Football Really Is About Minimizing Errors and Josh Allen

[Casey D]

Reading Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Allen's play in today's BN drives home that football is about mistakes and missed opportunities.  Allen fumbled and  missed several reads in the second half against the Browns-- mistakes and missed opportunities.  The Bills lost the game, Cleveland did little to win it.

 

That also explains why NE has been so good for two decades.  It's not that they are perfect, but Belichick and Brady don't make mistakes and they take full advantage of the opportunities presented to them.  Doing those two things leads to greatness.

 

All this gives me hope for Allen.  He is a smart guy and seems to work hard.  Right now, he makes too many mistakes ,e.g., fumbling, and passes on too many opportunities, e.g., missed reads, but with his inherent intelligence, I am hopeful that all he needs is continued experience to get there.  It is clear his skill set far exceeds past Buffalo QB failures, e.g. Tyrod, EJ, Losman etc., etc., and his problems seem like things that will get better as he gains experience.  Certainly he deserves a much longer rope, IMO.  I know we live in an instant gratification world, but I think patience is warranted here. Just my opinion

[JoPar_v2]

So how many of the Bills’ 6 wins this year were actually “won” by the Bills and how many were just lost by our opponents? Or does this homer analysis only apply to when the Bills lose a game?

[MAJBobby]

Bills are always the only team in the league that coaches the aggressiveness out of their QB because they are so scared of Turnovers. 
 

 

back to the Tyrod Taylor Offense 

Edited November 12, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Wayne Arnold]

12 minutes ago, Casey D said:

It is clear his skill set far exceeds past Buffalo QB failures, e.g. Tyrod, EJ, Losman etc., etc., and his problems seem like things that will get better as he gains experience.

 

It is?

 

They will?

 

Aside from wishful thinking, what evidence suggests these two things?

[Casey D]

9 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

So how many of the Bills’ 6 wins this year were actually “won” by the Bills and how many were just lost by our opponents? Or does this homer analysis only apply to when the Bills lose a game?

Applies both ways.  Buffalo "won" a couple of games this year where the other teams' kicker was awful.  Cleveland game was chickens coming home to roost.   

[SirAndrew]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Bills are always the only team in the league that coaches the aggressiveness out of their QB because they are so scared of Turnovers. 
 

 

back to the Tyrod Taylor Offense 

I agree, even Brady makes mistakes. Has anyone noticed all his picks in recent big games? That’s because they are playing aggressive, and more often than not he leads them back.

 

Allen was always going to be a Favre type player if he became elite. Obsessing over playing mistake free defensive football (McD), is not the way Allen will ever succeed. He’s a boom or bust player, you take away the bust, you lose the boom. 

[ricojes]

Allen's comments yesterday said it all.  When asked why he isn't hitting the long ball, he says he is afraid of under throwing and getting intercepted.  The coaches are in his head big time, not a good thing.  The Bills got rid of Tyrod Taylor, but they still have a Tyrod Taylor "don't take risks" mentality.

[billsfan_34]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Bills are always the only team in the league that coaches the aggressiveness out of their QB because they are so scared of Turnovers. 
 

 

back to the Tyrod Taylor Offense 

This!!! Take the handcuffs off and let him play! Balance the attack. We freakin ran 13 times to 42 passes wtf? 8 to Devin when he is at 5.2 a clip- Dabs may be the most idiotic OC’s ever.

[Casey D]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

It is?

 

They will?

 

Aside from wishful thinking, what evidence suggests these two things?

Lots of things.  I know you love to be negative, but Allen is far more intelligent-- look at his Wonderlic-- than his predecessors.  He has a great work ethic.  And if you look at his game by game progress he is getting better.  It's not linear, he took a step back against Cleveland, but if you compare his first five games to where he is now, there is substantial progress.  He needs to continue, but kicking him to the curb this early on is foolish   IMO.  

Edited November 12, 2019 by Casey D

[poblano]

No one is talking about those mistakes on defense, this game was full on missed tackles and poor tackling angles(several times by Edmunds).

[PatsFanNH]

18 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Reading Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Allen's play in today's BN drives home that football is about mistakes and missed opportunities.  Allen fumbled and  missed several reads in the second half against the Browns-- mistakes and missed opportunities.  The Bills lost the game, Cleveland did little to win it.

