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John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

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On 4/27/2019 at 12:31 PM, BullBuchanan said:

They just signed a Super Bowl MVP QB and have a top tier defense. If you aren't considering them at minimum better than us on paper, you're making a mistake.

 

The thing is, football games aren't played on paper

 

3-13  10-6  5-11 last 3 years

 

It's a question of what one thinks as the reason. 

-Was Fournette a 1-hit wonder who fell off a cliff?

-They had a lot of churn on OL, including losing their LT on IR to an ACL early in the season, losing a LG to FA (then trying to re-sign him and plug him back in, didn't work).  They released their RT go this year.  Was that the reason their run game fell off a cliff and Bortles took 50% more sacks/threw 30% fewer touchdowns?

 

If so, have they fixed the line?

 

Or is it just a case of a team over-performing one year, then regressing to the mean as teams got tape on their plays with Fournette?

The thing about Foles is that outside the Superbowl, he's a mixed bag at QB.  I personally maintain that his crap year with the Stl Rams wasn't his fault - it was "dysfunction junction" and the guy he had as his OC was fired midway through the season and hasn't worked as an OC since.  But it's clear Foles won't work well with any coach and any system.  He needs  guys who will work with him to keep his bad tendencies in check and maximize his strengths, as Shurmur and Musgrave and then Pederson, Reich, and DeFillipo did.

 

I do not think that Marrone and Hacket are quite the same as Shurmur or Pederson and Co. 

 

But I could be wrong.  Maybe Foles/Wentz is the new remake of Brees/Rivers and Marrone is the new Sean Payton. 

 

I'm kind of thinking "no", but could be.

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2019 at 1:31 PM, BullBuchanan said:

They just signed a Super Bowl MVP QB and have a top tier defense. If you aren't considering them at minimum better than us on paper, you're making a mistake.

 

Nick Foles is still Nick Foles.  If he wasn't still Nick Foles, he'd still be an Eagle.

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42 minutes ago, foreboding said:

That would be soooo nice.

But...I think 8 or 9 wins and a positive growth season would also be positive improvement and reason to stay the course. The team has to show they are trending up and be well coached. I like Warrow's many points-- there is a cohesiveness that I never recall at OBD--as much so or even more so than the glory years, of course, winning keeps the dogs at bay and proves the process...so let's hope that starts to occur...

 

We were at 6 wins with an awful roster. Josh Allen needs to stay healthy but we got to get to 10 wins this year. Need a jump.

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Remember week 2 of last season, the Chargers game?

 

Many people here said that McDermott & Beane were way over their heads and should be fired.

 

:nana:

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1 hour ago, john wawrow said:

 

It's my understanding the Bills were prepared to move up as high as the 7th pick if it came down to landing one of two or three players: QWiliams, Ed Oliver and possibly Hockenson. Not sure if Josh Allen was on their radar, because they expected him to go to Jacksonville.

When it got to 7 and with Hockenson and Oliver still available (and with a good feeling the Jags weren't going to pick either), there became no real need to trade up because they knew they'd land one of two players, and more than likely Oliver.

 

The scenario could have changed if not for what Oakland and the Giants did.

 

Now, if they failed in their bid to move up to 7, and missed out on one of their top-rated guys, then a trade back was likely because of the falloff grades on their board.

 

All that said, when looking at what Buffalo did in the second and third rounds, Beane continues to show his MO is to go after the player he wants as opposed to move back and risk losing out. ... This philosophy might change should Beane, at some point, desire adding more draft picks as assets. But so long as he has them, he likes to use them in all ways possible.

 

jw

 

PS: the speculation of the Bills moving all the way up to No. 3 was overblown.

a call was made, but the price was so high it proved to be a very short conversation. (actually, there were two conversations and both were short).

Fantastic stuff John!

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@john wawrow has always been a solid with his reporting of the Bills  

 

Too bad we don't see him here as often 

 

On 4/27/2019 at 11:49 AM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I know I haven't felt this good about the team in many years. sure, proof is in the pudding but the ingredients the last two years has made for what should be a successful run at the division and beyond.

 

call me impressed 

 

Can I take a gander at why?  Were his initials Tyrod Taylor?  

 

 

for your younguns   that means  “stretch one's neck to see,”

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21 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Remember week 2 of last season, the Chargers game?

Many people here said that McDermott & Beane were way over their heads and should be fired.

 

This is why I'm Bi-Polar on McDermott.

 

I see solid games where they surprise me by getting more out of less and I'm positive, feeling we're on the upward trend

I was positive after the Vikes, Titans, Texans, Dolphins, Jets, and Lions

 

I didn't think they should be fired after the Chargers game.

I did think that after the Ravens, Packers, Colts, Patriots, and Bears.

 

It may matter that for the most part, the teams on the latter list are better than the teams on the former list.

 

I'll be on the fence until I see a game where McDermott shows he can go toe-to-toe against a top coach like Belicheck or even an up-and-comer like Nagy or Reich, and win the "chess match".

