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YoloinOhio

Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 5 Offenses and Defenses for 2019

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Posted (edited)

Jags #1 D? I wonder his reasoning. They were 5th last year on the two sites I just looked at. No Pats in top 5 on either side? 

Edited by YoloinOhio

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Posted (edited)

Not sure how we aren't in the top 5 on D... We were second overall last year and improved almost across the board. 

 

The others, aside form Jax, make sense though. I think the Cowboys will come down to earth though. Broncos will probably have the best defense in the league under fangio. 

Edited by whatdrought
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Posted (edited)

Top five reasons Jeremiah Sucks.

1. Jeremiah is a moron.

2. Jeremiah is an idiot.

3. Jeremiah was never a good scout.

4. Mayock doesnt have Jeremiahs Resume but got a front office job.  Jeremiah is just a TV scout and will never be anything but.

5. Jeremiah is little B word.

 

It really isnt that confusing.  The guy isnt great at evaluating talent.

Edited by formerlyofCtown
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8 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

.We were second overall last year and improved almost across the board. .

 

Not sure that's accurate.  We were good in some areas and not so good in others.  Everyone seems to default to yardage D despite the fact that game outcomes aren't measured in yards, they're measured in points.  

 

We ranked 18th in scoring D.

30th in Red Zone D. 

We ranked 14th in TDs allowed, very average.  

Our pass-rush was problematic although our pass-D was pretty good in most indicators otherwise.  Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes, three players that predate McBeane were responsible for about half of them.  Kyle's no longer here, Lorax is old, and even Hughes is into his back-9.  

We ranked 20th in plays/point-scored, meaning that we were 20th in terms of how many plays it took on average fro opponents to score.  

Those things don't really align with a 2nd yardage D ranking.  They have to be reconciled.  

 

Again, there were some good indicators, primarily in the pass D department where McD specializes and where most of our resources have gone to, certainly the better performing draft picks and free agents.   

 

None of that has to do with "our defense being on the field more often than other teams," to the contrary in fact.  We had the 5th fewest plays run against us.  Our time-of-possession was above average.  

 

Either way, there were a number of areas where we regressed, points against stayed exactly the same in ranking, 18th, despite allowing 15 more points last year, a point/game.  

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That's ok. We'll prove it on the field.

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27 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Not sure that's accurate.  We were good in some areas and not so good in others.  Everyone seems to default to yardage D despite the fact that game outcomes aren't measured in yards, they're measured in points.  ...

except that... you know..... the official ranking for defenses has used yardage given up as the determinate since .... oh, i don't know, forever?

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I respect Daniel Jeremiah, but I respectfully disagree that our defense will not be a top 5 unit. We were #2 last year and we got substantially better. DJ knows his stuff, I just think he slightly missed the mark here. Our offense OTOH I believe could be a top 10-15 unit. We'll see.

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35 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Not sure that's accurate.  We were good in some areas and not so good in others.  Everyone seems to default to yardage D despite the fact that game outcomes aren't measured in yards, they're measured in points.  

 

We ranked 18th in scoring D.

30th in Red Zone D. 

We ranked 14th in TDs allowed, very average.  

Our pass-rush was problematic although our pass-D was pretty good in most indicators otherwise.  Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes, three players that predate McBeane were responsible for about half of them.  Kyle's no longer here, Lorax is old, and even Hughes is into his back-9.  

We ranked 20th in plays/point-scored, meaning that we were 20th in terms of how many plays it took on average fro opponents to score.  

Those things don't really align with a 2nd yardage D ranking.  They have to be reconciled.  

 

Again, there were some good indicators, primarily in the pass D department where McD specializes and where most of our resources have gone to, certainly the better performing draft picks and free agents.   

 

None of that has to do with "our defense being on the field more often than other teams," to the contrary in fact.  We had the 5th fewest plays run against us.  Our time-of-possession was above average.  

 

Either way, there were a number of areas where we regressed, points against stayed exactly the same in ranking, 18th, despite allowing 15 more points last year, a point/game.  

Agreed.  Scoring D may have been #2 but we most certainly the 2nd best defense in the nfl last year.  I’d say borderline top 10 though, better than our yards ranking suggests. Let’s just say our offense didn’t do our defense any favors for much of the season.

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24 minutes ago, Foxx said:

except that... you know..... the official ranking for defenses has used yardage given up as the determinate since .... oh, i don't know, forever?

