Football in a pandemic era. It’s been done before..

[Johnnycage46]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

You know the date, but you don’t know the number (that’s would be the data, and it is wildly incomplete and understated). I don’t get why this is so hard for you, but I’m giving up. Have you been tested? Nobody in my family has been tested. To trust the number of confirmed cases as factual is just plain silly. It is FAR MORE ACTUAL CASES.  Too many people are asymptotic, or just mildly ill. I’m not as sleepy as I’m tired with this conversation. Have a nice holiday weekend. I mean that sincerely, hope you have a great time with family and friends (but not too many!). 

Data may be incomplete but it is all we have.  I agree there are likely far more cases.  We simply only know what the numbers currently say.

 

I also wondered why this was so hard for you (considering, as you first stated, you didn't have a horse in this race).  Time will tell.  But as I have said all along I am only responding to earlier posts regarding data comparisons and you and Timmy jumped in.  Never had a beef with you stew.

 

Good night. Off to watch some crappy Netflix.

[Putin]

10 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Scariest part of COVID-19 isn't the actual virus it's that I've realized half the country doesn't trust the media and the other half doesn't trust the government.

 

This is very scary to me.

So your saying politics is scarier then the virus ? 
I would   agree with that !!! 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Putin

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I will not respond after this because you and I have stated our cases and I will give you the last word. Current "hard" numbers are basically worthless and it is like predicting an NFL season based on one game. I wish you a good night.

It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives.

 

Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true.

 

Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%.

 

But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered.

[billspro]

9 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%.  Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%.  Can't just look at the total number of deaths.  The death rate is a more significant factor.

I’m not arguing one way or the other but those COVID stats are not even close to correct. 

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives.

 

Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true.

 

Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%.

 

But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered.

This will likely be where the data will end up. 

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Actually it CAN.  It's like saying you can't calculate your car's gas mileage right now and you have to wait until you sell your car for it to be official.  The DEATH RATE OF COVID-19 RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT 6%.  That is a fact based on available data.  Like I said already, those data may change, but right now it is fact.

 

I don't know if you do, but IF you do, please don't single-source your news.  It will broaden your world. 

 

FYI, I don't follow the news. I follow the data. And I gather from dozens of sources. My job is in data, data analysis, and economics. I know how to read studies and I know how easy it is to take clean data and interpret it in a biased manner. I also know how difficult it is to collect truly clean data.

 

I feel I'm unbiased in my opinions of COVID-19. I don't really care if it is like the flu, far worse, or if it turns us all into zombies. I'm pretty open to any outcome. But people deserve to know the limitations of the data and the interpretation thereof. And they deserve to know that the way the media presents data is often exaggerated or even straight up fraudulent.

[Johnnycage46]

6 minutes ago, billspro said:

I’m not arguing one way or the other but those COVID stats are not even close to correct. 

This will likely be where the data will end up. 

And how do you know this all mighty one?

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

FYI, I don't follow the news. I follow the data. And I gather from dozens of sources. My job is in data, data analysis, and economics. I know how to read studies and I know how easy it is to take clean data and interpret it in a biased manner. I also know how difficult it is to collect truly clean data.

 

I feel I'm unbiased in my opinions of COVID-19. I don't really care if it is like the flu, far worse, or if it turns us all into zombies. I'm pretty open to any outcome. But people deserve to know the limitations of the data and the interpretation thereof. And they deserve to know that the way the media presents data is often exaggerated or even straight up fraudulent.

The CDC is not the media.  I quoted the CDC about 10 times in this thread.  I know certain leaders have tried to discredit the CDC but that is just political posturing.

 

My profession is also in data analysis and economics.  But really that is moot.  The data presented by the CDC is the data presented by the CDC.

 

[billspro]

25 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

And how do you know this all mighty one?

The CDC is not the media.  I quoted the CDC about 10 times in this thread.  I know certain leaders have tried to discredit the CDC but that is just political posturing.

 

My profession is also in data analysis and economics.  But really that is moot.  The data presented by the CDC is the data presented by the CDC.

