Josh Allen's Adjusted stats for week 1

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I will put it this way.  According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB.  According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

[wiley16350]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

[Kemp]

10 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

[wiley16350]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

[wiley16350]

3 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

If this is directed at me, the answer is yes and no.  That can be one of the hardest things to judge.  Most of the time I say no unless the ball is thrown low (to the chest or head area of the defender) and it is obvious that the QB could have done better.  On that play I wouldn't rule out some responsibility on Allen because the defender was in view but it is hard to say for sure because it seemed like the play was designed to go where Allen was throwing it.  Maybe the tackle was supposed to chop block to create a passing lane and he just didn't get there or in time or didn't expect the defender to come.  That is why I go with questionable fault on things like that.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

I disagree with this statement, and the general premise, but that's just me. I'm not a fan of altering stats, as it is an easy window for bias and destroys all credibility in my eyes. If you want to run multiple permutations of the stats, that's fine. If you want to add a multiplier of some kind to a stat you believe correlates to success or winning, that makes sense. Crediting someone with turnovers they didn't commit feels just as disingenuous as taking turnovers away from someone who committed them. I don't know your formula, I have a rating system of my own that I like. It sounds like you want to count incompletions on 3rd downs as a quasi-turnover contextually. When you get to the point of altering the actual stats I would consider it analysis, rather than stats.

 

Either way, more power to ya. Go Bills.

[wiley16350]

6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

[Kemp]

8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

 

If the receiver gets both hands on an up-for-grab ball, that's a great play by the WR and/or a bad play by the D. The throw is still a bad one. 

[wiley16350]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I disagree with this statement, and the general premise, but that's just me. I'm not a fan of altering stats, as it is an easy window for bias and destroys all credibility in my eyes. If you want to run multiple permutations of the stats, that's fine. If you want to add a multiplier of some kind to a stat you believe correlates to success or winning, that makes sense. Crediting someone with turnovers they didn't commit feels just as disingenuous as taking turnovers away from someone who committed them. I don't know your formula, I have a rating system of my own that I like. It sounds like you want to count incompletions on 3rd downs as a quasi-turnover contextually. When you get to the point of altering the actual stats I would consider it analysis, rather than stats.

 

Either way, more power to ya. Go Bills.

You're right, it is an easy window for Bias.  I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible.  I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times.  All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played.  Just be mindful, the coaches tape can take off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.  Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats.  For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities.  I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception?  They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over.  I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating.  That is why there are separate categories.  You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, wiley16350 said:

You're right, it is an easy window for Bias.  I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible.  I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times.  All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played.  Just be mindful, the coaches tape can show off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.  Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats.  For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities.  I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception?  They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over.  I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating.  That is why there are separate categories.  You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.

Yeah, based on your answers to other questions it's definitely analysis. Certainly has it's merits. I'm interested to see how it matches up with my perception of the QBs.

 

Cheers.

[wiley16350]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If the receiver gets both hands on an up-for-grab ball, that's a great play by the WR and/or a bad play by the D. The throw is still a bad one. 

Actually it isn't.  I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play.  The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing.  Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks for the obvious effort put into your analysis OP, appreciate the deep dive beyond the box score! 

[Kemp]

Just now, wiley16350 said:

Actually it isn't.  I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play.  The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing.  Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.

 

I disagree.

 

The only time an up-for-grab is a positive is if time is running out and a TD is a necessity. Even then, it's not really a positive. It's a no-brainer.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Adjusted stats are a subjective interpretation on the reviewers part, not necessarily an accurate one. For instance. on the fumble you charged Allen with, I see Dawkins getting completely smoked by Jenkins. Allen does a good job of seeing it, tucks the ball in, and starts to run up into the pocket. Jenkins gets his hand in and punches the ball out. I don't consider that Allen's fault. That was poor play by Dawkins and a great play by Jenkins.

