Salary Cap Question

[RochesterLifer]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

$185 million would still be a decrease of $13 million from 2020. It will still be a tough offseason for many teams, the Bills included.

I think our concerns about losing players need to better recognize that all teams are facing the 2021 cap challenge. We may not see as much departure as we fear.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

 

If there was a sweary emoji I'd be flipping it at you right now 🤣

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, First Round Bust said:

10M extra helps when you are 6M in the hole...Have to save 5M for the draft and 1.5M for the practice squad as well.

 

I am in cut mode on the DL - we spent the most of any team last season on DL FAs and did not get the payback

 

Star should return as well, should help the run D and improve Edmunds tackle rate - he and Milano had a lot of missed tackles,

 

so I cut Butler and Jefferson and have Addison take a pay cut as well as I cut Brown  at WR and Lee Smith.  Zimmer played decent as a backup and we also have Phillips so we got some vet depth already.

 

That gives us approx 25M of cap space; enough to sign Feliciano - Ford will play RT so I let Williams play the market and see if numbers work or not. 

 

I'd rather cut Butler and Addison, keep Jefferson as he can play different positions.  Agree on Brown.  Think the higher priority though might be signing a good established edge rusher with the savings

 

I'd also keep Ford at guard, draft another inside O lineman for other guard spot, ideally one that also has some experience at playing center.  Would either sign Williams or someone else for RT

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, RochesterLifer said:

I think our concerns about losing players need to better recognize that all teams are facing the 2021 cap challenge. We may not see as much departure as we fear.

Oh I agree add to the fact we are now considered a playoff franchise having made it 3 of the last 4 years and we now have one of the young superstars of the league at QB and plugging in vets that we lose shouldn’t be the issue it used to be 

[Rubes]

I'd like the record to show this was posted no fewer than 10 hours before Yolo did...🙃

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I'd rather cut Butler and Addison, keep Jefferson as he can play different positions.  Agree on Brown.  Think the higher priority though might be signing a good established edge rusher with the savings

 

I'd also keep Ford at guard, draft another inside O lineman for other guard spot, ideally one that also has some experience at playing center.  Would either sign Williams or someone else for RT

 

 

Between Addison, Butler and Jefferson in terms of potential production going forward..........I'd rather keep Butler..........but not at that cap hit.

 

Pretty sure they were hoping to replicate the Jordan Phillips experience with Butler as another huge 3T but of course Butler ended up playing a ton of 1T.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have suspected this for a while.

Albert Breer writes about it in his column. He says it's conceivable it gets to $195 million depending on tv contract negotiations before the start of the NFL year.

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Albert Breer writes about it in his column. He says it's conceivable it gets to $195 million depending on tv contract negotiations before the start of the NFL year.

Whoops - I misread the piece. Breer says the league wants to get as close as possible to $198.2 million (the current cap) via new broadcast deals, but the deals have to come into effect before the beginning of the league year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Maybe we can have both Feliciano and Williams now.  I still think Morse is a goner and Feliciano plays center.  Ford and rookie/FA at the guard spots.  

 

 

I would still like to know, if the goal is to improve run blocking while maintaining pass blocking, what your basis is for believing that a sound strategy for OL?

 

FWIW, Spotrac estimates Feliciano's market value as 4 yr, $33.4M, $8.37M/yr.  They estimate Williams as 3 yr, $26.5M, $8.86M/yr

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

How about we wait and see what it actually is, and then comment as appropriate at that time?

 

🤔

[1ManRaid]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

How about we wait and see what it actually is, and then comment as appropriate at that time?

 

🤔

 

Madness.  Lock this guy up.

[BBills_88]

Hopefully the restructure John brown, I don't want to see him cut. 

I believe he has another year or 2 left in the tank

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Albert Breer writes about it in his column. He says it's conceivable it gets to $195 million depending on tv contract negotiations before the start of the NFL year.

 

For the Bills it makes a big difference IMO. It means we could potentially take on a reasonable contract for a vet edge rusher. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

10M extra helps when you are 6M in the hole...Have to save 5M for the draft and 1.5M for the practice squad as well.

 

I am in cut mode on the DL - we spent the most of any team last season on DL FAs and did not get the payback

 

Star should return as well, should help the run D and improve Edmunds tackle rate - he and Milano had a lot of missed tackles,

 

so I cut Butler and Jefferson and have Addison take a pay cut as well as I cut Brown  at WR and Lee Smith.  Zimmer played decent as a backup and we also have Phillips so we got some vet depth already.

