Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[TwistofFate]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

That’s passing “grade” not accuracy.

 

And if you can be bothered to post an infographic out of snarkiness, you can post a link that you apparently can find quite easily since you’ve posted it so often over the last few months. You made the statement, I’m simply asking you to back it up.

Im telling you to look it up.   You question it, go through my previous posts.  

 

I've backed it up. 

[Chandler#81]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

Im telling you to look it up.   You question it, go through my previous posts.  

 

I've backed it up. 

Here’s a tip, consider the source and let him be. He’s never right yet, undaunted, he’ll strike from every angle, cuz ‘he KNOWS better’..?‍♂️

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

Im telling you to look it up.   You question it, go through my previous posts.  

 

I've backed it up. 

Ok, so you make a blanket statement with no supporting evidence and it’s everyone else’s job to substantiate it?

 

I mean, I posted 2 articles that discuss at length the correlation between ANY/A and TD% and winning, and I accompany that with the actual numbers. You’ve provided neither a reference nor the relevant statistics.

 

I’m 100% sure that you know it’s impossible to have any credibility that way.

Just now, Chandler#81 said:

Here’s a tip, consider the source and let him be. He’s never right yet, undaunted, he’ll strike from every angle, cuz ‘he KNOWS better’..?‍♂️

That’s rich. I’m “never right”? 
 

We’ve entered crazy town.

[Billl]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

That’s passing “grade” not accuracy.

 

And if you can be bothered to post an infographic out of snarkiness, you can post a link that you apparently can find quite easily since you’ve posted it so often over the last few months. You made the statement, I’m simply asking you to back it up.

Link notwithstanding, let’s just look at the results and draw a conclusion.

 

If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out.  (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.)
 

Group A:  Rosen, Tannehill, Eli, Trubisky, Darnold, Mariota, Winston, Bortles

 

Group B: Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Wilson

 

One of those is a group of the top rated QBs, and the other is a group of bottom rated QBs.  Out of 100 people who at least casually follow the NFL, do you think even 1 would have a tough time figuring out which list was which?  I don’t.  Their metric seems to do a pretty good job of sorting them.  That isn’t to say there isn’t some variance, but the trend is accurate, and there don’t appear to be any wild outliers.

 

Given that this is old data, it doesn’t match today’s rankings as accurately as newer data would, but they’re clearly not just throwing darts.

[thebandit27]

20 minutes ago, Billl said:

Link notwithstanding, let’s just look at the results and draw a conclusion.

 

If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out.  (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.)
 

Group A:  Rosen, Tannehill, Eli, Trubisky, Darnold, Mariota, Winston, Bortles

 

Group B: Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Wilson

 

One of those is a group of the top rated QBs, and the other is a group of bottom rated QBs.  Out of 100 people who at least casually follow the NFL, do you think even 1 would have a tough time figuring out which list was which?  I don’t.  Their metric seems to do a pretty good job of sorting them.  That isn’t to say there isn’t some variance, but the trend is accurate, and there don’t appear to be any wild outliers.

 

Given that this is old data, it doesn’t match today’s rankings as accurately as newer data would, but they’re clearly not just throwing darts.

No, I don’t think PFF is throwing darts. I have my reservations about their methodology, but they’ve got a system and people seem to respect it.

 

All I’m asking for is the raw data that Twist flatly stated way back. I’d like to see the reference that shows clean-pocket passing and catchable pass percentage are the two key indicators of a franchise QB, and I’d like to see the data that shows that Allen is deficient in those areas.

I searched around and haven’t found that data; my previous endeavors unearthed the ANY/A and TD% study. Personally, I like to see all the data and understand if there’s “one metric to rule them all” (aside from winning).

 

Again, I’m not going to polish an apple. Allen’s got work to do. What I always find ridiculous are the extremes that people will go to when talking about him. The idea that he’s horribly inaccurate just isn’t true. He needs to keep improving, but 21st in on-target percentage isn’t exactly the ?-show that some folks want to proclaim.

[Motorin']

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Its comes from......rule changes. 

 

How NFL Rules Changes Created a Golden Era of Quarterback Stats

 

https://www.insidehook.com/article/sports/nfl-rule-changes-created-golden-era-quarterback-stats

 

The game was not "completely different" by any stretch of the imagination, and the 2000's is the "modern" NFL. You're acting like they played with leather helmets and ran the Wing-T back when Brady won his first Super Bowl. Are you old enough to have watch the Greatest Show on Turf play? 