 

It’s just common sense. There will be more asymptotic people than expected when testing increases. The highest report I have seen was 4% but that was a long time ago. I don’t really follow the CDC but in Canada it has been getting lower. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by billspro

[Johnnycage46]

4 minutes ago, billspro said:

It’s just common sense. There will be more asymptotic people than expected when testing increases. The highest report I have seen was 4% but that was a long time ago. I don’t really follow the CDC but in Canada it was around 1% the last time I checked. 

The CDC is a US entity.  Here in the US the death rate as of 5/24/2020 is about 6%.  @Augie

Edited May 25, 2020 by Johnnycage46

[billspro]

1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

The CDC is a US entity.  Here in the US the death rate as of 5/24/2020 is about 6%.  

Yes but the numbers are greatly skewed because those are confirmed cases. They would be lucky to have tested half of the people who actually had the disease. Still very high numbers and scary. 

[Johnnycage46]

1 minute ago, billspro said:

Yes but the numbers are greatly skewed because those are confirmed cases. They would be lucky to have tested half of the people who actually had the disease. Still very high numbers and scary. 

As I stated about 15 times.  CONFIRMED cases.  That is hard data.  Anything else is speculation.  I agree the numbers can change over time.  Right now, the numbers I reported are accurate.

[billspro]

1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

As I stated about 15 times.  CONFIRMED cases.  That is hard data.  Anything else is speculation.  I agree the numbers can change over time.  Right now, the numbers I reported are accurate.

Those number are what is reported but they are not accurate. If you understood virus epidemiology than you would realize that. You would have to test every single person for accurate data and even then there would be some errors due to false positives and false negatives. You also have to factor in multifactorial deaths which gets complicated. What the data shows is a high estimate. The death rate is likely somewhere between 0.5-6.5 %. Hopefully, the numbers they have are incorrect for all our sakes. 

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives.

 

Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true.

 

Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%.

 

But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered.

Give it a rest, MJS. No one understands your 1st post and it’s gone all downhill from there.

 

Anyhoo, wifee & I spent a couple hours at the beach today. Distanced ourselves sufficiently and -while we didn’t wear masks, had them nearby. The scene was unsettling. Many groups of 10 or more and a lot of them were seen mingling with other folks just walking by. 

I have a sinking feeling feeling about football in the Fall..

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, Putin said:

So your saying politics is scarier then the virus ? 
I would agree with that !!! 

Well yeah, but people in general are. Once people believe everyone is lying to them is when empires fall. Scary times. US is a volcano ready to erupt.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

And why would anyone trust the government?   Most of which are self serving slime balls who will change their "beliefs" at the drop of a hat to stay in office and keep that sweet power.

 

 

 

You're confusing the government with elected officials.

 

Why would you trust the government? You shouldn't unless they listen to the medical experts.

 

Good elected officials, of either party, will listen to the medical experts and act accordingly.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, MJS said:

The "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic in 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US.

 

In 1957 the "Asian Flu" killed 116,000 people in the US.

 

Both significantly more than COVID-19 when you account for population growth.

 

 

Um, people are still dying of COVID. As in football games, it ain't over till it's over. As with most pandemics, there's likely to be a second wave and we really don't know how big that will be.

 

Thank goodness for social distancing. There have been massive failures in how this was handled. But what was done still seems so has drastically cut down the numbers we would have seen. Not cut nearly as much as could have been, but still a major difference was made.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Nelius]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

 

Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true.

 

 

The problem is that that if you believe the latter, then you're likely ignoring the disease even if the former is true. You can't properly manage an infectious disease if you're simultaneously allowing people to ignore it if they want, regardless of how truly terrible it ends up being.  So on and on we go.

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Nelius

[Mrbojanglezs]

16 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%.  Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%.  Can't just look at the total number of deaths.  The death rate is a more significant factor.

 

The death rate is not that high for covid. Antibody testing is showing much higher numbers of people who had it but had no symptoms, those people never got tested positive.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Mrbojanglezs

[Bob in STL]

19 hours ago, MJS said:

The "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic in 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US.

 

In 1957 the "Asian Flu" killed 116,000 people in the US.

 

Both significantly more than COVID-19 when you account for population growth.

This is not a good way to look at it.  

18 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Scariest part of COVID-19 isn't the actual virus it's that I've realized half the country doesn't trust the media and the other half doesn't trust the government.

