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Draft Compensation Question: Why is everyone applauding the Fins for their trade down?


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2 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Could it in some part be as simple as Miami wanting to see what they have in Tua this year while still having the draft capital to get a QB next year if Tua doesn't pan out?

The draft next year for qbs has 1 first round qb grade Spencer Rattler and even he has major question marks 

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I thought the initial trade with the 49ers was a good deal, but the move back to 6 was eh.   Of course it's the draft, if they get a hall of fame at 6 while picking up a 3rd and a future 1st

I copied and pasted from one of the trade threads:   I will say how I see these trades.   1.  Miami has 8 picks of which 5 are in the Top 81.  They don't need anymore draft capital

Trades will always be evaluated based on the players taken with the picks. What MIA has done is built a solid cache of capital to turn their team quick. Now they have to execute the second part and us

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Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

The draft next year for qbs has 1 first round qb grade Spencer Rattler and even he has major question marks 

Got it.  Thx.  Guess it hangs as unspent draft capital for .........

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3 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Jests gave the Colts two 2nd rounders in the same draft year and one second rounder the next year to move up from 6 to 3.

The Fins got a 2023 first rounder and a third round comp pick this year.

 

I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year unless we are talking about a top 5 or top 10 pick. There is no way a 2023 first rounder (two years hence) is worth more than a second rounder in  the 2021 draft. So the Fins at most landed a second and a late 3rd for giving up a third overall for a sixth overall.

 

Shaking my head since every analyst is lauding the Fins.

 

Not that I am complaining. I do like it when AFCE opponents overpay or under-receive, though I would have liked it if the Colts did not get so manty cheap assets. In contrast, the NFC benefited from the Fins' largesse.

The Dolphins put themselves in the position to the kill the next couple drafts, after having drafted 6 of top 70 picks this past season. If this were the Bills , everyone would be thrilled.

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2 hours ago, Logic said:


I don't want to answer for the person you're asking this of, but...

In reading through interviews with GMs and personnel men over the years, I have found that this is a pretty standard way of looking at future picks. A 2022 3rd is considered the equivalent of a 2021 4th, for example.

I know this has been posted ad nauseam for YEARS. But, from a fan perspective, it still doesn’t make much sense at all. Maybe to GMs, who have leashes of various lengths (that is, their job security influence their picks). But, fast forward to 2022, the Fins are certainly not going to look at their extra 1st rounder as a 2nd rounder come draft day. 

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3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

I copied and pasted from one of the trade threads:

 

I will say how I see these trades.

 

1.  Miami has 8 picks of which 5 are in the Top 81.  They don't need anymore draft capital this year.

2.  If their GM/HC has 3 non QBs players on their board that they want then the trade down doesn't matter.

3.  Next year they could trade that 1st and 3rd which will be worth a lot more than right now.

4.  If they save them for 2023 it's a 1st and a 3rd no matter what anyone says they are worth now.

     If Tua fails they will want those future picks.

 

Seems to me they are planning long term and that doesn't make me happy.

I hope they pick a few busts!

If Tua fails then both Grier and Flores will be out of a job. 

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3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

but if you have the capital you can get to your QB target area. See Bills executing their plan perfectly to get from 20s to position to Land Josh. 
 

as I mentioned in my posting. They did great getting the capital of Tua flops (I think he will). Now they have to to the other part of the equation and execute 

They accrued zero extra capital today.

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3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

The move back to six doesn’t make any sense to me. They’re going to be spending 2 first round picks on whoever they take at 6. Additionally, you could have sat at 12 and waited to see how the board falls. 
 

Assuming they’re not in the QB game, they are probably looking at any of the two OL, 3 WR’s, Pitts, or Parsons. 
 

Right now we know that QB’s are going too 3. Say Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields.

 

That leaves 2 picks where their primo prize could be gone. So they either want to move up again (unlikely, and why not just call ATL to begin with instead of messing with PHI) or they are alright with several of those guys (at least 3). 
 