 

That gives us approx 25M of cap space; enough to sign Feliciano - Ford will play RT so I let Williams play the market and see if numbers work or not. 

 

You do "get it" that if you cut Butler and Jefferson, you have to sign someone to play at least 3TDT?  and that's assuming Star comes back?  That would take $$, then you "groundhog day" the beginning of the season where it was "takes time to gel"

 

10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

How about we wait and see what it actually is, and then comment as appropriate at that time?

 

🤔

 

That's Crazy Talk

[dave mcbride]

33 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

How about we wait and see what it actually is, and then comment as appropriate at that time?

 

🤔

Good point. Let's talk about Tom Brady instead!

[Royale with Cheese]

49 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would still like to know, if the goal is to improve run blocking while maintaining pass blocking, what your basis is for believing that a sound strategy for OL?

 

FWIW, Spotrac estimates Feliciano's market value as 4 yr, $33.4M, $8.37M/yr.  They estimate Williams as 3 yr, $26.5M, $8.86M/yr

 

 

 

 

Because Morse makes a ton and when he was healthy, he still sat.  Ford went down the very next week and Feliciano went back to guard.

I don't know if Morse would have gotten his job back if Ford never got hurt.

[Marvlevydraftdaygenius]

I bet it is going to be around 200 because I don't think the league is key with the Jets, Jaguars, and Bengals who equal rating disasters for the league to get better.  They will take there will take there chances at around 200 and next year hope governors allow a slow number of fans to attend games.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, BBills_88 said:

Hopefully the restructure John brown, I don't want to see him cut. 

I believe he has another year or 2 left in the tank

I want him to stay too but Kenny Stills does the same thing so he’s going to have to take a paycut cause we need a TE to add in free agency 

[Marvlevydraftdaygenius]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Because Morse makes a ton and when he was healthy, he still sat.  Ford went down the very next week and Feliciano went back to guard.

I don't know if Morse would have gotten his job back if Ford never got hurt.

Well you make a good point if they cut Morse and resign Feliciano I can see them maybe moving Feliciano to center and let Ike take the other guard spot or draft a maller guard and hopefully improves the running game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Because Morse makes a ton and when he was healthy, he still sat.  Ford went down the very next week and Feliciano went back to guard.

I don't know if Morse would have gotten his job back if Ford never got hurt.

 

Your timeline is off.  Cody Ford didn't play against NE, nor the previous game (Jets).  He played a few snaps against Sea - that was the week he went down - and the last week he played.

 

Morse was out with concussion against Seattle (the week Ford went hurt) and then sat vs AZ.

 

I don't see how you construct an argument that Ford getting hurt was the reason Morse got his job back. 

 

Feliciano did a very good job at center during a very run-heavy game plan vs. NE.  He got the call next week because Morse was still out for a very pass-heavy game plan (where Allen was sacked 7 times) then he got another chance with a "healthy" Morse for AZ (the controversy) and a more balanced game plan.

 

Did you watch those games with an eye to sorting out the OL play?

 

My take is that a bunch of things probably went into the decision to sit Morse:

1) He was cleared partway into the week before AZ and they may have felt he would benefit from extra time to work his way up to game speed; Morse alluded to having "technical problems" in the Jets game, which would support the notion that he needed more time to work on something

2) Continuity at OL until the bye - ride the "hot hand"

3) It may have been an audition for Feliciano at Center.  If so, he came in second

 

Morse current salary + bonuses is $7.625M.  We save only $4.8M of that due to accelerated amortized bonus.

Spotrac estimates Feliciano at $8.37M per year to re-sign.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Your timeline is off.  Cody Ford didn't play against NE, nor the previous game (Jets).  He played a few snaps against Sea - that was the week he went down - and the last week he played.

 

Morse was out with concussion against Seattle (the week Ford went hurt) and then sat vs AZ.

 

I don't see how you construct an argument that Ford getting hurt was the reason Morse got his job back. 

 

Feliciano did a very good job at center during a very run-heavy game plan vs. NE.  He got the call next week because Morse was still out for a very pass-heavy game plan (where Allen was sacked 7 times) then he got another chance with a "healthy" Morse for AZ (the controversy) and a more balanced game plan.

 

Did you watch those games with an eye to sorting out the OL play?

