The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[fansince88]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

If we lost the battle, we’d all be at work. 
 

Distancing quells this outbreak. Tracing and testing can keep bigger waves from coming. 

Because this is more contagious, requires much more care, and is more deadly than the flu. 

Once again. I was replying to the chart that shows otherwise.

[SirAndrew]

9 minutes ago, shoshin said:

If we lost the battle, we’d all be at work. 
 

Distancing quells this outbreak. Tracing and testing can keep bigger waves from coming. 

Because this is more contagious, requires much more care, and is more deadly than the flu. 

Distancing helps, I completely agree. I just believe it’s too prevalent for contact tracing to work. When we trace someone’s contacts, do we quarantine them all ? Quarantining every contact is impossible at this point. Also, who did the person testing positive get the virus from? Lastly, we have no idea how many are asymptotic, so trace all my contacts, but the asymptomatic person who gave me the virus is still passing it around. Contact tracing works with a very rare virus, or if you immediately catch it entering the country. Contact tracing is almost worthless when a virus has entered every community. Keep in mind, this is not an expert opinion, but just my belief based on what I’m seeing. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

Distancing helps, I completely agree. I just believe it’s too prevalent for contact tracing to work. When we trace someone’s contacts, do we quarantine them all ? Quarantining every contact is impossible at this point. Also, who did the person testing positive get the virus from? Lastly, we have no idea how many are asymptotic, so trace all my contacts, but the asymptomatic person who gave me the virus is still passing it around. Contact tracing works with a very rare virus, or if you immediately catch it entering the country. Contact tracing is almost worthless when a virus has entered every community. Keep in mind, this is not an expert opinion, but just my belief based on what I’m seeing. 

it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. 
 

If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. 
 

Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. 

1 hour ago, fansince88 said:

Once again. I was replying to the chart that shows otherwise.

The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 CASES and deaths (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. 
 

This isn’t the common flu. Comparing it to the flu is pointless. We can also compare it to heart failure deaths (it’s killing more people). 

Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin

[fansince88]

39 minutes ago, shoshin said:

it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. 
 

If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. 
 

Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. 

The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. 
 

This isn’t the common flu. 

LOL. You guys and "this isnt the common flu". NOBODY IS SAYING THAT!!!

[SirAndrew]

57 minutes ago, shoshin said:

it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. 
 

If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. 
 

Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. 

The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. 
 

This isn’t the common flu. 

What countries have made contact tracing work? In nations such as Italy, and the US it’s spun too out of control to do so. If you’re referring to nations such as South Korea and Singapore, you are correct. However, those nations are smaller in size without multiple waves of infections and patient zeros in hundreds of huge cities. They caught it early on when contact tracing was still viable. Contact tracing isn’t practical right now in the United States imo. 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by SirAndrew

[Koko78]

4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This Governor is nuts !

 

Hopefully someone sues the state quickly. What she is pulling is completely unconstitutional.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

 

At the Wal Mart here electronics , garden and the auto service are closed so those workers can stock shelves , keep disinfecting . Maybe they have some workers out sick or small kids at home due to schools closed. (I'm in Lockport,NY) 

 

My wife is the gardener and gets all her seeds online every year.

I’m wondering if the Michigan gov would ban that sort of delivery.  

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

What countries have made contact tracing work? In nations such as Italy, and the US it’s spun too out of control to do so. If you’re referring to nations such as South Korea and Singapore, you are correct. However, those nations are smaller in size without multiple waves of infections and patient zeros in hundreds of huge cities. They caught it early on when contact tracing was still viable. Contact tracing isn’t practical right now in the United States imo. 

 

Tracing only works once you reduce the initial case count. That’s for sure. 

[SirAndrew]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

Tracing only works once you reduce the initial case count. That’s for sure. 

We’re definitely on the same page. Hopefully cases are reduced to the point where contact tracing can be helpful. I just think some people are confused, seemingly believing contact tracing is useful right now. With the possible exception of remote rural areas, there’s no use in contact tracing at this time. I can’t believe how many health departments are still wasting their time doing so. 

[shoshin]

23 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

LOL. You guys and "this isnt the common flu". NOBODY IS SAYING THAT!!!

So are people comparing it to the flu to show how much worse this is?

[B-Man]

 

 

[GG]

6 hours ago, shoshin said:

Those counties travel to NYC so I think it explains it pretty well. 

 

It doesn’t explain the follow-on spread in the counties.  If all that was needed was somebody to catch a virus at work in NYC, bring it home and then spread like wildfire in the suburbs, then this would be repeated all over the country.  But it’s not.

