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The D isn't built to handle what hit them today


Big Blitz

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14 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

The Bills D is more oriented to stopping the pass rather than power running. That is good, because the NFL is a passing league overall. But what is not good, is that the offense does not score enough to force opposing teams to go pass heavy.

 

The D was oriented to stopping the pass last year and was ranked highly.  The run defense was middle of the road.  

 

What's changed defensively?

 

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5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The D was oriented to stopping the pass last year and was ranked highly.  The run defense was middle of the road.  

 

What's changed defensively?

 

 

The last two games and getting gashed by the run is reminiscent of last year.  Same defensive scheme, same MLB with a little more experience and a rookie DT who is a bit undersized.  IMO, the DTs should be more traditional one tech guys who can stop the run since that is not the LB's primary role.

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I wasn't implying the personnel and scheme should be overhauled.  Absolutely not.  

 

I do think we need to be better up front either adding a piece, moving Tremaine (you do that in the off season), or getting better on the edges.  Either another OLB or DE.  How who and when idk. 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While I certainly wouldn't mind getting a premier edge rusher, it's not an absolute necessity. 

 

Carolina was 2nd in the league in sacks in 2016, McDermott's last year there. Who was their big sack artist? Mario Addison led them with 9.5, and the next guy got 6.

 

In 2015 they were 6th in the league in sacks. Kawann Short had 11 and Addison was next with 6.

 

In 2013 they led the league with 60. They had Greg Hardy in his one truly great year with 15. And Charles Johnson did very well across from him with 11.0. Is Charles Johnson an "elite edge rusher." The year after that they had 40.

 

Again, I wouldn't mind a bit if we get a guy like that. But it looks a bit as if McDermott defenses manufacture sacks from scheme and lots of guys getting a few.

 

And while drive-killing sacks are nice, any way you kill the drive is pretty much as good.

Okay. But where are the sacks NOW? The turnovers? Fine. A premier pass rusher is not a requirement. The problem here is that the sum of the pass rushing components are not good enough. The solution is clearly not to stand pat because it's not really not working in that department. If you want to add multiple guys as opposed to one premier player, cool. I don't think you can make a case that they're good enough as is.

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5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Okay. But where are the sacks NOW? The turnovers? Fine. A premier pass rusher is not a requirement. The problem here is that the sum of the pass rushing components are not good enough. The solution is clearly not to stand pat because it's not really not working in that department. If you want to add multiple guys as opposed to one premier player, cool. I don't think you can make a case that they're good enough as is.

 

 

They're playing extremely good defense without the sacks. 

 

And yeah, they sure weren't good yesterday but overall this D has been excellent. We're 8th in QB hits this year (NFL.com), and above average in sacks at 14th.

 

The solution could easily be to stand pat. Because the goal isn't to win this year. That may be the goal of many fans on here but McDermott and Beane have made very plain what their goal is ... to be consistently competitive. Not to win this year. To be consistently competitive. And a lot of deals that would help us win this year would hurt in the long run. They won't make those deals. Nor should any smart organization with their goals.

 

Now, if they find deals that would help this year but not hurt in the long run ... great. That's the kind of move that would make sense.

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7 hours ago, Turk71 said:

  His run stop % fell off a cliff his last 2 years in Carolina after being at a high level for two years, it has never recovered. Carolina had no interest in re-signing him.

   A lack of sacks has nothing to do with it, his job is to occupy blockers and stuff the run and unfortunately he is not that good at it.

 

 

Nonsense. Carolina didn't re-sign him because they were having cap problems and had other priorities. And after letting him go, coincidentally, their defensive yards allowed per carry went from 3.9 YPC (9th) with him in 2016 and 4.0 YPC (10th) with him in 2017 to 4.7 YPC (20th) without him. Weird, hunh? How with him there they stopped the run like crazy and when he left it was almost like they couldn't stop it at all.

 

And then the Bills go from 23rd in defensive YPC in 2017, their last year without Star ...  to 9th in the league in Star's first year with them.

 

Wacky how the coincidences pile up around Star, hunh? How the teams where he's been there (sucking, according to you) have stopped the run better? Nutty.

 

And run stop percentage is a stat with a ton of variables beyond how well you play. Does a nose tackle occupy a double-team and stand them up and cause the RB to cut to a different hole? Whoops, he failed on the play according to run stop percentage. Lotulelei's role is to allow other guys to raise their run stop percentages.