 

This is very scary to me.

It is scary.  Especially when the majority of the media is in bed with one party.  The power of the media should not be underestimated.  

Edited May 25, 2020 by Bob in STL

[SoCal Deek]

Or....we could use the data (we have tons of it now) and simply protect the vulnerable members of our society, just like we do with every other disease.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

29 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

This is not a good way to look at it.  

It is scary.  Especially when the majority of the media is in bed with one party.  They power of the media should not be underestimated.  

Problem with most of the media today is that it lacks objectivity. That goes for every side. 

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

This thread shouldn’t be on the main wall anymore. Honestly it never should of been. The fact it was and started by a mod is disappointing.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This thread shouldn’t be on the main wall anymore. Honestly it never should of been. The fact it was and started by a mod is disappointing.

Why does it bother you? You’re welcome to ignore it. Do you yell at the mailman everyday when he puts junk mail in your box? Or, feel free to turn the dialogue back towards the Bills games. Do you think they should play in September?

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

18 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? Think about why it would be bad if people don't trust media or the government.

Is it because the Government has nukes and all we have is AR's, pistols and shotguns. So your saying the government doesn't care if you trust them or not, they will just Chernobyl your ass and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Call_Of_Ktulu

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Scariest part of COVID-19 isn't the actual virus it's that I've realized half the country doesn't trust the media and the other half doesn't trust the government.

 

This is very scary to me.

I don’t trust either.... guess that makes me half and half? 

[meazza]

19 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%.  Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%.  Can't just look at the total number of deaths.  The death rate is a more significant factor.

 

Umm not even close to being accurate.

[meazza]

13 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Here ya go:  https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

 

This is the US CDC for US cases and deaths.  Sits at about 5.9% or, as I said about 6%.  In my original post I quoted global data that I found through a simple Google search looking for "COVID-19 death rate".

 

The 1% is not accurate.  About 6 time too low.

 

Also, your link is 2 weeks out of date, AND a predictive model...NOT actual rate based on actual collected data.

 

This is based on people tested yet there is tons of data showing that many more people have the virus than actually tested literally showing little or no symptoms so the death rate is closer to 0.2-0.6%.

 

 

[scuba guy]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

In 1968 I had the Hong Kong Flu, it sucked.  Currently we are approaching 100,000.00 dead from Covid -19 and the deaths continue to tally, and will  eclipse the Asian flu in a month. Consider this, we are in a time with far better medical knowledge, so it would appear that Covid -19 is equally or more deadly than these other out breaks, and very likely worse. The time for the final count of Covid-19 deaths has yet to come.  Conservatively it will eclipsed 150,000.00 before this year is over. 

Several of my friends are Drs and nurses most deaths not all are from it 

Example older person dies in hospice care goes down as pneumonia family doesn't want otopsy goes down as cov 19

 

Sad but my Dr friends are being told to do just that

[Buffalo_Stampede]

49 minutes ago, scuba guy said:

Several of my friends are Drs and nurses most deaths not all are from it 

Example older person dies in hospice care goes down as pneumonia family doesn't want otopsy goes down as cov 19

 

Sad but my Dr friends are being told to do just that

Bull crap. Being told by who?

[JaCrispy]

14 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Here ya go:  https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

 

This is the US CDC for US cases and deaths.  Sits at about 5.9% or, as I said about 6%.  In my original post I quoted global data that I found through a simple Google search looking for "COVID-19 death rate".

 

The 1% is not accurate.  About 6 time too low.

 

Also, your link is 2 weeks out of date, AND a predictive model...NOT actual rate based on actual collected data.

https://bit.ly/2XtnzF3

[Johnnycage46]

1 hour ago, meazza said:

 

Umm not even close to being accurate.

Actually, very close.  Thanks for stopping by.  Read the whole thread.

1 hour ago, meazza said:

 

This is based on people tested yet there is tons of data showing that many more people have the virus than actually tested literally showing little or no symptoms so the death rate is closer to 0.2-0.6%.

 

 

Read the whole thread.  It has been stated over, and over, and over again that this is based on current data....which is all we have.  The original comment was in reply to other pandemics.

