Sando's Annual QB Tiers (voted on by 50 NFL coaches and "evaluators")

[DCOrange]

https://theathletic.com/1945894/2020/07/27/2020-quarterback-tiers-50-coaches-and-evaluators-rank-the-nfl-starters/

 

I didn't realize Sando had moved over to The Athletic, but he published his annual QB Tiers survey today where QBs are placed on 5 different tiers based on the votes of coaches and "evaluators".

 

Tier 1: A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

 

1. Mahomes/Wilson

3. Rodgers

4. Brees

5. Watson

 

Tier 2: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

 

6. Brady

7. Lamar

8. Big Ben

9. Stafford

10. Matt Ryan

11. Wentz

12. Dak

13. Rivers

 

Tier 3: A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

 

14. Kyler Murray

15. Cousins

16. Goff

17. Garoppolo

18. Tannehill

19. Cam Newton

20. Carr

21. Baker

22. Josh Allen

23. Bridgewater

24. Darnold

25. Daniel Jones

26. Nick Foles

 

Tier 4: A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

 

27. Mariota

28. Fitzpatrick

29. Tyrod

30. Drew Lock/Gardner Minshew

32. Trubisky

33. Haskins

34. Stidham

35. Kyle Allen

 

On Josh Allen:

Vote Breakdown:

• Tier 2: 4
• Tier 3: 40
• Tier 4: 6

Quote

 

Allen enjoyed the third-largest improvement from last year in average tier vote (3.69 to 3.04) as voters bumped him into the third tier, where he seems to fit as a quarterback who has won while supported by a top defense, without yet distinguishing himself as a player who can sometimes carry his team on the strength of his passing, especially in pure-pass situations.

“I think he is a three trending towards a two,” a former head coach said. “I saw him make some throws this year in the pocket that were really good throws. He will stand in there and get hit and make an accurate throw down the field and he has a good arm. I thought he did a better job understanding how to throw the ball later in the season, not always trying to throw it through the back of the wall.”

Allen’s postseason meltdown at Houston is a hard visual to shake. Voters who were skeptical of Allen coming out of college or through the start of his career could easily point to that game for validation. Yet, Allen became one of only four players to move into a higher tier from last year, joining Jackson, Watson and Prescott in that regard. But there are some who think he’s a better football player than quarterback, which isn’t always insurmountable but has been in extreme cases such as Tim Tebow and Blake Bortles.

“He is not a real good decision maker, he is not especially accurate,” a defensive coach who faced the Bills said. “He is a tough competitor, but just a dude —a lower three if you were asking me.”

An offensive coach said Allen would reach the second tier if he could compensate for a lack of instincts and accuracy by “doing some other things like Lamar (Jackson).”

Allen is already doing some of those things. He ran the ball on 18 percent of his plays last season, the second-highest rate behind Jackson (29 percent) among 33 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts. His 544 yards rushing ranked third behind Jackson and Murray. His nine rushing touchdowns led all quarterbacks, but weren’t enough to elevate him higher than 24th in Total QBR.

“A lot of these guys rely on their athleticism, but you don’t see Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson take a lot of straight-up clean shots,” an offensive play-caller said. “With Josh and Lamar, they will lower their right shoulders. There are a couple shots where you go, ‘How the hell does he not get stretchered off?’ Josh is not as dynamic as those guys above him and I think his passing leaves a little to be desired, but he is good, he makes enough plays, they play defense behind him.”

Allen tied for the NFL lead in fourth-quarter comeback victories last season.

“This will be a big year for him just to see where he goes,” a head coach said. “I thought he was accurate enough. People hit him with his accuracy. I thought, teach him how to get into rhythm and go. He had good vision. He was throwing to the right guys.”

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by DCOrange

[Shaw66]

Sounds like a pretty fair assessment. 

 

Nice that he's one of only a few who climbed the ladder last season.  I agree that he looks like he's moving to tier two.  His play has to demonstrate it. 

