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Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3


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I am a Josh Allen fan.  I believe that he has the physical gifts to be a generational quarterback.  I also am aware of his weaknesses.

 

Now that Josh has one of the best trio starting wide receivers in the league, what does he have to do to show that he is the Bills franchise quarterback?

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I don't think it's necessary to parse this, myself.

 

I'd say something like ... improve significantly and improve more as the season goes along. Be among the top half of all starters in 2020 and hopefully even a bit higher than that.

Edited by Thurman#1
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A better job putting up points. If Singletary is the player we hope, if JA is the player we hope, adding Diggs, Brown, and Beasley should get us into or very close to the top 10 in scoring 25ish points per game (up from 19). I think asking for about 230-240 yards through the air per game is reasonable, right in the Cousins, Fitz range. I am not going to jump into QBR, 300 yard games, or completion percentage. If he can throw for about 235 per game, and we can score one more touchdown per game, the rest of the numbers will follow.

 

Just for perspective, my ask isn't crazy in regards to rankings. 20th in yards per game and 12th in points per game. It is a low bar, but I think that is all the output this offense needs to put the Bills firmly in the conversation as a top 10 team. 

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17 minutes ago, Mango said:

A better job putting up points. If Singletary is the player we hope, if JA is the player we hope, adding Diggs, Brown, and Beasley should get us into or very close to the top 10 in scoring 25ish points per game (up from 19). I think asking for about 230-240 yards through the air per game is reasonable, right in the Cousins, Fitz range. I am not going to jump into QBR, 300 yard games, or completion percentage. If he can throw for about 235 per game, and we can score one more touchdown per game, the rest of the numbers will follow.

 

Just for perspective, my ask isn't crazy in regards to rankings. 20th in yards per game and 12th in points per game. It is a low bar, but I think that is all the output this offense needs to put the Bills firmly in the conversation as a top 10 team. 

 

We were tied for a top 8 team last year.  

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17 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

We were tied for a top 8 team last year.  

 

A few things here: 
1. There were some just criticisms of this team last year that left them our of firmly being considered a top 10 team. Soft schedule, ability to put points on the board consistently, can the defense keep up with a top offense. 

 

2. 10 other teams pick after the Bills this year. So it is 11th. They are picking 11th because (seen above) The offense had a number of misfires in the 2nd half where they couldn't put points on the board and the defense could not stop a high powered Houston offense in the second half. 

 

3. This one is more philosophical, but I really don't put a ton (although some) stock in the idea "Top 10" in the NFL somehow means you are elite. There are only 32 teams. You are in the top 1/3rd, which is good but there is a lot of variance. What if you were a top 10 sales rep at your company? Sounds great, but the difference between being a top 10 rep at Johnson and Johnson where they have 1000's of reps is much different than being top 10 at your local car dealership where maybe there are 30-40. I get it, these guy are already in the 99th percentile at what they do in their sport. But they aren't competing at those levels anymore.

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

That we shouldn't draft a new QB next year to avoid paying him $30+ mil a year. 

lmao @ the idea of drafting a new QB next year

 

there are maybe 10 people who think that'd be a good idea and they're all on this messageboard

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Just now, GoBills808 said:

lmao @ the idea of drafting a new QB next year

 

there are maybe 10 people who think that'd be a good idea and they're all on this messageboard

 

If Josh is bottom 5 in most passing categories again do you stand pat at QB?

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

If Josh is bottom 5 in most passing categories again do you stand pat at QB?

Dont care.   Win baby.  

 

If he does what it takes to get us 10 to 12 wins and into the playoffs I could care less about stats.  Matt ryan and matt Stafford have nice stats.  Hows that working out for then. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

If Josh is bottom 5 in most passing categories again do you stand pat at QB?

You mean once I think for like 3 seconds about how he wouldn't have been 'bottom 5 in most passing categories' if his receivers had dropped his passes at just an average NFL rate? Yeah pretty easy

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

If Josh is bottom 5 in most passing categories again do you stand pat at QB?

That is a tough question.  I hate to give up on him.  For me it depends on if he has showing improvement on other areas of his game.  IE: decision making, long through accuracy, and eliminating the panic plays where is turns the ball over when trying to do too much.

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3 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Some people are still questioning whether josh is our qb of the future.  They think that this year is the make it or break it season.

 

 


He’s already made it.    2nd year Qb who made the playoffs.    Let down by Brown, Duke, and Knox in wc game 

Edited by Teddy KGB
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8 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I am a Josh Allen fan.  I believe that he has the physical gifts to be a generational quarterback.  I also am aware of his weaknesses.

