The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[B-Man]

16 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

We have a president concerned more about ratings and popularity than the health and economic future of our country.  

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That trump has provided his state everything that he's requested.

 

He's committed seppuku.

 

 

?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

You were watching CNN?

 

No, I saw it linked online, with the video clip in question.

 

[US Egg]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That trump has provided his state everything that he's requested.

 

He's committed seppuku.

 

.....and no politician in California yet is calling for an investigation into this treasonous Governor ?

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

...

 

that Fla comes in as low as it is does is astonishing.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Foxx

[fansince88]

2 hours ago, Golden Goat said:

 

Correct. Moon was hammered early on. Then folks started seeing what happened in Western countries and South Korea was an afterthought. I agree, though, that they were the most prepared due to their wonderful neighbors and the daily threats they face. And, as you point out, their experience with MERS.

Here's what's idiotic to me: The same people who blast Trump refuse to blame Merkel. Why? Simple math shows that the number of cases in Germany (per capita) is close to that of the United States. If Germany had 330 million people, they'd have more than 500,000 cases today. Let's look at some of its neighbors, using the same math:

• Spain would have 1.2 million cases 
• Italy would have 850,000 cases
• France would have 658,000 cases
• The UK would have 450,000 cases

Xi is the mother****** who is to blame for this. Singling out any other world leader is ridiculous.

I predict in the distant future we find out he released the Chinese virus to stop the protesting.

[Foxx]

21 minutes ago, Magox said:

You were watching CNN?

[Troll Toll]

41 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Data shows the New York outbreak came from Europe, not China. The virus was silently spreading here since February.

Trump sorta closed flights from China in early February. Now dimwit can’t understand the virus got here from Europe.

 

If Trump had acted in January, this would have been avoided!
 

New York coronavirus outbreak originated in Europe, studies show

 

Taiwan closed all their airports on 12/31/19.  As soon as they knew about the virus in China. Look how Taiwan has dealt with covid.  

 

America, the greatest nation in the world, is not being wipeout by war but by a virus because we have zero national leadership.
 

We have a president concerned more about ratings and popularity than the health and economic future of our country.  

 

Get us all tested 

He put a travel ban on Europe too! That was also met with the racism/xenophobia rhetoric. Where did Europe get the Coronavirus from? Are you trying to argue that China got the Coronavirus from Europe? Are you saying we shouldn’t have a travel ban on China because no countries can get the Coronavirus from China? 
 

The only sense that Trump could be blamed is in acknowledging that China used the Coronavirus as retaliation for the tariffs and trade policy changes that Trump fought for. I for one don’t think that justifies wielding a biological weapon, but Democrats would likely back the CCP like they back MS-13.

[IDBillzFan]

46 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Data shows the New York outbreak came from Europe, not China. The virus was silently spreading here since February.

 

 

 

 

So you're saying that the entire nation of Covid cases and deaths came from Patient Zero in NY?
 

And the virus spread from NY through the rest of the country?

 

Because that's pretty much what you're saying. 

 

Did patient zero go to St. Patrick's Day celebrations with the rest of the city after DeBlazio urged them to? Or was Trump supposed to warn that person to  stay home.

 

Meanwhile, China thanks you for letting them off the hook. Extra fortune cookie for you. 

 

 

[BillStime]

1 minute ago, Troll Toll said:

 Democrats would likely back the CCP like they back MS-13.

 

You make Rush, Hannity and all the rest proud...

[SirAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

that Fla comes in as low as it is does is astonishing.

Florida’s numbers are low. I wonder how much that might have to do with fewer large groups congregating indoors. People move to Florida to be outdoors. As bad as a crowded beach is, the NY subway is far worse. Northerners spend so much time traveling outside of the home to engage in indoor activities. People in Florida had spent much of March outdoors. Aside from shopping, many large events are held outdoors in Florida. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by SirAndrew

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

[SirAndrew]

1 minute ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

Does anyone actually believe China’s official number though? I know I don’t. 

[4merper4mer]

45 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That trump has provided his state everything that he's requested.

 

He's committed seppuku.

 

That stupid number game?  I hate that thing.  Do a crossword orca math problem.  Not both at the same time.  Dumb.

[3rdnlng]

2 hours ago, TH3 said:

He wasn’t being optimistic....he was being selfish

 

 

South Korea....Plus I thought we were the best

He was probably hoarding all the fish tank cleaner for him and his family.

[Jon in Pasadena]

23 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

crossword orca math

Is that part of Common Core?  Sounds real useful.

[3rdnlng]

4 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

  

 

I've been blessed with a voice that can sound quite intimidating (behind a closed door). A few years in radio and doing voice work helped with the projection. I can channel TSW's favorite baritone when needed: 

 

 

 

I gotta say bs to that. You probably had this tape all qued up just in case.