 

 

35 minutes ago, Billl said:

Link notwithstanding, let’s just look at the results and draw a conclusion.

 

If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out.  (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.)
 

Group A:  Rosen, Tannehill, Eli, Trubisky, Darnold, Mariota, Winston, Bortles

 

Group B: Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Wilson

 

One of those is a group of the top rated QBs, and the other is a group of bottom rated QBs.  Out of 100 people who at least casually follow the NFL, do you think even 1 would have a tough time figuring out which list was which?  I don’t.  Their metric seems to do a pretty good job of sorting them.  That isn’t to say there isn’t some variance, but the trend is accurate, and there don’t appear to be any wild outliers.

 

Given that this is old data, it doesn’t match today’s rankings as accurately as newer data would, but they’re clearly not just throwing darts.

 

The idea that you would put Eli Manning in the same category as Rosen, Trubisky and Bortles is enough evidence to prove you don't actually know how to watch football. 

[ngbills]

32 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

No, I don’t think PFF is throwing darts. I have my reservations about their methodology, but they’ve got a system and people seem to respect it.

 

All I’m asking for is the raw data that Twist flatly stated way back. I’d like to see the reference that shows clean-pocket passing and catchable pass percentage are the two key indicators of a franchise QB, and I’d like to see the data that shows that Allen is deficient in those areas.

I searched around and haven’t found that data; my previous endeavors unearthed the ANY/A and TD% study. Personally, I like to see all the data and understand if there’s “one metric to rule them all” (aside from winning).

 

Again, I’m not going to polish an apple. Allen’s got work to do. What I always find ridiculous are the extremes that people will go to when talking about him. The idea that he’s horribly inaccurate just isn’t true. He needs to keep improving, but 21st in on-target percentage isn’t exactly the ?-show that some folks want to proclaim.

I dont read on here anyone being extremely negative. Unless saying at this point in his career he is in the bottom tier of QB's as a passer. With a good defense and his running ability you can have seasons like last year. But he has not shown that he can be a top tier QB yet. You can debate the stats dont mean anything, etc etc. But stats at this point mean more than opinions. If that is ridiculous to say then you are just not being objective. 

[thebandit27]

28 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I dont read on here anyone being extremely negative. Unless saying at this point in his career he is in the bottom tier of QB's as a passer. With a good defense and his running ability you can have seasons like last year. But he has not shown that he can be a top tier QB yet. You can debate the stats dont mean anything, etc etc. But stats at this point mean more than opinions. If that is ridiculous to say then you are just not being objective. 

Most of that is perfectly reasonable. But you definitely see folks in this very thread saying things like “dead last in accuracy” etc. And let’s remember how the current discussion in which I’m involved got started: I asked where a poster found certain data. Not only was that never answered (beyond “find it yourself by searching through all of my previous posts”) but it apparently was nefarious enough to incite vitriol from a mod ?

[TwistofFate]

12 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

The game was not "completely different" by any stretch of the imagination, and the 2000's is the "modern" NFL. You're acting like they played with leather helmets and ran the Wing-T back when Brady won his first Super Bowl. Are you old enough to have watch the Greatest Show on Turf play? 

 

 

 

Quote

 

 

I'm old enough to know the greatest show on turf is a common occurrence in today's "modern" NFL, otherwise known as the Golden Era of Quarterbacking.  I'm also old enough to know that Qb's from the 70s-90s could easily play in today's NFL but the same could not be said for today's Qb's playing back in that time.

 

The game was absolutely different and it can be proven based on passing statistics and how they correlate to rule changes.  For a little over 15 years starting in the mid 90s, rule changes continuously gave offenses an advantage.  For the sake of time and research I will begin in depth with the year 2000. (starting in depth from 90 would show a more clear picture)

 

4000+ yard passers / Major rule changes

 

2000 - 3 Qbs - Major rule changes - Anyone wearing an eligible number (1 to 49 or 80 to 89) can play quarterback without having to first report to the referee before a play.

• This rule change resulted in the increase of trick plays teams can employ on offense.

2001 - 2 Qbs - Major rule changes - Taunting rules and roughing the passer will be strictly enforced.

 

2002 - 4 Qbs - Major rule changes - A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds.

• Hitting a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession is illegal.

2003 - 2 Qbs -  Major Rule changes - Nothing of importance is noteworthy.

