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wiley16350

Josh Allen's Adjusted stats for week 1

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Just now, Boca BIlls said:
1 minute ago, mead107 said:

What are adjusted stats? 

Fact or made up ? 

 

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

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Just now, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

No it's not...b.c how they actually played is... How they played 

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1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

Is this acceptable to the nfl Or made up by fans? 

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1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said:

No it's not...b.c how they actually played is... How they played 

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

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I've flipped flopped.  No differant than with Farve.  Teams are going to let him dink and dunk all day.  They dont think he or the offense can play efficient enough to win that way.  Buffalo needs to incorporate the run quicker.  Set up play action better.  Get chunk plays sooner.  

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1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

Let's say the QB correctly reads a blitz, manages to evade the blitz, finds an open receiver 10 yards down the field, throws a perfect pass under pressure, and the receiver gets another 40 yards after the catch. Does that count less than if the QB is standing in a perfect pocket, with no defender even close to him, has all the time in the world to throw, throws to a receiver all alone 50 yards downfield after completely beating his defender? 

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8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

Doesn't matter what your rating is..it's what happened in the game. You are too worried about "Ratings" just watch the game and you will know. This "adjusted" BS is just nonsense. Are we adjusting wins and losses also?

 

I don't feel like coming into this thread so I will ADJUST this argument to say you win. 

Edited by Boca BIlls
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37 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Get off your high horse, wile E., or you won’t have a tomorrow. 

All your thread is, is an If/then stat altering to show your Allen fandom. It’s cool, but hardly thread worthy.

Look

At

My

Post.

Except that it isn't an if, then that.  It is what he did.  He threw the ball to Beasley and it should have been a completion for 5 yards or an incomplete pass at worst.  Which is why he was considered to be 50% on that play.  It shouldn't have been an interception based on what Allen actually did.  On the interception Allen got turned over, I did the same thing.  He made a bad decision, he deserved an interception.  That play went from being nothing in the official stats to an interception on mine because that is what Allen deserved on that play.  Now for Allen, this game kind of evened out in the turnover department but that isn't the case with a lot of games.

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Let's say the QB correctly reads a blitz, manages to evade the blitz, finds an open receiver 10 yards down the field, throws a perfect pass under pressure, and the receiver gets another 40 yards after the catch. Does that count less than if the QB is standing in a perfect pocket, with no defender even close to him, has all the time in the world to throw, throws to a receiver all alone 50 yards downfield after completely beating his defender? 

I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air.  I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them.  The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw.  Both could credit for a score.  The situation you present is part of the reason Allen was credited with an extra 64 yards.

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35 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Get off your high horse, wile E., or you won’t have a tomorrow. 

 

 

Are you going to beat him up and take his lunch money?

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5 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air.  I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them.  The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw.  Both could credit for a score.

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

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38 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Adjusted stats are a subjective interpretation on the reviewers part, not necessarily an accurate one. For instance. on the fumble you charged Allen with, I see Dawkins getting completely smoked by Jenkins. Allen does a good job of seeing it, tucks the ball in, and starts to run up into the pocket. Jenkins gets his hand in and punches the ball out. I don't consider that Allen's fault. That was poor play by Dawkins and a great play by Jenkins.

 

Fumble.jpg

 

 

Also, charging Allen with an interception of a tipped pass at the line? QBs all over the league get passes tipped. They have absolutely no control over where they go once they are tipped.

I didn't charge Allen with the tipped int.  I charged him with 3 turnovers.  The interception that got called back.  The interception that was dropped and the fumble you mentioned above.  I am willing to go back and watch that fumble again and adjust.  I felt like he could have avoided that fumble.

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2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

I would say that it is always more accurate than the official stats but not necessarily perfect.  It isn't really subjective for the most part.  There are plays where it requires more subjectivity but the more subjective it is, the less weight I put into the stat by reducing the impact, which is why you'll see portions of whole numbers in the chart.  Some plays don't earn full weight.  Take the fumble you mentioned before.  If I go back and watch it and agree with your assessment then I can change it to a portion of a fumble rather than a full fumble.  I also want to point out that I didn't charge Allen with that sack, only the fumble.  A QB can be charged with both.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was a factor. Without question. They are already thin at linebacker and Mosely was having a hell of a game. Not saying we wouldn't have come back anyway... but it was a factor and a factor in the run game popping. 

 

Mosley's best play, IMO, was blindly batting down a surefire TD pass to Brown, which lead to the near INT on the Bills' first scoring drive.

 

Of course, that's the play he was injured on, but if he doesn't bat down that pass, Brown snags a TD reception and the game gets even closer than it did.

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18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

I will put it this way.  According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB.  According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.

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3 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I will put it this way.  According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB.  According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

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1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

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10 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

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1 hour ago, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

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3 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

If this is directed at me, the answer is yes and no.  That can be one of the hardest things to judge.  Most of the time I say no unless the ball is thrown low (to the chest or head area of the defender) and it is obvious that the QB could have done better.  On that play I wouldn't rule out some responsibility on Allen because the defender was in view but it is hard to say for sure because it seemed like the play was designed to go where Allen was throwing it.  Maybe the tackle was supposed to chop block to create a passing lane and he just didn't get there or in time or didn't expect the defender to come.  That is why I go with questionable fault on things like that.

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1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

I disagree with this statement, and the general premise, but that's just me. I'm not a fan of altering stats, as it is an easy window for bias and destroys all credibility in my eyes. If you want to run multiple permutations of the stats, that's fine. If you want to add a multiplier of some kind to a stat you believe correlates to success or winning, that makes sense. Crediting someone with turnovers they didn't commit feels just as disingenuous as taking turnovers away from someone who committed them. I don't know your formula, I have a rating system of my own that I like. It sounds like you want to count incompletions on 3rd downs as a quasi-turnover contextually. When you get to the point of altering the actual stats I would consider it analysis, rather than stats.

 

Either way, more power to ya. Go Bills.

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6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

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8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

 

If the receiver gets both hands on an up-for-grab ball, that's a great play by the WR and/or a bad play by the D. The throw is still a bad one. 

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