 

Correct, for those analyzing things through a straw.  

 

:)  

 

Hence the difference between a bona fide analyst and these talking wooden-heads proliferating the national media claiming to have a clue.  

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1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Top five reasons Jeremiah Sucks.

1. Jeremiah is a moron.

2. Jeremiah is an idiot.

3. Jeremiah was never a good scout.

4. Mayock doesnt have Jeremiahs Resume but got a front office job.  Jeremiah is just a TV scout and will never be anything but.

5. Jeremiah is little B word.

 

What?

 

That's like, the opposite of every impression I've ever gotten from him.

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17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  Scoring D may have been #2 but we most certainly the 2nd best defense in the nfl last year.  I’d say borderline top 10 though, better than our yards ranking suggests. Let’s just say our offense didn’t do our defense any favors for much of the season.

 

Yeah, the defense was not the core problem.  I'm not happy with McBeane's "team building" there, but still, had we had an above-average offense and, for example, Shady with one more great season in him, I think we could have gone 10 wins.  

 

I'm not sure however that while the D didn't do the O any favors, that it also didn't factor into the play of the O much at all.  I mean in the Red Zone it really doesn't matter what the O did anywhere else and we were 30th there.  

 

As I pointed out elsewhere, not sure you caught it, but we ranked 5th in fewest plays allowed and perfectly average in Time-of-Possession.  So the D wasn't on the field for more plays or more time than the average team, and in terms of plays, it was on the field less than 27 other teams.  

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

What?

 

That's like, the opposite of every impression I've ever gotten from him.

 

I think he was trying to be facetious.  :) 

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Make him eat crow, Les Frazier.

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#2 in Defense DVOA last year according to FO.  That's much better than a "yards gven up" ranking.  

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1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Top five reasons Jeremiah Sucks.

1. Jeremiah is a moron.

2. Jeremiah is an idiot.

3. Jeremiah was never a good scout.

4. Mayock doesnt have Jeremiahs Resume but got a front office job.  Jeremiah is just a TV scout and will never be anything but.

5. Jeremiah is little B word.

 

You do realize that he actually was an NFL scout before going to television right?

 

I don’t get this hostility towards him. He’s one of the better media people out there. Bills fans are so easily offended over such nonsense.

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1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

Not sure that's accurate.  We were good in some areas and not so good in others.  Everyone seems to default to yardage D despite the fact that game outcomes aren't measured in yards, they're measured in points.  

 

We ranked 18th in scoring D.

30th in Red Zone D. 

We ranked 14th in TDs allowed, very average.  

Our pass-rush was problematic although our pass-D was pretty good in most indicators otherwise.  Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes, three players that predate McBeane were responsible for about half of them.  Kyle's no longer here, Lorax is old, and even Hughes is into his back-9.  

We ranked 20th in plays/point-scored, meaning that we were 20th in terms of how many plays it took on average fro opponents to score.  

Those things don't really align with a 2nd yardage D ranking.  They have to be reconciled.  

 

Again, there were some good indicators, primarily in the pass D department where McD specializes and where most of our resources have gone to, certainly the better performing draft picks and free agents.   

 

None of that has to do with "our defense being on the field more often than other teams," to the contrary in fact.  We had the 5th fewest plays run against us.  Our time-of-possession was above average.  

 

Either way, there were a number of areas where we regressed, points against stayed exactly the same in ranking, 18th, despite allowing 15 more points last year, a point/game.  

 

Good points. It seems to me that YPG and overall yards in the litmus most often used, but without knowing what DJ is specifically using in the OP, I suppose we're in an apples and oranges thing. 

 

Also, to counter some of your points- YPG is more valuable for overall assessment in my opinion because it's a larger sample size that can absorb outliers better. We had several games where we shat the bed horribly which greatly affected all of the metrics you are pointing to. Overall throughout the year, I think we were better than those examples. 

 

Plus, our nearly 20ypg passing advantage ahead of the second place team is, I think, a reason enough to put us in the top 5. 

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Well...he sucks so I dont care

 

...LOL....DJ is pretty good in his assessments.....so would it be tragic if he had the "D" in 6 though 10?.....as far as the offense and the amount of newness around Josh, would 11 through 15 be catastrophic?.....

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Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...LOL....DJ is pretty good in his assessments.....so would it be tragic if he had the "D" in 6 though 10?.....as far as the offense and the amount of newness around Josh, would 11 through 15 be catastrophic?.....