 

That also explains why NE has been so good for two decades.  It's not that they are perfect, but Belichick and Brady don't make mistakes and they take full advantage of the opportunities presented to them.  Doing those two things leads to greatness.

 

All this gives me hope for Allen.  He is a smart guy and seems to work hard.  Right now, he makes too many mistakes ,e.g., fumbling, and passes on too many opportunities, e.g., missed reads, but with his inherent intelligence, I am hopeful that all he needs is continued experience to get there.  It is clear his skill set far exceeds past Buffalo QB failures, e.g. Tyrod, EJ, Losman etc., etc., and his problems seem like things that will get better as he gains experience.  Certainly he deserves a much longer rope, IMO.  I know we live in an instant gratification world, but I think patience is warranted here. Just my opinion

IMO Allen has been both clutch (4th quarter comebacks) as well as the Bills biggest issue.  Before you all start yelling at me let me explain. Allen’s unforced errors have cost the Bills at least one win, probably more this year.  They have also made games that should be an easy win a heck of a lot closer than they should be.

 

This Sunday we will see how things go. I think Flores is a better COACH than McD, any man can get 2 victories with that roster is a dang coaching genius!!  The Bills need play error free and not give them hope otherwise they could be an upset again.

[Casey D]

6 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

This!!! Take the handcuffs off and let him play! Balance the attack. We freakin ran 13 times to 42 passes wtf? 8 to Devin when he is at 5.2 a clip- Dabs may be the most idiotic OC’s ever.

Don't think I agree.  Allen took lots of shots on Sunday when he had open guys for short chain moving completions.  He needs to continue to improve his reads, not just be a gunslinger.

[ricojes]

3 minutes ago, poblano said:

No one is talking about those mistakes on defense, this game was full on missed tackles and poor tackling angles(several times by Edmunds).

The defense was really bad at times, no doubt about it.  But the offense has enough talent to score 20 something points per game.  If the Bills continue to average 16 points or whatever per game, they will lose all games where the D isn't perfect or close to it. 

[Bring it]

While I agree with the point of as Allen goes so does the team it’s not all on him. Execution and a couple more playmakers would help matters! The Pats have been a great team seemingly forever largely because of Brady and Belichick. But the rest of the team executes at a high level consistently! Blocking and tackling the basics of the sport are done pretty much game in and game out at a high level! Something that up to this  point we haven’t achieved. Mcd preaches the process and part of that process is getting there. Hopefully he can keep the belief of his players long enough to achieve that!? But yeah Allen’s continued development is key to how far this team goes!!!

 

Imo we need to make the playoffs if for no other reason but to keep the players invested in this process!! Once Allen matures ,these young players develop and we add a few more playmakers we could be a dominant team for many years!!!

[GG]

Why is it a foregone conclusion that Allen going back to his gunslinging days is a good thing for his development?

 

Wasn't that his biggest downside coming out of Wyoming that everyone said would need to improve?

[PatsFanNH]

15 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I agree, even Brady makes mistakes. Has anyone noticed all his picks in recent big games? That’s because they are playing aggressive, and more often than not he leads them back.

 

Allen was always going to be a Favre type player if he became elite. Obsessing over playing mistake free defensive football (McD), is not the way Allen will ever succeed. He’s a boom or bust player, you take away the bust, you lose the boom. 

Allen is a Gun slinger, also a lot of Brady’s picks lately been because of receivers not catching the ball. (For example the one negated by the KC Offside in the championship game was right in Gronk hands.)

[oldmanfan]

Allen is going to be the QB for years to come IMHO.  His big thing now is reading defenses.  That comes with time, and yes the time for him to develop that skill is growing shorter.

 

Adding more pieces around him will also help.  O line could still use a player or two.  Obviously a really good WR.  

 

Ultimately for young QBs it’s about getting the game to slow down so you make good decisions.  It’s slowing some for Josh but needs to slow down more.

[billsfan_34]

13 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Don't think I agree.  Allen took lots of shots on Sunday when he had open guys for short chain moving completions.  He needs to continue to improve his reads, not just be a gunslinger.

I respect that. I just see it differently. Go Bills 

[Big Turk]

35 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

So how many of the Bills’ 6 wins this year were actually “won” by the Bills and how many were just lost by our opponents? Or does this homer analysis only apply to when the Bills lose a game?

