That Net Points Thing, End of Season Edition

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Once again with the net points thing

This time I sorted the table by PF for your viewing pleasure.

It's no surprise that scoring lotsa points is a pretty good predictor of being playoff bound

But there are some anomolies.  Tampa scores lotsa points.  Going home. 

Same with Dallas and the Lambs

 

Then there's Buffalo.  Welook quite unremarkable as far as Net points are concerned, for a playoff team.  Perhaps a tad under-performing on the wins, even.  But Lordy - those PF.  Please, Offense, oil up those cylinders and run on 'em.

Houston stands out as the only playoff team with a negative Net Point differential. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
Fix plot labels

[whatdrought]

Damn Jameis...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Damn Jameis...

 

I know, right? 

We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time

[BillsVet]

The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities.  I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is.  There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept.   

 

Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent.  Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces.  No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back.  His turnovers in NE indicate that.    

 

Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output.  

 

 

[JaCrispy]

I hope we draft another RB at least as good or better than Singletary...

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Damn Jameis...

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

[billsfan1959]

14 teams had a + point differential and 11 made the playoffs. 18 had a - point differential and only one made the playoffs.

 

Buffalo was the only playoff team that was not in the Top 15 in points scored.

 

Of the Top 15 teams in offensive points, 11 made the playoffs. Of the Top 15 teams in defensive points, 10 made the playoffs. There were 10 teams that finished in the Top 15 in both offensive points scored and defensive points allowed. The only one that didn't make the playoffs was Dallas.

 

Overall point differential really is the one stat that is most closely correlated with playoff teams.

Edited January 2, 2020 by billsfan1959

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know, right? 

We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time

 

Tampa actually had a good defense this year. Winston was beyond reckless with the ball and has been since he came in the league. 

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

 

I was just thinking about that yesterday... makes way too much sense, but don’t the colts own his rights? I imagine if it were to happen, it would have to be after the draft if they were to take a QB high. Any other situation and I doubt they’d be willing to trade him. 

[BobChalmers]

Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense.  That is just bizarre in the NFL today.

 

They have 7 on defense.

 

Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now.  Allen remains the only elite athlete.

 

Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense.  Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). 

 

Seahawks have four - all on their OL!

 

Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd.

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

 

Pretty sure the Colts still hold Luck's rights?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

 

I think that ship has sailed.  Captain Andrew Luck has hung up his sidearm.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities.  I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is.  There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept.   

 

Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent.  Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces.  No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back.  His turnovers in NE indicate that.    

 

Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output.  

 

 

 

Those were each against top 5-7 defenses. You think our offense will perform similarly against a bottom 5 defense? 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

9 minutes ago, BobChalmers said:

Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense.  That is just bizarre in the NFL today.

 

They have 7 on defense.

 

Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now.  Allen remains the only elite athlete.

 

Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense.  Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). 

 

Seahawks have four - all on their OL!

 

Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd.

 

Pretty sure the Colts still hold Luck's rights?

 

A players draft status does not necessarily mean they will be elite NFL talent. The texans' secondary is chalk full of first rounders, and they have one of the worst groups in the league.  That said, more talent would be great.  But don't diminish what we do have -- our O-line is top ten in most advanced metrics (I don't know how else you would measure an O-line group), John Brown is a 1000 yard receiver, and Beasley is as good a slot receiver as you will find in the league.  Knox and Singletary are young, but have potential to be top ten at their respective positions (I might be pushing it a bit with Singletary).  

[Rc2catch]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

Not saying Winston is as good as luck of course but I don’t think the Bucs would be any better if he came out of retirement. If he did, the Colts are a way better situation. 
Bucs just cannot run the ball. It’s been years and a ton of different backs but they just can’t run. In the “no defense” division I like to call it everyone can run when they need to but the Bucs. They should keep Winston one more year and just build the heck out of their run game. 

[BuffaloSol]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Once again with the net points thing

This time I sorted the table by PF for your viewing pleasure.

It's no surprise that scoring lotsa points is a pretty good predictor of being playoff bound

But there are some anomolies.  Tampa scores lotsa points.  Going home. 

Same with Dallas and the Lambs

 

Then there's Buffalo.  Welook quite unremarkable as far as Net points are concerned, for a playoff team.  Perhaps a tad under-performing on the wins, even.  But Lordy - those PF.  Please, Offense, oil up those cylinders and run on 'em.

