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Post Draft Vegas Season Win Over / Under Bills at 6.5

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I think they should cover but I don't bet the Bills. If you're a fan, like all of us here are, youre gonna be swayed by fandom. Just stay away.

 

I have the Ravens at under 8.5. I can't see them winning 9. Their line fluctuates a decent amount.

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the Broncos under 7.5 is free money.  They have a BRUTAL schedule, and a brutal QB.

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On 4/30/2019 at 4:54 PM, LabattBlue said:

It’s amazing how this concept cannot be grasped by so many here. 

I'm pretty sure a non Bills fan sees 6.5 games as a tough choice.  Hard to be objective when its a team you follow and are emotionally involved in

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17 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

7-9 baby! It’s our happy place. 😊

 

 

...I'd bet Dopey Dickie Jauron has a "7-9" tattoo................

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43 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

I'm pretty sure a non Bills fan sees 6.5 games as a tough choice.  Hard to be objective when its a team you follow and are emotionally involved in

 

30 minutes ago, RochesterLifer said:

I don't bet, too chicken. But wow, the Bills line seems like such easy pickings. 

well, the Bills line is now at 7 wins..but standard vig to get that at -110. When it was 6.5, you had to bet $170 to win $100..difference being now at 7 wins you push, paying the vig at and taking 6.5 you win at 7 wins

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2 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

I don't bet, too chicken. But wow, the Bills line seems like such easy pickings. 

 

And they know it. That's why the payout is so slanted.

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Bills will get 6 wins and a tie for the push at 6.5

 

 

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21 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

I think they should cover but I don't bet the Bills. If you're a fan, like all of us here are, youre gonna be swayed by fandom. Just stay away.

 

I have the Ravens at under 8.5. I can't see them winning 9. Their line fluctuates a decent amount.

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

 

Yeah okay....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u

sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man !

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9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Yeah okay....

 

 

Did you read?  Apparently not.  If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 

9 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man !

65% vs the spread, money line and o/u.

 

maybe some people don’t know what the money line is

 

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4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Did you read?  Apparently not.  If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 

65% vs the spread, money line and o/u.

 

maybe some people don’t know what the money line is

 

are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350?

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350?

I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored.  65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet.  The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line.

 

my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans.  I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills.  When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game.  The only thing that matters is a W.  It’s just hard to pass up good value at times

 

edit;  I’d say the majority of my wagers against the Bills are money line bets that are -200+.  Usually covers hence the high percentage

Edited by NewEra

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1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored.  65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet.  The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line.

 

my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans.  I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills.  When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game.  The only thing that matters is a W.  It’s just hard to pass up good value at times

So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline

 

That being said, 65%  winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

 

https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/

 

So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time!

 

 

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41 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline

 

That being said, 65%  winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible

 

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

 

https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/

 

So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time!

 

 

Yeah, I’ll play favorites on the ML.  Sometimes straight bets but usually in a 2-3 teamer

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still easier money than playing perfect basic-strategy blackjack!

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Posted (edited)

I suspect in a future thread, not too far off,  “the vig” will be closely connected to @plenzmd1.  He seems to know too much about the industry, and he travels with a large band of reconnaissance personnel.  Trust them at your own risk. But have a damn good time either way! 

 

 

Edited by Augie

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2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Anyone here actually bet this?

 

I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...

I put $5000 on the over. 🤑🤑🤑

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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Anyone here actually bet this?

 

I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...

 

I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. 

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On 4/30/2019 at 8:27 AM, ddaryl said:

Just took out a 3rd mortgage. This ones gonna pay big. I just know it

 

3 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

I put $5000 on the over. 🤑🤑🤑

 

But does your wife know?

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3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Anyone here actually bet this?

 

I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...

 

I'm not a big roller and the payout wasn't worth the effort of driving to a sportsbook. But I did take +450 on the Bills making the playoffs back in August. I also took +1200 on winning the division.

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