I think it is more like what is the justification to even say that when

 

We were top 5 last year

We biult on top of what we had last year as far as improvements

Our schedule is easier

 

If your gonna say we are gonna be worse....then give me a REASON why we are gonna be worse that makes sense

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3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it is more like what is the justification to even say that when

 

We were top 5 last year

We biult on top of what we had last year as far as improvements

Our schedule is easier

 

If your gonna say we are gonna be worse....then give me a REASON why we are gonna be worse that makes sense

 

...strictly his opinion which he does not justify......and I could care less......we gave up what, 3 or 4 200+ yard rushing games last year?.....I'd take a solid #6-10 that NEVER did that versus fallacious, statistical ranking last year which I thnk was based one on stat(correct me if I'm wrong)....

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2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good points. It seems to me that YPG and overall yards in the litmus most often used, but without knowing what DJ is specifically using in the OP, I suppose we're in an apples and oranges thing. 

 

Also, to counter some of your points- YPG is more valuable for overall assessment in my opinion because it's a larger sample size that can absorb outliers better. We had several games where we shat the bed horribly which greatly affected all of the metrics you are pointing to. Overall throughout the year, I think we were better than those examples. 

 

Plus, our nearly 20ypg passing advantage ahead of the second place team is, I think, a reason enough to put us in the top 5. 

 

I hear ya, but I have to ask, how much of our passing D was predicated upon the notion that our rushing D was very average?  (ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and in a 3-way tie for 25th in rushing TDs allowed)  Difficult to say w/o an extended analysis.  

 

Of our 6 games with the most rushing yards allowed though we lost 5 of the 6.  In those 5 losses we were outscored by an average of 32-8.  No reason for opponents to pass the ball although several teams did effectively anyway in those losses.  

 

I thought that last season was on of our least consistent ever.  Inconsistency is a sign of poor coaching.  Good coaching will consistently get whatever can be gotten out of a team, win or lose.  We were all over the map on D.  

 

The one area where there was consistency was in our losses.  Of the 11 games in which we allowed 20+ points we were 1-10.  When we allowed 17 or fewer, which were all against teams with below average scoring offenses, we were 5-0.  One of those games was with Barkley at QB, our best QB'd game all season.  

 

Average margin of defeat in those games was 18.7, which facilitates a diminished need to throw the ball for opponents.  

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3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

You do realize that he actually was an NFL scout before going to television right?

 

I don’t get this hostility towards him. He’s one of the better media people out there. Bills fans are so easily offended over such nonsense.

 

 

He said something bad about the Bills. It's proof he's not smart. He's bad. Until he says something good about the Bills. Then he'll be good again.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I hear ya, but I have to ask, how much of our passing D was predicated upon the notion that our rushing D was very average?  (ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and in a 3-way tie for 25th in rushing TDs allowed)  Difficult to say w/o an extended analysis.  

 

Of our 6 games with the most rushing yards allowed though we lost 5 of the 6.  In those 5 losses we were outscored by an average of 32-8.  No reason for opponents to pass the ball although several teams did effectively anyway in those losses.  

 

I thought that last season was on of our least consistent ever.  Inconsistency is a sign of poor coaching.  Good coaching will consistently get whatever can be gotten out of a team, win or lose.  We were all over the map on D.  

 

The one area where there was consistency was in our losses.  Of the 11 games in which we allowed 20+ points we were 1-10.  When we allowed 17 or fewer, which were all against teams with below average scoring offenses, we were 5-0.  One of those games was with Barkley at QB, our best QB'd game all season.  

 

Average margin of defeat in those games was 18.7, which facilitates a diminished need to throw the ball for opponents.  

 

 

Nah, our pass defense was genuinely excellent.

 

You're right that total yards passing has that problem, that it's dependent on how often opponents pass.

 

But passer rating rests on how good you are when they do pass, not how much they pass on you. And the Bills were 3rd in the league in defensive passer rating. DVOA also doesn't factor in how often you pass. It's how well you pass. And the Bills defensive passing DVOA was 2nd best in the league.

 

Their pass defense was top-rate..

Edited by Thurman#1
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Average number of rushing plays allowed per game, average yards per rush against, average yards per pass against, QB rating against, average yards per play given up. 

 

That’s all you need to know about what defenses are good or not.

 

When we improve our rush against metrics and red zone defense, we will be dominant. 

 

Right now, we are a very good defense. 

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