Houston stands out as the only playoff team with a negative Net Point differential. 

Says "Net points thing" then sorts by points for, mildly infuriating.....

[Buffalo Junction]

10 hours ago, BillsVet said:

The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities.  I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is.  There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept.   

 

Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent.  Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces.  No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back.  His turnovers in NE indicate that.    

 

Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output.  

 

 

We’re basically a team without any weak spots. Schemes, preparation, and discipline give this group an edge and will beat all the mistake prone or talent poor teams. Aside from Tre White were lacking on game breaking talent though. An additional 2-3 big playmakers and an improved Josh Allen and this team becomes a perennial super bowl threat. 

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, BobChalmers said:

Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense.  That is just bizarre in the NFL today.

 

They have 7 on defense.

 

Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now.  Allen remains the only elite athlete.

 

Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense.  Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). 

 

Seahawks have four - all on their OL!

 

Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd.

 

Significant debate has ensued about Buffalo's (read McD's) preference for building the defense first.  It's sort of like how a person chooses to spend their money.  How one allocates limited resources will have an effect on something else.  Spending money on repairing your broken vehicle may be necessary, but results in having less to spend on other expenses.  

 

And to take it a step further, positional value plays into this discussion on offense.  A plodding OT drafted in the 2nd round that struggles in pass protection is likely not more valuable than a solid receiving option.  It's why I continue to see McD as a very conventional team builder who tries to make people think he's forward thinker.  I just see a lot of conservative thinking in offensive personnel and game-planning.  

 

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Those were each against top 5-7 defenses. You think our offense will perform similarly against a bottom 5 defense? 

 

Every team is going to play a mix of good, average to mediocre, and plain bad teams.  Buffalo was 1-4 against playoff teams and averaged less than 20 points per.  I cite that because now the league's bottom-feeders and almost all average teams are at home watching television.  I judge the Bills' chances based on their output against better teams.  

 

Philadephia was motivated in October and took it to Buffalo's defense.  And right now that's all it takes to be one and done as opposed to just losing a regular season game.  I sense Buffalo's DL better be ready for a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson.  

 

That said, Houston's defense is among the worst in the playoffs, but get back JJ Watt at an undetermined level.  

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know, right? 

We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time

Actually, FO had TB's defense as the fifth best in the NFL this season: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019. They are a true outlier when it comes to trying to deduce quality based on points allowed. They had to contend with 41 turnovers and a ton of pick sixes! The TB defense scored 6 defensive TDs itself. 

[BillsVet]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28403463/barnwell-guide-2019-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl

 

"How they're worse than you think: While the Bills' offense has generally avoided turnovers, it simply hasn't been good against playoff-caliber competition. In five starts against playoff teams this season, Allen completed just 51.6% of his passes and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. His 72.7 passer rating against those defenses ranked 25th out of the 28 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more against the playoff bracket, and the Bills' offense scored an average of 14 points per game while going 1-4 in those five contests.

You could make the argument that the Bills have taken advantage of what FPI pegs as the league's third-easiest schedule."

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

34 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28403463/barnwell-guide-2019-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl

 

"How they're worse than you think: While the Bills' offense has generally avoided turnovers, it simply hasn't been good against playoff-caliber competition. In five starts against playoff teams this season, Allen completed just 51.6% of his passes and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. His 72.7 passer rating against those defenses ranked 25th out of the 28 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more against the playoff bracket, and the Bills' offense scored an average of 14 points per game while going 1-4 in those five contests.

You could make the argument that the Bills have taken advantage of what FPI pegs as the league's third-easiest schedule."

 

This comment sort of glazes over the meat of what happened in those games. They aren't saying the Bills, as a whole, did bad against playoff caliber teams.  They are saying the Bills offense played poorly against playoff caliber teams.  While that is true, it ignores that the Bills' defense (outside of the Phi game) played exceptional against playoff caliber teams. It also ignores that (again outside of Phi), the Bills were up against the best defenses in the league (Baltimore, NE, Tenn).  This matters because are next game is against Houston, who, unlike the playoff caliber teams we have played, has one of the worst defenses in the league.  A deeper analysis reveals the Bills have a great shot at this game.  After that? We are in trouble. But its the divisional round, every team is really good at the divisional round. 

