats, but that would suggest that McKenzie has returned something like 8 kicks that could have gone for TBs, and 15 that would likely have gone for less than 25 yds without a return.

 

Or did you just read "flawed analysis" and ruffle your feathers?

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Magic Eight Ball says "unless change occurs, Highly Probable".  Not because of what he said to me, but because the attitude "you need to chill before you piss me off" after being questioned is fundamentally incompatible with the kind of discussion we're trying to foster here.

 

 

Yes, he did. 

 

Reportedly, he also had more muffs and looked less comfortable in pre-season, so it remains to be seen if he's less of an adventure than McKenzie was.

Yeah.  Stevenson put himself in some bad situations with his choices as well.  He got absolutely lit up a few times.  Inexperienced mistakes?  Maybe, but honestly I'll take McKenzie as a returner if I had to pick right now.  PR/KR is not the main issue with the team, though - so I'm not really that invested either way.  The inconsistency on both O and D lines and the playcalling on Offense that is not recognizing the issues on the O line is what is driving me crazy watching this team.  The one thing that I think gave this team holes in the run game when the line wasn't very good in years past was due to McKenzie's motion sweeps (technically a pass) and that has been something that they haven't utilized but a handful of times this season.  If they have little confidence in McKenzie's ability to keep the ball secure that makes some sense as to why they aren't using that play as much, but there are other players that can fill that role and run that play.    

 

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9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The point is, on half the kickoffs, it's not a touchback.  So taking it at the 25 is not an option. 

That is the flaw in your analysis.  Did you even read this?

 

 

Or did you just read "flawed analysis" and ruffle your feathers?

 

 

 

Half the kicks are not touchbacks because the returners decide to take it out.  Way more than half the kicks could be TBs if the returners wanted them to be.  Taking it at the 25 is an option on, in my estimate, over 80% of the time.  

 

The Bills are one of the few teams that sometimes try and kick it high and not out of the end zone.  And really the kicker could let it bounce to him in the end zone and could still take the knee and get it to the 25.

 

Generally I think most returners seem to bring it out if it is 1 to 2 yards or less in the end zone.  So if they include those 2 yards in the return yardage, it means when he brings it out, the average start is the 23 or 24, before factoring in any blocking in the back penalties.

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8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Half the kicks are not touchbacks because the returners decide to take it out.  Way more than half the kicks could be TBs if the returners wanted them to be.  Taking it at the 25 is an option on, in my estimate, over 80% of the time.  

 

The Bills are one of the few teams that sometimes try and kick it high and not out of the end zone.  And really the kicker could let it bounce to him in the end zone and could still take the knee and get it to the 25.

 

Generally I think most returners seem to bring it out if it is 1 to 2 yards or less in the end zone.  So if they include those 2 yards in the return yardage, it means when he brings it out, the average start is the 23 or 24, before factoring in any blocking in the back penalties.

 

I really think it's this simple:  Taking the touchback and starting at the 25 is the safe play.  There's no risk of a fumble/turnover and no risk of getting tackled prior to reaching the 25 yard line.  But you're also taking away any chance of getting better field position on a nice return.  Like it or not, McKenzie is not prone to fumbling on KO returns.  That is a verifiable fact. 

 

In 22 returns this season, McKenzie has had 14 that were 20+ yards, two that were 40+ and a long of 75 yards.

 

He is one of five returners with two returns for 40+ yards; no one in the NFL has more than two of those.

 

It's very low risk, very high reward and it makes sense to not just concede and take the touchback all the time.

 

Any statistic you choose to read will confirm this.

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12 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yeah, the league made it so the odds favor the touch back.  When it was the 20 you should bring it out, but with the 25, I think the odds are against you.  And that's why I would like the kick returner average to be over 25.  

 

You would always choose to play it safe, fine. But if McKenzie is getting you basically to the same point WITH the chance to break a big one.... is that not worth the risk?

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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You would always choose to play it safe, fine. But if McKenzie is getting you basically to the same point WITH the chance to break a big one.... is that not worth the risk?

i’d argue no.  Unless your offense is weak, give me the ball on the 25.  It’s not worth it to start inside your 15 yard line ten times (factoring in penalties and poor returns) for the 2 times MCKenzie gets it to the 50.  

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12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You would always choose to play it safe, fine. But if McKenzie is getting you basically to the same point WITH the chance to break a big one.... is that not worth the risk?

No, because while he could break it long with an average of just 25 that means many would be short.  And that is before factoring in fumbles and block in the back penalties.

 

I would prefer to watch Josh and the O with the ball at the 25.  I'm not excited when they bring it out, I'm hoping they can get it over the 20 with no penalty.

 

We supposedly had the best returner last year by many stats, and Roberts really hurt us against the Colts.  And this year McKenzie really hurt us.

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Drive start and whether to go for it on 4th down are the easiest things for analytics to correctly tell you what to do.  Very little noise there. So while we argue on message board, there’s probably a definitive answer on what’s right thing to do. The confusion stems from the contradiction of Bass purposely kicking it short and McKenzie bringing it out.  

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5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

No, because while he could break it long with an average of just 25 that means many would be short.  And that is before factoring in fumbles and block in the back penalties.

 

I would prefer to watch Josh and the O with the ball at the 25.  I'm not excited when they bring it out, I'm hoping they can get it over the 20 with no penalty.

 

We supposedly had the best returner last year by many stats, and Roberts really hurt us against the Colts.  And this year McKenzie really hurt us.

 

It isn't about being excited. It's about if the average is almost the same as just taking a touchback then the risk is small for the potential gain. Yes, the mistakes when they come hurt. But it is just a safety first, no risk, approach. It is akin to saying always punt at midfield on 4th down. 

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Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Drive start and whether to go for it on 4th down are the easiest things for analytics to correctly tell you what to do.  Very little noise there. So while we argue on message board, there’s probably a definitive answer on what’s right thing to do. The confusion stems from the contradiction of Bass purposely kicking it short and McKenzie bringing it out.  

 

I don't think there is a contradiction. They love their coverage units. They were 3rd best in the NFL last year giving up only 17.9 yards per return. They are not quite as good this year (9th at 19.97). It's about personnel. They have good return men so why not use them, and good coverage units so why not sure them? 

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't about being excited. It's about if the average is almost the same as just taking a touchback then the risk is small for the potential gain. Yes, the mistakes when they come hurt. But it is just a safety first, no risk, approach. It is akin to saying always punt at midfield on 4th down. 

It is the opposite of saying always punt from midfield. 

 

The analytics and averages are showing it's a bad decision.  If his average is under 25 and he is usually taking it from 2 yards deep, it's just a bad choice.  And that is before factoring in the fumbles and penalties.

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think there is a contradiction. They love their coverage units. They were 3rd best in the NFL last year giving up only 17.9 yards per return. They are not quite as good this year (9th at 19.97). It's about personnel. They have good return men so why not use them, and good coverage units so why not sure them? 

I suppose your right.  Can’t imagine any team uses as many roster spots on Special Teams-only players as Bills, so waste not to try to take advantage of that.  

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