[meazza]

1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Actually, very close.  Thanks for stopping by.  Read the whole thread.

 

I read the whole thread and you're incorrect.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

 

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

[MJS]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Give it a rest, MJS. No one understands your 1st post and it’s gone all downhill from there.

 

Anyhoo, wifee & I spent a couple hours at the beach today. Distanced ourselves sufficiently and -while we didn’t wear masks, had them nearby. The scene was unsettling. Many groups of 10 or more and a lot of them were seen mingling with other folks just walking by. 

I have a sinking feeling feeling about football in the Fall..

My first post was confusing? I listed two more pandemics, one in the 50's and one in the 60's, that had "football in a pandemic era", which was the topic of the thread.

 

I thought those would be a little more relevant than the 1918 pandemic (when considering pro football) since the other two are more recent and can be more easily compared to our situation today. The Green Bay Packers weren't even founded till 1919.

[Johnnycage46]

7 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

I read the whole thread and you're incorrect.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

 

 

 

Dude, I said the goddamned data is from the CDC, based on available data...not assumptions (even if those assumptions are from the CDC).  I have stated over and over again that the data I reported are based on available numbers.  I agree that at the end of the day, the death rate is likely to change as more cases are revealed (which I stated repeatedly in this thread).  I have responded to this enough.  What I presented, and the way I framed it, is correct (i.e. available data, with the notion that numbers could and likely would change).

22 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

https://bit.ly/2XtnzF3

Thanks for the link.  I did see that report.  But again, what I presented are the DATA AT THIS TIME.  I could not have made that more clear.  I did not offer any predictions or theories (such as the CDC is doing in its report)...I just stated the data as it stands as of 5/24/2020 via the CDC website.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Johnnycage46

[MJS]

17 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

https://bit.ly/2XtnzF3

 

A lot of the antibody testing data is pretty remarkable. COVID-19 could be the most infectious disease of all time, potentially spreading without 90% of people even showing symptoms.

 

I also find it really interesting that children are so unaffected. I know a few have gotten it, but by and large they don't. And a there is a lot of evidence that suggests that there are virtually no cases of a child transmitting the disease to an adult. Makes me wonder what it is about children that gives them such an immunity. I wonder if is a vaccine most get as a baby or toddler, but worldwide many children don't get vaccines, so that's probably not it.

[Success]

3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This thread shouldn’t be on the main wall anymore. Honestly it never should of been. The fact it was and started by a mod is disappointing.

It's top of mind stuff.  All of the other transaction & player development threads are fairly meaningless if the season is fully or partially cancelled.

 

Not sure why it wouldn't be on the main board.

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, scuba guy said:

Several of my friends are Drs and nurses most deaths not all are from it 

Example older person dies in hospice care goes down as pneumonia family doesn't want otopsy goes down as cov 19

 

Sad but my Dr friends are being told to do just that

No offense intended, but I don’t believe that for a second. 

[Meatloaf63]

22 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%.  Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%.  Can't just look at the total number of deaths.  The death rate is a more significant factor.

The true death rate actually lies between .1 - .01 6% is nothing but a scare tactic. It may spread more quickly than the flu, but it doesn’t kill at a higher rate....

[Meatloaf63]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bull crap. Being told by who?

It’s not bull crap it’s a new CDC guide line on how to code the deaths. Look at the legislature  that forced Colorado to change how they report deaths now. It’s now nuanced to show those who died from and those who died with, big difference over 23% in Colorado, different in each state since the CDC bungled this.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

It’s not bull crap it’s a new CDC guide line on how to code the deaths. Look at the legislature  that forced Colorado to change how they report deaths now. It’s now nuanced to show those who died from and those who died with, big difference over 23% in Colorado, different in each state since the CDC bungled this.

You said doctors were being told to say deaths were coronavirus deaths when they weren't. To me that's bull. 

[Johnnycage46]

43 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

The true death rate actually lies between .1 - .01 6% is nothing but a scare tactic. It may spread more quickly than the flu, but it doesn’t kill at a higher rate....

No, not really.  The true death rate based on current available data is about 6%.  It will likely change once more data is collected.  But right now that is the death rate based on currently collected and released data.