[BillsVet]

18 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This comment sort of glazes over the meat of what happened in those games. They aren't saying the Bills, as a whole, did bad against playoff caliber teams.  They are saying the Bills offense played poorly against playoff caliber teams.  While that is true, it ignores that the Bills' defense (outside of the Phi game) played exceptional against playoff caliber teams. It also ignores that (again outside of Phi), the Bills were up against the best defenses in the league (Baltimore, NE, Tenn).  This matters because are next game is against Houston, who, unlike the playoff caliber teams we have played, has one of the worst defenses in the league.  A deeper analysis reveals the Bills have a great shot at this game.  After that? We are in trouble. But its the divisional round, every team is really good at the divisional round. 

 

I'm sorry, what?  We're talking about the offense, which for several reasons has been inadequate this season especially against better teams.  We're not talking about the defense, which did limit a largely weak slate of opponents.  

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

I'm sorry, what?  We're talking about the offense, which for several reasons has been inadequate this season especially against better teams.  We're not talking about the defense, which did limit a largely weak slate of opponents.  

 

 

 

Net points is determined by subtracting the points given up from the points scored.  It is basically offense - defense = net points.  Plus, the quote you posted said the Bills team as a whole did poorly in those games. That was and it wasn't true.  The Bills offense did poorly (not the defense).  I added the context that the Bills offense did poorly because those teams had stellar defenses, something Houston does not have. 

 

I'm sort of taken back by your response. Did you not read the OP or the quote you posted? 

[row_33]

14 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Damn Jameis...

 

30/30 man in this day and age

 

a total footballs move there

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by row_33

[BillsVet]

13 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Net points is determined by subtracting the points given up from the points scored.  It is basically offense - defense = net points.  Plus, the quote you posted said the Bills team as a whole did poorly in those games. That was and it wasn't true.  The Bills offense did poorly (not the defense).  I added the context that the Bills offense did poorly because those teams had stellar defenses, something Houston does not have. 

 

I'm sort of taken back by your response. Did you not read the OP or the quote you posted? 

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

 

Because scoring 14 per happened against teams with exceptional defenses, something Houston doesn't have.  Hence my original point - your argument ignores what happened in those games, and instead relies on generalities. 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I was just thinking about that yesterday... makes way too much sense, but don’t the colts own his rights? I imagine if it were to happen, it would have to be after the draft if they were to take a QB high. Any other situation and I doubt they’d be willing to trade him. 

Yeah.  I forgot that they own his rights with two years remaining on his contract.  Luck's still only 30 so if he was willing to go to any team besides the Colts the team would pry have to give up substantial draft capital.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BuffaloSol said:

Says "Net points thing" then sorts by points for, mildly infuriating.....

 

My goodness, some people are easily infuriated.  The chart was net points vs wins

 

Since you ask...

[dubs]

They are there on defense and will get there on offense. Rome wasn’t built in a day and it’s fair to say the whole team is ahead of schedule. 
 

Anyone who thinks this is McDermott or Beane’s end vision for the Offense is insane. This is much more of the early Pats, early Steelers (Ben) approach.  Offense will get there, I expect to see an improvement over the last month on Saturday. More like what we saw against the Cowboys. 

 

 

[BuffaloSol]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My goodness, some people are easily infuriated.  The chart was net points vs wins

 

Since you ask...

lol I was kind of kidding, but thank you.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

We’re basically a team without any weak spots. Schemes, preparation, and discipline give this group an edge and will beat all the mistake prone or talent poor teams. Aside from Tre White were lacking on game breaking talent though. An additional 2-3 big playmakers and an improved Josh Allen and this team becomes a perennial super bowl threat. 

Agreed. I keep seeing the posts flaming PFF because they don't rate Bills players as Pro Bowl worthy. I checked (the free part of PFF!) and the top rated Bills player is Micah Hyde - on their scale he's right around 80, which is in the high end (70-84) of "starter" quality, just below "Pro Bowl" quality (85-89) and well below "Elite" (90+). But here's the thing: other than Jordan Phillips, who's in the 50s (I think PFF hates his free-wheeling/willing to give up position to make an occasional big play style), everyone on defense rates reasonably well. And on offense, there is a weak link: it's the O line, with Spain and Ford grading poorly (and DiMarco too, but that's largely irrelevant as I believe his snap count is way down), but with everyone else again doing reasonably well or better. So it is a "whole is more than the sum of the parts" team without many stellar individual performers. And that's a pretty good place to be when you have money to bring in a real impact player or two next year.