 

 

 

Also, charging Allen with an interception of a tipped pass at the line? QBs all over the league get passes tipped. They have absolutely no control over where they go once they are tipped.

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

[wiley16350]

6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

I disagree.

 

The only time an up-for-grab is a positive is if time is running out and a TD is a necessity. Even then, it's not really a positive. It's a no-brainer.

Well we can differ on that.  Playing in the backyard, My brother was great at jump balls and I would just throw him one because it was the easiest way to get the ball downfield.  It was at times the play I felt most confident in making because he was that good at it and I knew the defenders couldn't stop it.

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

It's funny how people see different things.  In my opinion he got the ball and immediately threw the pass.  The defender tipped it because he was coming in on a blitz and actually saw Allen throw the ball so he jumped and knocked it down as he was running.  He wasn't sitting at the line waiting and then jumped up and knocked it down because he knew that was where the pass was going.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

That was his read on the play and where he should have gone with the ball. The defender did what defenders do at the line when the QB releases the ball, he got his hands up and managed to deflect the ball. It happens almost every game to almost every QB. The interception is aboult a lucky bounce. Period.

[Jobot]

The one thing I don't know regarding Moseley, is if the Bills opted to avoid running the ball specifically when he was in the game, because they knew whether this would allow them to be successful.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Josh’s adjusted stats for week 1:

 

1-0

[BuffaloMatt]

17 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

That doesn't matter because the Jets weren't the ones stopping the Bills.  

- First drive ended on a Josh Allen fumble.  The defense created the pressure but Allen caused the fumble.  He saw it coming and should have tucked it away and take the sack.  It would have been 3rd and long but the Bills could still have completed a short pass to get in field goal range.

 

- Second drive ended on the interception caused by the Beasley deflection.  that was on 1st down and not in any way caused by the Jets.

 

- Third drive should have ended in a field goal but the Bills had a dumb unsportsmanlike penalty take them out of field goal range.

 

- Fourth drive ended with a dropped pass

 

- Fifth drive ended with the fumbled exchange and the Bills close to long field goal range.  If the snap is successful and the Bills properly run the sneak, the drive would have been at least a field goal.

 

- sixth drive ended on the batted int, which was part good defense and part luck.  The first drive you might say the right defensive call actually ended the drive.

 

- seventh drive was a kneel down

 

- 8th drive ended with the safety, which is debatable to whether it should have counted.  Either way it was more about the Jets line than necessarily a play call by Mosely.

 

- 9th drive ended with a field goal and that was the drive Mosely got hurt on.

 

 

I did charge him for that one and the one that was dropped on the field goal drive.  He wasn't charged for the one deflected at the line or the one caused by the Beasley deflection.

I didn't charge him for the Morse fumble.  The sack fumble I did absolutely charge him for because he saw it coming and didn't secure the ball well enough.  I will have to look at the so-called free play because I will erase an interception in those cases, but I didn't see that as being the case.

Coincidence -perhaps. Nice response and analysis! 

[Mark Long Beach]

5 hours ago, Jobot said:

The one thing I don't know regarding Moseley, is if the Bills opted to avoid running the ball specifically when he was in the game, because they knew whether this would allow them to be successful.

 

From my eyes and some of what I've read.  The loss of Moseley wasn't just his direct play impact but included the entire loss of communication as the QB of the defense.  It's his job to make adjustments and to communicate them to the rest of the D.  The Bills were shifting all of the time.  His job was to make sure the D counters it and stays on the same page.   Losing his experience and communication did really hurt the Jets. 

 

But us no longer shooting ourselves in the foot helped the most.

[oldmanfan]

I appreciate the effort.  Since it’s subjective you’ll get people agreeing and disagreeing which is the fun part of the board.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

 

Yes. Especially when it gets tipped because you clearly just failed to see the guy. Josh was unlucky it was a pick and not just an incomplete but the fact it was tipped was on him. 

7 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

That was his read on the play and where he should have gone with the ball. The defender did what defenders do at the line when the QB releases the ball, he got his hands up and managed to deflect the ball. It happens almost every game to almost every QB. The interception is aboult a lucky bounce. Period.