 

This is why the health officials are perplexed, because there’s no discernible pattern about the spread nor the mortality.  Why did Italy, Spain and 10 counties surrounding NYC get hammered with high death rates, but no one else did?  Why did it spread fast in one country, but barely budged in a neighbor?

 

If the theory that first NYC infection came from Europe, why is that mutation so lethal, and why didn’t it spread across more of Europe?  

[Logic]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC

[Koko78]

34 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

I like how the #######s in the full sized SUVs and minivans park in front of those with smaller cars.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Koko78

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC

 

New York times = auto ignore.

 

You should know better.

[GG]

8 hours ago, fansince88 said:

Well, I will have you know that the air quality in NNY where we have had 1 death of 135 cases is much better then the air quality in NYC. I have lived in both environments. It is different. 

 

Then there would be more uniform numbers across all boroughs, but there’s not.  Manhattan is much more dense than the other 4, but its incidents are better.   There are also wide variations within boroughs.

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC

 

Was NYT hitting DiBlasio when he was insisting that St Patrick’s still go on as late as March 11?

[Buffalo_Gal]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

it's just about ready... are you?

 

Apple and Google debut Bluetooth-based contact-tracing platform to combat Covid-19...and end privacy?

Apple and Google have unveiled an app – soon to be built into their mobile operating systems – that will trace users’ contacts to fight Covid-19. They insist it will be ‘opt-in’ and respect privacy, but we’ve heard that before.

 

The tech giants announced they were working together on a Bluetooth-based contact-tracing app on Friday. The platform will debut as an API – a tool programmers can use to integrate the functionality into their own apps – next month, the companies said, and will eventually be built into the iOS and Android operating systems themselves. ...

Well, they tried arm tattoos before, I guess this time they figure using electronics people are dependent upon is more palatable, and the sheep will comply. ?‍♂️

I bet there is a run on faraday bags and cages.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Well, they tried arm tattoos before, I guess this time they figure using electronics people are dependent upon is more palatable, and the sheep will comply. ?‍♂️

I bet there is a run on faraday bags and cages.

 

 

Tell you an anecdotal story. There are some train tracks near our house. Usually maybe three trains go by a week. Lately it's been like 5 a DAY. I'd bet they're FEMA trains. Can't be sure but it's disconcerting.

[shoshin]

37 minutes ago, GG said:

 

It doesn’t explain the follow-on spread in the counties.  If all that was needed was somebody to catch a virus at work in NYC, bring it home and then spread like wildfire in the suburbs, then this would be repeated all over the country.  But it’s not.

 

My theory but based on facts. Think of it more like this. NYC is the hub. Multiple people traveling into the hub are getting it and spreading it to other multiple people in the metro area seeding those burbs. Some people distance and pressure their peers to distance and wear masks etc sooner and have better outcomes. 
 

No place is like NYC in America. It has 12 of the most dense areas in the top 20 in America. Including the top 8 with NYC itself in at #6 with its 8M people. And a population where public transport and general crowding is unparalleled. 
 

It has no American analogy even in Philly, Chicago, Boston, or LA and if those cities shut down before their case counts got as high as NY, then they would have less impact. This appears to be the case. Only Detroit and New Orleans seem to be on any trajectory like NYC.  
 

Quote

 

This is why the health officials are perplexed, because there’s no discernible pattern about the spread nor the mortality.  Why did Italy, Spain and 10 counties surrounding NYC get hammered with high death rates, but no one else did?  Why did it spread fast in one country, but barely budged in a neighbor?

 

The health systems couldn’t keep up good standards of care I’m sure. There’s bed capacity and then there’s actual good care. What happened in Italy in particular was a total swamping of their system. Happened in NYC to a lesser extent. 
 

Quote

 

If the theory that first NYC infection came from Europe, why is that mutation so lethal, and why didn’t it spread across more of Europe?  

 

It did and is so far. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK are getting hammered. Germany is doing well but they have better care and are culturally different, as are the Northern European countries. 
 

Japan and India pop my reasoning though. Japan maybe is culture but that can’t explain 38M people living in Tokyo and the entire country having less than 10 dead a day. And India? They should be getting destroyed. Maybe they are and the data sucks frankly. But if not, that really makes no sense. Korea is another great outlier as we know. 

 

We need to look at all the outliers and figure out why. Smarter minds are at work on this. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin

[Taraka]

ain't this the truth though

[billsfan1959]

34 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

New York times = auto ignore.

 

You should know better.

 

Maybe they can share some more information from additional intelligence reports that don't exist....

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, ~Kostabi~ said:

ain't this the truth though

On the other side of that image you could put needles, hospitals, pharmaceuticals and the like with their cost. It really is amazing. 