 

If he had fallen off a cliff in Carolina his last two years and wasn't getting the job that they wanted done ... don't you think that his defensive coordinator might have maybe noticed? And not paid him $10 mill a year to come with him? This argument is simply ridiculous.

 

There's an argument that can be made that he has fallen off between last year and this year. But as of last year he was doing an excellent job eating blocks and stuffing the run that way.

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense. Carolina didn't re-sign him because they were having cap problems and had other priorities. And after letting him go, coincidentally, their defensive yards allowed per carry went from 3.9 YPC (9th) with him in 2016 and 4.0 YPC (10th) with him in 2017 to 4.7 YPC (20th) without him. Weird, hunh? How with him there they stopped the run like crazy and when he left it was almost like they couldn't stop it at all.

 

And then the Bills go from 23rd in defensive YPC in 2017, their last year without Star ...  to 9th in the league in Star's first year with them.

 

Wacky how the coincidences pile up around Star, hunh? How the teams where he's been there (sucking, according to you) have stopped the run better? Nutty.

 

And run stop percentage is a stat with a ton of variables beyond how well you play. Does a nose tackle occupy a double-team and stand them up and cause the RB to cut to a different hole? Whoops, he failed on the play according to run stop percentage. Lotulelei's role is to allow other guys to raise their run stop percentages.

 

If he had fallen off a cliff in Carolina his last two years and wasn't getting the job that they wanted done ... don't you think that his defensive coordinator might have maybe noticed? And not paid him $10 mill a year to come with him? This argument is simply ridiculous.

 

There's an argument that can be made that he has fallen off between last year and this year. But as of last year he was doing an excellent job eating blocks and stuffing the run that way.

  I read a post of yours in another thread defending PFF. You pointed out that the NFL teams pay for and value their analysis and insight. PFF doesn't agree with your assessment and has rated him a poor performer for years, including his last 2 in Carolina.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/pro_football_focus_names_star_lotuleleis_buffalo_bills_deal_among_most_overrated.html

2018_03.03_Star_PFF.jpg

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/22/nfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft/amp/

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/19/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-sheldon-richardson/amp/

  

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3 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

  I read a post of yours in another thread defending PFF. You pointed out that the NFL teams pay for and value their analysis and insight. PFF doesn't agree with your assessment and has rated him a poor performer for years, including his last 2 in Carolina.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/pro_football_focus_names_star_lotuleleis_buffalo_bills_deal_among_most_overrated.html

2018_03.03_Star_PFF.jpg

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/22/nfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft/amp/

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/19/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-sheldon-richardson/amp/

  

 

Why bother bringing play highlights and outside rankings when the opinions are dug in.  Star is the star, dammit.

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22 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Forgot to add in Ryan Kerrigan...

I'd run a 3-4 D with those guys.

TJ Watt and Nick Bosa as OLBs with Kerrigan, Joey, JJ versatile enough to move into those spots as well to confuse.

Kuechly and Vander Esch are the MLBs

Joey and Kerrigan at DE with JJ in the middle.

 

Would be the best D ever, possibly 0 points all season if all healthy.

What's your deal with white guys???

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21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

His "massive" regression? Puh-leeze. If he'd massively regressed, McDermott, I'm guessing, might possibly have noticed and, you know, not brought him to Buffalo.

 

What, pray tell, was his "massive regression"? Going from averaging 2.5 sacks his first four years to 1.5 sacks that final year? Woooooooooooow!!!!! Massive!!!

 

He's never been a big numbers guy. His sacks have mostly been of the I'll keep active and occasionally the edge guys will cause a QB to run into me type. 

 

He's a space eater. It's what he's always done and it's what they hired him to do here. And he did it just fine last year, but there are questions this year.

 

He's a waste of space. Gets beat consistently 1:1 and gets pushed around. He has zero pursuit laterally and once pushed aside the RB is gone and the OL is on our LBs. Standing up on the snap, getting pushed around and watching the play behind you is not a space eater.

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22 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Well McDermott continues to force Edmunds at MLB when it's starting to become obvious it isn't his position... perhaps the guys a little stubborn and confident in his abilities as a coach.... Star is essentially useless. The defensive line overall is pretty damn mediocre with a good chunk of change invested in it. 

Right on. Edmunds needs to go outside. We need a disruptive and stout MLB, a new DT and DE. Jordan Philips,and Ed Oliver are excellent players and they of course remain.