[SCBills]

Makes sense to me.. I think a lot of us are expecting him to make the jump to Tier 2 this year.

[eball]

15 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

On Josh Allen:

Vote Breakdown:

• Tier 2: 4
• Tier 3: 40
• Tier 4: 6

 

The six guys who voted Allen Tier 4 are morons.

[H2o]

He'll be tier 2 by next season. 

[DCOrange]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

The six guys who voted Allen Tier 4 are morons.

Yeah, I don't really get that either. Tier 3 is definitely right at the moment IMO.

[Don Otreply]

Looks to be a fair assessment, like all of us I hope tier 2 is achieved early this season. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

23 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Tier 2: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

 

7. Lamar

what a crock of ? 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

i'd argue he's in the 14-18 range in tier 3. but it seems pretty fair regardless.

[GunnerBill]

Yea pretty fair. 

[MJS]

Surprised he got some tier 2 votes. He's clearly tier 3 right now. But he's young and improving.

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yeah, I don't really get that either. Tier 3 is definitely right at the moment IMO.

Mariota had a really strong second season.  Tribusky made a “pro bowl” in his second year.  Allen had Tyrod stats this year.  I can definitely get why some people aren’t sold yet.

 

but I can’t imagine anyone arguing this list.  This is one of the best ones I’ve seen.  At this point, Allen wins with a strong defense and doesn’t have to carry a team.  But he certainly has upside.  

11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

what a crock of ? 

 

Huh?  

[Johnnycage46]

38 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

https://theathletic.com/1945894/2020/07/27/2020-quarterback-tiers-50-coaches-and-evaluators-rank-the-nfl-starters/

 

I didn't realize Sando had moved over to The Athletic, but he published his annual QB Tiers survey today where QBs are placed on 5 different tiers based on the votes of coaches and "evaluators".

 

Tier 1: A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

 

1. Mahomes/Wilson

3. Rodgers

4. Brees

5. Watson

 

Tier 2: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

 

6. Brady

7. Lamar

8. Big Ben

9. Stafford

10. Matt Ryan

11. Wentz

12. Dak

13. Rivers

 

Tier 3: A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

 

14. Kyler Murray

15. Cousins

16. Goff

17. Garoppolo

18. Tannehill

19. Cam Newton

20. Carr

21. Baker

22. Josh Allen

23. Bridgewater

24. Darnold

25. Daniel Jones

26. Nick Foles

 

Tier 4: A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

 

27. Mariota

28. Fitzpatrick

29. Tyrod

30. Drew Lock/Gardner Minshew

32. Trubisky

33. Haskins

34. Stidham

35. Kyle Allen

 

On Josh Allen:

Vote Breakdown:

• Tier 2: 4
• Tier 3: 40
• Tier 4: 6

 

 

Thanks for posting this.  My one thought on this is it would be interesting to see what Mahomes was without all of his weapons, similar to how Russel Wilson has basically carried the Seahawks for the last 4 or 5 years.  I am certainly not saying Mahomes would NOT be good/great, but I think it speaks more to just how damn impressive Wilson is and how he can put his team on his back year after year.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Huh?  

please Lamar get too much credit for having a good defense behind him and opposing defenses over reacting to his running threat. 
 

he is Tyrod 2.5.  
 

Let him play a few more years and let’s pass judgment then. 
 

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

please Lamar get too much credit for having a good defense behind him and opposing defenses over reacting to his running threat. 
 

he is Tyrod 2.5.  
 

Let him play a few more years and let’s pass judgment then. 
 

I could only imagine what we would have Allen ranked if won MVP after winning a Heisman.  And Why did you pick Tyrod?  I must have missed Tyrod’s 36 passing td season at age 23. Allen had a higher ranked defense and you realize Jackson is a huge reason for their running game success right?

 

a lot of double standards on this board.  As a critic of Allen, if he had the season Lamar did, I’d fight people who tried to discredit it haha. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Kirby Jackson]

Looks fair to me

[C.Biscuit97]

Can you link last years list?

