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Post Draft Vegas Season Win Over / Under Bills at 6.5

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https://twitter.com/br_betting/status/1122946814624161793

 

This is the first time in years I have been of the opinion that vegas has really botched a line. 

 

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I guess their opinion is the Bills are gonna be the Bills until they show otherwise...

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Everything you have on Browns under and Bills over

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As I understand it, setting odds is less a prediction about the teams for which odds are set, and more about Vegas' opinion of the sentiment of the betting public.  The goal here is to have roughly half the betting money come in on the under side and half on the over.  In essence, Vegas doesn't think the betting public has a real high opinion of the Bills' upcoming season, which should be no surprise.

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I know the ".5" is to make 7+ a winner and 6 or less a loser.

But how do they treat a tie in Vegas?

For instance, if Bills win 6 and tie 1 (Season Record: 6-9-1).

Would that be a push at 6.5?

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

I know the ".5" is to make 7+ a winner and 6 or less a loser.

But how do they treat a tie in Vegas?

For instance, if Bills win 6 and tie 1 (Season Record: 6-9-1).

Would that be a push at 6.5?

no. 6 is less than 6.5. its about the win total.

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I don't gamble and i'm soooo tempted to throw $$$ on the Bills over

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Just took out a 3rd mortgage. This ones gonna pay big. I just know it

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2 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

no. 6 is less than 6.5. its about the win total.

 

Yeah, that's what I figured. But I could see someone making the argument that a tie could be considered a .5 win.

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OKay.   People who gamble.  Where can I go online to bet on this.  This is an absurdly low number.  

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i feel like we did this recently.

33 minutes ago, McBean said:

Everything you have on Browns under and Bills over

i think the browns line is harder to bet than the bills.  i wouldn't be shocked if they won 10 games, but i wouldn't be shocked if they're over hyped, and lost less than 9.  on the side of it, i'd be very surprised if the bills won less than 7 games.

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

I know the ".5" is to make 7+ a winner and 6 or less a loser.

But how do they treat a tie in Vegas?

For instance, if Bills win 6 and tie 1 (Season Record: 6-9-1).

Would that be a push at 6.5?

 

Vegas almost always get the tie unless it's in a parlay.

Go Bills!

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

As I understand it, setting odds is less a prediction about the teams for which odds are set, and more about Vegas' opinion of the sentiment of the betting public.  The goal here is to have roughly half the betting money come in on the under side and half on the over.  In essence, Vegas doesn't think the betting public has a real high opinion of the Bills' upcoming season, which should be no surprise.

Not quite the case..Vegas will bet big on certain games and do what's called "fade the public" . Most people bet favorites and overs...Vegas, for the most part, bets on and wins big when the underdog and the under hit. They do the same with win totals. I do not play win totals, so not quite as tuned in to how the public is betting certain teams, but it is generally a good bet to the opposite way..except when the Pats are involved. 

21 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

OKay.   People who gamble.  Where can I go online to bet on this.  This is an absurdly low number.  

As mentioned above, i do not play win totals, but generally, it is not the simple lay $110 to win $ 100 on these things. Bills you may need to lay $160 to win $100 on the over, and $110 to win $100 on the under.

 

I use Bovada, not sure if they take win total bets, but i will go check right quick

 

This is a good quick writeup on betting win totals and where you can play

 

https://www.safestbettingsites.com/nfl-betting/nfl-season-win-totals

 

If you look at the bottom table, the Bills on that table are actually a + $105 on the over, so for $100 you bet, you get back $105...wow.

 

The under is -$125..means you need to bet $125 to win $100.

 

This says way more people betting the under...which is a good sign if you like the over...consistently fading the public you will win money!!!!

Edited by plenzmd1
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The best (for betting) is if your sitting on 6 wins come the last week of the season and the Bills are favored (ideally heavily favored).

Then you have the OPTION to hedge... can bet the same amount on the Jets getting points (let's say 7 points).

Try to "double-dip"... worst case break even.

 

Example:

  • Bet $1,000 on Bills Over 6.5 wins
  • Won 6 games going into final week vs Jets
  • Bills favored by 7 (at home) against the lowly Jets.
  • Bet $1,000 on Jets (+7)
  • Bills Win by more than 7 = PUSH on Season bets (Net $0)
  • Jets Win the game outright = PUSH on Season bets (Net $0)
  • Bills win by between 1 and 7 points = Win Both Ends ($2,000)

Would take the stress out of the last game with only upside possibility.