[Bills Analyst]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Something doesn’t look right with your scatter plot.  It appears that the bills are to the right of 5.0 on th axis.  Yet in your table, the bills net points/game is 3.4.  Buffalo is also to th right of Tennessee and GB which have higher points/game than buffalo.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

Luck is never coming back.  His family is more important to him than the NFL.  

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah.  I forgot that they own his rights with two years remaining on his contract.  Luck's still only 30 so if he was willing to go to any team besides the Colts the team would pry have to give up substantial draft capital.

 

He’d easily be worth 2 firsts,  but I could see irsay being pretty pissed if he wanted to play elsewhere...

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed. I keep seeing the posts flaming PFF because they don't rate Bills players as Pro Bowl worthy. I checked (the free part of PFF!) and the top rated Bills player is Micah Hyde - on their scale he's right around 80, which is in the high end (70-84) of "starter" quality, just below "Pro Bowl" quality (85-89) and well below "Elite" (90+). But here's the thing: other than Jordan Phillips, who's in the 50s (I think PFF hates his free-wheeling/willing to give up position to make an occasional big play style), everyone on defense rates reasonably well. And on offense, there is a weak link: it's the O line, with Spain and Ford grading poorly (and DiMarco too, but that's largely irrelevant as I believe his snap count is way down), but with everyone else again doing reasonably well or better. So it is a "whole is more than the sum of the parts" team without many stellar individual performers. And that's a pretty good place to be when you have money to bring in a real impact player or two next year.

I’m not a PFF fan. To me they seem like Randy Marsh on SP creating a metric to make his penis seem average sized. The notable flaws are certainly Phillips, but also Tre White....

 

That said, this team just needs a couple guys to go over the top. I’m not enamored with Spain - He’s not athletic enough to pull and misses on stunts - but I think he may be replaced. Aside from that a top pass rusher and 1-2 playmakers on offense and this team will be in contention. 

[BarleyNY]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that ship has sailed.  Captain Andrew Luck has hung up his sidearm.

I will truly miss Captain Andrew Luck’s Twitter account 

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

that’s actually interesting. I could see that happening. 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

We're talking past each other and I understand your point about offense and defense contributing to point differential.  

 

Yes, it's good Buffalo only allowed 69 points in those games, but it's worse that they scored a mere 71.  

 

It's an offensive driven league and those with an ability to score tend to advance.  Scoring 14 points per and surrendering about the same did not work in the regular season against top opponents.  Why would it in the playoffs?  Because I doubt the HC and OC are all of a sudden going to depart from this strategy.  

 

 

But Allen and the offense could do a little better. The scores were not there but really you could look at just a few plays each game and they would be. Maybe those few plays happen in the playoffs. 

[HardyBoy]

I think it's very important to not forget the number of high wind games the bills played in this year. I know this cuts both ways, but the defense is really good and is pretty consistent in not giving up points in great conditions.

 

I think if the Bills had started the season with the turnover rate they ended the season with, the pf number is a lot higher (the pa number would be lower too, because they set teams up in scoring position when they turned it over).

 

I feel like arguing this point: the Bills offense got significantly better over the course of the season, based largely, but not only, on the turnover numbers, but the insane winds hid that improvement. The other games that weren't windy were against the Pats and Steelers (top 5 defenses). 

Edited January 3, 2020 by HardyBoy

[leonbus23]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes.  My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs.

Wow. Never thought of that. Luck with Godwin, Evans and Perriman would be a force. Arians knows Luck and offense. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, bmacdona said:

Something doesn’t look right with your scatter plot.  It appears that the bills are to the right of 5.0 on th axis.  Yet in your table, the bills net points/game is 3.4.  Buffalo is also to th right of Tennessee and GB which have higher points/game than buffalo.

 

 

Thanks!  Right you are .... I was fussing with the labels trying to get them to straight copy (which they didn't) and the Vikes and Bills got mixed.  Fixed now.  Appreciate the feedback.