Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 5 Offenses and Defenses for 2019

[Jay_Fixit]

17 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

What?

 

That's like, the opposite of every impression I've ever gotten from him.

Ya. Jeremiah is pretty fantastic.

 

So I’ll just assume that guy was being a silly guy.

 

If not, then he needs to be plugged in to the social pipeline.

[mannc]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That feels the right list. 

Significant drop off after Buffalo.

 

I would have expected Dallas to be higher (ranked 16).

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Significant drop off after Buffalo.

 

I would have expected Dallas to be higher (ranked 16).

 

Their defensive weakness for me is that other than Byron Jones their secondary is mediocre. My instinct having watched a lot of their games (they are the live later kicks off game in the UK a LOT) is that their numbers will be hurt by giving up too many deep balls. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

My thoughts exactly.

 

They struggle to rush the passer and play the run occasionally. Need to be much improved there.

Read the PFF-written story in last week's FMIA column. Good teams view coverage as more important than pass rush, and the Bills are excellent in coverage. They have actually gotten better on paper since then, which is a credit to Beane. Notably, the Bears and Patriots had fantastic coverage units last year.

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Their defensive weakness for me is that other than Byron Jones their secondary is mediocre. My instinct having watched a lot of their games (they are the live later kicks off game in the UK a LOT) is that their numbers will be hurt by giving up too many deep balls. 

yes, it's not very good. 

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I’ll go with opponents’ yards per pass attempt.  Top 4 last year:  Chicago, Baltimore, Buffalo, Jacksonville.

The top three had the same order for defensive team passer rating, but Jax was sixth (Minnesota was 4th and Cleveland 5th).

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Read the PFF-written story in last week's FMIA column. Good teams view coverage as more important than pass rush, and the Bills are excellent in coverage. They have actually gotten better on paper since then, which is a credit to Beane. Notably, the Bears and Patriots had fantastic coverage units last year.

yes, it's not very good. 

 

Thanks for the heads up on the FMIA column Dave. Sounds interesting. I will look up. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks for the heads up on the FMIA column Dave. Sounds interesting. I will look up. 

Here it is: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/17/pro-football-focus-nfl-analytics-fmia-guest/.

Relevant passage (and as per the advice to teams at the end, note that this is EXACTLY what Beane did this offseason):

 

Coverage is more important than pass rush, all else being equal

Analytics have a way of upsetting your sensibilities and upending some preconceived notions. Growing up, we’ve been conditioned to believe that pass rush is critical. And for good reason—pressure reduces passer rating substantially (by about 30 points) and nearly halves a team’s yards per play average. And we can see from the broadcast angle when pressure affects a quarterback. Because passing is so important, good pass-rushers have been the highest-paid members of most NFL’s defenses.

However, we found that not only does pass coverage (as measured by PFF grades) explain team success better than pass-rushing, but predicts it better as well. This helps explain why the winningest team in the league (New England) has used its only two big-name defensive free-agent signings on cornerbacks over the past decade (Stephon Gilmore and Darrelle Revis), and why defensive end Trey Flowers is currently a Detroit Lion. One need only to go back to last year’s playoffs to see how the quick passing game of today’s NFL mitigates even the strongest pass rush, with the Patriots racking up 78 points en route to the Super Bowl despite facing the vaunted pass rushers on the Chargers and Chiefs.

The caveat to this finding? As a trait, coverage tends to be less stable year to year. The upshot? Invest a lot into coverage, so that some subset of five or six of these players give you an elite group.

[Clyde Smith]

We was top 2 Defense, we only fell off a bit when Milano went down. Imagine if he played the whole entire season.

[Mr. WEO]

Eagles and Chargers (!) Offenses ahead of NO and Rams?

 

Come on...

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Eagles and Chargers (!) Offenses ahead of NO and Rams?

 

Come on...

I would put the Browns’ O ahead of both Philly and LAC.  They will be tough to stop this year.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 6/26/2019 at 2:35 PM, YoloinOhio said:

 

Jags #1 D? I wonder his reasoning. They were 5th last year on the two sites I just looked at. No Pats in top 5 on either side? 

 

Say what???   Pass the joint ...  I want to enjoy this stuff too. 

Top 5 NFL Team Total Defense Statistics - 2018

(* pleading ignorance because I don't recall or have not followed close enough)

1. B'more - lost a # of talented players.  I can see them dropping out of the top 5. 
2. Buffalo - gained talented players more than enough to offset Kyle's big departure.  I cannot see them dropping out of the top 5. 
3. Chi - *
4. Minny - *
5. Jax - *

   

Last season 

Dallas # 7  - 

LAC  # 9 -  

Denver # 22 - 

Edited June 27, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[formerlyofCtown]

23 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

You do realize that he actually was an NFL scout before going to television right?