 

It is on the QB to see the rusher in that scenario. Josh just plain did not see him and he has to. The fact that the tip fell straight into the arms of the defender for the INT? That was unlucky. The fact it was tipped? That is on Josh. 

[wiley16350]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. Especially when it gets tipped because you clearly just failed to see the guy. Josh was unlucky it was a pick and not just an incomplete but the fact it was tipped was on him. 

 

It is on the QB to see the rusher in that scenario. Josh just plain did not see him and he has to. The fact that the tip fell straight into the arms of the defender for the INT? That was unlucky. The fact it was tipped? That is on Josh. 

I think it is possible that it was Allen's fault for the tip because the rusher was free and in Allen's view and maybe he should have looked elsewhere.  The problem is that the receiver was open and the only open receiver that early in the play.  It very well could have been the right pre-snap read and since the receiver was open, going off that read isn't something a QB necessarily will do based on rushers.  You do see that type of deflection all the time without incident.  Allen could have adjusted but then pressure up the middle that got to him after releasing the ball may have caused a sack.  If Allen did hold from throwing to the pre-snap read and avoided the sack, then a play may have developed downfield but none of that is certain.  It is also possible that the TE was supposed to chop block the defender to create a passing lane and that is what kept the play from being successful.  In short, there is too much subjectivity in that play for me to weigh it 100% Allen's fault.  My view is that It appeared as though he threw it to the proper receiver who was open based on the coverage, play design and pre-snap read but he probably should have adjusted to the free defender.  The questionable part is who is responsible for the defender that batted down the ball.  Was the TE supposed to chop block?  Did Allen need to adjust on the fly from his pre-snap read and not challenge the defender or was it just luck that  the defender was able to get 1 hand on the ball to deflect it?

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I think it is possible that it was Allen's fault for the tip because the rusher was free and in Allen's view and maybe he should have looked elsewhere.  The problem is that the receiver was open and the only open receiver that early in the play.  It very well could have been the right pre-snap read and since the receiver was open, going off that read isn't something a QB necessarily will do based on rushers.  You do see that type of deflection all the time without incident.  Allen could have adjusted but then pressure up the middle that got to him after releasing the ball may have caused a sack.  If Allen did hold from throwing to the pre-snap read and avoided the sack, then a play may have developed downfield but none of that is certain.  It is also possible that the TE was supposed to chop block the defender to create a passing lane and that is what kept the play from being successful.  In short, there is too much subjectivity in that play for me to weigh it 100% Allen's fault.  My view is that It appeared as though he threw it to the proper receiver who was open based on the coverage, play design and pre-snap read but he probably should have adjusted to the free defender.  The questionable part is who is responsible for the defender that batted down the ball.  Was the TE supposed to chop block?  Did Allen need to adjust on the fly from his pre-snap read and not challenge the defender or was it just luck that  the defender was able to get 1 hand on the ball to deflect it?

 

Whatever the call Josh has to see that guy and he either has to adjust or just tuck the ball and eat the sack. 

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whatever the call Josh has to see that guy and he either has to adjust or just tuck the ball and eat the sack. 

Darnold had the same thing happen on several attempts but the ball took a lucky bounce for him Bad play design not having the TE chip that defender or a mistake by the young qbs not recognizing there were enough blockers to account for the free rusher and still throwing into that

[formerlyofCtown]

23 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

Yes then we must give credit for TDs and completions on penalties. ?  You really dont get the point of adjusted stats.  The Int falls on Beasley.  The penalty falls on the Jets.  Neither fall on Allen and there are only two numbers that matter. (1-0)

[Doc]

I was glad to see his completion percentage was almost 65% with a decent YPA.  The first INT was on Beasley, the fumbled snap was on Morse (but excusable either way given the lack of playing time these guys had together) and the INT off the tip was just bad luck as I saw Darnold and many other QB's over tke weekend have their passes tipped but not INT'd.  The fumble on the sack was poor ball security on his part.  But there was sloppy play all around on the offense.  Hopefully things are only going to get better.