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Maybe they can share some more information from additional intelligence reports that don't exist....

The Times has some of the best pure data tracking on Covid in America out there. It’s actually the best for a view of all state and metro data. 
 

You can find better data in your own state by drilling down your local health department but the times compilation of all the states, counties, and cities is excellent and clearly presented. Except for my own state, I use theirs for US data and the Worldometer for world data. 

[GG]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My theory but based on facts. Think of it more like this. NYC is the hub. Multiple people traveling into the hub are getting it and spreading it to other multiple people in the metro area seeding those burbs. Some people distance and pressure their peers to distance and wear masks etc sooner and have better outcomes. 
 

No place is like NYC in America. It has 12 of the most dense areas in the top 20 in America. Including the top 8 with NYC itself in at #6 with its 8M people. And a population where public transport and general crowding is unparalleled. 
 

It has no American analogy even in Philly, Chicago, Boston, or LA and if those cities shut down before their case counts got as high as NY, then they would have less impact. This appears to be the case. Only Detroit and New Orleans seem to be on any trajectory like NYC.  
 

 

The health systems couldn’t keep up good standards of care I’m sure. There’s bed capacity and then there’s actual good care. What happened in Italy in particular was a total swamping of their system. Happened in NYC to a lesser extent. 
 

 

It did and is so far. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK are getting hammered. Germany is doing well but they have better care and are culturally different, as are the Northern European countries. 
 

Japan and India pop my reasoning though. Japan maybe is culture but that can’t explain 38M people living in Tokyo and the entire country having less than 10 dead a day. And India? They should be getting destroyed. Maybe they are and the data sucks frankly. But if not, that really makes no sense. Korea is another great outlier as we know. 

 

We need to look at all the outliers and figure out why. Smarter minds are at work on this. 

 

Suffolk County is not dense at all, yet it had the fastest growing infection rate in the area, and that happened after the March 13 lockdown.  Bergen County isn’t dense.  Why didn’t the spread continue downward in NJ counties beyond immediate NYC commuters?  Why didn’t this happen to the Philly suburbs?  NY is not the only major metro area where people rely on mass transit.

 

Italy has a good health system that got overwhelmed by hospitalizations.  Germany never got overwhelmed because a much smaller proportion of infections needed hospitalization. Why the difference? Why wasn’t neighboring Switzerland overwhelmed?

 

There are still more questions than answers in the randomness of this virus. 

[billsfan1959]

17 minutes ago, shoshin said:

On the other side of that image you could put needles, hospitals, pharmaceuticals and the like with their cost. It really is amazing. 

The Times has some of the best pure data tracking on Covid in America out there. It’s actually the best for a view of all state and metro data. 
 

You can find better data in your own state by drilling down your local health department but the times compilation of all the states, counties, and cities is excellent and clearly presented. Except for my own state, I use theirs for US data and the Worldometer for world data. 

Enjoy. I have no use for the Times.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

New York times = auto ignore.

 

You should know better.

 

He doesn't. He's been running from this place since his take on Russia/Trump turned out to be 100% incorrect. 

(And his take on Russia was 100% wrong because he took sources like the NYT at their word rather than thinking for himself)

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Hello everyone, and I had the opportunity to visit Cassandra at Buffalo Children's today. As mentioned she is off the Ecmo machine and doing most of the work. It will take some time for her to heal. She gets better every day. Prayers and time will help her heal. We don't know yet what virus did this. It was not covid. She was tested a few times for that and all negative. Thank you for all the outreach and we will keep you posted. My best advice to parents is tell your children you love them everyday. You never know what the next day will bring. Easter is a special holiday happening tomorrow. Please cherish and make it the best for your children and yourselves. It will be a hard holiday for us to get through but we will make the best of it. Your outreach has been extremely powerful and it is helping us get through this hard and difficult time so thank you and Happy Easter.

 

Ya looks like not covid. But telling my sister, got to keep her away from this virus. Might agrument with her, she might hate me. After fighting something bad. But glad she is doing better.  Worries me if a nurse or doctor infected or dirty clothes (from working someone else) get her infected. This virus is scary after a person struggling thru something else fighting else. Worries me.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[meazza]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stores here are limiting the amount of people in the store at the same time and ensuring everyone washes their hands before walking in.  I also started wearing a mask to be on the safer side.

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, meazza said:

Stores here are limiting the amount of people in the store at the same time and ensuring everyone washes their hands before walking in.  I also started wearing a mask to be on the safer side.