The question remains- why trade back up to 6 at this point in the offseason? They could have waited and seen what happened and pick 6 may come up with 2-3 of their guys on the board and they can wait to trade up till 8 or 9. 

I totally agree. Why spend 2 #1's on pick six which seems certain not to be a QB. Picks 6 through 12 just don't have that much separation. Makes little sense to me

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3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

The move back to six doesn’t make any sense to me. They’re going to be spending 2 first round picks on whoever they take at 6. Additionally, you could have sat at 12 and waited to see how the board falls. 
 

Assuming they’re not in the QB game, they are probably looking at any of the two OL, 3 WR’s, Pitts, or Parsons. 
 

Right now we know that QB’s are going too 3. Say Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields.

 

That leaves 2 picks where their primo prize could be gone. So they either want to move up again (unlikely, and why not just call ATL to begin with instead of messing with PHI) or they are alright with several of those guys (at least 3). 
 

The question remains- why trade back up to 6 at this point in the offseason? They could have waited and seen what happened and pick 6 may come up with 2-3 of their guys on the board and they can wait to trade up till 8 or 9. 

It’s possible that 3 other teams were trying to move up and they were pressured to do it now. It also wouldn’t appear that TE is their target since ATL is likely to take him.

19 minutes ago, BubbaT said:

I totally agree. Why spend 2 #1's on pick six which seems certain not to be a QB. Picks 6 through 12 just don't have that much separation. Makes little sense to me

This I agree with.

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8 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

I see tuas ceiling as top 15 being generous while joshs ceiling is 1.  So, we will always be significantly better than them until they move on from tua. 

"I see tuas ceiling as top 15 "

 

you guys were saying that about Josh after his rookie year as well 

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I believe Miami has targeted Kyle Pitts TE, U of F. That's why they moved back up to the 6th draft spot. Many feel that at the next level he will be used more as a wide receiver than TE. He has strikingly similar traits to Megatron. I'm hoping Cinci or Atlanta grab Pitts before Miami picks. If you have a chance, watch some of his highlights.

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1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

"I see tuas ceiling as top 15 "

 

you guys were saying that about Josh after his rookie year as well 

Josh’s ceiling was always considered higher than tua’s. Watching them both as rookies, josh needed to be tamed while it seemed Tua needed to be coaxed to throw. Josh has always had elite traits whereas Tua appeared to be a polished, accurate QB without elite traits.  That’s the difference to me. Josh’s floor was lower but his ceiling way higher. I have no doubt that tua can develop but he’s shown signs of having a ceiling that could limit how far the Dolphins can go with him.

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I mean, Miami is now set up with two 1st Round picks for the next 3 years. Next year they have 6 picks in the first three rounds, two in each round. They've done one hell of a job amassing draft capital, but they still have to hit on those picks. I think they are rolling with Tua this year and they will use all of those picks to get a QB next year if he flops in 2021. 

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22 minutes ago, H2o said:

I mean, Miami is now set up with two 1st Round picks for the next 3 years. Next year they have 6 picks in the first three rounds, two in each round. They've done one hell of a job amassing draft capital, but they still have to hit on those picks. I think they are rolling with Tua this year and they will use all of those picks to get a QB next year if he flops in 2021. 

They only have one first round pick next year (SF’s pick).

Edited by YoloinOhio
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7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They only have one first round pick next year (SF’s pick).

Ahhhh, yes. You are correct. I forgot about the move back up to 6 trade. Still, 3 first round picks over the next 2 years is pretty sick and would be a enough to move up in the draft to get a QB next year if need be when you couple all the rest. 

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10 hours ago, In Summary said:

Could it in some part be as simple as Miami wanting to see what they have in Tua this year while still having the draft capital to get a QB next year if Tua doesn't pan out?

 

 

This^^^^ they are playing it smart by building draft capital in case they need a QB next year.

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