 

2004 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Officials are instructed to strictly enforce illegal contact, pass interference, and defensive holding.

 

2005 - 2 Qbs - Major Rule changes - The “horse-collar tackle” is prohibited.

• During field goal and extra point attempts, the defensive team will be penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct if it calls consecutive timeouts in an attempt to "ice" the kicker.
• If the defensive team commits a dead ball foul following the end of the half, the offensive team may choose to extend the period for one more play.

2006 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Defenders were prohibited from hitting a passer in the knee or below unless they are blocked into him.

• The "horse-collar tackle" rule enacted during the previous 2005 season was expanded. Players are now prohibited from tackling a ball carrier from the rear by tugging inside his jersey

 

2007 - 7 Qbs - (the first time the league had ever seen 7qbs over 4000 yards in a season) - Major Rule changes -

• A completed catch is now when a receiver gets two feet down and has control of the ball. Previously, a receiver had to make "a football move" in addition to having control of the ball for a reception.
• It will now be a 15-yard penalty (rather than 5 yards) for a player to make a block below the waist against an eligible receiver while the quarterback is in the pocket.

5000+ yard passers enter the NFL for the first time ever.

 

2008 - 6qbs, including one 5k passer - Major rule changes - Starting in 2008, every facemask infraction now cost the offending team 15 yards.

 

2009 - 9Qbs - Major Rule changes - The initial contact to the head of a defenseless receiver is also prohibited.

• Clarified the 2006 rule about hitting passers below the knees; a defender on the ground cannot lunge or dive at or below the passer's knees. This is unofficially referred to as the "Tom Brady Rule"

At this halfway junction I would like to reflect on a few points.  The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw the greatest jump in passing the NFL had ever seen to date.  As rule changes favoring the offense began to mount starting in the mid 90s, the exponential average in which 4k passers grew was astounding.

 

• 90-94 - 1.6  Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 95-99 - 2.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 00-04 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 05-09 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards, including the first ever 5k passer.

On to what is referred to by many as "the golden era of Quarterbacking"

 

2010 - 5 Qbs - Major rule changes - The definition of a "defenseless receiver" will now apply to every defenseless player.

 

2011 - 10 Qbs, including 3 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - The 2011 season saw an unprecedented amount of passing offense: Three of the nine highest passing yardage totals of all time were established: No. 2 Drew Brees (5,476), No. 3 Tom Brady (5,235), and No. 9 Matthew Stafford (5,038) - Major Rule Changes -

 

• Hits to the head of a passer-by an opponent’s hands, arms or other parts of the body will not be fouls unless they are forcible blows, modifying the existing rule that any contact to a passer's head, regardless of the reason, is penalized as a personal foul (15 yards).
• Players will be prohibited from "launching" (leaving both feet prior to contact to spring forward and upward into an opponent or using any part of the helmet to initiate forcible contact against any part of the opponent’s body) to level a defenseless player, as well as "forcibly hitting the neck or head area with the helmet, facemask, forearm or shoulder regardless of whether the defensive player also uses his arms to tackle the defenseless player by encircling or grasping him.", and lowering the head and make forcible contact with the top/crown or forehead/"hairline" parts of the helmet against any part of the defenseless player’s body. Offenders will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness and ejected from the game if the contact is deemed flagrant.

• A "defenseless player" is defined as a:

• Player in the act of or just after throwing a pass.
• Receiver attempting to catch a pass or one who has not completed a catch and hasn’t had time to protect himself or hasn’t clearly become a runner. If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defenseless player.
• Runner whose forward progress has been stopped and is already in the grasp of a tackler.
• Kickoff or punt returner attempting to field a kick in the air.
• Player on the ground at the end of a play.
• Kicker/punter during the kick or return.
• Quarterback any time after a change of possession (i.e. turnover).
• Player who receives a "blindside" block when the blocker is moving toward his own end-line and approaches the opponent from behind or the side

2012 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Adding anyone who is subject to a crack-back block to the list of defenseless players.

 

2013 - 9 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Any player at least three yards downfield or outside of the "tackle box" who leads with his helmet on a hit will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness. If both offensive and defensive players lead with helmets on the same play, both will be penalized.

 

2014 - 11 Qbs - Major rule changes - The league has instructed game officials to strictly enforce offensive pass interference, defensive holding, and illegal contact.

