Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[K-9]

33 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

 

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

 

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.

Are you suggesting we aren’t as good as the Patriots***? That is some razor sharp insight.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.

 

It may be your point, but it's a non sequitor to the point raised in this thread. 

 

If you want to make a post asserting that there's something else wrong with the games the Bills have won, beyond the missed FG made in Wawrow's article and my counter point, you go right ahead but don't hang it on me.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

 

Are you suggesting we aren’t as good as the Patriots***? That is some razor sharp insight.

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Reading the bolded made me laugh Rocket!

 

When the ball is kicked off the 2 teams are in a fight.  Statistics and analysis takes a back seat while the guys play the game.

I'm really trying to appreciate that fact.

Yes! Just get out there and play the game and let it rip! Everything else should take care of itself. Yeah ha! These roughians get themselves in to trouble, but they fight their way out of it!

[K-9]

Just now, FireChans said:

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

Perhaps you need to re-evaluate what Wawrow is getting at. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY is surprised that the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats***.  

[FireChans]

Just now, K-9 said:

Perhaps you need to re-evaluate what Wawrow is getting at. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY is surprised that the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats***.  

I read it. The title is literally, “The Bills are 5-1 but are they really that good?” and some people took issue with the “you can’t say we were a kick away from losing.” I think you can, even though it definitely still counts as a win.

 

When did I say we should be surprised the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats? Man you and Hapless are fired up today, is everything okay?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, FireChans said:

That’s what Wawrow’s article is also suggesting and imagine having your journalistic credibility questioned because of it. Laugh out loud funny.

 

Orton,

 

Who is questioning Wawrow's journalistic integrity and how in your viewpoint?

 

I don't think that's happening here at all.  I think Wawrow is too logical and level-headed to mistake reasoned disagreement with the philosophy behind one sentence in his article for "questioning his journalistic integrity" - what a Load of Mularky!

I don't think his article is about comparing the Bills and Patriots, either.  The more reasonable comparison implied by his article would be to other 5 win teams such as the Ravens and Chiefs or to 4 win teams such as the Colts, Texans and Cowboys.

 

 

[eball]

I'm tired of reading opinions that question whether the Bills are good or not based upon their opponents' records.  I've been watching football for the better part of 40 years and what I see is a team that, for the most part, doesn't beat itself with dumb mistakes and finds a way to play best when it matters most (i.e., the 4th quarter).

 

What makes bad teams bad?  They lose to good teams.

[Chandler#81]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Orton,

 

Who is questioning Wawrow's journalistic integrity and how in your viewpoint?

 

I don't think that's happening here at all.  I think Wawrow is too logical and level-headed to mistake reasoned disagreement with the philosophy behind one sentence in his article for "questioning his journalistic integrity" - what a Load of Mularky!

I don't think his article is about comparing the Bills and Patriots, either.  The more reasonable comparison implied by his article would be to other 5 win teams such as the Ravens and Chiefs or to 4 win teams such as the Colts, Texans and Cowboys.

 

 

? Who’s Orton?

if you’re inferring @FireChans is a reincarnated, previously banned poster, #KickHizAzzToTheCurb!

its not like he brings anything quality to the board.

[K-9]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I read it. The title is literally, “The Bills are 5-1 but are they really that good?” and some people took issue with the “you can’t say we were a kick away from losing.” I think you can, even though it definitely still counts as a win.

 

When did I say we should be surprised the Bills aren’t as good as the Pats? Man you and Hapless are fired up today, is everything okay?

You kept saying that because the Bills didn’t blow teams out like the Pats*** did, then they weren’t that good. So, other than directly saying that, that’s exactly what you said. 
 

Nobody is as good as the Patriots*** presently, everybody knows that, so it was kind of absurd to think that fact needed to be pointed out. Yet, you felt compelled to enlighten us all to that simple fact. Like I said, razor sharp insight on your part. 

[Ramza86]

We play at the level of our competition and get into these close games.

 

Ultimately the greatness of this team is up to Allen. If he can get it going, hit those long balls and be more consistent each drive we could probably beat every team left on our schedule outright.

[colin]

19 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with micro-analyzing among fans to discuss what could have been or should have been. I get that. How often do you think Oiler fans talk about what "should have been called" during the comeback game?

 

But using those hypotheticals to support your position on the quality of the team?  "The team isn't as good as you think because these things that usually happen didn't happen" is just lazy.

 

But I'm a homer. So my take carries not water.

 

 

what is really interesting for these kind of takes is that the reviewer is quick to discredit things that did happen but were generally unexpected or unlikely (pick at the 2 yard line, circus catch of an onside kick for a TD), but generally don't credit otherwise likely things that didn't happen (knox drop for a 4 point swing, houghes not bringing fitz down for a sack where he scored, another 4 point swing).