 

Probably a lot of them were lost by their opponents or lost because our defense forces opponents to be very very good execution wise to put up points.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

LOL!  I think I know what you mean, but Punctuation Saves Lives!

Let's Eat Grandma!  Let's Eat, Grandma!

 

Grammatically, your title reads "Football is really about...minimizing Josh Allen"    ? I don't agree, but there's certainly a vocal contingent here who would.

 

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Allen is going to be the QB for years to come IMHO.  His big thing now is reading defenses.  That comes with time, and yes the time for him to develop that skill is growing shorter.

 

Adding more pieces around him will also help.  O line could still use a player or two.  Obviously a really good WR.  

 

Ultimately for young QBs it’s about getting the game to slow down so you make good decisions.  It’s slowing some for Josh but needs to slow down more.

 

You get it.  Allen is a project.  He's developing and taking steps.  He needs more steps.  Either he'll take them, or he won't.

 

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Probably a lot of them were lost by their opponents or lost because our defense forces opponents to be very very good execution wise to put up points.

 

Except, of course, when we escort their RBs down the field and wave as they go by

17 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Don't think I agree.  Allen took lots of shots on Sunday when he had open guys for short chain moving completions.  He needs to continue to improve his reads, not just be a gunslinger.

 

Agreed.

[Artem Lipatov]

19 minutes ago, poblano said:

No one is talking about those mistakes on defense, this game was full on missed tackles and poor tackling angles(several times by Edmunds).

Edmunds made a safety adding pts to our struggling offence. And defence had incredible stand for 6-8 plays inside 2yards line. The only weak link in the defence was Levi Wallace allowed many  complete passes and TDs.

[Big Gun]

26 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

IMO Allen has been both clutch (4th quarter comebacks)

Allen came back twice against the Browns, once to take the lead and once to put the Bills in position to tie the game, the defense and Haushka yakked it away.

 

IMO Allen is going to be real good and is being handcuffed by his coaches right now.

 

8 play goal line stand aside they weren't very good, poor tackling, guys running wide open, couldn't stop Chubb, no pressure on Mayfield, soft, they stunk!

Edited November 12, 2019 by pop gun

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Artem Lipatov said:

Edmunds made a safety adding pts to our struggling offence. And defence had incredible stand for 6-8 plays inside 2yards line. The only weak link in the defence was Levi Wallace allowed many  complete passes and TDs.

actually the Conservative Defense showed up in the final drive. Trey playing off coverage that drive instead of getting up in OBJ face?  Why afraid to get beat deep. So instead three those 12 yard comebacks very easy. 

[Casey D]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

LOL!  I think I know what you mean, but Punctuation Saves Lives!

Let's Eat Grandma!  Let's Eat, Grandma!

 

Grammatically, your title reads "Football is really about...minimizing Josh Allen"    ? I don't agree, but there's certainly a vocal contingent here who would.

 

 

You get it.  Allen is a project.  He's developing and taking steps.  He needs more steps.  Either he'll take them, or he won't.

 

 

Except, of course, when we escort their RBs down the field and wave as they go by

 

Agreed.

Not a punctuation issue, it is being a Luddite and not understanding what I did wrong. I added the "and Allen" after I wrote the post to make the title clearer, and then did not go back and add a comma.  My only defense is living under the pressure of a totalitarian regime.  :-)

Edited November 12, 2019 by Casey D

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, pop gun said:

Allen came back twice against the Browns, once to take the lead and once to put the Bills in position to tie the game and the defense yakked it away.

 

IMO Allen is going to be real good and is being handcuffed by his coaches right now.

 

8 play goal line stand aside they weren't very good, poor tackling, guys running wide open, couldn't stop Chubb, no pressure on Mayfield, soft, the stunk!

Chubb is a very good RB but he fumbles a lot of you punch at the ball out.  They also had Hunt they used rather sparingly.. seems the Bills D has the same issue the Pats D has. Not very good against the run. 

[MAJBobby]

30 minutes ago, ricojes said:

Allen's comments yesterday said it all.  When asked why he isn't hitting the long ball, he says he is afraid of under throwing and getting intercepted.  The coaches are in his head big time, not a good thing.  The Bills got rid of Tyrod Taylor, but they still have a Tyrod Taylor "don't take risks" mentality.