 

 

[Magox]

A really good day for the country.  A substantial drop in deaths from yesterday.    Approximately about 450 less than the previous day.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Foxx]

55 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

Florida’s numbers are low. I wonder how much that might have to do with fewer large groups congregating indoors. People move to Florida to be outdoors. As bad as a crowded beach is, the NY subway is far worse. Northerners spend so much time traveling outside of the home to engage in indoor activities. People in Florida had spent much of March outdoors. Aside from shopping, many large events are held outdoors in Florida. 

food for thought, no doubt. too much unknown at this point to make any educated reasonable deductions really.

 

 

47 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

That stupid number game?  I hate that thing.  Do a crossword orca math problem.  Not both at the same time.  Dumb.

accept math!

Edited April 13, 2020 by Foxx

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

Florida’s numbers are low. I wonder how much that might have to do with fewer large groups congregating indoors. People move to Florida to be outdoors. As bad as a crowded beach is, the NY subway is far worse. Northerners spend so much time traveling outside of the home to engage in indoor activities. People in Florida had spent much of March outdoors. Aside from shopping, many large events are held outdoors in Florida. 

 

Florida has cases in line with other places and even ahead of them from where they were a few weeks ago. They are not projected to peak for 3 more weeks while other states NY, NJ, PA) in the NE are peaking now. I think it's a little too early to say it is out of the woods yet. 

25 minutes ago, Magox said:

A really good day for the country.  A substantial drop in deaths from yesterday.    Approximately about 450 less than the previous day.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

I hope so but Spain and Italy didn't drop precipitously and in fact are running a little lower than their highs but sat for a long time within 20% of its peak deaths. It might just be a holiday and things are getting undercounted. It's really hard to look at a single day and feel too confident. Still better to be down than up. 

 

 

(Spain also big drop today)

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Florida has cases in line with other places and even ahead of them from where they were a few weeks ago. They are not projected to peak for 3 more weeks while other states NY, NJ, PA) in the NE are peaking now. I think it's a little too early to say it is out of the woods yet. 

 

I hope so but Spain and Italy didn't drop precipitously and in fact are running a little lower than their highs but sat for a long time at their peak deaths. It might just be a holiday and things are getting undercounted. It's really hard to look at a single day and feel too confident. Still better to be down than up. 

 

I know what you mean. It's picking up in small rural town I live in NY. Was only 12 cases couple days ago now up to 28 for the county.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Foxx]

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

I know what you mean. It's picking up in small rural town I live in NY. Was only 12 cases couple days ago now up to 28 for the county.

 

Anecdotally, my brother says his covid-only floor in Buffalo keeps getting much busier each day. He is working a ton.

[SirAndrew]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Florida has cases in line with other places and even ahead of them from where they were a few weeks ago. They are not projected to peak for 3 more weeks while other states NY, NJ, PA) in the NE are peaking now. I think it's a little too early to say it is out of the woods yet. 

 

I hope so but Spain and Italy didn't drop precipitously and in fact are running a little lower than their highs but sat for a long time at their peak deaths. It might just be a holiday and things are getting undercounted. It's really hard to look at a single day and feel too confident. Still better to be down than up. 

You’re definitely correct about Florida. It may be too early to tell. I’m just throwing out my random theory that I could see them doing a little better than some of northern states. Florida has an outdoor lifestyle, and nothing that compares to the density of NYC or Boston, I could see them faring a little better. People in NYC love getting out and socializing. That’s what draws so many to that city. Unfortunately, in the time of a pandemic that becomes a hurdle to overcome. NYC has millions of people attending functions on a daily basis, all jammed into crowded rooms indoors. 

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, SirAndrew said:

You’re definitely correct about Florida. It may be too early to tell. I’m just throwing out my random theory that I could see them doing a little better than some of northern states. Florida has an outdoor lifestyle, and nothing that compares to the density of NYC or Boston, I could see them faring a little better. People in NYC love getting out and socializing. That’s what draws so many to that city. Unfortunately, in the time of a pandemic that becomes a hurdle to overcome. NYC has millions of people attending functions on a daily basis, all jammed into crowded rooms indoors. 

 

Nothing will rival NYC in the US. That's clear at this point. But I'm not sure how Florida will stack up against states like PA, where PA is peaking now and FL is still to peak in 3 weeks, and currently they have about the same case count. Case count is a dubious number but if it's equally dubious in both states, then it's at least the same error in both. I hope it gets spared.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

Agree with this Fox. Face everything and Rise going to do.

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Agree with this Fox. Face everything and Rise going to do.

[B-Man]

 

 

NEWS: NYU scientists: Largest U.S. study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest factor in New York’s hospitalizations. 

 

“Among other things, the presence of obesity in the study points to a potentially important role of heightened inflammation in patients, a phenomenon that has been a topic of much speculation in numerous studies of the disease.

 

Petrilli and colleagues at the Grossman School, and doctors at the NYU Langone Health center, studied the electronic patient records of 4,103 individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 in the New York City healthcare system between March 1st and April 2nd.”

 

[Gene Frenkle]

47 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

Man, you crazy!