 

this is why handicappers generally look at stats like Yards per play, yards per pass attempt (both on D and O) and broader team stats like that to gauge how good a team is.

 

it's also why people rate O and D based on yards over points, because points are heavily affected by special teams, and where you start with the ball.

[oldmanfan]

My high school golf coach always talked about “If I’da’s”.  If I’d a done this or that.  And that it meant squat.  Same with football.  Bills are 5-1.   They could be 6-0 or 0-6 if they’d a done this or that.  But they didn’t.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, colin said:

what is really interesting for these kind of takes is that the reviewer is quick to discredit things that did happen but were generally unexpected or unlikely (pick at the 2 yard line, circus catch of an onside kick for a TD), but generally don't credit otherwise likely things that didn't happen (knox drop for a 4 point swing, houghes not bringing fitz down for a sack where he scored, another 4 point swing).

 

this is why handicappers generally look at stats like Yards per play, yards per pass attempt (both on D and O) and broader team stats like that to gauge how good a team is.

 

it's also why people rate O and D based on yards over points, because points are heavily affected by special teams, and where you start with the ball.

 

Good point - and reinforces the take that looking at hypotheticals quickly becomes a mess

 

As far as the "people rate O and D based on yards over points"...I'm not sure it's true, but even if true it doesn't exactly make sense to me. I mean, yards are heavily affected by special teams too, right?  For example, last year the Bills had a great D on yards -- but it was pointed out that our ST spotted the opponent's offense great field position so consistently that statistic was skewed.

[stuvian]

the Patriots game showed that we belong at the big kids table. Still we haven't been dominant in any of our wins. The defense carries us in the first half until the offense shows up in the second half. The offense looks better with each passing week. By season's end I expect our offense will notch a few wins of its own. What's different is that this team seems to know how to close out a hard fought win psychologically and emotionally. We haven't seen that since the glory years or at least Wade and Flutie. 

 

Notice how Allen's INTs have dropped off. Daboll is managing his growth very intelligently. The deep ball will come back once the short game is mastered.  

 

McDermott is building a winner. It's tangible. You can tell it's a culture of earning it, not waiting for a few stars to bail us out. This bodes well for our rivalry with the Pats who rely on culture over talent

[colin]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point - and reinforces the take that looking at hypotheticals quickly becomes a mess

 

As far as the "people rate O and D based on yards over points"...I'm not sure it's true, but even if true it doesn't exactly make sense to me. I mean, yards are heavily affected by special teams too, right?  For example, last year the Bills had a great D on yards -- but it was pointed out that our ST spotted the opponent's offense great field position so consistently that statistic was skewed.

 

total yards, and yards per play will give you a good idea.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

apologies if already posted    Another article from John 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-cb-tredavious-white-keeps-coming-big-saves-003330362--nfl.html

 

Bills CB Tre'Davious White keeps coming up with big saves

(Are people that gullible? or is he being a kill joy?) 

 

RCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) --

Cornerback Tre'Davious White occasionally enjoys parading around the Buffalo Bills facility in goaltending gear while claiming to have been the best hockey player in his native Louisiana history.

It's all fiction, including The Tre'Davious White Goalie Academy, where he supposedly taught Buffalo Sabres starter Carter Hutton all he knows.

White, in fact, was unfamiliar with hockey until last year, when he became a big fan of Hutton while attending his first NHL game.

 

All joking aside, White was immediately captivated by Hutton because he can appreciate how a goalie's role is no different than his.

''Ultimately, I don't want to be embarrassed out there. So, when you're the last line of defense, and somebody catches the ball on you, that's all everybody's going to talk about, right?'' White said. ''Just like a touchdown or when somebody scores a goal, you want to try to defend the goal, and the team is depending on you to try to save the day.''

[jimmy10]

All I ask for is 100% mistake-free football, winning out the season and then a super bowl victory.

 

That’s all.
 

Then, and only then, will I be on the fence about the long-term viability of Josh, McBermott and Deane. 

[BringBackFlutie]

18 hours ago, teef said:

oh no.  the bills are a team learning how to win, and that's ok.  the pats have been doing what the pats have been doing for so long, it's all second nature to them.  it's ok for the bills not to be world beaters at this point.  if anything they're exceeding expectations so far.

 

I agree, buuuut what's odd to me is that I read somewhere recently that we were 5-2 at one point during our playoff year with McD. ...so is this the same learning to win we did 2 years ago?  Of course, if we beat the Eagles, 6-1 is different than 5-2.  And, although we're not playing great teams, we're giving up far less points and not living off of turnovers on D.  But it's still strange to me that we're so close to that same position.