 

2015 - 12 Qbs - Major rule changes - The 'process' rule on making a catch while going to the ground is adjusted. A receiver will be considered to have made a catch if they "clearly establish themselves as a runner" before going to the ground. Previously a receiver had to make a 'football move'

 

2016 - 13 Qbs , including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes -

• Expand the definition of a "horse-collar tackle" to include tackles where a player is grabbed by the jersey at or above the name plate and dragged to the ground.

2017 - 8 Qbs - Major rule changes -

• Include in the definition of a "defenseless player" receivers tracking the quarterback or looking back for the ball, including inside the legal contact (5 yards from the line of scrimmage) zone.
• Egregious hits to the head (similar to the "targeting" rule in NCAA football) will cause the player to risk immediate disqualification.

2018 - 12 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes -

• A ball carrier may slide either head first or feet first to be considered giving himself up on the play, and he is afforded all protections previously provided to a runner sliding feet first.

2019 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark -  Major rule changes - Nothing noteworthy

 

At ending, we can continue to see the effect rule changes have had on the NFL as the exponential average increase continues.  The major rule changes of 2011 completely changed the landscape for offenses and Qbs, and ushered in an era of passing never before seen in the NFL. Rule changes were nowhere near as substantial for offenses following the 2011 season, in fact over the last few seasons, changes began to benefit defenses in an attempt to balance what quickly became a run away train. DISCLAIMER: I did not mark every rule change implemented, just ones that pertained primarily to offenses----

 

• 2000-2004 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards
• 2005-2009 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards, including one 5000 yard performance
• 2010-2014 - 9.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including six 5000 yard performances
• 2015-2019 - 11.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including four 5000 yard performances

 

In closing, it is clear to see that "The game was not "completely different" by any stretch of the imagination," is probably the most ignorant statement a fan of the game can make.  It was completely different.  From 2000 to 2009, an average of 14% of NFL Qbs averaged 4k.  From 2010 to 2019, its a whopping 32% including 10 passing performances over 5000 yards. (10 times the previous decade)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by TwistofFate

[Motorin']

42 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

I'm old enough to know the greatest show on turf is a common occurrence in today's "modern" NFL, otherwise known as the Golden Era of Quarterbacking.  I'm also old enough to know that Qb's from the 70s-90s could easily play in today's NFL but the same could not be said for today's Qb's playing back in that time.

 

The game was absolutely different and it can be proven based on passing statistics and how they correlate to rule changes.  For a little over 15 years starting in the mid 90s, rule changes continuously gave offenses an advantage.  For the sake of time and research I will begin in depth with the year 2000. (starting in depth from 90 would show a more clear picture)

 

4000+ yard passers / Major rule changes

 

2000 - 3 Qbs - Major rule changes - Anyone wearing an eligible number (1 to 49 or 80 to 89) can play quarterback without having to first report to the referee before a play.

• This rule change resulted in the increase of trick plays teams can employ on offense.

2001 - 2 Qbs - Major rule changes - Taunting rules and roughing the passer will be strictly enforced.

 

2002 - 4 Qbs - Major rule changes - A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds.

• Hitting a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession is illegal.

2003 - 2 Qbs -  Major Rule changes - Nothing of importance is noteworthy.

 

2004 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Officials are instructed to strictly enforce illegal contact, pass interference, and defensive holding.

 

2005 - 2 Qbs - Major Rule changes - The “horse-collar tackle” is prohibited.

• During field goal and extra point attempts, the defensive team will be penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct if it calls consecutive timeouts in an attempt to "ice" the kicker.
• If the defensive team commits a dead ball foul following the end of the half, the offensive team may choose to extend the period for one more play.

2006 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Defenders were prohibited from hitting a passer in the knee or below unless they are blocked into him.

• The "horse-collar tackle" rule enacted during the previous 2005 season was expanded. Players are now prohibited from tackling a ball carrier from the rear by tugging inside his jersey

 

2007 - 7 Qbs - (the first time the league had ever seen 7qbs over 4000 yards in a season) - Major Rule changes -

• A completed catch is now when a receiver gets two feet down and has control of the ball. Previously, a receiver had to make "a football move" in addition to having control of the ball for a reception.
• It will now be a 15-yard penalty (rather than 5 yards) for a player to make a block below the waist against an eligible receiver while the quarterback is in the pocket.

5000+ yard passers enter the NFL for the first time ever.