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

please Lamar get too much credit for having a good defense behind him and opposing defenses over reacting to his running threat. 
 

he is Tyrod 2.5.  
 

Let him play a few more years and let’s pass judgment then. 
 

He’s the MVP of the league. He led the highest scoring offense in the league (by a substantial margin). Lamar Jackson is elite. Saying that doesn’t discredit Allen or anyone else. I’m not sure why we feel a need to discredit Lamar? As of right now, he’s one of the best QBs in football and trending up.

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

please Lamar get too much credit for having a good defense behind him and opposing defenses over reacting to his running threat. 
 

he is Tyrod 2.5.  
 

Let him play a few more years and let’s pass judgment then. 
 

Lamar is not Tyrod in any way my friend. He is the same exact guy in the NFL that he was in college. If anything I would say he's Kaep on steroids. The guy is electric. Our defense held him to his lowest output of the year in total yards from scrimmage, but not everyone has our defense to do that. If Lamar can improve his passing to the boundaries then it's lights out. Right now though he doesn't throw those very well. He loves his tall receivers whether they be TE or WR and a lot of his passing production comes off of the threat of his legs finding those tall receivers. The talent is there and he is in the perfect system for his skill set. You have to give credit where credit is due sometimes brother.

 

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I could only imagine when we would have Allen ranked if won MVP after winning a Heisman.  And Why did you pick Tyrod?  I must have missed Tyrod’s 36 passing td season at age 23. Allen had a higher ranked defense and you realize Jackson is a huge reason for their running game success right?

 

a lot of double standards on this board.  As a critic of Allen, if he had the season Lamar did, I’d fight people who tried to discredit it haha. 

If Allen had a year like Lamar then EVERYONE on here would be defending him if naysayers popped up. 

[BullBuchanan]

Based ont he definitions, I think it's pretty clear Ben is Tier 1, assuming injury plays no role in the list.
Dak is too high, Netwon (If injury isn't a factor) and Garoppolo too low, and Murray is too high. Tannehill is probably 6 games removed form Tier 4 status, but if he keeps it up, good for him.

Otherwise, it all seems plausible.

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s the MVP of the league. He led the highest scoring offense in the league (by a substantial margin). Lamar Jackson is elite. Saying that doesn’t discredit Allen or anyone else. I’m not sure why we feel a need to discredit Lamar? As of right now, he’s one of the best QBs in football and trending up.

If he improves his passing game further, he'll really suck to have in our conference.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

Lamar is not Tyrod in any way my friend. He is the same exact guy in the NFL that he was in college. If anything I would say he's Kaep on steroids. The guy is electric. Our defense held him to his lowest output of the year in total yards from scrimmage, but not everyone has our defense to do that. If Lamar can improve his passing to the boundaries then it's lights out. Right now though he doesn't throw those very well. He loves his tall receivers whether they be TE or WR and a lot of his passing production comes off of the threat of his legs finding those tall receivers. The talent is there and he is in the perfect system for his skill set. You have to give credit where credit is due sometimes brother.

 

If Allen had a year like Lamar then EVERYONE on here would be defending him if naysayers popped up. 

Agree a million percent.  If Allen throws for 30 plus tds in a year and I say a negative word about him, delete my account. 
 

it blows my mind that a franchise that has seen garbage offense for 2 decades can somehow knock a MVP qb.

[May Day 10]

The only thing that stands out to me is Watson in the top tier.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Sorry, but if I refuse to crown Lamar king after 2 seasons. 
 

as I said. Let’s see where he is in a few years. 
 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

The only thing that stands out to me is Watson in the top tier.

Watson is awesome.  He was awesome in college and he is awesome with an idiot running the team. We might have went to the SB with him last year. 

Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Sorry, but if I refuse to crown Lamar king after 2 seasons. 
 

as I said. Let’s see where he is in a few years. 
 