 

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28 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Right on. Edmunds needs to go outside. We need a disruptive and stout MLB, a new DT and DE. Jordan Philips,and Ed Oliver are excellent players and they of course remain.

 

I'm beginning to feel this way myself. The guy is a physical freak as a coverage machine, but he's meh as a run-stopper. Can't seem to get off blocks. Why not play him where his strength is?

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16 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

I'm beginning to feel this way myself. The guy is a physical freak as a coverage machine, but he's meh as a run-stopper. Can't seem to get off blocks. Why not play him where his strength is?

Months ago I didn't see it. The more that I watch Edmunds in the middle, it is painful to watch him, knowing his true strength is on the outside. It is almost like McDermott is making it work...square peg in a round hole.

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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They're playing extremely good defense without the sacks. 

 

And yeah, they sure weren't good yesterday but overall this D has been excellent. We're 8th in QB hits this year (NFL.com), and above average in sacks at 14th.

 

The solution could easily be to stand pat. Because the goal isn't to win this year. That may be the goal of many fans on here but McDermott and Beane have made very plain what their goal is ... to be consistently competitive. Not to win this year. To be consistently competitive. And a lot of deals that would help us win this year would hurt in the long run. They won't make those deals. Nor should any smart organization with their goals.

 

Now, if they find deals that would help this year but not hurt in the long run ... great. That's the kind of move that would make sense.

The "extremely good defense" is 28 in redzone defense. Their rankings are inflated because the horrible teams they played.

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5 hours ago, noacls said:

The "extremely good defense" is 28 in redzone defense. Their rankings are inflated because the horrible teams they played.

 

 

Red zone defense is one small part of defense. We may be 28th at it but we're also 3rd in yards per drive and 3rd in points per drive. If you keep teams out of the red zone at a high rate, you can have a poor red zone D and still be an excellent defense.

 

The bottom line is does the D stifle the opponent's offense, stop them getting yards, give our offense good field position and stop points from being scored.

 

And the answer is yes. Our defense has played terrific this year. Not last week, certainly, but they've been elite over the course of the year. They have to keep it up, obviously.

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6 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

He's a waste of space. Gets beat consistently 1:1 and gets pushed around. He has zero pursuit laterally and once pushed aside the RB is gone and the OL is on our LBs. Standing up on the snap, getting pushed around and watching the play behind you is not a space eater.

 

 

That's really not true. It's full of wild exaggeration, as Joe B's column today makes clear.

 

 

17 hours ago, GG said:

 

Why bother bringing play highlights and outside rankings when the opinions are dug in.  Star is the star, dammit.

 

 

You're right that he shouldn't bother, but not because people are dug in. Because a space eater can be doing a terrific job and still have a low run stop percentage. If he's raising the run stop percentage of the guys around him, he's doing his job.

 

Run stop percentage has obvious problems to it. If teams don't think they can move you and so they run away from you, your run stop percentage will drop. The stat itself has major flaws. Some defenses are built to funnel backs to certain guys. The guys who make up the funnel will have low run stop percentages even when they're doing what the coaches want them to do.

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On 10/29/2019 at 11:46 AM, ScottLaw said:

Two bad games in a row where they were exposed in certain areas.... let's see if they can adjust. I'm not arguing McDermott isn't a good defensive coach. He is. 

 

 

 

I guess we'll have to disagree about how good the defense was in the Miami game. For me when you allow 18 points and force two turnovers, that's a pretty good game for a defense.

 

Certainly they were bad against Philly.

 

And fair enough if you're agreeing McDermott is a good defensive coach. If I misunderstood you, I apologize.

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14 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Am I not allowed to like white players or something? Are you racist?

 

I read everyone's reasons why the Bills lost against the Eagles. I would say the biggest reason the Eagles won is because Fletcher Cox was on tape talking about how he was going to blow a guy's head off with a shotgun. If the Eagles lost again, they would all probably be fired after that. They really were playing for their jobs.

 

That's really what only wins in the NFL. Driving people to early deaths.

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1 hour ago, marky said:

 

I read everyone's reasons why the Bills lost against the Eagles. I would say the biggest reason the Eagles won is because Fletcher Cox was on tape talking about how he was going to blow a guy's head off with a shotgun. If the Eagles lost again, they would all probably be fired after that. They really were playing for their jobs.

 

That's really what only wins in the NFL. Driving people to early deaths.