 

2008 - 6qbs, including one 5k passer - Major rule changes - Starting in 2008, every facemask infraction now cost the offending team 15 yards.

 

2009 - 9Qbs - Major Rule changes - The initial contact to the head of a defenseless receiver is also prohibited.

• Clarified the 2006 rule about hitting passers below the knees; a defender on the ground cannot lunge or dive at or below the passer's knees. This is unofficially referred to as the "Tom Brady Rule"

At this halfway junction I would like to reflect on a few points.  The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw the greatest jump in passing the NFL had ever seen to date.  As rule changes favoring the offense began to mount starting in the mid 90s, the exponential average in which 4k passers grew was astounding.

 

• 90-94 - 1.6  Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 95-99 - 2.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 00-04 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards
• 05-09 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards, including the first ever 5k passer.

On to what is referred to by many as "the golden era of Quarterbacking"

 

2010 - 5 Qbs - Major rule changes - The definition of a "defenseless receiver" will now apply to every defenseless player.

 

2011 - 10 Qbs, including 3 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - The 2011 season saw an unprecedented amount of passing offense: Three of the nine highest passing yardage totals of all time were established: No. 2 Drew Brees (5,476), No. 3 Tom Brady (5,235), and No. 9 Matthew Stafford (5,038) - Major Rule Changes -

 

• Hits to the head of a passer-by an opponent’s hands, arms or other parts of the body will not be fouls unless they are forcible blows, modifying the existing rule that any contact to a passer's head, regardless of the reason, is penalized as a personal foul (15 yards).
• Players will be prohibited from "launching" (leaving both feet prior to contact to spring forward and upward into an opponent or using any part of the helmet to initiate forcible contact against any part of the opponent’s body) to level a defenseless player, as well as "forcibly hitting the neck or head area with the helmet, facemask, forearm or shoulder regardless of whether the defensive player also uses his arms to tackle the defenseless player by encircling or grasping him.", and lowering the head and make forcible contact with the top/crown or forehead/"hairline" parts of the helmet against any part of the defenseless player’s body. Offenders will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness and ejected from the game if the contact is deemed flagrant.

• A "defenseless player" is defined as a:

• Player in the act of or just after throwing a pass.
• Receiver attempting to catch a pass or one who has not completed a catch and hasn’t had time to protect himself or hasn’t clearly become a runner. If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defenseless player.
• Runner whose forward progress has been stopped and is already in the grasp of a tackler.
• Kickoff or punt returner attempting to field a kick in the air.
• Player on the ground at the end of a play.
• Kicker/punter during the kick or return.
• Quarterback any time after a change of possession (i.e. turnover).
• Player who receives a "blindside" block when the blocker is moving toward his own end-line and approaches the opponent from behind or the side

2012 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Adding anyone who is subject to a crack-back block to the list of defenseless players.

 

2013 - 9 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Any player at least three yards downfield or outside of the "tackle box" who leads with his helmet on a hit will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness. If both offensive and defensive players lead with helmets on the same play, both will be penalized.

 

2014 - 11 Qbs - Major rule changes - The league has instructed game officials to strictly enforce offensive pass interference, defensive holding, and illegal contact.

 

2015 - 12 Qbs - Major rule changes - The 'process' rule on making a catch while going to the ground is adjusted. A receiver will be considered to have made a catch if they "clearly establish themselves as a runner" before going to the ground. Previously a receiver had to make a 'football move'

 

2016 - 13 Qbs , including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes -

• Expand the definition of a "horse-collar tackle" to include tackles where a player is grabbed by the jersey at or above the name plate and dragged to the ground.

2017 - 8 Qbs - Major rule changes -

• Include in the definition of a "defenseless player" receivers tracking the quarterback or looking back for the ball, including inside the legal contact (5 yards from the line of scrimmage) zone.
• Egregious hits to the head (similar to the "targeting" rule in NCAA football) will cause the player to risk immediate disqualification.

2018 - 12 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes -

• A ball carrier may slide either head first or feet first to be considered giving himself up on the play, and he is afforded all protections previously provided to a runner sliding feet first.