 

Now that Josh has one of the best trio starting wide receivers in the league, what does he have to do to show that he is the Bills franchise quarterback?

process faster

not lose his mechanics when they're needed most

know the routes and throw to spots, stop relying on your arm to get it there

throw the receivers open

stop fumbling

Edited by Cripple Creek
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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

You mean once I think for like 3 seconds about how he wouldn't have been 'bottom 5 in most passing categories' if his receivers had dropped his passes at just an average NFL rate? Yeah pretty easy

 

Would be nice if this sentiment was actually based on reality. 

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2 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Some people are still questioning whether josh is our qb of the future.  They think that this year is the make it or break it season.

 

 

It most definitely is.  If it were your money would you be ready to pony up 35-40m/season based on what you've seen to this point?

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

You mean once I think for like 3 seconds about how he wouldn't have been 'bottom 5 in most passing categories' if his receivers had dropped his passes at just an average NFL rate? Yeah pretty easy

Do you think that some of the drops are due to the velocity of his passes? Maybe he needs to develop a softer touch on short to medium route in certain situations.

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5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That we shouldn't draft a new QB next year to avoid paying him $30+ mil a year. 

 

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

lmao @ the idea of drafting a new QB next year

 

there are maybe 10 people who think that'd be a good idea and they're all on this messageboard

 

I don't get the problem here. It is how I play Madden. Draft a guy every few years. Flip Flop them on the depth chart here and there as starters. Keeps their stats down, but they still get better, it keeps their cost pretty low when I re-sign them as early as possible. After resigning I put up some huge numbers and trade them away for a haul of picks. Then, rinse and repeat!

 

Are you saying this won't work in the NFL?  

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Josh must show improved deep ball completion ability . He must run a more efficient offense with better weapons and give Dabol the confidence to open it up in the 2nd half of games.  I'm confident that he will benefit from the 2nd year O-line improved cohesion and the receiver quality. The guy will lead us to the playoffs, but he's got to win a game in postseason. 

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1 minute ago, longtimebillsfan said:

That is a tough question.  I hate to give up on him.  For me it depends on if he has showing improvement on other areas of his game.  IE: decision making, long through accuracy, and eliminating the panic plays where is turns the ball over when trying to do too much.

 

We have a year to figure it out which is good. I think he needs to improve a lot.  

 

At his current level, I don't think he warrants the $30 mil/year he'll likely ask for.

 

Recent history has shown that paying non elite QBs has major effects on that team's ability to win football games after the new contract kicks in. 

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1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

 

I don't get the problem here. It is how I play Madden. Draft a guy every few years. Flip Flop them on the depth chart here and there as starters. Keeps their stats down, but they still get better, it keeps their cost pretty low when I re-sign them as early as possible. After resigning I put up some huge numbers and trade them away for a haul of picks. Then, rinse and repeat!

 

Are you saying this won't work in the NFL?  

 

I think QB could become e the new RB of the NFL.

 

Draft a guy, keep him on his rookie deal and then trade him for picks and draft another one. 

 

Recent history shows it's very risky to pay guys who aren't truly elite. 

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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

We have a year to figure it out which is good. I think he needs to improve a lot.  

 

At his current level, I don't think he warrants the $30 mil/year he'll likely ask for.

 

Recent history has shown that paying non elite QBs has major effects on that team's ability to win football games after the new contract kicks in. 

That is true.  That is what makes this such a stressful season in 2020.  Do we have a 5th year option with Allen?

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think QB could become e the new RB of the NFL.

 

Draft a guy, keep him on his rookie deal and then trade him for picks and draft another one. 

 

Recent history shows it's very risky to pay guys who aren't truly elite. 

That is a good point.  The only thing is it is much more difficult to find a quality quarterback than it is a quality running back.

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3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think QB could become e the new RB of the NFL.

 

Draft a guy, keep him on his rookie deal and then trade him for picks and draft another one. 

 

Recent history shows it's very risky to pay guys who aren't truly elite. 

 

Soooo - if this is your new model, why would a team trade for the QB you're kicking to the curb?

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29 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

The offense has to get out of the teens when it comes to points per game.

 

But importantly Allen just needs to start making it happen when it needs to happen.  But that is just the standard all top QBs are held to.  So it’s a fair ask.

Make what happen?  Bring his team back to win games?  You realize that he already does that as well as anyone in the league right?

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Just now, longtimebillsfan said:

That is a good point.  The only thing is it is much more difficult to find a quality quarterback than it is a quality running back.

 

It's very hard to find an elite QB. Recently it hasn't been particularly difficult to find a base level starter. 

 

I don't see much difference between the 11th best guy and the 25th best guy in the NFL. I think at that point it mostly boils down to the supporting cast around them. 

 

If we invest heavily in our supporting cast, I think it's reasonable to expect another first round QB to be able to come in here and have some sort of success. 

 

If we invest big dollars in a QB who can't carry a team once other positions have been stripped down due to that contract, I think you can get into trouble long term. 

 

Just my two cents. 

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