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elijah

Dion Dawkins or Matt Milano

Dion Dawkins or Matt Milano?  

256 members have voted

  1. 1. If you can only retain 1 next off-season, which player?

    • Dion Dawkins
      199
    • Matt Milano
      57


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I wrote an article on Cover 1 regarding the Bills future cap space (will link if the Mods approve? I'm not sure but it may be against the rules here as spam)  and it shows a little bit of a tight cap moving forward after this off-season.  Essentially, after re-signing Tre White, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and accounting for rookies on the cap, the Bills are looking at roughly $6M of cap space in 2021 -- and that $6M is assuming that Milano takes a little bit of a discount.  That's tight on the cap and while there are ways to get around it and create more cap, it's worth at least being aware of the possibility that one of Dawkins or Milano might not be retained next off-season.  

 

I'm curious as to which one Bills fans would rather retain if it does come down to choosing between them. 

 

As of right now, the market values listed on Spotrac are 4yrs/$57.5M for Dawkins and 4 years/$52M for Milano.  Being a solid LT on the open market I think that Dawkins may command more, and I also think that Milano may command a little less.  I'm not sure myself which one I would rather have and am curious how the site feels about it.  

 

On one hand, I personally wouldn't want to pay an average offensive tackle an elite rate in Dawkins.  On the other hand, keeping the offensive line together will be crucial for the offense and Josh Allen while paying Milano $11M+ per year next to Edmunds who might make $15M+ per year once he gets paid is a lot for 2 linebackers. 

 

I did all of this work in Excel and attached the sheets here in case anyone wanted to play with it themselves. 

 

What say you? 

 

bills future cap space.xlsx

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Dion, a solid LT is hard to come bye

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LT > LB. 

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Posted (edited)

OTs almost universally are harder to find and have longer careers than LBs.

 

That said, there will be no problems with the cap that would preclude signing both guys...

 

 

Edited by Lurker
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All else being equal, you go with the LT.

 

Then add in Dion's personality and how that will translate to being a leader in the locker room the longer he is here. Seems to have the work ethic too.

 

No knocks on Milano personally, but he does have an injury or two already.

 

Dion.

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Just now, Lurker said:

OTs almost universally are harder to find and have longer careers than LBs.

 

That said, there will be no problems with the cap that would preculde signing both guys...

I’m worried about Dion’s contract because whatever it is I feel it’ll be overpaid, but there’s some positions that you’ll have to overpay for and LT ultimately is one of those. 

 

And if you have a second, I would take a look at the excel sheet or even just glance at Spotrac yourself.  The rebuild is just about over and the cap is going to start tightening up in the coming years, while there’s ways to make it work, Beane can’t afford to be as loose with the salary as he’s been moving forward.  Players need to get paid (White, Milano, Dawkins, Edmunds, Allen, Feliciano, etc.) and I know people here aren’t too big on looking forward, but you’ve got to have long term plans so you can re-sign these guys when the time comes. Part of those long-term plans might be to let a Milano walk do you have the cap to re-sign an Edmunds in the future. 

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I love Milano but the choice is easy. It’s a Value Over Replacement analysis. You can barely find OT’s that are good backups in FA. Decent LBers are always available.

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5 minutes ago, elijah said:

 

I’m worried about Dion’s contract because whatever it is I feel it’ll be overpaid, but there’s some positions that you’ll have to overpay for and LT ultimately is one of those. 

 

And if you have a second, I would take a look at the excel sheet or even just glance at Spotrac yourself.  The rebuild is just about over and the cap is going to start tightening up in the coming years, while there’s ways to make it work, Beane can’t afford to be as loose with the salary as he’s been moving forward.  Players need to get paid (White, Milano, Dawkins, Edmunds, Allen, Feliciano, etc.) and I know people here aren’t too big on looking forward, but you’ve got to have long term plans so you can re-sign these guys when the time comes. Part of those long-term plans might be to let a Milano walk do you have the cap to re-sign an Edmunds in the future. 

