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Breakdown of WR Prospect Metrics (as well as who we've scouted/met with)


DCOrange

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Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies

 

And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing

 

Essentially...

 

1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc.

 

2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position.

 

3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc.

 

Edited by DCOrange
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2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies

 

And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing

 

Essentially...

 

1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc.

 

2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position.

 

3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc.

 

Many thanks DC.  This is a great reference tool as the off-season and draft discussions progress.  Much appreciated.

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3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies

 

And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing

 

Essentially...

 

1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc.

 

2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position.

 

3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc.

 

 

Thanks DC Orange, good stuff.  From disappointment expressed at the Sr Bowl I think Beane has serious interest in Edwards and Aiyuk.

 

While there, this caught my attention:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/27/21156126/wr-nobody-is-talking-about

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30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Without stating the obvious, the Bills have been all over the WR class. They’ve put a ton of resources into this group. I’m thinking that they take 2.

I would be extremely disappointed if we do not take two.

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Has there ever been an NCAA player with potentially elite route running skills who's been a bust in the NFL?  That's a legitimate question to all of you who are far more in the know about the college game and the draft than I am.  

 

IMO, that's a metric that's rock solid.  You can never have enough WRs who commit to becoming elite route runners.  In a league where everyone is fast and strong, that's how you truly get open.  

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1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. 

Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty.

 

What’s his playing speed look like though?    I think we all know guys can play faster or slower than their speed in pajamas.  Josh Allen would be Exhibit A.  Unofficially at Wyo he was said to have run a 4.6 40.  4.75 at the combine, possibly because he was focused on other aspects of preparation.

 

44 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I would be extremely disappointed if we do not take two.

 

Yeah, but when?

 

Beane seems to be one of the less predictable GMs to the mock draft pundits.

 

I just hope we don’t draft a DB in the 1st or 2nd because about 1/3 of the regulars on this board will need medical intervention if we do - especially if it’s a DII guy.

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26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, but when?

 

Beane seems to be one of the less predictable GMs to the mock draft pundits.

 

I just hope we don’t draft a DB in the 1st or 2nd because about 1/3 of the regulars on this board will need medical intervention if we do - especially if it’s a DII guy.

IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still):

 

  

Draft.JPG

This assumes we've signed/traded for a WR that is capable of starting (even if it's just someone like Devin Funchess or Geronimo Allison or something like that) and that we've either brought Shaq back or signed a replacement for him so that we aren't relying on Alton as a starter from Day 1.

Edited by DCOrange
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5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies

 

And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing

 

Essentially...

 

1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc.

 

2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position.

 

3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc.

 

Really appreciate your work.  Well done!

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1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still):

 

  

Draft.JPG

 

Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1.  Doesn’t have to be a WR there.  Edge.  OL.   But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”.

 

I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round.

 

However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out.

 

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1.  Doesn’t have to be a WR there.  Edge.  OL.   But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”.

 

I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round.

 

However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out.

 

If not Dugger, there's Delpit, Davis, Winfield, possibly McKinney if he makes it that far. #22 is a good spot for a safety, but I think it's pretty clear Buffalo likes Dugger a lot. He has some developing to do, but Buffalo is the perfect place for that with Frazier/McD coaching him and Hyde/Poyer ahead of him on the depth chart and Dugger offers a combination of skills none of the other safeties do.

 

I don't know what to make of Biadasz draft stock; I remember he was thought of as possibly the best IOL in the draft coming into the year. Seems like this is perceived as a really weak class for IOL and he's stumbled with Cesar Ruiz establishing himself as the #1 guy.

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4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

If not Dugger, there's Delpit, Davis, Winfield, possibly McKinney if he makes it that far. #22 is a good spot for a safety, but I think it's pretty clear Buffalo likes Dugger a lot. He has some developing to do, but Buffalo is the perfect place for that with Frazier/McD coaching him and Hyde/Poyer ahead of him on the depth chart and Dugger offers a combination of skills none of the other safeties do.

 

I don't know what to make of Biadasz draft stock; I remember he was thought of as possibly the best IOL in the draft coming into the year. Seems like this is perceived as a really weak class for IOL and he's stumbled with Cesar Ruiz establishing himself as the #1 guy.

 

You know, I hear BPA, but at some point, you got to build a team.  We got some pretty big needs on both sides of the line.