[Gene Frenkle]

Coronavirus: Fauci says US 'could have saved lives' with earlier action

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52264860

 

When asked about a New York Times report that Dr Fauci and other officials had suggested aggressive mitigation towards the end of February, Dr Fauci said health officials could only make recommendations from a "pure health standpoint".

 

"Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes, it's not. But it is what it is, we are where we are right now."

 

Dr Fauci, who is leading the US response to coronavirus, added that "no one is going to deny" that logically, earlier mitigation could have saved lives.

 

But he said "what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated".

[John in Jax]

Just throwing this out there......if you take out NY, NJ, Conn, and Massachusetts, the numbers in ALL of the other states seem to be on a par with an average flu year.

[unbillievable]

Just now, John in Jax said:

Just throwing this out there......if you take out NY, NJ, Conn, and Massachusetts, the numbers in ALL of the other states seem to be on a par with an average flu year.

 

I'm surprised no one has mentioned that the US is actually net positive for total deaths, if you count that every other cause is down.

[3rdnlng]

Remember, FLA shipped their spring breakers and NO shipped their Mardi Gras partiers back to other states. 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said:

Remember, FLA shipped their spring breakers and NO shipped their Mardi Gras partiers back to other states. 

 

More like let them leave.  Neither state/city wanted them to stay.

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

More like let them leave.  Neither state/city wanted them to stay.

Stated better than I did.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

The Math Behind Social Distancing

As we wait for scientists and healthcare professionals to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal.

Social distancing, defined as measures taken to reduce physical contact, is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease like COVID-19. That’s because these infections spread when people cough, sneeze, or touch surfaces on which the virus resides.

To help us grasp the impact these measures can actually have, today’s infographic illustrates how a reduction in social exposure can theoretically contain the spread of infection.

Theoretical Potential

The calculations used to create today’s infographic come from Signer Laboratory, a stem cell research lab located in the Moores Cancer Center at the University of California San Diego.

Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.

Scenario	5 Day Period	30 Day Period
No social distancing practiced	1 person infects 2.5* others	406 people infected as a result
50% reduction in social exposure	1 person infects 1.25* others	15 people infected as a result
75% reduction in social exposure	1 person infects 0.625* others	2.5 people infected as a result

*For estimations only. It is not possible to infect only a fraction of another person.

To arrive at the figures reported above, Robert A.J. Signer, Ph.D., and his team made a number of key assumptions.

First, they estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 to be 2.5, a figure supported by recent research. This means that, on average, an infected individual will spread the disease to 2.5 other people.

Next, they assumed that an infected individual will unknowingly spread COVID-19 over the median five day incubation period. After this period, the individual will begin to develop symptoms, immediately self quarantine, and no longer pose a threat.

Finally, they assumed a direct linear correlation between social interactions and R0. This means that when an infected person reduces their physical contact with others by 50%, they also spread the disease by an amount 50% less.

 

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-math-behind-social-distancing/

 

Lots more great info in article.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

10 hours ago, BillStime said:

I’m pretty sure Trump absolutely destroying our pandemic infrastructure had nothing to do with Trumps half assed response. 
 

I have news Republican Party - 21,400 Americans are dead. It is widely reported that there were warning and this was largely avoidable. 
 

You knew. You were briefed. You used that information to sell your stocks. 

 

Don’t think you will not he held accountable.

 

And you let it continue!

 

ps: How many Benghazi hearings on four unfortunate deaths? Just like Russia; this will haunt Trump and the GOPigs endlessly. 

 

I remember this episode!!  1938, W-ENNNNNNNNN-B-C radio. 
 

 

[meazza]

https://www.mediaite.com/donald-trump/trump-retweets-firefauci-post-in-response-to-faucis-claim-earlier-mitigation-wouldve-saved-lives/

 

Put the phone down.

[Gene Frenkle]

10 minutes ago, meazza said:

https://www.mediaite.com/donald-trump/trump-retweets-firefauci-post-in-response-to-faucis-claim-earlier-mitigation-wouldve-saved-lives/

 

Put the phone down.

 

Please don't fire Fauci. Please?

[meazza]

Just now, Gene Frenkle said:

 

Please don't fire Fauci. Please?

 

If he does, he's lost all credibility. 

 

But some here will argue that he's part of the deep state.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Coronavirus: Fauci says US 'could have saved lives' with earlier action

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52264860

 

When asked about a New York Times report that Dr Fauci and other officials had suggested aggressive mitigation towards the end of February, Dr Fauci said health officials could only make recommendations from a "pure health standpoint".

 

"Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes, it's not. But it is what it is, we are where we are right now."

 

Dr Fauci, who is leading the US response to coronavirus, added that "no one is going to deny" that logically, earlier mitigation could have saved lives.

 

But he said "what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated".

This seems like common sense.  In fact, I’d think if we applied social distancing techniques, shuttered people in place and shut down the economy with regularity we would have less deaths by the flu, car accident, and line drives to the skull at baseball diamond.