 

If we could get Dion for 4/$57.5M ($14.375M avg), I dont think that's overpaying much even for a mid-tier LT. Especially in another year or two. If anything, I'd like to see if we couldnt add another year and do 5/$73.75M. A starting LT at >$15M in 2023-2025 would be a steal.

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not really debatable imo

 

Dawkins plays a way more important position and he's better at it than Milano is at LB

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Mcd is defense. He can take water and turn it into wine. I feel much better with this staff finding a lb to fill that loss. Let's keep the o- line together.

 

I think we will find ways to keep them all though..

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I love Milano because he’s a bc guy, but I think you take Dawkins every time. Milano just strikes me as easier to replace position wise. 

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I’ve always said that Milano is the odd man out...just can’t justify paying him that much when Edmunds will command more...just draft another OLB...

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36 minutes ago, elijah said:

I wrote an article on Cover 1 regarding the Bills future cap space (will link if the Mods approve? I'm not sure but it may be against the rules here as spam)  and it shows a little bit of a tight cap moving forward after this off-season.  Essentially, after re-signing Tre White, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and accounting for rookies on the cap, the Bills are looking at roughly $6M of cap space in 2021 -- and that $6M is assuming that Milano takes a little bit of a discount.  That's tight on the cap and while there are ways to get around it and create more cap, it's worth at least being aware of the possibility that one of Dawkins or Milano might not be retained next off-season.  

 

I'm curious as to which one Bills fans would rather retain if it does come down to choosing between them. 

 

As of right now, the market values listed on Spotrac are 4yrs/$57.5M for Dawkins and 4 years/$52M for Milano.  Being a solid LT on the open market I think that Dawkins may command more, and I also think that Milano may command a little less.  I'm not sure myself which one I would rather have and am curious how the site feels about it.  

 

On one hand, I personally wouldn't want to pay an average offensive tackle an elite rate in Dawkins.  On the other hand, keeping the offensive line together will be crucial for the offense and Josh Allen while paying Milano $11M+ per year next to Edmunds who might make $15M+ per year once he gets paid is a lot for 2 linebackers. 

 

I did all of this work in Excel and attached the sheets here in case anyone wanted to play with it themselves. 

 

What say you? 

 

bills future cap space.xlsx 49.57 kB · 3 downloads

good point about paying 2 LBs, Edmunds is a must and ttwo LBs at 25M per season is very steep that alone makes the decision for me

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38 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

not really debatable imo

 

Dawkins plays a way more important position and he's better at it than Milano is at LB

Not a huge Milano fan. Too small and struggles sometimes in tackling. Watching him bounce off Watson made me sick. Give me Dawkins every day. 

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Watching him bounce off Watson made me sick.

 

 

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, that was a freak play. We would have won that game if that would have broke any other way. Blech.

 

I agree with the general thought process above, however.

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Im with the consensus here...Dawkins.  I love Milano, but at the end of the day we need to protect Allen more than anything and he's a pretty good LT who I think has his best days ahead of him now with the OL being rebuilt last year and again added to this year.  

 

Hopefully we can keep both, but I think its a no brainer if its a choice between the two.  Beane is a wizard, so I am optimistic he can find a way to retain both.

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Did Matt Milano actually vote  himself 5 times in this poll?!?!?!?

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I realize it is the structure of the question, but they are going to keep both.  Betcha.  It is not an either or, both are part of McBeane's early core.  There are lots of others that could make room if needed, but I doubt it will be needed.

 

 

Also, it seems people are presuming the same money.  What if Dawkins is $18.5 million and Milano is $11 million?  All the comments on LT being a "premium position" are of course right on, but filling it will come at a premium price.  Question should be who is a better value, not who is more valuable! 

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Like your work. Think Dion will cost more than you expect. But if it is a choice between Dawkins and Milano it has to be Dawkins. 

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