[Doc]

Oh and with 8 new starters on offense and an OL that couldn't jell because Morse was out and thus the right 3/5 was in flux in the pre-season didn't help.

[Mango]

I generally agree with the altering of events. Taking away events that happened, or crediting events that didn’t. Some of that might just be PTSD from message board fodder.

 

But thanks for putting this together. It is well thought out and a great talking point week to week.  At the very least I can follow your logic on most of this. 

 

Cheers and Go Bills!

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

Oh and with 8 new starters on offense and an OL that couldn't jell because Morse was out and thus the right 3/5 was in flux in the pre-season didn't help.

 

This speaks to my first point. It’s a silly point trying to scapegoat. 

 

I am am glad that the OP isn't doing this. 

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

This speaks to my first point. It’s a silly point trying to scapegoat. 

 

I am am glad that the OP isn't doing this. 

 

The offense is a work in progress so nitpicking why they weren't perfect as a whole is silly, I agree.  But when you read the stat sheet and see that Josh had 4 turnovers, when 2 were not his fault, it's less scapegoating than assigning proper blame. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

Darnold had the same thing happen on several attempts but the ball took a lucky bounce for him Bad play design not having the TE chip that defender or a mistake by the young qbs not recognizing there were enough blockers to account for the free rusher and still throwing into that

 

Yea that it fell right into a defender's hands was unlucky. No disputing that. 

[LeGOATski]

On 9/10/2019 at 7:20 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And the INT that was over turned, it looked more like Allen saw the flag and knew he had a free play, so hard to say if it was a bad decision or just taking a shot on what he knew was a free play anyway.  QBs do this all the time

I went back to look at this Sunday night because I was curious. That was 100% a bad throw by Allen. The flag came out after he threw it.

[njbuff]

On 9/11/2019 at 2:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

Mosely's impact was not overstated. There was a reason the run game popped as soon as he went out. Not saying we wouldn't have found a way back anyway.... who knows what would have happened.... but his loss was definitely felt by the Jets. 

 

Singletary’s first big run came while Mosley was still in the game. 

 

So, the Mosley being hurt theory gets shot down.

 

Injuries happen all the time in the NFL and if it’s not a QB, it’s always next man up.

[LeGOATski]

On 9/10/2019 at 7:28 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

It's possible Allen saw the flag, and I'm not going to go back and review it. A bunch of people on the board have posted that the flag was thrown after the ball left his hand and others posted the opposite.  I really don't know.

 

I'm on the Josh Allen bandwagon. He's the guy. But this is fake news. Allen threw it well before the flag was out. He's gonna make these throws from time to time. He's Brett Favre 2.0. Gotta live with it.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

Singletary’s first big run came while Mosley was still in the game. 

 

So, the Mosley being hurt theory gets shot down.

 

Injuries happen all the time in the NFL and if it’s not a QB, it’s always next man up.

 

Again, I am not saying we would not have come back with Mosely in the game. But losing him hurt the Jets. No question about it.

[Nextmanup]

On 9/10/2019 at 10:17 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

And you might want to throw in the pass that was a horrible choice and worse throw, straight into the hands of the DB, who then dropped the ball.

 

 

[njbuff]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, I am not saying we would not have come back with Mosely in the game. But losing him hurt the Jets. No question about it.

 

It hurt them, but losing Mosley was not going to derail the Bills comeback. 

 

The Jets didn't lose their starting QB, so if they are the good team they say they are, the loss of Mosley should have been overcome by them.

[Doc]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I'm on the Josh Allen bandwagon. He's the guy. But this is fake news. Allen threw it well before the flag was out. He's gonna make these throws from time to time. He's Brett Favre 2.0. Gotta live with it.

 

But he threw it after he saw his receiver (who I believe was his intended target) being interfered with.