2019 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark -  Major rule changes - Nothing noteworthy

 

At ending, we can continue to see the effect rule changes have had on the NFL as the exponential average increase continues.  The major rule changes of 2011 completely changed the landscape for offenses and Qbs, and ushered in an era of passing never before seen in the NFL. Rule changes were nowhere near as substantial for offenses following the 2011 season, in fact over the last few seasons, changes began to benefit defenses in an attempt to balance what quickly became a run away train. DISCLAIMER: I did not mark every rule change implemented, just ones that pertained primarily to offenses----

 

• 2000-2004 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards
• 2005-2009 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards, including one 5000 yard performance
• 2010-2014 - 9.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including six 5000 yard performances
• 2015-2019 - 11.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including four 5000 yard performances

 

In closing, it is clear to see that "The game was not "completely different" by any stretch of the imagination," is probably the most ignorant statement a fan of the game can make.  It was completely different.  From 2000 to 2009, an average of 14% of NFL Qbs averaged 4k.  From 2010 to 2019, its a whopping 32% including 10 passing performances over 5000 yards. (10 times the previous decade)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's a whole lot of energy and words to try to prove you're right.

 

It has got to suck for you to be a Bills fan right now knowing that you have the statistical proof that your team's QB will fail to live up to expectations. 

 

I personally can't wait to watch the Bills play next year, and I'm really excited to see Allen's growth in year 3. Go Bills! 

 

 

[TwistofFate]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

That's a whole lot of energy and words to try to prove you're right.

 

It has got to suck for you to be a Bills fan right now knowing that you have the statistical proof that your team's QB will fail to live up to expectations. 

 

I personally can't wait to watch the Bills play next year, and I'm really excited to see Allen's growth in year 3. Go Bills! 

 

 

Me neither.  Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen.  I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to.  When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more.  I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Me neither.  Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen.  I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to.  When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more.  I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

 

Then you are probably never going to love Allen because he is anomalous in so many ways. I am not as convinced as some here that he is destined to be a great Quarterback. I think he has a chance but it remains a question. Even if he is I still expect him to be somewhat of an anomaly when his stats and career arc are measured against his peers so you really have to throw out those comparisons and compare Josh against himself and look at his own improvement independent of statistical indicators.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

Me neither.  Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen.  I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to.  When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more.  I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

You must have loved Taylor lol

[TwistofFate]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You must have loved Taylor lol

I actually did.   I thought he was a true professional and a team guy.  Always said the right thing and never threw anyone under the bus. 

 

I hope he does really well this year being back with Lynn. 

 

His first year here was pretty good and I thought for sure we could have found our guy.  Smart, athletic, accurate and a good arm. 

 

His second year suffered because Roman was fired in week 2, and the coaching staff was a train wreck. 

 

Year 3 was another coaching staff, another new  O coordinator and literally no one to throw a ball to. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

59 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

I actually did.   I thought he was a true professional and a team guy.  Always said the right thing and never threw anyone under the bus. 

 

I hope he does really well this year being back with Lynn. 

 

His first year here was pretty good and I thought for sure we could have found our guy.  Smart, athletic, accurate and a good arm. 

 

His second year suffered because Roman was fired in week 2, and the coaching staff was a train wreck. 

 

Year 3 was another coaching staff, another new  O coordinator and literally no one to throw a ball to. 

 

 

It was apparent from the get go he couldn’t play

[TwistofFate]

37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It was apparent from the get go he couldn’t play

Yea, well his pro bowl appearance and stat line called, they disagree. 

 

Highest completion percentage in a game in Bills history,  91.7% in week 9.

 

Franchise record for consecutive passes without an interception, 222, week 13.

 

Franchise rushing record with over 500+ on the ground. 

 

Completed 63.7% of his passes for over 3000 yards, 20tds to 6ints, 568 rush yards, and it was his first year on the team and the first year as an NFL starter. 

 

His advanced metrics were also through the roof. 

 

If you consider that "apparent" he couldn't play, I really can't take any Qb evaluation you make seriously moving forward. 

 

Sky was the limit after his first campaign. 

[BigBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Motorin' said:

That's a whole lot of energy and words to try to prove you're right.

 

It has got to suck for you to be a Bills fan right now knowing that you have the statistical proof that your team's QB will fail to live up to expectations. 

 

I personally can't wait to watch the Bills play next year, and I'm really excited to see Allen's growth in year 3. Go Bills! 

 

 

 

No it's called facts you conveniently ignore.

 

He's not proving, he's showing facts and then arguing from facts.

 

You have nada

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

No it's called facts you conveniently ignore.

 

He's not proving, he's showing facts and then arguing from facts.