 

I think it’s a pretty tough sell that the BPA at #22 is gonna be a safety.

 

However, in case you are correct that the Bills will draft one of 5 or 6 safeties in preference to any great OL or Edge or LB or WR who might be available, I shall consult my fellow moderators.  We shall stock the Mod Bunker in case we have to make a 3-month Strategic Retreat from the inevitable Board Mayhem that would understandably occur.

 

Let me just say, I hope you’re wrong.

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You know, I hear BPA, but at some point, you got to build a team.  We got some pretty big needs on both sides of the line.

 

I think it’s a pretty tough sell that the BPA at #22 is gonna be a safety.

 

However, in case you are correct that the Bills will draft one of 5 or 6 safeties in preference to any great OL or Edge or LB or WR who might be available, I shall consult my fellow moderators.  We shall stock the Mod Bunker in case we have to make a 3-month Strategic Retreat from the inevitable Board Mayhem that would understandably occur.

 

Let me just say, I hope you’re wrong.

I think safety is a pretty decent need; just not necessarily for this upcoming season. But either Poyer or Hyde will be gone soon and this is a good spot to get their replacement. Bonus points with Dugger because you can use him in other spots to fill in some gaps too.

 

It'll depend on what's available at #22; I don't really expect there to be an OLineman worth taking (I assume Beane wants to keep Ford at OT despite what he's said in the media and as mentioned before, it's a weak class for guards). That basically leaves WR, Edge, and CB as the relatively pressing needs. We can get the same quality WR in the 2nd as we do at #22 and we'll likely somewhat address it in free agency anyways. I think we'll address at least one of CB/edge in free agency if not both and don't necessarily think the corners and edge guys are worth the pick personally; certainly think you can argue for the safeties being on par if not better prospects than the options we'll likely have at corner and edge.

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2 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. 

Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty.


does that mean Jefferson can’t get open, or that he is always open? 


maybe he didn’t hear the whistle? 

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


does that mean Jefferson can’t get open, or that he is always open? 


maybe he didn’t hear the whistle? 

To be fair, the contested catch rates are generally small sample size since offenses are much more spread in college. For Jefferson, he caught 12 of 13 contested passes.

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46 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still):

 

  

Draft.JPG

This assumes we've signed/traded for a WR that is capable of starting (even if it's just someone like Devin Funchess or Geronimo Allison or something like that) and that we've either brought Shaq back or signed a replacement for him so that we aren't relying on Alton as a starter from Day 1.

I'm a big fan of Mimms, and Badazz.  Mimms caught my eye a few weeks back. Like the majority of us, I was doing some armchair GM/YouTube scouting, and besides the consensus top 2 (lamb,Jeudy), the 2 that popped off the screen for me was Mimms, and Ruggs. I also like Jefferson. I like Mimms, because we can potentially draft a top OT, or DE with or 1st pick, and get someone like Mimms or Jefferson in the 2nd.  Mimms just looks like a specimen. He's not just big, or fast, he's both, and can also play the position.

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1.  Doesn’t have to be a WR there.  Edge.  OL.   But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”.

 

I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round.

 

However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out.

 


this is where I am too. It would be hard to rationalize taking any safety or taking a D2 player in the first round. But a D2 safety in the first round? 

 

 

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3 hours ago, dpberr said:

Has there ever been an NCAA player with potentially elite route running skills who's been a bust in the NFL?  That's a legitimate question to all of you who are far more in the know about the college game and the draft than I am.  

 

IMO, that's a metric that's rock solid.  You can never have enough WRs who commit to becoming elite route runners.  In a league where everyone is fast and strong, that's how you truly get open.  

I'm no expert, but I would imagine if you are developing a "raw" QB, it's best to take the safe bet in the reliability of good route runners than to focus on niche aspects of the game like oh this guy is fast and can chase down deep balls or oh this guy is tall and is good at jump balls/end zone fades.  

 

Both Brown and Beasley have helped Allen in this regard and under contract long enough to hold the line until Allen breaks out.  This is an exciting FA/draft for me.

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2 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I'm a big fan of Mimms, and Badazz.  Mimms caught my eye a few weeks back. Like the majority of us, I was doing some armchair GM/YouTube scouting, and besides the consensus top 2 (lamb,Jeudy), the 2 that popped off the screen for me was Mimms, and Ruggs. I also like Jefferson. I like Mimms, because we can potentially draft a top OT, or DE with or 1st pick, and get someone like Mimms or Jefferson in the 2nd.  Mimms just looks like a specimen. He's not just big, or fast, he's both, and can also play the position.