 

I don’t get this hostility towards him. He’s one of the better media people out there. Bills fans are so easily offended over such nonsense.

I know he was.  From everything Ive heard from him, he probably was not a very good one. 

 

This is a piss poor evaluation by him as usual.  The Jags D will likely not even be top 10.  The Bills D will definitely be top 5.  Denvers top 5 days are behind them.  Denver will sneak into the top 10 but not 5.

Edited June 27, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[ocemur]

On 6/26/2019 at 3:03 PM, formerlyofCtown said:

Top five reasons Jeremiah Sucks.

1. Jeremiah is a moron.

2. Jeremiah is an idiot.

3. Jeremiah was never a good scout.

4. Mayock doesnt have Jeremiahs Resume but got a front office job.  Jeremiah is just a TV scout and will never be anything but.

5. Jeremiah is little B word.

 

bullfrog?

[Victory Formation]

On 6/26/2019 at 3:03 PM, formerlyofCtown said:

Top five reasons Jeremiah Sucks.

1. Jeremiah is a moron.

2. Jeremiah is an idiot.

3. Jeremiah was never a good scout.

4. Mayock doesnt have Jeremiahs Resume but got a front office job.  Jeremiah is just a TV scout and will never be anything but.

5. Jeremiah is little B word.

I've watched his dad David Jeremiah on TV, he's a preacher and a gifted preacher at that. I'm assuming Daniel is a child of God as well. I know we all love the Bills but please be more respectful in the future. Guy has achieved a lot in his life. College QB, NFL scout, tv host, etc. What have you done? 

[njbuff]

Seriously, why do people care about this stuff?

 

 

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, NewDayBills said:

I've watched his dad David Jeremiah on TV, he's a preacher and a gifted preacher at that. I'm assuming Daniel is a child of God as well. I know we all love the Bills but please be more respectful in the future. Guy has achieved a lot in his life. College QB, NFL scout, tv host, etc. What have you done? 

Plenty oh self righteous one.  And his dad is a hypocrite, that just doesn't get the gospel.  You know the kind of guy that wears a $2K suit and says he needs your money  This isnt the place for this kind of thing though.  

[Augie]

This has taken an odd and curious turn. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I know he was.  From everything Ive heard from him, he probably was not a very good one. 

 

This is a piss poor evaluation by him as usual.  The Jags D will likely not even be top 10.  The Bills D will definitely be top 5.  Denvers top 5 days are behind them.  Denver will sneak into the top 10 but not 5.

 

On what basis don't you think the Jags will be a top 10 D?

 

To me them and Chicago are the absolute shoe ins for the top 5. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

I've watched his dad David Jeremiah on TV, he's a preacher and a gifted preacher at that. I'm assuming Daniel is a child of God as well. I know we all love the Bills but please be more respectful in the future. Guy has achieved a lot in his life. College QB, NFL scout, tv host, etc. What have you done? 

 

I bet most of us work for a living....

[YoloinOhio]

I hate the Pats but don’t understand how he has the Chargers top 5 in both, but not them. I suppose Fangio to Denver is what lead him to put their D top 5, but playing KC and LAC for 4 of their games won’t help their stats. I’m not posting his rankings to complain about him not having the Bills on there. But I think I would put them in mine especially given their schedule, the additions, the 3rd year in same system, potential improvement of Edmunds in year 2, the depth in the secondary, the speed at LB, and the biggest thing, the pass D. 

 

As for Jeremiah, he’s certainly credible when it comes to the NFL. He is, however, part of the Chargers radio broadcast team. Maybe a bit biased, but it’s not like putting them top 5 in both categories is a super hot take. Still it’s not a lock. For me. 

Edited June 28, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On what basis don't you think the Jags will be a top 10 D?

 

To me them and Chicago are the absolute shoe ins for the top 5. 

They cut a DT and safety and replaced them with who.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

They cut a DT and safety and replaced them with who.

 

They have serious depth at defensive line. Inside they still have Abry Jones who started every game on their dominant 2017 defense, Dareus, the option to slide Calais Campbell inside (to start Josh Allen opposite Ngakoue outside) and 2018 first rounder Taven Bryan ready to step into a more prominent role. I have absolutely no concerns there. 