Where do you have Allen ranked?  And no one is crowning him.  But dude has had about as good of a career as any 23 year old ever.  

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Sorry, but if I refuse to crown Lamar king after 2 seasons. 
 

as I said. Let’s see where he is in a few years. 
 

I don't think anyone is saying he's the greatest QB in the game, but you can't deny that he has been absolutely electric. It's like Vick in the Atlanta years. Everyone knew Vick wasn't a pure passer, but he was the greatest athlete that anyone had seen at the position. Lamar is a step above Vick already in his development. Yes, we will have to see if his playing style is sustainable as even before the suspension Vick's body was breaking down on him just as Cam Newton and his now. At this point though I have absolutely 0 issue with Lamar being at #7. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Watson is awesome.  He was awesome in college and he is awesome with an idiot running the team. We might have went to the SB with him last year. 

Where do you have Allen ranked?  And no one is crowning him.  But dude has had about as good of a career as any 23 year old ever.  

 

Did I argue Josh's #.   

 

But since you asked, Josh is by far a better passer.  again My opinion.  

 

Jeff Hostetler was "successful" and won a SB, Trent Dilfer won one, Joe Flacco won one.    

 

How many reached  the HoF?  

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Did I argue Josh's #.   

 

But since you asked, Josh is by far a better passer.  again My opinion.  

 

Jeff Hostetler was "successful" and won a SB, Trent Dilfer won one, Joe Flacco won one.    

 

How many reached  the HoF?  

Allen is a far better passer??? He literally hasn’t been on any level ever.  I don’t know how you could possibly make that claim with any factual basis.  
 

and have no idea what the second part means. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[DCOrange]

28 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can you link last years list?

 

https://theathletic.com/1082093/2019/07/22/2019-nfl-quarterback-tiers-rankings/

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

 

https://theathletic.com/1082093/2019/07/22/2019-nfl-quarterback-tiers-rankings/

Thank you. But I don’t have a subscription haha.

[DCOrange]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thank you. But I don’t have a subscription haha.

Tier 1: 

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Brees

4. Mahomes

5. Luck

6. Rivers

7. Big Ben

8. Wilson

 

Tier 2:

9. Matt Ryan

10. Wentz

11. Stafford

12. Watson

13. Goff

14. Baker

 

Tier 3:

15. Cam Newton

16. Cousins

17. Dak

18. Foles

19. Garoppolo

20. Carr

21. Flacco

22. Dalton/Jameis

24. Eli Manning

25. Trubisky

26. Mariota

27. Darnold

 

Tier 4:

28. Lamar

29. Josh Allen

30. Fitzpatrick

31. Keenum

32. Rosen

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s the MVP of the league. He led the highest scoring offense in the league (by a substantial margin). Lamar Jackson is elite. Saying that doesn’t discredit Allen or anyone else. I’m not sure why we feel a need to discredit Lamar? As of right now, he’s one of the best QBs in football and trending up.

 

Just one slight caveat on this post (and I'm sure it is what you meant Kirbs so apologies if it feels pedantic) - Lamar was elite in 2019. Before saying someone IS elite they do have come back and put a couple of seasons at that sort of standard together. I am pretty confident Lamar is gonna be good in 2020 too, and if he is then he will be an established elite player and in tier 1. I suspect very strongly you agree with this.

[Mr. WEO]

Watson "carries his team on his back every week" and "has no holes in his game"??  Come on...

 

Here's a hole: "elite #1 WR".  Even with Hopkins, Watson ran a mediocre Offense.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Just one slight caveat on this post (and I'm sure it is what you meant Kirbs so apologies if it feels pedantic) - Lamar was elite in 2019. Before saying someone IS elite they do have come back and put a couple of seasons at that sort of standard together. I am pretty confident Lamar is gonna be good in 2020 too, and if he is then he will be an established elite player and in tier 1. I suspect very strongly you agree with this.