I thought they were rallied around Cox as well...

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9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's really not true. It's full of wild exaggeration, as Joe B's column today makes clear.

The same Joe who made it clear for the past several weeks that he wasn't doing his job. Must have got to talkin' to by McBeane. I'm not saying Star is the only problem, I'm saying is that he is not anywhere close to living up to the what he's getting paid. 200 + yards up the gut is just awful. 

15 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

Months ago I didn't see it. The more that I watch Edmunds in the middle, it is painful to watch him, knowing his true strength is on the outside. It is almost like McDermott is making it work...square peg in a round hole.

Agree, sort of like watching the Cody Ford RT experiment.

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On 10/28/2019 at 10:58 PM, HalftimeAdjustment said:

The Bills D is more oriented to stopping the pass rather than power running. That is good, because the NFL is a passing league overall. But what is not good, is that the offense does not score enough to force opposing teams to go pass heavy.

 

On 10/28/2019 at 11:30 PM, Happy Gilmore said:

 

The last two games and getting gashed by the run is reminiscent of last year.  Same defensive scheme, same MLB with a little more experience and a rookie DT who is a bit undersized.  IMO, the DTs should be more traditional one tech guys who can stop the run since that is not the LB's primary role.

i have not heard anyone talking about this yet, and i may be wrong as i have a few at the games, and a few before, and a few after....but...

 

seems like Eagles went heavy TWELVE personnel sets , and Lorax was on the sidelines an awful lot while Marlow came in the play the TE. Big difference there in terms of run stopping ability etc. I am not quite sure if there is anywhere to look up those numbers, but seems like 70 % or more  of the game before the last 5 minutes only two LB's were on the field for the Bills. I see 57 had like 40% of the snaps, but think a lot of those were when the game was already decided. 

 

I thought for sure they would make the halftime adjustment and come back out and run their base D, especially on 1st down, but they just never made that change. 

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On 10/27/2019 at 9:04 PM, BringBackOrton said:

The defense was playing great until Allen giftwrapped the Eagles 7.

 

All today proved is that this defense can’t carry Allen for 16 games.

Most offenses have at least one turnover per game.  That's part of the game.

 

The problem Sunday is that the defense couldn't get themselves off the field, mostly because they couldn't stop the run.  That's rough, time consuming and wears a defense down.

 

The defensive hasn't played great for two games in a row now.  Their weaknesses have been exposed and it will cost us going forward.

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15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

i have not heard anyone talking about this yet, and i may be wrong as i have a few at the games, and a few before, and a few after....but...

 

seems like Eagles went heavy TWELVE personnel sets , and Lorax was on the sidelines an awful lot while Marlow came in the play the TE. Big difference there in terms of run stopping ability etc. I am not quite sure if there is anywhere to look up those numbers, but seems like 70 % or more  of the game before the last 5 minutes only two LB's were on the field for the Bills. I see 57 had like 40% of the snaps, but think a lot of those were when the game was already decided. 

 

I thought for sure they would make the halftime adjustment and come back out and run their base D, especially on 1st down, but they just never made that change. 

 

Interesting.  McD and Frazier were probably more concerned with Ertz and Goedert more than the run; they stopped the TEs for the most part.  It didn't seem like they were interested in getting to Wentz, which makes sense why LorAx didn't get as much playing time - he's terrible in coverage.  From reading other threads around here, a couple of plays were the deciding factor as well as Edmunds missing gap assignments and Hyde and/or Milano over pursuing on running plays where Philly saw this and took advantage of it.

 

By halftime, the game was easily within reach.  I could see how they wouldn't really adjust when the coaches figured some of the players just didn't make a couple of plays.  Later in the 3rd quarter Philly started piling it on and put the game away.   The offense wasn't going to win the game.

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1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

The same Joe who made it clear for the past several weeks that he wasn't doing his job. Must have got to talkin' to by McBeane. I'm not saying Star is the only problem, I'm saying is that he is not anywhere close to living up to the what he's getting paid. 200 + yards up the gut is just awful. 

Agree, sort of like watching the Cody Ford RT experiment.

Right! Experiments are all that they are. However, Edmunds and Ford are gaining valuable game experience.

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On 10/29/2019 at 3:35 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They're playing extremely good defense without the sacks. 

 

And yeah, they sure weren't good yesterday but overall this D has been excellent. We're 8th in QB hits this year (NFL.com), and above average in sacks at 14th.

