Am I right about this: one more Pat’s AFC loss besides our game and the Bills control their own destiny?

[TheFunPolice]

Let's hope NE loses to KC and HOU then if we beat them it might at least cost them the #1 seed and maybe even a bye

 

 

[Foxx]

it is going to be a fun Sunday sitting and watching the results of the Balt/San Fran, NE/Houston, Tenn/Indy and Cleveland/Pitts games.

[wagon127]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Lets just say Bills win out as crazy as that sounds.

Pats* win all games except Bills up to week 17.

Pats* have to play starters and win against Miami.

If not they have a 4-2 Division record and Bills a 5-1.

 

Forget Andy Dalton, Fitzmagic would be a GOD in Buffalo.

LOL

This is what i see happening. Fitzmagic coming through for us one more time in week 17! The Pats dont need to lose to anybody else in this scenario, just lose to the dolphins and the bills.

[416BillsFan]

2 hours ago, klumzyfule66 said:

Pats would have to lose vs Cinci or Miami, in addition to us winning out.

We've already asked so much of him, but can you do us another solid, Andy?

[That's No Moon]

49 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Forget Andy Dalton, Fitzmagic would be a GOD in Buffalo.

LOL

I like that guy. And I think God would be underestimating it.

[Tuco]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGold said:

If Buffalo wins out,

and New England wins out with the exception of losses to Buffalo and Miami,

Buffalo would win the division.

 

No other single loss for the Patriots would give Buffalo the tie breaker advantage, so we must finish a game ahead.

 

ASSUMING BUF WINS OUT--New England needs to lose any two of Hou/KC/Cin.. or, again, just lose to the Dolphins. 

 

 

Source: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

You are right, that's what the playoff machine says. But I think the machine is wrong.

 

If the Bills were to win out they would be 13-3.

 

If The Patriots* were to lose to both Buffalo and Cincinnati, they would also be 13-3.

 

Both teams tied head to head and division record.

 

In common games they would also be tied at 12-2, with Buffalo having lost to Cleveland and Philly, and New England* having lost to Baltimore and Cincy.

 

Then it would go to conference record where Buffalo would win 10-2 to 9-3.

 

Not saying the Pats* will lose to Cincy. I just think the machine is wrong.

[BillsFan692]

4 hours ago, klumzyfule66 said:

Pats would have to lose vs Cinci or Miami, in addition to us winning out.

COME ON FITZMAGIC!

[InTheBuffAllTheTime]

17 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

You are right, that's what the playoff machine says. But I think the machine is wrong.

 

If the Bills were to win out they would be 13-3.

 

If The Patriots* were to lose to both Buffalo and Cincinnati, they would also be 13-3.

 

Both teams tied head to head and division record.

 

In common games they would also be tied at 12-2, with Buffalo having lost to Cleveland and Philly, and New England* having lost to Baltimore and Cincy.

 

Then it would go to conference record where Buffalo would win 10-2 to 9-3.

 

Not saying the Pats* will lose to Cincy. I just think the machine is wrong.

You are correct.

Imagine that...........HUMAN > MACHINE

[ColoradoBills]

39 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

You are right, that's what the playoff machine says. But I think the machine is wrong.

 

If the Bills were to win out they would be 13-3.

 

If The Patriots* were to lose to both Buffalo and Cincinnati, they would also be 13-3.

 

Both teams tied head to head and division record.

 

In common games they would also be tied at 12-2, with Buffalo having lost to Cleveland and Philly, and New England* having lost to Baltimore and Cincy.

 

Then it would go to conference record where Buffalo would win 10-2 to 9-3.

 

Not saying the Pats* will lose to Cincy. I just think the machine is wrong.

 

ESPN machine had errors in it 2 years ago too.

The NYT machine shows you are correct.

Edit:  Click Pats win against MIA from the link I sent.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#hou-ne-13=loss&buf-bal-14=win&ne-kc-14=win&cin-ne-15=win&pit-buf-15=loss&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-nyj-17=win&ne-mia-17=loss&event=champion

Edited November 29, 2019 by ColoradoBills

[formerlyofCtown]

I think that may be the case.

4 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

I believe the tie breaker before conference games is common opponents, which we would lose.

Not sure about that if we beat the Ravens.

29 minutes ago, BillsFan692 said:

COME ON FITZMAGIC!

If they lose to Miami and we win out, it's a wrap.

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

But they won't.

I think you are correct.  It takes a Top 10 D to beat NE.

[egd]

5 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Ran scenarios yesterday.

 

Pats

Wins - Either Houston or Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami

Loses - Eithet Houston or Kansas City, Buffalo

 

Buffalo

Wins out.

 

Both 13-3, it had New England in 1st and Buffalo in 5th.

 

You need to give the reason why. You are taking the easy way out by running scenarios on the computer.

[The Red King]

Hasn't Miami beaten NE once each of the past two seasons?  Improbable is not impossible.

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 hours ago, Fan in San Diego said:

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

 

 

Outstanding.

 

honestly, brother. Tremendous.

[Bob in STL]

Let’s just try to beat Baltimore before we get to carried away with winning the division.  

[billspro]

6 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Ran scenarios yesterday.

 

Pats

Wins - Either Houston or Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami

Loses - Eithet Houston or Kansas City, Buffalo

 

Buffalo

Wins out.

 

Both 13-3, it had New England in 1st and Buffalo in 5th.