That’s fair. It was directed at those thinking that he’s getting too much credit in tier 2. The guy is a 23 year-old MVP!!  He’s by no means getting too much credit. If anything he’s being underrated by not being in tier 1. He has to follow up last year but even if he drops some he’s a tier 2 guy. If he has the EXACT same year as last year he’s, without question, a tier 1 QB. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Watson "carries his team on his back every week" and "has no holes in his game"??  Come on...

 

Here's a hole: "elite #1 WR".  Even with Hopkins, Watson ran a mediocre Offense.

 

He had Hopkins, no doubt. But he is worth 5 points a game to that offense from what it was with Hopkins and without Watson to what it was with Hopkins, a worse oline and Watson.

 

I could take an argument that as of today he is the top of tier 2, rather than hanging onto the end of tier 1. I think there is an argument to be had there. But he isn't any lower than that.

[May Day 10]

I dont doubt that Watson is really good.  I just wouldnt put him on the 'team on his back every week' category that they have of Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson.

[Billl]

21 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Tier 1: 

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Brees

4. Mahomes

5. Luck

6. Rivers

7. Big Ben

8. Wilson

 

Tier 2:

9. Matt Ryan

10. Wentz

11. Stafford

12. Watson

13. Goff

14. Baker

 

Tier 3:

15. Cam Newton

16. Cousins

17. Dak

18. Foles

19. Garoppolo

20. Carr

21. Flacco

22. Dalton/Jameis

24. Eli Manning

25. Trubisky

26. Mariota

27. Darnold

 

Tier 4:

28. Lamar

29. Josh Allen

30. Fitzpatrick

31. Keenum

32. Rosen

That list was really accurate based on what happened the following season.  It underrated Lamar and overrated Rivers.  Other than that, pretty hard to criticize it.

[John from Riverside]

Why does Baker continue to receive this much credit.......look at his weapons and look at where his team resides year after year.

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He had Hopkins, no doubt. But he is worth 5 points a game to that offense from what it was with Hopkins and without Watson to what it was with Hopkins, a worse oline and Watson.

 

I could take an argument that as of today he is the top of tier 2, rather than hanging onto the end of tier 1. I think there is an argument to be had there. But he isn't any lower than that.

 

I'll agree to that. But he's a fairly low-wattage passing QB who threw over 300 yds 3 times in 18 games and 3 passing TDs twice. After week 6 of the regular season., he had 2 rushing TDs (both in one game) until the playoffs. 

 

He carried his team at the end of the Bills game (by literally carrying poor Poyer into the endzone), but I don't see his as a QB who carries his team every week.  He doesn't. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Why does Baker continue to receive this much credit.......look at his weapons and look at where his team resides year after year.

 

Well, since has only played 2 years, you can accurately say "year after year".

 

Anyway, how is ranking him in the 3rd tier out of 4 (right with Josh), behind Tannehill (one year wonder), Newton (played a full season 3 years ago) and Murray (never played) "receiving this much credit"?

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I'll agree to that. But he's a fairly low-wattage passing QB who threw over 300 yds 3 times in 18 games and 3 passing TDs twice. After week 6 of the regular season., he had 2 rushing TDs (both in one game) until the playoffs. 

 

He carried his team at the end of the Bills game (by literally carrying poor Poyer into the endzone), but I don't see his as a QB who carries his team every week.  He doesn't. 

 

He has carried them plenty. Maybe not every week.... but most weeks he is their most important player. The lack of 300 yard passing days last year was at least in part on BO'B who wants to run the ball more. He just traded away an elite receiver for a darn running back! He had five 300 yard passing games in 2018 and two in 6 starts in 2017 as a rookie.

23 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I dont doubt that Watson is really good.  I just wouldnt put him on the 'team on his back every week' category that they have of Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson.

 

I think that is fair. I think he is almost in a no man's land between tier 1 and tier 2. I think he is in the right position in the list at #5. Whether he is in the right tier.... that is debateable.