 

Safety is a fairer concern I think they will probably be looking at a camp battle to see who emerges next to Ronnie Harrison but the overall talent level of that defense is sill very high. Stacked up front, athletic playmakers at linebacker and the best corner duo in the NFL (two top 10 guys). If we are just ranking NFL defenses by talent and track record in recent years - which is all we can do until the games start - I can't keep the Jags out of my top 2 let alone top 5.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have serious depth at defensive line. Inside they still have Abry Jones who started every game on their dominant 2017 defense, Dareus, the option to slide Calais Campbell inside (to start Josh Allen opposite Ngakoue outside) and 2018 first rounder Taven Bryan ready to step into a more prominent role. I have absolutely no concerns there. 

 

Safety is a fairer concern I think they will probably be looking at a camp battle to see who emerges next to Ronnie Harrison but the overall talent level of that defense is sill very high. Stacked up front, athletic playmakers at linebacker and the best corner duo in the NFL (two top 10 guys). If we are just ranking NFL defenses by talent and track record in recent years - which is all we can do until the games start - I can't keep the Jags out of my top 2 let alone top 5.

They were #1 on paper last season.  We shall see.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

They were #1 on paper last season.  We shall see.

 

And finished top 5. That is my point. They are a lock to be a top 5 defense. They just have too much talent not to be. 

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And finished top 5. That is my point. They are a lock to be a top 5 defense. They just have too much talent not to be. 

Maybe they will.  I think they are about to implode personally. To many egos, it manifest itself more every season.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Maybe they will.  I think they are about to implode personally. To many egos, it manifest itself more every season.

 

They went 5-11 last year and were a top 5 defense. They just have so much talent on that side of the ball. Unless the players quit on the team (and I don't see that) I think the Jags defense will be a top 5 unit. I think a lot of people here hate Marrone and hate the Jags and hope the Jags collpase. But their defensive talent base is solid. They will still be bad on offense and I doubt they make the playoffs. 

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Maybe they will.  I think they are about to implode personally. To many egos, it manifest itself more every season.

Very convincing...

[formerlyofCtown]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They went 5-11 last year and were a top 5 defense. They just have so much talent on that side of the ball. Unless the players quit on the team (and I don't see that) I think the Jags defense will be a top 5 unit. I think a lot of people here hate Marrone and hate the Jags and hope the Jags collpase. But their defensive talent base is solid. They will still be bad on offense and I doubt they make the playoffs. 

They definitely have the talent.  No argument here.

47 minutes ago, mannc said:

Very convincing...

Dont need to convince you of my opinion.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

 

Dont need to convince you of my opinion.

You know you’ve got a really pathetic take when your only response is “We’ll see.”

[C.Biscuit97]

Such predictable responses from some. DJ didn’t rank us on his top 5, he’s an idiot.  Bunch of soccer moms haha.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

You know you’ve got a really pathetic take when your only response is “We’ll see.”

You know you got a real pathetic take when all you can do is criticize other posters.  

 

You might consider that I am open minded and not going to argue with someone that made valid points.  I just think they have to many big personalities and a coach who in my opinion doesnt handle adversity very well.  

Edited June 28, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Don Otreply]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:09 PM, NewDayBills said:

I've watched his dad David Jeremiah on TV, he's a preacher and a gifted preacher at that. I'm assuming Daniel is a child of God as well. I know we all love the Bills but please be more respectful in the future. Guy has achieved a lot in his life. College QB, NFL scout, tv host, etc. What have you done? 

 

Just a couple of questions;

What has his supposed religious affiliations to do with his supposed current football skill set?  How does his “assumed” faith give him a pass on being criticized for his opinion, like anyone else would be criticized in the same line of work?

 

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:09 PM, NewDayBills said:

I've watched his dad David Jeremiah on TV, he's a preacher and a gifted preacher at that. I'm assuming Daniel is a child of God as well. I know we all love the Bills but please be more respectful in the future. Guy has achieved a lot in his life. College QB, NFL scout, tv host, etc. What have you done? 

ooh, the religion card... ???

[Victory Formation]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

 

Just a couple of questions;

What has his supposed religious affiliations to do with his supposed current football skill set?  How does his “assumed” faith give him a pass on being criticized for his opinion, like anyone else would be criticized in the same line of work?

 

 

 

 

Whatever his name is, we'll call him no name #1 called DJ a moron and other profanities without giving a reason why he questioned his football expertise other than he is just a moron apparently and his Dad is also a con artist and a thief. No explanation, just disrespectful insults. And you, let's call no name #2 defended him not only once, but twice. Can you explain why?