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Jets and SF are ridiculously over.  Glad I won 5k betting against that idiot on the Vikings game so I can roll it into this

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2 hours ago, TigerJ said:

As I understand it, setting odds is less a prediction about the teams for which odds are set, and more about Vegas' opinion of the sentiment of the betting public.  The goal here is to have roughly half the betting money come in on the under side and half on the over.  In essence, Vegas doesn't think the betting public has a real high opinion of the Bills' upcoming season, which should be no surprise.

 

I think you hit it on the head here.  Vegas doesn't care about the Bills.  They care about the line, and the money.  The general population of this country neither knows nor cares about the Bills.  They'll bet the under because we are irrelevant right now.

 

However, when we come out of the gate 4-0 or 5-1, suddenly we'll be the media darlings.  Happens every so often.  For example the year that Captain Checkdown was jackhammered by the Arizona LB and ruined our team for the year.  Who was that QB?  Stanford guy.  Bill Walsh loved him.  We were 4-0 till we went to Arizona.  Trent Edwards.  It was a Tony Conigliaro type hit.

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I'm not a betting man.  The only football bet I've placed (not including a few small wagers with friends) was on a Bills game where I thought Vegas had the line all wrong.  I lost that bet. 

 

But I'm tempted to try again.  The 6.5 over/under seems remarkably pessimistic.  Barring catastrophic injuries, I don't see how this offseason doesn't produce at least one more win.  

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The over on the Bills is the easiest money we will make in gambling this year

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2 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

The best (for betting) is if your sitting on 6 wins come the last week of the season and the Bills are favored (ideally heavily favored).

Then you have the OPTION to hedge... can bet the same amount on the Jets getting points (let's say 7 points).

Try to "double-dip"... worst case break even.

 

Example:

  • Bet $1,000 on Bills Over 6.5 wins
  • Won 6 games going into final week vs Jets
  • Bills favored by 7 (at home) against the lowly Jets.
  • Bet $1,000 on Jets (+7)
  • Bills Win by more than 7 = PUSH on Season bets (Net $0)
  • Jets Win the game outright = PUSH on Season bets (Net $0)
  • Bills win by between 1 and 7 points = Win Both Ends ($2,000)

Would take the stress out of the last game with only upside possibility.

 

I'd probably hedge $500 in that case instead of the full grand because I'd have to have a guaranteed payout to make up for the fact that I'd be vomiting for a little while after I placed the Jets bet.

 

Speaking of the Jets.  They're starting to worry me a little.    They have the best middle of the field on defense in the entire league.   Adams at safety (elite), CJ Mosley at MLB (elite) and now Quinnen Williams and Leonard Williams in the middle, both of them monsters.    I'm far less concerned with LeVeon than the way this defense is shaping up for them.  

 

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, TC in St. Louis said:

 

I think you hit it on the head here.  Vegas doesn't care about the Bills.  They care about the line, and the money.  The general population of this country neither knows nor cares about the Bills.  They'll bet the under because we are irrelevant right now.

 

However, when we come out of the gate 4-0 or 5-1, suddenly we'll be the media darlings.  Happens every so often.  For example the year that Captain Checkdown was jackhammered by the Arizona LB and ruined our team for the year.  Who was that QB?  Stanford guy.  Bill Walsh loved him.  We were 4-0 till we went to Arizona.  Trent Edwards.  It was a Tony Conigliaro type hit.

 

I disagree slightly.  If the general population doesn't know or care about the Bills - they're likely not to bet.  The people that will bet are the professionals that see a winner (either way) or the fans of that said team.    In the end - Vegas does care about the Bills and put the line where it is for a reason.  They know the norms of the bettor and who bets.  

 

My guess is they set it at 6.5 - know the majority of Bills bets will come from fans of the team and that they'll bet the over.  Again, my guess is, they see us winning less than 7 games. 

 

 

 

Edited by White Linen

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I think earlier in the off-season the Bills were placed at 6 wins. So we're still undervalued, but the public perception is that we're improving.

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Bills won 6 games last year with one offensive player who btw, sat out multiple games due to injury.

 

Again, bet all you have on the Bills over 6.5

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