 

You have nada

Oh ok then. Thanks for that assute observation. Josh Allen's 30% improvement in key metrics from year 1 to year 2 is "nada" and irrelevant. Who's ignoring what now? He had to write an entire dissertation to discount his improvement.

 

Talk to me again at the end of year 3. Until then I could less what your opinion of the future holds. Have a good one. 

[thebandit27]

There’s a strange aura in this thread...

 

...it’s like an apparition of a former special teams ace is in here...

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Josh will be a franchise QB for us completing on average 58-60% of his passes. That was my prediction before last season. So far he is right on track for that. With the other skills he brings to the game he doesn't have to be a 63-65% completion QB for the team to have success. If he can be a 61-63% completion QB he'll probably be wearing a yellow jacket one day. 

[Motorin']

10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Me neither.  Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen.  I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to.  When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more.  I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

Fair enough. And it is true, as you show, that the rules are more favorable to QB's in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's, just like it was more favorable in the 2000's than than was in the 90's.

 

Here's what I don't understand, if the rules make it more favorable for QB success now than in past decades, and there are numerous examples of QB's of the past having horrendous first seasons who went on to improve and become franchise QB's, why would that be less likely now? Wouldn't more favorable rules applied to hitting the QB and WR's mean that there's more for growth? And why do you discount evidence of past QB's with terrible early years going on to become franchise QB's because it was harder to play the position then?

 

Certainly human nature hasn't changed in the last 20 years. People still have the ability to grow. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Motorin'

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/22/2020 at 8:24 AM, Billl said:

If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out.  (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.)

 

It is 2018 data which makes it pointless in trying to predict Allen's future. 

 

Let's take the most raw 1st round QB to come out of college in about 10 years or more and pin all his future on what he does in his rookie year with a terrible supporting cast? Terrible idea. Allen made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. He's not likely to make as huge a percentage  leap from year 2 to 3 but even a modest jumps in percentage will have him putting up some really good numbers for a third year QB that was again, the most raw 1st round QB coming out of college in a long time.

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It is 2018 data which makes it pointless in trying to predict Allen's future. 

 

Let's take the most raw 1st round QB to come out of college in about 10 years or more and pin all his future on what he does in his rookie year with a terrible supporting cast? Terrible idea. Allen made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. He's not likely to make as huge a percentage  leap from year 2 to 3 but even a modest jumps in percentage will have him putting up some really good numbers for a third year QB that was again, the most raw 1st round QB coming out of college in a long time.

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

[Billl]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

His middle school coaching set him back decades.

[GoBills808]

If Bills fans want to talk ***** about the QB amongst each other I sort of get it but doing it w a Chiefs fan is weak 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

 

Ahem. This guy was so raw he didn't know what a football was.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

His middle school coaching set him back decades.

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Yeah but what do you know about it?

[Bangarang]

37 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Why so serious?

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Why so serious?

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, Motorin' said:

Fair enough. And it is true, as you show, that the rules are more favorable to QB's in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's, just like it was more favorable in the 2000's than than was in the 90's.

 

Here's what I don't understand, if the rules make it more favorable for QB success now than in past decades, and there are numerous examples of QB's of the past having horrendous first seasons who went on to improve and become franchise QB's, why would that be less likely now? Wouldn't more favorable rules applied to hitting the QB and WR's mean that there's more for growth? And why do you discount evidence of past QB's with terrible early years going on to become franchise QB's because it was harder to play the position then?

 

Certainly human nature hasn't changed in the last 20 years. People still have the ability to grow. 

I'm using data sets from this era, 10 years.  I'm comparing him to every Qb's first two years since 2010.  In that span, this "golden era" there isn't one Qb who is a franchise guy who's numbers are comparable to Allen first 2 years.  They are either back ups, journeymen or completely out of the league.

 

I'm not saying Allen can't or won't, I'm saying the data is saying if he does, he's a statistical anomaly, not the norm.  If I were to make a bet based on what the data says, I'd bet against him, and I have with members on this board.  Betting against someone doesn't mean you are rooting against them or wish for them to fail, it simply means you don't believe they can based on what you know.