 

Mask use is important for you to keep other people safe. We should all be doing g it in crowds for a while. 

[shoshin]

Someone yesterday was posting they thought the virus was already spread to 75% of the US population. A claim that cannot be true. 
 

Random testing of 1500 people in Austria and (unsure sample size) in Iceland shows 0.33 and 0.45% positive cases respectively. For those countries, 75% is is about 75% too high. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-study-finds-twice-as-many-infections-in-austria-than-earlier-thought-11586523316

 

Our infection rate in some areas is higher maybe but what we are seeing now is a really small wave of infections, and that’s the danger. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin

[billsfan1959]

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by billsfan1959

[billsfan1959]

Happy Easter! I hope everyone on here, and their families, have a safe and wonderful day.

[TH3]

11 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

New York times = auto ignore.

 

You should know better.

The US has about 30 percent of global cases and recent daily tallies are 35-40 percent of the new cases. 
No...it’s not the testing ...our per capita testing is still very low.

Hard to ignore those numbers look tremendous in any manner.

You should know better....but sick Internet forum burn tho!

 

[SirAndrew]

9 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are very valid economic reason to end the lockdown. The medical claims of that article are complete nonsense. Ending the lockdown right now likely causes more deaths and possibly overburdens the system. It needs to end at some point, but let’s not act as if we’ve solved the problem, and our actions haven’t reduced infections. It does need to end, I just hate to see it end too soon. Articles like that get many of the facts wrong imo. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by SirAndrew

[TPS]

On 4/10/2020 at 8:07 PM, Magox said:

If you are going to go that route then virtually every governor failed as well.  Considering they were all warned by Trumps task force beforehand and hardly any of them took action.

 

———————————————————————————

I blamed some others in my last response to you.  Yes, anyone who allowed large social gatherings deserves blame.  That doesn't absolve trump though.  That's the old "but they did it too" excuse....

 

This is an interesting editorial by the guy who recommended the pandemic czar position on the NSC.  There's a lot in it and he published it Jan 30th.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/now-trump-needs-deep-state-fight-coronavirus/605752/

 

My issue all along is that trump was more concerned about the economy early on than the impact from the virus.  More and more is coming out to support this point.  Navarro’s memo around the same time as the editorial above.  A recent NYT piece about that debate within the admin:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-takeaways.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR0KiZKRBk_vcqWIkcajX_LOO1Nlmy4diaGmecuBIT1J-k6ncJDMjMrcoaM

 

Quote

 

As he prepared to give an Oval Office address on the evening of March 11, Mr. Trump continued to resist calls for social distancing, school closures and other steps that would imperil the economy. Seeking to understand the potential effects on the stock market and the economy, he reached out to prominent investors like Stephen A. Schwarzman, the chief executive of Blackstone Group, a private equity firm.

During an Oval Office meeting, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stressed that the economy would be ravaged by such measures. Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, who had been worried about the virus for weeks, sounded exasperated as he told Mr. Mnuchin that the economy would be destroyed regardless if officials did nothing.  Later, Mr. Trump reflected on that period of debate among his advisers, saying: “Everybody questioned it for a while, not everybody, but a good portion questioned it,” adding: “They said, let’s keep it open. Let’s ride it.”

 

 

Wall Street finally slapped him in the face when the market tanked after the Fed cut rates to zero (and trump was so giddy that night saying wall street would be happy).  He finally started acting presidential in that Monday presser, and I said that in a post here.  Unfortunately, he’s taking it to another extreme, using the daily presser as his campaign events….

 

There is no doubt that the virus was going to hit, and I don’t think many lives could’ve been saved had the virus taken precedent with him March 1^st instead of March 16^th (the real damage was done by the CDC/FDA testing fiasco during February)  However, it is clear to me that he changed after that, and his statements throughout indicate this. 

 

 

[SirAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TPS said:

I blamed some others in my last response to you.  Yes, anyone who allowed large social gatherings deserves blame.  That doesn't absolve trump though.  That's the old "but they did it too" excuse....

 

 

 

This is an interesting editorial by the guy who recommended the pandemic czar position on the NSC.  There's a lot in it and he published it Jan 30th.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/now-trump-needs-deep-state-fight-coronavirus/605752/

 

 

 

My issue all along is that trump was more concerned about the economy early on than the impact from the virus.  More and more is coming out to support this point.  Navarro’s memo around the same time as the editorial above.  A recent NYT piece about that debate within the admin:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-takeaways.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR0KiZKRBk_vcqWIkcajX_LOO1Nlmy4diaGmecuBIT1J-k6ncJDMjMrcoaM

 

 

 

 

 

Wall Street finally slapped him in the face when the market tanked after the Fed cut rates to zero (and trump was so giddy that night saying wall street would be happy).  He finally started acting presidential in that Monday presser, and I said that in a post here.  Unfortunately, he’s taking it to another extreme, using the daily presser as his campaign events….