 

My take is that a bunch of things probably went into the decision to sit Morse:

1) He was cleared partway into the week before AZ and they may have felt he would benefit from extra time to work his way up to game speed; Morse alluded to having "technical problems" in the Jets game, which would support the notion that he needed more time to work on something

2) Continuity at OL until the bye - ride the "hot hand"

3) It may have been an audition for Feliciano at Center.  If so, he came in second

 

Morse current salary + bonuses is $7.625M.  We save only $4.8M of that due to accelerated amortized bonus.

Spotrac estimates Feliciano at $8.37M per year to re-sign.

 

My timeline might be off but my I still think there was a possibility that if Ford never went down at all, Morse would have been back at Center.

 

McDermott specifically mentioned it was a football decision.  Morse basically acknowledged it by saying it sent him a message and woke him up.

 

If Dion Dawkins goes down for a few weeks and his back up comes in and does well....will Dawkins sit to keep the "hot hand" when he's healthy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

My timeline might be off but my I still think there was a possibility that if Ford never went down at all, Morse would have been back at Center.

 

Now you're confusing me.  I thought you were arguing that if Ford never went down, Morse would NOT have been back at Center?

But the point is, Ford was down almost the whole time Feliciano played center, and frankly not playing particularly well when he wasn't down (hampered by injury perhaps).

 

Quote

McDermott specifically mentioned it was a football decision.  Morse basically acknowledged it by saying it sent him a message and woke him up.

 

I don't think I heard exactly that, but I think Morse was having some problems before the concussion and probably did "get the flick" that he needed to step it up.

 

My take is, Feliciano had a chance to nail down the job and couldn't wield the hammer to clinch the nails.

 

Quote

If Dion Dawkins goes down for a few weeks and his back up comes in and does well....will Dawkins sit to keep the "hot hand" when he's healthy.

 

If his backup clearly outplays him, yes.  If it's a push, or his backup has one hot game then over a couple of games against different defenses shows deficiencies, probably not.

 

You didn't address the point that Feliciano is projected to get as much salary per year as Morse or more, PLUS Morse substantial dead cap.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Now you're confusing me.  I thought you were arguing that if Ford never went down, Morse would NOT have been back at Center?

But the point is, Ford was down almost the whole time Feliciano played center, and frankly not playing particularly well when he wasn't down (hampered by injury perhaps).

 

 

I don't think I heard exactly that, but I think Morse was having some problems before the concussion and probably did "get the flick" that he needed to step it up.

 

My take is, Feliciano had a chance to nail down the job and couldn't wield the hammer to clinch the nails.

 

 

If his backup clearly outplays him, yes.  If it's a push, or his backup has one hot game then over a couple of games against different defenses shows deficiencies, probably not.

 

You didn't address the point that Feliciano is projected to get as much salary per year as Morse or more, PLUS Morse substantial dead cap.

 

To clarify, I don't know if Morse gets his job back if Ford never goes down.  Feliciano at center, Ford and Boettger at guard.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/11/16/trying-make-sense-buffalo-bills-mitch-morse-noit-playing-sean-mcdermott/

 

Morse was benched, he was healthy and didn't play.  He was benched.

 

If they feel Feliciano can do a better job at center, then yes, I think they would cut Morse.  There is dead cap but they would still save money.

 

So you're telling me that if Dawkins, Diggs, Beasley and even Allen....if the back up comes in and plays well then you keep them in?  

Allen is out for whatever reason, Barkley is coming off of 2 very good games....you're playing Barkley when Allen comes back healthy?

[Buddo]

If the cap does go to $185 million, then you have 12 teams who currently would be over it. 2 of those teams would be over by less than a million, which is obviously very manageable.

 

At $175 million, you would have 15 teams who would be over the cap, or, in effect, half the league.

 

I think the extra $10 million, makes enough of a difference to where the NFL would prefer to see teams sit within the cap, for it to be highly likely that it gets there.

 

The numbers were got from Spotrac, and interestingly, they are basing their cap at $185 million now, whereas the other week it was at the floor of $175 million.

 

I've read somewhere, that most of the TV deals are due for renewal in the next couple of years, starting with ESPN after the 2021 season, then the other networks after the 2022 season.

 

I don't think that the NFL (hence Owners) will necessarily press too hard to get those deals done any sooner. Mainly because it could impact how much they will eventually get - and that might be numbered in the area of $100s of millions. .

 

.Having said that, much depends on the TV companies themselves, if they want to lock up their deals sooner rather than later, which might not be that far fetched, as having NFL games is very much part of their marketing for subscribers.