 

Agree completely. Ruggs and Mims are my 2 favorite wrs. I think they're the 2 best fits for the Bills. 

 

Despite his size, Ruggs had a great catch radius. This is what Allen, who struggles with accuracy at times, needs. Mims has jump ball skills and also makes tough catches. We all saw how Allen tried getting Duke the ball. Mims is what we all wish Duke could be. 

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6 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. 

Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty.

I think Cephus is good. The 40 time could hurt him in this deep class but he’s solid. Very physical and great hands, played in a run oriented offense with a meh Qb.

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  • 2 weeks later...

One player i would really like to see the Bills get & he fits exactly what they need in the passing game is Chase Claypool . 

 

The more i read about hm the more i like what i read he is a big bodied WR at 6' 4" tall & has good speed at 4.42 it was said to he made a big jump by what he did at the combine i think he would be a really good get in the draft .

 

Also seeing that the other big name guys Lamb, Ruggs, & Higgins might be gone by the time the Bills pick he could be there for at 22 & i like his size a lot more than the others, Higgins has the size but i have read where Claypool is more versatile .

 

If he's not there J.Jefferson would be another good get not sure exactly where he is ranked as far as the draft goes & he is a little shorter than Claypool but his speed is comparable & he did well at the combine .

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On 2/28/2020 at 7:10 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Without stating the obvious, the Bills have been all over the WR class. They’ve put a ton of resources into this group. I’m thinking that they take 2.

I hope you’re right.


I also hope they don’t trade up for one of the “elite” three.  In a historically deep and talented class like this one, and especially at WR, I think it’s exceedingly difficult to accurately predict who the best NFL players are going to be.  If you’re going to trade up, do it to get back into the second or third to get someone like Pitts or Claypool after you get your guy at 22.

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48 minutes ago, T master said:

One player i would really like to see the Bills get & he fits exactly what they need in the passing game is Chase Claypool . 

 

The more i read about hm the more i like what i read he is a big bodied WR at 6' 4" tall & has good speed at 4.42 it was said to he made a big jump by what he did at the combine i think he would be a really good get in the draft .

 

Also seeing that the other big name guys Lamb, Ruggs, & Higgins might be gone by the time the Bills pick he could be there for at 22 & i like his size a lot more than the others, Higgins has the size but i have read where Claypool is more versatile .

 

If he's not there J.Jefferson would be another good get not sure exactly where he is ranked as far as the draft goes & he is a little shorter than Claypool but his speed is comparable & he did well at the combine .


A few things here...

 

The only thing that Claypool’s combine tells me is that his long speed isn’t going to prevent him from playing in the league.

 

I can’t fathom how he suddenly becomes a 1st round pick. He’s big and tough, but he has very little short-area quickness and doesn’t create much separation.

 

To take him in the first would be implying that there’s a sizable difference between him and a guy like Denzel Mims or DPJ, and I really don’t see it.

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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


A few things here...

 

The only thing that Claypool’s combine tells me is that his long speed isn’t going to prevent him from playing in the league.

 

I can’t fathom how he suddenly becomes a 1st round pick. He’s big and tough, but he has very little short-area quickness and doesn’t create much separation.

 

To take him in the first would be implying that there’s a sizable difference between him and a guy like Denzel Mims or DPJ, and I really don’t see it.

I like Mims. 

It feels like conscious is that Lamb and Jeudy are the two best WR’s with Ruggs being right there as well.

It is going to be fascinating to see, when does the next group go? I feel like we will see ‘pockets’ of wide receivers picked over the first three rounds. 3-4 taken over a ten pick span.

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Boy, based on that third tab, Isaiah Hodgins has everything the Bills want as a mid-round pick--except he's slow (4.6 40).   

 

Still, he might be worth a shot with one of the extra 5th round picks as he apparently never drops a ball and is a great red zone target...

 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/isaiah-hodgins/

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alshon-jeffery/   (comparable)

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Boy, based on that third tab, Isaiah Hodgins has everything the Bills want as a mid-round pick--except he's slow (4.6 40).   