[Doc Brown]

Just looking at the basics.  Second in ypg, 1st against the pass, 16th against the rush, 17th in ppg, 8th in 3rd down efficiency, 30th in red zone efficiency (TD's), 6th in takeaways, 13th in sack percentage per play, and 1st in number of defenders retiring at halftime.

 

These numbers show to me a strong secondary that helped boost an average D-line and LB core.  It's also what I saw on the field last year. You can make an argument for a top five D last year, but we're probably in the 6 to 10 range.  Don't know what happened to our red zone defense and we'll need to improve on that.  Obviously.

[3rdand12]

On 6/27/2019 at 2:43 PM, Clyde Smith said:

We was top 2 Defense, we only fell off a bit when Milano went down. Imagine if he played the whole entire season.

This is something i was wondering.. not sure what he was doing to affect the game exactly. but Bills did not replace his play ability(skill set) and effectiveness.
as i was reading through the thread i wondered how that could be integrated into context of the statistics for defense vs run an vs pass.
McD had to adjust i am sure : )

very good point Clyde

On 6/27/2019 at 3:41 PM, ocemur said:

 

bullfrog?

smaller

On 6/28/2019 at 7:56 AM, mannc said:

You know you’ve got a really pathetic take when your only response is “We’ll see.”

who coaches the jaguars,  name eludes me at the moment

[3rdand12]

37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Just looking at the basics.  Second in ypg, 1st against the pass, 16th against the rush, 17th in ppg, 8th in 3rd down efficiency, 30th in red zone efficiency (TD's), 6th in takeaways, 13th in sack percentage per play, and 1st in number of defenders retiring at halftime.

 

These numbers show to me a strong secondary that helped boost an average D-line and LB core.  It's also what I saw on the field last year. You can make an argument for a top five D last year, but we're probably in the 6 to 10 range.  Don't know what happened to our red zone defense and we'll need to improve on that.  Obviously.

When we watch  the games we saw some difficulties defending the run game.
 i suspect when the Linebacker group hits the field this pre season McD will be all over hitting the right gaps, better stacking and shedding and improving on the fly recognitions.

 The secondary is explosive and to be feared.will only improve.

regardless. No one gets  over the top of them do they ?

[Boca BIlls]

Wondering what the defense would be ranked of the Bills offense wasn't garbage for the whole season... And I really wonder what would be the tank if they didn't put that slop out in the first 2 games of the season.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Boca BIlls

[GreggTX]

I don't know who is supposed to be on those lists, but clearly our O isn't anywhere close. As far as our D goes, everyone talks about then like they were the 2nd best D last year. They weren't even close. They were something like 17th in points surrendered which is a much better indication of their rank. No one added on D is likely to make a big difference except maybe Oliver. We gave up so few yards is because other teams were trying to kill the clock much more than they were trying to pile up yards. I'll be surprised if we are even top 10 in points scored/surrendered on either side of the ball.

Edited June 30, 2019 by GreggTX

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Whatever his name is, we'll call him no name #1 called DJ a moron and other profanities without giving a reason why he questioned his football expertise other than he is just a moron apparently and his Dad is also a con artist and a thief. No explanation, just disrespectful insults. And you, let's call no name #2 defended him not only once, but twice. Can you explain why?

I did not defend anyone,

I asked you two questions, that you evidently chose not to reply to.

 

Go Bills!!

 

 

[ColdFront_USAF]

On 6/26/2019 at 4:03 PM, John from Riverside said:

I think it is more like what is the justification to even say that when

 

We were top 5 last year

We biult on top of what we had last year as far as improvements

Our schedule is easier

 

If your gonna say we are gonna be worse....then give me a REASON why we are gonna be worse that makes sense

 

I don't think we'll be worse than last year, but our defense was only top 5 last year if you cherry picked the right stats. As crazy as it sounds, the defense statistically benefitted from having a bad offense and an awful special teams. 

 

It makes sense when you really think about it. Our offense was one of the best at going 3 and out, at least until Josh came back from injury, and our special teams frequently failed to flip the field position no matter where the offense stalled. This all means opposing offenses didn't have to go very far to score, hence the low yards allowed. The way I see it, you can't have a top 5 defense that's ranked 30th in red zone D, as games are won on points scored, not yards gained. 

 

All that being said, I do think we will be much improved this year. Our D line is better with Ed, Milano coming back from injury, cb2 spot is better with either Johnson or Gaines, and the depth is better across the board. I'm optimistic about this year's team.