 

With the numbers being talked about (there's a Forbes article from the end of last year), the NFL looks set to raise their TV revenues by a huge amount by 2023, to the extent that they might actually double. Both Fox and CBS are paying a billion each for Sunday afternoon football per annum. It's reckoned the deal that gets done, will bump that to two billion per.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2020/11/11/expect-tv-rights-fees-for-sports-to-soar/?sh=352eed7f48c2

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

20 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

To clarify, I don't know if Morse gets his job back if Ford never goes down.  Feliciano at center, Ford and Boettger at guard.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/11/16/trying-make-sense-buffalo-bills-mitch-morse-noit-playing-sean-mcdermott/

 

Morse was benched, he was healthy and didn't play.  He was benched.

 

If they feel Feliciano can do a better job at center, then yes, I think they would cut Morse.  There is dead cap but they would still save money.

 

So you're telling me that if Dawkins, Diggs, Beasley and even Allen....if the back up comes in and plays well then you keep them in?  

Allen is out for whatever reason, Barkley is coming off of 2 very good games....you're playing Barkley when Allen comes back healthy?

 

This is a ridiculous argument, but let’s play. 
 

If Josh Allen missed a few games like Morse and then was not cleared until the middle of the week and Barkley was 2-0 and the team put together a game plan he could work with - then yes maybe Josh waits.

 

We saw it with Milano this year, Moss this year, Brown, Singletary last year, etc.  The Bills very much rely on the training staff to decide and even if guys are “cleared” - the Bills have given guys extra weeks throughout the last few years.

 

Center is one of the most important positions and although we know Morse was cleared - we do not know anything beyond that and maybe the Bills thought they could use the OLine like they did against NE and then regroup over the bye.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

This is a ridiculous argument, but let’s play. 
 

If Josh Allen missed a few games like Morse and then was not cleared until the middle of the week and Barkley was 2-0 and the team put together a game plan he could work with - then yes maybe Josh waits.

 

We saw it with Milano this year, Moss this year, Brown, Singletary last year, etc.  The Bills very much rely on the training staff to decide and even if guys are “cleared” - the Bills have given guys extra weeks throughout the last few years.

 

Center is one of the most important positions and although we know Morse was cleared - we do not know anything beyond that and maybe the Bills thought they could use the OLine like they did against NE and then regroup over the bye.

 

I just can't buy this.  If McDermott had said they wanted to give him another week, he would have said that.  He simply said it was a coach's decision to not play him.'

Correct me if I'm wrong but he was active right?  If he really wanted to wait another week, I don't think he would have dressed.  Mitch Morse himself said the coach's definitely sent him a message with the sitting.

 

Everyone of those players were coming off of injuries and slowly getting back in.  Milano's chest wasn't 100% yet, neither was Singletary's hamstring, Brown's calf....

Morse was ready to go 100%.  He cleared the protocol.

 

I'm not anti-Morse.  I just think he could be one of the causalities.  I'm not pulling for it, I believe his not playing against AZ was performance based.

[CEN-CAL17]

On 1/27/2021 at 2:31 PM, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

The Bills can free up $25,250,000 easily and  without any real ramifications to the team but releasing 4 players and it would only be a  $2,600,000 cap hit,
 

Player            Cap Number    Dead Money    Cap Savings
------            ----------    ----------    -----------
John Brown        $9,750,000    $1,600,000    $8,150,000
Vernon Butler        $7,850,000    $1,000,000    $6,850,000
Quint Jefferson        $8,000,000    $0000000    $8,000,000
Lee Smith        $2,250,000    $0000000    $2,250,000
 

John Brown- replacement Elijah Moore/draft. Stud, speed, hands, route running top notch. Fills McKenzie role as well.

 

Vernon Butler- Star comes back. Draft DT Dayvion Nixon I like. Fills Jefferson loss as well.

 

Morse- Can Feliciano move to center? Ford to RG. Keep Ike. And Williams with money saved letting Morse and Jefferson go.

Draft OL as well.

 

FA- Edge/DE

 

 

WRs- Diggs, Beasley, Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore.

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I just can't buy this.  If McDermott had said they wanted to give him another week, he would have said that.  He simply said it was a coach's decision to not play him.'

Correct me if I'm wrong but he was active right?  If he really wanted to wait another week, I don't think he would have dressed.  Mitch Morse himself said the coach's definitely sent him a message with the sitting.

 

Everyone of those players were coming off of injuries and slowly getting back in.  Milano's chest wasn't 100% yet, neither was Singletary's hamstring, Brown's calf....