 

The solution could easily be to stand pat. Because the goal isn't to win this year. That may be the goal of many fans on here but McDermott and Beane have made very plain what their goal is ... to be consistently competitive. Not to win this year. To be consistently competitive.

I think Brandon Beane disagrees with your assessment of Brandon Beane based on the fact that he was most certainly at least interested in Clark/Clowney. Price wasn't right for him apparently, but he knows the deal.

 

And the time to win is always now. This is year 3, not year 1. They're gonna get 4 years and I'm good with that, but things change quickly if the results aren't there. The results ARE there this season as far as I'm concerned. 5-2 is right where they should be at this point. Can't judge anything that hasn't occurred, but we'll see how things go.

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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's really not true. It's full of wild exaggeration, as Joe B's column today makes clear.

 

 

 

 

You're right that he shouldn't bother, but not because people are dug in. Because a space eater can be doing a terrific job and still have a low run stop percentage. If he's raising the run stop percentage of the guys around him, he's doing his job.

 

Run stop percentage has obvious problems to it. If teams don't think they can move you and so they run away from you, your run stop percentage will drop. The stat itself has major flaws. Some defenses are built to funnel backs to certain guys. The guys who make up the funnel will have low run stop percentages even when they're doing what the coaches want them to do.

You're not citing Joe Buscaglia as some sort of football expert, are you?

 

 

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i went back over the horrible philly game.

 

the d was pretty solid in the first half, terrible fumble caused it to be a bad result score wise.

 

i was on board thinking we were soft up the middle (and i agree we seem to have more softness there than anywhere else), but after seeing the all 22 on star, looking pretty good, and watching the game again, what blew my mind were two things:

 

Screens and penalties.

 

penalties weren't as killer for the d this game, but we as a team have a real problem with idiotic penalties.  a couple of the holding calls were ultra chinsy, but pre snap stuff can and should be eliminated.

 

the screen passes killed us.  those aren't on edmunds or star.  those are outside defenders and guys not reading their cues.

 

i know edmunds is the board's kicking boy (and he has great games and terrible ones, his consistency is for ish, i agree w that much) but our other two LBs were trash vs screens on sunday too.

 

execution (if we count penalties as execution) is clearly our biggest issue, but in the past two weeks opponents have found a couple of tendencies/players to exploit and they have done so, on both sides of the ball (after NE stole what would have been our biggest win in years after out coaching us on special teams).  our coaches need to come up w some adjustments to implement on the fly if our stuff falls apart again.

 

 

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On 10/27/2019 at 9:21 PM, Big Blitz said:

We built a D built to cover....Read the article in the Ringer this week on how we built a team for the 2020s.  Fast.  And must cover. And get after the QB.  I think we know this anyway.  That's why we have Oliver.    EDIT:  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/10/25/20929585/beginners-guide-to-buffalo-bills-surprising-5-1-start

 

And no doubt we can cover and get to the QB especially against poor to above average lines. 

 

 

The bad news....

 

We are not built to beat big physical olines like the Eagles have. 

 

Edmunds is probably not going to be a run stopping force in the middle.  He was drafted because of his athleticism.  Meaning, he can cover.   

 

And when it all hits the fan like it did today and those big linemen get in space on those screens, and the RBs are good like Philly's are, combined with a coach that knows how to call a game....you got what hit us today.   

 

The Cowboys, Steelers, and Ravens---those are physical and good olines we'll see the down the stretch.  I think they might have 3 of the best olines outside of Indy.  

 

This is something that can and has to be addressed NOW.  Get a legit run stuffing DT like Detroit did last year with Snacks Harrison.  Completely fixed their run D.  If that guy is available get him asap.   

 

I don't know what Denver did today to slow down Indy and their run game but if anyone on their front 7 is available call them.  The Redskins might be shopping Kerrigan to.  

 

That's 3 games left vs good running teams with great olines.  Still have New England to.  That could be 4 losses.  And that's a problem.

 

We have to address it by Tuesday imo.  

 

Defense isn't going to dominate every game, Offense needs to sustain drives, score points, not turn the ball over. Philly's TOP was 12 minutes more 

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This helps to tell the story.

 

Also, I just read on ESPN that we have one of the easiest schedules in the league.  In terms of difficulty, we rank 25 for the entire year (past and future for the season).  We have the 31st ranked schedule up to this point.  In other words, the second easiest schedule up to now.

 

Edited by Peter
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