Yep don’t take chances and let your average defense snack. It is very sad this coaching staff is not good. 
 

why does McConservative ALWAYS use Timeouts to make sure Defense in proper position but only McD allows a Huddle on 3rd and 4 with time running down with a TO in hand. Disgusting 

[Big Gun]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

Yep don’t take chances and let your average defense snack. It is very sad this coaching staff is not good. 
 

why does McConservative ALWAYS use Timeouts to make sure Defense in proper position but only McD allows a Huddle on 3rd and 4 with time running down with a TO in hand. Disgusting 

Honestly, I think he was playing for the FG to tie and didn't want to leave the Browns any time on the clock.

[Don Otreply]

25 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

This!!! Take the handcuffs off and let him play! Balance the attack. We freakin ran 13 times to 42 passes wtf? 8 to Devin when he is at 5.2 a clip- Dabs may be the most idiotic OC’s ever.

Agree with this to a large extent, the coaches are squeezing the aggressiveness out of Josh, and the mix of run to pass plays is AFU, I think Daboll has good ideas in the drawing room, but does not apply It on game day, he does not use his weapons correctly, this and a lack of proper execution by the players, and of course the plethora of dropped passes, it’s frustrating as hell to watch at times. Hope the coaches get this figured out asap, otherwise the season is gonna go all to hell in a hurry, fingers crossed ? 

 

Go Billls!!!

[aristocrat]

The margin of error in most games is a td or less right?  The the 3rd and 3 play where allen threw the ball down the sideline should not have even been an option.  Pats throw it to welker across the middle and most of the time it's a first down.  The play before allen and made a great throw to knox who made a great play himself.   One more scoring drive per game and this team has close to a top ten scoring offense.   Problem is they make these key mistakes when the numbers say in those situations to run a more high percentage play.  That's the margin of error the Bills don't realize and Belichick has always realized.  

[Wayne Arnold]

39 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Lots of things.  I know you love to be negative, but Allen is far more intelligent-- look at his Wonderlic-- than his predecessors.  He has a great work ethic.  And if you look at his game by game progress he is getting better.  It's not linear, he took a step back against Cleveland, but if you compare his first five games to where he is now, there is substantial progress.  He needs to continue, but kicking him to the curb this early on is foolish   IMO.  

 

Lamar Jackson’s wonderlic score was 13. Deshaun Watson had the lowest wonderlic score of his draft class. Josh Rosen scored higher than Patrick Mahomes.

 

Wonderlic is completely irrelevant.

 

There is not “substantial progress”. The offense is scoring less now than they did the first five games. Allen is regressing. Which is inexcusable.

[Artem Lipatov]

If Mahomes was under Daboll and not with Andy Reid, he would be afraid to make a mistake and would never become MVP in his 2nd season in the league.

 

[SJDK]

42 minutes ago, ricojes said:

The defense was really bad at times, no doubt about it.  But the offense has enough talent to score 20 something points per game.  If the Bills continue to average 16 points or whatever per game, they will lose all games where the D isn't perfect or close to it. 

This is true but if Haushka makes the two kicks and if we get that face mask call on third down it could have easily been another 9 points

[MAJBobby]

23 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Honestly, I think he was playing for the FG to tie and didn't want to leave the Browns any time on the clock.

he was playing for the Tie. McConservative confirmed it in post game comments. And once they hit the FG target line they went to short safe quick throw plays. 

[GG]

24 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Yep don’t take chances and let your average defense snack. It is very sad this coaching staff is not good. 
 

why does McConservative ALWAYS use Timeouts to make sure Defense in proper position but only McD allows a Huddle on 3rd and 4 with time running down with a TO in hand. Disgusting 

 

On replay it looked like Allen was confused with the playcall and needed to huddle up.  There was no urgency in his walk up to the line either, and when you see J Brown's reaction at the end of the play, I think we can try to piece together the breakdown.

 

My bigger concern was the decision to throw to Singletary on the 2nd & 10 play right before ... 