 

Still, he might be worth a shot with one of the extra 5th round picks as he apparently never drops a ball and is a great red zone target...

 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/isaiah-hodgins/

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alshon-jeffery/   (comparable)

 

 

 


Hodgins is my man! I have him as a R3 pick

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On 2/28/2020 at 12:33 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


does that mean Jefferson can’t get open, or that he is always open? 


maybe he didn’t hear the whistle? 

Jefferson is considered an excellent route runner with good quickness and speed.  He usually gets good separation. 

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2 hours ago, Lurker said:

Boy, based on that third tab, Isaiah Hodgins has everything the Bills want as a mid-round pick--except he's slow (4.6 40).   

 

Still, he might be worth a shot with one of the extra 5th round picks as he apparently never drops a ball and is a great red zone target...

 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/isaiah-hodgins/

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alshon-jeffery/   (comparable)

 

 

 

Great hands. Not sure he’ll be able to get separation against anybody in the NFL though. He plays the game very slow. Track record for his type isn’t good in the NFL. Still worth a shot at some point on Day 3 though if the first WR we take is an explosive type. 

Edited by DCOrange
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3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I like Mims. 

It feels like conscious is that Lamb and Jeudy are the two best WR’s with Ruggs being right there as well.

It is going to be fascinating to see, when does the next group go? I feel like we will see ‘pockets’ of wide receivers picked over the first three rounds. 3-4 taken over a ten pick span.


I think the top 3 are gone by 17. Unless Philly moves up, I suspect that group 2 starts with them, or possibly Buffalo at 22. Either way, I think group 2 starts to go in the 20’s and consists of Jefferson, Aiyuk, and one of Reagor/Higgins/Hamler, with the others going in the top 10 of round 2. I think there’s a noticeable drop off from the top 8 to group 3 where you get Laviska, Mims, Claypool, etc.

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9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


I think the top 3 are gone by 17. Unless Philly moves up, I suspect that group 2 starts with them, or possibly Buffalo at 22. Either way, I think group 2 starts to go in the 20’s and consists of Jefferson, Aiyuk, and one of Reagor/Higgins/Hamler, with the others going in the top 10 of round 2. I think there’s a noticeable drop off from the top 8 to group 3 where you get Laviska, Mims, Claypool, etc.

How much more do you like Reagor/Higgins/Hamler over Mims?

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3 hours ago, Lurker said:

Boy, based on that third tab, Isaiah Hodgins has everything the Bills want as a mid-round pick--except he's slow (4.6 40).   

 

Still, he might be worth a shot with one of the extra 5th round picks as he apparently never drops a ball and is a great red zone target...

 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/isaiah-hodgins/

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alshon-jeffery/   (comparable)

 

 

 

He really is. My brother in law is a beaver alum so i watch them when I can.  Great size and hands and seems to be a great kid according to the fam.  Would love to get him as our 2nd WR in the draft or only WR if we can pull off a trade for a top WR

Edited by NewEra
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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


I don’t really do number grades or anything like that, but I have all 3 graded as high 2’s and Mims as a mid-to-late 2.

I need to look into the height and weight for the second tier guys. 
Mins just seems like the right size and speed. What’s his biggest knock besides playing at Baylor verse an SEC school?

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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4 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I need to look into the height and weight for the guys. 
Mins just seems like the right size and speed. What’s his biggest knock besides playing at Baylor verse an SEC school?


Drop rate is among the worst in his class over the past 2 years. Doesn’t really know how to run routes yet. Inconsistent beating press coverage. 
 

There’s a ton of potential with him but he’s probably not ready to start for us next year. 

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Admitted Penn State homer here. 

 

I love KJ Hamler.  But honestly i dont see him with a major role in the NFL.  If you need a small speedy WR, then maybe he is your guy.  Not sure i'd really want to put  him in the slot.  His ceiling is probably similar to Lee Evans IMO.  Not the worst thing in the world...but I just dont see him making it.

 

 

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6 hours ago, NewEra said:

He really is. My brother in law is a beaver alum so i watch them when I can.  Great size and hands and seems to be a great kid according to the fam.  Would love to get him as our 2nd WR in the draft or only WR if we can pull off a trade for a top WR

 

If you didn't know he was running with a piano on his back, you'd be likey to say "...Wow!   That's the best highlight package I've seen from any WR this year!"

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