 

Anyway, I have no idea what the point of the article was.  There doesn't seem to be a conclusion.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

I agree, buuuut what's odd to me is that I read somewhere recently that we were 5-2 at one point during our playoff year with McD. ...so is this the same learning to win we did 2 years ago?  Of course, if we beat the Eagles, 6-1 is different than 5-2.  And, although we're not playing great teams, we're giving up far less points and not living off of turnovers on D.  But it's still strange to me that we're so close to that same position.

 

Anyway, I have no idea what the point of the article was.  There doesn't seem to be a conclusion.

i think it's different in the sense that the team this year is the one mcd and beane envisioned as opposed to "inherited".  we knew last year was going to be a wash, so i hope what success we may see going forward isn't a one and done type situation.  we hope to be confident that the bills can go to the playoffs every year for the next decade.  this could be the first step.

 

we all know the bills are going to lose more games this season.  there will be meltdowns after it happens, but clawing and scratching away for each win ok for now.  

[Royale with Cheese]

Every time the Bills have started 6-1, we've gone to the Super Bowl....

 

[Mr. WEO]

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 5:01 PM, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

 

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.  .  

 

  

 

The Bills had the same opportunity to study the Dolphins D--which was without a few key players they have. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Every time the Bills have started 6-1, we've gone to the Super Bowl....

 

 

this is a bit outdated but it fits in 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/09/22/buffalo-bills-3-0-starts-season-results/

 

 

 

 Here is how the nine previous Bill teams fared, including two AFL titles and two Super Bowl appearances:

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

I agree, buuuut what's odd to me is that I read somewhere recently that we were 5-2 at one point during our playoff year with McD. ...so is this the same learning to win we did 2 years ago?  Of course, if we beat the Eagles, 6-1 is different than 5-2.  And, although we're not playing great teams, we're giving up far less points and not living off of turnovers on D.  But it's still strange to me that we're so close to that same position.

 

Anyway, I have no idea what the point of the article was.  There doesn't seem to be a conclusion.

 

Oh, yeah, that first year for McD.  I'd rather not remember that season.  We were indeed 5-2, with one of the best rush Ds in the league

Then Something Happened, we went from giving up an average of 80 ypg rushing, to giving up >200 yds the next three games.  We gave up 482 defensive yds to the Saints, had 1 offensive turnover for each team, and benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman the following week.  I'm not quite sure "learning how to win" is exactly an apt what we did there. 

 

I have my opinion about what was going down, other people have theirs.   In any case, I think this year is indeed different - we have a much more solid defense (with our starting and/or 2nd string personnel) across the board.  Of concern is the health of Milano and Corey Thompson, as well as the season loss of Horrible Harry who was showing well.  Big fall off at both positions when we get down to the 3rd string.  On offense, it was pretty clear Taylor was not going to develop along the lines of the sort of offensive system McDermott wanted to run, so the goal was draft a new QB and we almost won too much to achieve that (but Beane got 'er done).

 

I think the point of the article is to raise the question and lay out some arguments pro and con, not to reach a conclusion.  The conclusion will be reached on the field. 

 

Either Beane and McDermott will find acquisitions/make adjustments to keep our defense strong or they won't.  Either our offense will step up and become more efficient at generating points/hanging on to the ball or they won't.  Answer coming soon to a stadium near you.

 

 

 

[CommonCents]

Everyone will have a better idea after Sunday. The Eagles have some talent and they will be playing for a chance to salvage their season. If the Bills dominate them that will open some eyes around the league. 

[Fan in San Diego]

On 10/22/2019 at 12:43 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

I think Miami played their best game of the year. They are clearly not going 0-16. That team is better coached than I thought.

 

Bills came out flat, woke up and then turned it on and put away a desperate team. It wasnt too long ago that certain bearded QB was QBing a team that started 0-8 before winning a few games against some good teams. Fitz knows what it takes to win and he gave it his all sunday. Bills were a better team and won, but Miami will be no cakewalk for the rest of the year. 

 

Unless Rosen plays

 

I think it was Dallas, was down to Miami in the 1st half and then blew them out in the second half. Kind of like our experience, Miami is a better 1st half team than people give them credit for.

 

[SloanBillsFan]

"Buffalo can chalk up two wins on missed kicks.

The Bills’ season-opening 17-16 win over the New York Jets came in a game Kaare Vedvik missed an extra-point and 45-yard field goal attempt. In a 14-7 win at Tennessee in Week 5, Titans kicker Cairo Santos missed all four field-goal attempts including two from inside 40 yards."