[ricojes]

2 minutes ago, SJDK said:

This is true but if Haushka makes the two kicks and if we get that face mask call on third down it could have easily been another 9 points

Definitely a lot of "ifs" throughout the course of that game, for both teams.  I just believe another TD by the Bills puts that game away.  This team should be scoring more.  The Bills consistently were in Browns territory and it almost seemed like they used a different playbook every time they crossed the 50.  Just frustrating.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

On replay it looked like Allen was confused with the playcall and needed to huddle up.  There was no urgency in his walk up to the line either, and when you see J Brown's reaction at the end of the play, I think we can try to piece together the breakdown.

 

My bigger concern was the decision to throw to Singletary on the 2nd & 10 play right before ... 

 

this last segment on WGR is great. They are talking right now how seems everything Allen has been doing lately is all predetermined QBing. The decision on where to go with the Ball is made at the line. 
 

they have coached his aggressiveness out of him. 

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Why? 

 

Singletary had plenty of space ahead of him and it's a nice 6 yard gain. He should've went OOB. I had no issue with that decision. 

he didn’t go out of bounds. 

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

On replay it looked like Allen was confused with the playcall and needed to huddle up.  There was no urgency in his walk up to the line either, and when you see J Brown's reaction at the end of the play, I think we can try to piece together the breakdown.

 

My bigger concern was the decision to throw to Singletary on the 2nd & 10 play right before ... 

 

Why?  They need to get the ball more to Singletery in space.  The play was also along the sideline and the Brown's defender made a great play (or Singleterry didn't make a great play) that it gave the RB a decent chance to get out of bounds. 

 

 

[Casey D]

23 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Lamar Jackson’s wonderlic score was 13. Deshaun Watson had the lowest wonderlic score of his draft class. Josh Rosen scored higher than Patrick Mahomes.

 

Wonderlic is completely irrelevant.

 

There is not “substantial progress”. The offense is scoring less now than they did the first five games. Allen is regressing. Which is inexcusable.

You can't make a man understand what he does not want to understand.

[GG]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why? 

 

Singletary had plenty of space ahead of him and it's a nice 6 yard gain. He should've went OOB. I had no issue with that decision. 

 

Nope, not when you see the playcall and the defense.  The Browns were overloaded on the right side and when Allen took the snap he saw that the LB who had shifted over to possibly rush dropped into coverage.  But Beasley ran a great pattern and was wide open to the left, with Allen looking straight at him.  If Allen releases at that time, Beasley easily picks up a 1st down and may still have gone out of bounds.

 

The point being that at this moment in the game time and distance is valuable, and Beasley was 6 yards further downfield with an unobstructed throw.   Allen instead looked him off and went to a harder pass that was tipped on a prior play.   Part of the reason Singletary slipped is that he had to readjust for the catch.

 

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Some good comments on this thread:

 

*  I agree with others that the Bills coaches may be over emphasizing not turning the ball over at the expense of making big plays by being aggressive.  On the positive side Allen has learned as he hasn't thrown an INT in 4 straight games and only 1 in 5 games.  On the negative side we may be asking Allen to play with one hand tied behind his back.

 

*  I think McD's basic premise in emphasizing limiting TO's is that the Bills have an elite defense and the first commandment of the Bills O is to NOT PUT THE D IN A TOUGH SPOT.  The problem with this is that our D is not close to being elite.  It's a good D but in no way can it take over and dominate a game in the way that elite defenses can.  The lack of 3 & outs and forced turnovers is a real limitation.

 

*  The reality is that for all intents & purposes McD is saying I'm okay winning games 14 - 7.  Well if that's the case you can't B word when your O doesn't score 20 points now can you?

 

*  There has to be a sweet spot where Allen and the O take more chances throwing the ball.  One INT is not bad if you throw 3 TD's.  But then when you look at our skill players who is going to make those great catches we see in every game?  Brown runs great routes , gets open and Allen gets him the ball for some nice gains.  But how many amazing catches has he made?  And who is going to win those 50/50 balls so critical to generating chunk plays?  Why would a defense fear our play action pass when we don't have an explosive RB?  And while I'm hopeful for Singleterry until he busts one up the middle for a 50 yard gain he AND Gore represent nothing worse then a 10 yard gain if a D misplays the run.

 

We just aren't there yet on Offense.  We're in the middle of an offensive rebuild and we'll have to accept that offensive production will be choppy the rest of the season.