 

So bottom line is they would have to lose to Houston, KC, and Us and we would have to win out. Not very likely but there is a very small chance.

[ThurmasThoman]

On 11/29/2019 at 1:40 PM, Tuco said:

 

You are right, that's what the playoff machine says. But I think the machine is wrong.

 

If the Bills were to win out they would be 13-3.

 

If The Patriots* were to lose to both Buffalo and Cincinnati, they would also be 13-3.

 

Both teams tied head to head and division record.

 

In common games they would also be tied at 12-2, with Buffalo having lost to Cleveland and Philly, and New England* having lost to Baltimore and Cincy.

 

Then it would go to conference record where Buffalo would win 10-2 to 9-3.

 

Not saying the Pats* will lose to Cincy. I just think the machine is wrong.

Interesting.
Thanks for doing this math.
To be fair, I did not play around with any teams other than New England and Buf, so if by chance I had Baltimore tied with them as well, the machine may have applied a 3 team tie breaker first?

[1ManRaid]

On 11/29/2019 at 9:34 AM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Ran scenarios yesterday.

 

Pats

Wins - Either Houston or Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami

Loses - Eithet Houston or Kansas City, Buffalo

 

Buffalo

Wins out.

 

Both 13-3, it had New England in 1st and Buffalo in 5th.

So what you're saying is when Cincy shocks the world and gets their only win of the season against NE, we're a lock for the top seed!

[Tuco]

52 minutes ago, JohnnyGold said:

Interesting.
Thanks for doing this math.
To be fair, I did not play around with any teams other than New England and Buf, so if by chance I had Baltimore tied with them as well, the machine may have applied a 3 team tie breaker first?

I don't think that's it but who knows? Division tiebreakers come first since they're the higher seed so a 3 way at 13-3 with NE*, Buff and Balt should be the same thing.

 

Hard to say but it's not hard to believe the machine isn't perfect given all the variables.

 

EDIT: I just tried it through this site and it showed us winning the division with both at 13-3 as long as NE* loses to the Bengals.

 

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=EwRmoy3CW2x1HaKmss0BmF54z7IZJaJl4aaLqFHmmn40x7MIM1pGvyXeo0QqrxLIADJKmSQkwlzYppQA

Edited December 1, 2019 by Tuco

[HOUSE]

This loss to CLEVELAND is really pissing me off now...

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by HOUSE

[MDH]

If the Bills don't win the division I want the Pats to get the 1 seed. As its likely the 3 seed beats the 6 seed (and plays the 2 seed in the division round) I want the Bills’ 2nd round matchup to be at NE. I’d love for us to be the team that ends the Pats dominance.

 

Not to mention, the Pats are a much better matchup for the Bills than the Ravens.

[ganesh]

On 11/29/2019 at 8:05 PM, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Ok, let’s not talk crazy...they could lose to both Texans and Chiefs and we could leap frog them record wise, 13-3 to 12-4.

That works !

[theRalph]

On 11/29/2019 at 9:35 AM, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Ok, let’s not talk crazy...they could lose to both Texans and Chiefs and we could leap frog them record wise, 13-3 to 12-4.

This is right. Tiebreakers won’t work. Bills need to win out. Patsies need to lose to KC and Houston.

[Georgia Bill]

1 hour ago, MDH said:

If the Bills don't win the division I want the Pats to get the 1 seed. As its likely the 3 seed beats the 6 seed (and plays the 2 seed in the division round) I want the Bills’ 2nd round matchup to be at NE. I’d love for us to be the team that ends the Pats dominance.

 

Not to mention, the Pats are a much better matchup for the Bills than the Ravens.

This is the more likely scenario - talk of Bills winning the division is post Cowboys stomping fantasy (barring something unforeseen like a Brady injury).  I do think we'll beat whoever we play in the wild card game.  Then who would we rather play next - Patriots or Ravens?  I'm with you, I'd rather go to NE for that 2nd round game.  

[BBills88]

This is why I think they should seed teams based off record like the (NBA). If you win your division than yes that is an automatic playoff berth. But your seeding should depend on your record . If the Bills & Pat's both ended up 13-3 than they should be the seeded 1 & 2 (let all the calculations determine who is seeded where).  This makes the things so much easier.

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by BBills88

[JAMIEBUF12]

It is at the very least great motivation to have this team play their best football in December.You never know what can happen.Even the 5th seed playing K.C won’t seem so scary if the Bills are peaking right about playoff time.It would be a cinderella story to see the Bills as a wildcard playoff team go in and beat K.C and maybe even knock off the Pats to go to the superbowl.

In reality I would be happy with one playoff win.That would leave this team very hungry next season to take the next step with 10 draft picks,80 million in cap space and a 3rd year quarterback ready for his big leap forward...GO BILLS!!

[CircleTheWagons99]

On 11/29/2019 at 9:42 AM, ProeBills said:

Best possible Bills record is 13-3. Bills need to win-out to take the division unless the Pats have a meltdown (or TB blows knee). Tie-breaker at 13-3 goes to the Pats. (#3 Common Opponents due to Bills losses to PHI and CLE. NE hopeful losses to HOU, KC are not common opponents and they are not plausibly losing to CIN or MIA)

Pats would need to finish no better than 12-4. Best way to those 3 additional losses are against HOU, KC, and BUF.

Hey, fitz beat NE when he was a Bill. He maybe could do it.