 

 

 

There is no doubt that the virus was going to hit, and I don’t think many lives could’ve been saved had the virus taken precedent with him March 1^st instead of March 16^th (the real damage was done by the CDC/FDA testing fiasco during February)  However, it is clear to me that he changed after that, and his statements throughout indicate this. 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve always been a non-partisan thinker, as I believe there is right and wrong regardless of party affiliation. Honestly, no one got this right. There are no hero’s in this story, except for the first responders and people working the front lines. China and then much of the Western world failed with an adequate response. No one was prepared, it’s as simple as that. 

[Tiberius]

Religious people getting people sick 

 

 

Quote

 

LAWRENCE, Kan. — The Kansas Supreme Court on Saturday struck down a Republican-led effort to allow the continuation of in-person church services across the state despite the governor's ban on such gatherings to prevent the spread of coronavirus — what has been called the "War over Easter" here — as the virus-related death toll continued to rise.

Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, recently expanded a state stay-at-home order to limit church events to 10 people after state public health officials traced coronavirus outbreaks, and three deaths, to four religious gatherings. Kansas has recorded 1,268 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 55 deaths related to the virus, according to the state's Department of Health and Environment.

Republican lawmakers on the state's legislative council revoked Kelly's order on Wednesday — effectively allowing churches to hold regular services on Easter — saying that the order infringed on religious liberty. Kelly then took the matter to court, calling the Republican action "shockingly irresponsible."

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-kansas-churches-easter/2020/04/11/04257fec-7c25-11ea-9bee-c5bf9d2e3288_story.html

[4merper4mer]

3 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I’ve always been a non-partisan thinker, as I believe there is right and wrong regardless of party affiliation. Honestly, no one got this right. There are no hero’s in this story, except for the first responders and people working the front lines. China and then much of the Western world failed with an adequate response. No one was prepared, it’s as simple as that. 

China had information that they withheld.  Maybe nobody got this right, but some were more wrong than others.  

Edited April 12, 2020 by 4merper4mer

[Azalin]

4 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I’ve always been a non-partisan thinker, as I believe there is right and wrong regardless of party affiliation. Honestly, no one got this right. There are no hero’s in this story, except for the first responders and people working the front lines. China and then much of the Western world failed with an adequate response. No one was prepared, it’s as simple as that. 

 

China didn't just have an inadequate response, they lied to the rest of the world about the scope and severity of the virus and sold ineffective/defective PPE to other countries trying to deal with it. 

[Tiberius]

Trump Was Warned Early and Often: Examining His Halting Response

• President Trump was slow to absorb the scale of the virus’s risk and to act accordingly, focusing instead on controlling the message and protecting gains in the economy.
• Dozens of interviews and a review of records revealed a fuller picture of the extent of Mr. Trump’s halting response.

• • 2293

 

 

Quote

 

WASHINGTON — “Any way you cut it, this is going to be bad,” a senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Dr. Carter Mecher, wrote on the night of Jan. 28, in an email to a group of public health experts scattered around the government and universities. “The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe.”

A week after the first coronavirus case had been identified in the United States, and six long weeks before President Trump finally took aggressive action to confront the danger the nation was facing — a pandemic that is now forecast to take tens of thousands of American lives — Dr. Mecher was urging the upper ranks of the nation’s public health bureaucracy to wake up and prepare for the possibility of far more drastic action.

“You guys made fun of me screaming to close the schools,” he wrote to the group, which called itself “Red Dawn,” an inside joke based on the 1984 movie about a band of Americans trying to save the country after a foreign invasion. “Now I’m screaming, close the colleges and universities.”

His was hardly a lone voice. Throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus and focused on other issues, an array of figures inside his government — from top White House advisers to experts deep in the cabinet departments and intelligence agencies — identified the threat, sounded alarms and made clear the need for aggressive action.

The president, though, was slow to absorb the scale of the risk and to act accordingly, focusing instead on controlling the message, protecting gains in the economy and batting away warnings from senior officials. It was a problem, he said, that had come out of nowhere and could not have been foreseen.

Even after Mr. Trump took his first concrete action at the end of January — limiting travel from China — public health often had to compete with economic and political considerations in internal debates, slowing the path toward belated decisions to seek more money from Congress, obtain necessary supplies, address shortfalls in testing and ultimately move to keep much of the nation at home.