 

I think year 3 is crucial for Allen.  If he doesn't catapult himself into the middle of the pack of NFL Qbs this year, at minimum, I do not think they pick up his 5th year option.  That is a tall task to ask, but I think that is the kind of jump that is realistically expected of him.  His improvements from his rookie year are noticeable, but in the grand scheme of things his ultimate competition is against his peers where his improvements, when  weighed against them, is at best, minimal.  He is still ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple major categories.  Development of Qbs in this Era is completely different.  You shouldn't be waiting 5-6 years for Qb's to become moderately successful, not with the ways these rules are designed.  You got 3 years, TOPS.  Realistically, inside of 2 years you know what you have and year 3 is confirmation of your assessment.

 

I really do like Allen.  I watch everything I can on him.  I would love for him to be the franchise guy for years and lead us out of Qb purgatory, because he is Buffalo DNA.  The infamous 4th and 1 says everything it needs to about him.  But....frankly, im just not that optimistic about him anymore until he goes out there and proves it.

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Again, his college coach was Carson Wentz’s. How many coaches have produced two top 10 picks qbs in history, much less than 5 years apart?

9 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

And that’s some of us aren’t as sold on Allen.  It’s the nfl and it’s never been easier to play qb.  We are trying to make a guy be better in the nfl than he was at Wyoming.  It’s insanely risky and it’s not like we have brilliant offensive minds coaching him here.

Edited May 23, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer.

 

ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket.

 

Can be inconsistent in his approach


Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline

Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm


Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him


Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice


Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet

 

Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail


Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls

 

Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft.

 

can make some truly special throws, but his ability to improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he's a good NFL starter or just another big, strong-armed guy.

 

Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet


Takes too many chances with low percentage throws


Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball


Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short


Will baby the deep throws at times


Field-reading is spotty

Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally

Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers


Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket


Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

 

 

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

 

 

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

Pat Mahomes is the one who threw 41 TDs and 10 INTs and 5052 yards his junior/final season.  Allen is the one who threw 16 TDs and 6 INTs with 1812 yards his junior/final season.

 

If you take Pat’s three most prolific games his final season (Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Baylor) he threw for 1860 yards, 16 TDs, and 3 INTs.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Billl

[TwistofFate]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

 

 

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

 

 

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

Now post their college stats and college accomplishments next to their scouting report. 

 

At that point it becomes a no brainer on which Qb has more potential and which has a bigger bust potential. 

 

Apples to Apples friend. 

 

Mahomes looks the part of his college stats, as does Allen. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by TwistofFate

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

 

Correct. Using that list is not a good use of statistics. Past results in a vacuum do not predict future results - i.e. the gambler's fallacy. It's like if you had a friend who always drove way over the speed limit, drove drunk, and never wore his seatbelt. You call him out on it and he says "but the chance of dying in a car wreck is only 1 in 100,000." Sure, for everyone else. But for him the probability is different because of the other factors.

 

Allen is a QB who has gotten better at every stage of his career, from college to year 1 in the NFL to year 2 in the NFL. And I for one thought he played better in the 2nd half of year 2 than in the first half. A consistent upwards trajectory. You can't use completely different QBs in completely different situations to predict where he will end up.

 

The funny thing about this discussion is I think every single person involved has the same idea - Allen was better in year 2 than in year 1, and he needs to continue to get better to be a franchise QB. If anyone disagrees with either of those two points they're on a different planet. So how about we just wait and see what happens? Anyone who claims to know how likely it is that he'll become a franchise QB is lying. No amount of data can make that conclusion.

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

Pat Mahomes is the one who threw 41 TDs and 10 INTs and 5052 yards his junior/final season.  Allen is the one who threw 16 TDs and 6 INTs with 1812 yards his junior/final season.

 

No one cares about college stats in scouting a player for the NFL. I could find and post countless examples of this not mattering, but do you really need me to?

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one cares about college stats in scouting a player for the NFL. I could find and post countless examples of this not mattering, but do you really need me to?

I like Allen, have since before we drafted him. On the Mahomes scouting report it ignores Pat’s ability to change arm angles and flip the ball almost anywhere without having his feet set. That was there in college, scouts are just so set on their expectations of mechanics and how it is supposed to look that they sometimes miss the obvious.

 

FWIW, before the draft some of us had a similar discussion on Allen’s tape. He showed the ability to make anticipatory throws without having his base set. 

 

Allen’s going to be good, probably not a Mahomes but the doubters will soon be put to bed. 

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

Not all QBs get to throw rocks on a farm though. Only Allen can claim the kind of mental and physical toughness it takes to do that. That’s gotta be more valuable than any fancy schmancy passing academy.