Morse was ready to go 100%.  He cleared the protocol.

 

I'm not anti-Morse.  I just think he could be one of the causalities.  I'm not pulling for it, I believe his not playing against AZ was performance based.

 

I agree there are some differences, but McD did say it was a coaching decision and he wanted to “ride” the hot hand.

 

So I took it to be - especially with the Arizona injuries to the D-line - that the team was putting together a more run centric offense and felt similar to the NE game - they wanted to see what this team could do.

 

It became apparent that the ends and LBs were quicker and holding up and therefore that line was not a final stop.

 

They finished the game and immediately the OL was returned to Morse at Center and Mongo at Guard.

 

I think they realized Mongo is good, but at Center the rest of the line inside was weak and the best line going forward was Morse at Center, Mongo and Ike at Guard.  That stabilized things, but still left issues.

 

I think they want improvement on the O-Line - I am just not sure they can move on from Morse as the savings is minimum and it would cost more for Mongo and then we still have openings that need to be filled.

 

If this was next year where you get bigger savings from Morse - then maybe they switch, but I think we are going to be stuck with an OL very similar for 2021 to our 2020 line.

[Rubes]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 1/27/2021 at 12:31 PM, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

The Bills can free up $25,250,000 easily and  without any real ramifications to the team but releasing 4 players and it would only be a  $2,600,000 cap hit,
 

Player            Cap Number    Dead Money    Cap Savings
------            ----------    ----------    -----------
John Brown        $9,750,000    $1,600,000    $8,150,000
Vernon Butler        $7,850,000    $1,000,000    $6,850,000
Quint Jefferson        $8,000,000    $0000000    $8,000,000
Lee Smith        $2,250,000    $0000000    $2,250,000
 

We'll be saying goodbye to more than these 4.

On 1/27/2021 at 12:31 PM, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

The Bills can free up $25,250,000 easily and  without any real ramifications to the team but releasing 4 players and it would only be a  $2,600,000 cap hit,
 

Player            Cap Number    Dead Money    Cap Savings
------            ----------    ----------    -----------
John Brown        $9,750,000    $1,600,000    $8,150,000
Vernon Butler        $7,850,000    $1,000,000    $6,850,000
Quint Jefferson        $8,000,000    $0000000    $8,000,000
Lee Smith        $2,250,000    $0000000    $2,250,000
 

We'll be saying goodbye to more than these 4.

On 1/27/2021 at 12:31 PM, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

The Bills can free up $25,250,000 easily and  without any real ramifications to the team but releasing 4 players and it would only be a  $2,600,000 cap hit,
 

Player            Cap Number    Dead Money    Cap Savings
------            ----------    ----------    -----------
John Brown        $9,750,000    $1,600,000    $8,150,000
Vernon Butler        $7,850,000    $1,000,000    $6,850,000
Quint Jefferson        $8,000,000    $0000000    $8,000,000
Lee Smith        $2,250,000    $0000000    $2,250,000
 

We'll be saying goodbye to more than these 4.

On 1/27/2021 at 12:31 PM, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

The Bills can free up $25,250,000 easily and  without any real ramifications to the team but releasing 4 players and it would only be a  $2,600,000 cap hit,
 

Player            Cap Number    Dead Money    Cap Savings
------            ----------    ----------    -----------
John Brown        $9,750,000    $1,600,000    $8,150,000
Vernon Butler        $7,850,000    $1,000,000    $6,850,000
Quint Jefferson        $8,000,000    $0000000    $8,000,000
Lee Smith        $2,250,000    $0000000    $2,250,000
 

We'll be saying goodbye to more than these 4.

[fergie's ire]

On 2/4/2021 at 6:50 PM, Buddo said:

 

 

I've read somewhere, that most of the TV deals are due for renewal in the next couple of years, starting with ESPN after the 2021 season, then the other networks after the 2022 season.

 

I don't think that the NFL (hence Owners) will necessarily press too hard to get those deals done any sooner. Mainly because it could impact how much they will eventually get - and that might be numbered in the area of $100s of millions. .

 

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2020/11/11/expect-tv-rights-fees-for-sports-to-soar/?sh=352eed7f48c2

 

 

The odd thing is that we kept hearing that they wanted to get the CBA done so they could complete TV deals.  Maybe they are worried that because of Covid, those deals would not be as lucrative...but TV execs almost always seem to be optimistic and raise how much they are willing to pay by quite a bit.  Seems it would be a way to make up for lost stadium revenue.