 

Maybe I'm suffering from a case of Cranial-Rectal Fusion but, since no one will ever know what would have happened had those teams actually made those field goals, doesn't this fall under the category of "taking what the other team gives you"? 

 

Who's to say if the Titans & Jets HAD made those kicks that the Bills wouldn't have still won? 

 

I haven't drunk so much of the Kool-aid that I don't realize the Bills aren't fully developed yet. This schedule, however, is based on last year's record, which wasn't great.  That's just the way it works.

 

As McDermott and many of the players have said ad nauseum, 1) the weekly goal is to end up 1-0 (which they have done pretty well so far), and 2) records don't mean squat BEFORE a game. For what DOES mean squat, see #1

 

Yes, the team that has given the Bills their only defeat thus far is the "defending" Super Bowl champs who themselves had a fairly pathetic offensive performance against this possibly not-so-good team even with all the turnovers. 

 

The time to make an intelligent determination of just how good this team is or isn't would be sometime in January 2020.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by SloanBillsFan

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The Bills had the same opportunity to study the Dolphins D--which was without a few key players they have. 

Right.  I've said throughout that the Bills were not well prepared for the game.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

So when the dull fins beat NE in Miami 

 

Was googly eye Superior to Belichick?

 

***** happens 

 

On any given Sunday

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Right.  I've said throughout that the Bills were not well prepared for the game.  

 

 

How can you not be prepared to face the worst offense in the NFL?  4 other teams had no such problem.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

How can you not be prepared to face the worst offense in the NFL?  4 other teams had no such problem.

How can they be unprepared?  Lots of ways.  Lousy film study.  Failure to recognize appropriate keys.  Failure to teach appropriate keys.   Failure to self scout well enough.  Failure to recognize how the Dolphins might choose to attack certain defenses.  Failure to recognize defensive adjustments the Dolphins likely would make.  

 

Everyone has a job to do, players and coaches.  Just like the players, the coaches do a better job some weeks than others.   Everything changes from week to week.   What the Bills are trying to do is achieve a high level of excellence every week, but that's hard to do.  They didn't do a good enough job.  

 

How could the Cowboys be unprepared for the Jets?   Easy.   It's very difficult to be excellently prepared week after week after week.  That's why Belichick is a genius and everyone else is changing.   The Pats are the only team that's well prepared essentially all of the time.  

[Gugny]

15 hours ago, SloanBillsFan said:

"Buffalo can chalk up two wins on missed kicks.

The Bills’ season-opening 17-16 win over the New York Jets came in a game Kaare Vedvik missed an extra-point and 45-yard field goal attempt. In a 14-7 win at Tennessee in Week 5, Titans kicker Cairo Santos missed all four field-goal attempts including two from inside 40 yards."

 

Maybe I'm suffering from a case of Cranial-Rectal Fusion but, since no one will ever know what would have happened had those teams actually made those field goals, doesn't this fall under the category of "taking what the other team gives you"? 

 

Who's to say if the Titans & Jets HAD made those kicks that the Bills wouldn't have still won? 

 

I haven't drunk so much of the Kool-aid that I don't realize the Bills aren't fully developed yet. This schedule, however, is based on last year's record, which wasn't great.  That's just the way it works.

 

As McDermott and many of the players have said ad nauseum, 1) the weekly goal is to end up 1-0 (which they have done pretty well so far), and 2) records don't mean squat BEFORE a game. For what DOES mean squat, see #1

 

Yes, the team that has given the Bills their only defeat thus far is the "defending" Super Bowl champs who themselves had a fairly pathetic offensive performance against this possibly not-so-good team even with all the turnovers. 

 

The time to make an intelligent determination of just how good this team is or isn't would be sometime in January 2020.

 

 

 

You should consider changing your font size.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

39 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

You should consider changing your font size.

 

 

This X 100

 

PSA  --  When copying something after you paste it look for 

 

  Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

 

 

just click  Paste as plain text instead

[Bronxbomber21]

23 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The Bills had the same opportunity to study the Dolphins D--which was without a few key players they have. 

I think the problems where the penaltys and the drop passes to be honest.

[SloanBillsFan]

On 10/25/2019 at 6:47 AM, Gugny said:

 

You should consider changing your font size.

 

Sorry. Thanks for pointing that out to me. Not sure why it's posting so large. Am I missing the control somewhere? 

On 10/25/2019 at 7:27 AM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

This X 100

 

PSA  --  When copying something after you paste it look for 

 

  Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

 

 

just click  Paste as plain text instead

Thanks! I use my phone almost exclusively. Must be missing something somewhere... ?