 

 

41 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

We were at 6 wins with an awful roster. Josh Allen needs to stay healthy but we got to get to 10 wins this year. Need a jump.

 

At least 3 of our losses were easily winnable games.  6 were clear blowouts. 1 I'm on the fence about.

To get to 10 or 11 games, we need to take a big step where last year's blowouts are at least competitive.

 

 

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On 4/27/2019 at 6:59 AM, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

LOL many here have wanted them

both fired and were like “We never should’ve gotten rid of Doug Marrone” or”Doug Whaley was a better GM than Beane”. 😅😅😅😅😅😅

 

I read a lot of AFC East forums and there's some...familiarity with certain posters on this board from other forums. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the folks who are in the "Every single move the Bills make is the wrong one" crowd aren't actually Bills fans..

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is why I'm Bi-Polar on McDermott.

 

I see solid games where they surprise me by getting more out of less and I'm positive, feeling we're on the upward trend

I was positive after the Vikes, Titans, Texans, Dolphins, Jets, and Lions

 

I didn't think they should be fired after the Chargers game.

I did think that after the Ravens, Packers, Colts, Patriots, and Bears.

 

It may matter that for the most part, the teams on the latter list are better than the teams on the former list.

 

I'll be on the fence until I see a game where McDermott shows he can go toe-to-toe against a top coach like Belicheck or even an up-and-comer like Nagy or Reich, and win the "chess match".

 

 

 

At least 3 of our losses were easily winnable games.  6 were clear blowouts. 1 I'm on the fence about.

To get to 10 or 11 games, we need to take a big step where last year's blowouts are at least competitive.

 

 

I hear you on the blowouts,  but if I'm not mistaken Peterman was a part of most of them.  I know Josh was a part of the GB,  and the Patriots game. I don't remember who started against the Colts,  but they Mauled us. 

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is why I'm Bi-Polar on McDermott.

 

I see solid games where they surprise me by getting more out of less and I'm positive, feeling we're on the upward trend

I was positive after the Vikes, Titans, Texans, Dolphins, Jets, and Lions

 

I didn't think they should be fired after the Chargers game.

I did think that after the Ravens, Packers, Colts, Patriots, and Bears.

 

It may matter that for the most part, the teams on the latter list are better than the teams on the former list.

 

I'll be on the fence until I see a game where McDermott shows he can go toe-to-toe against a top coach like Belicheck or even an up-and-comer like Nagy or Reich, and win the "chess match".

 

 

 

At least 3 of our losses were easily winnable games.  6 were clear blowouts. 1 I'm on the fence about.

To get to 10 or 11 games, we need to take a big step where last year's blowouts are at least competitive.

 

 

Then I will ask you this, do you think that Beane and McDermott have made the correct moves this offseason to improve the team?

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20 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Then I will ask you this, do you think that Beane and McDermott have made the correct moves this offseason to improve the team?

Just my take, but I think Hapless was more referring to Coaching in games against upper-echelon teams than the roster. Pretty sure he’s O-fer vs Pats*, Bmore, Chargers. We need to see HIM step up his game in year 3.

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1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I hear you on the blowouts,  but if I'm not mistaken Peterman was a part of most of them.  I know Josh was a part of the GB,  and the Patriots game. I don't remember who started against the Colts,  but they Mauled us. 

 

Ravens: Peterman then Allen
Green Bay: Allen

Colts: Anderson

Patriots: Anderson (Peterman cameo after Anderson knocked out)

Bears: Peterman
2nd Patriots: Allen (not a blowout but never really in game either)

 

I hadn't remembered that Peterman QB'd against the Bears.  So 2 blowouts to Peterman, 2 to Anderson, 2 to Allen.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I hear you on the blowouts,  but if I'm not mistaken Peterman was a part of most of them.  I know Josh was a part of the GB,  and the Patriots game. I don't remember who started against the Colts,  but they Mauled us. 

Petetman was part of the Ravens (and Frasier calling a crap defense)

The Chargers (McD got tired of Frasier's calling a crap defense at the half).

 

Edited by ShadyBillsFan

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On 4/27/2019 at 12:02 PM, Shaw66 said:

That's a really insightful commentary. I hadn't thought about the Allen angle - acquire a legitimate franchise qb prospect without mortgaging the future.  

 

I think Beane is one talented dude.  

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

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On 4/27/2019 at 6:38 AM, BillyWhiteShows said:

Take this for what you will.  Probably one of the most reliable, informed, and well-connected Bills reporters has great things to say about what Beane and McDermott have done over the past 3 years.

 

 

 

Found jw's alt account 😂

 

But for real, jw is excellent and has been one of our most valuable posters here at TBD.

 

And it's great to finally see a GM and HC who are working in sync and have some job stability. It's about damn time the team is run like a group of professional adults.

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4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

Mostly true I guess.  Wasnt there a period of several years when the Seahawks were going deep into the playoffs, and making/winning Superbowls where they didn't a first round pick like 3 or 4 years in a row because of trades? I think they gave up one of them in the PErcy Harvin trade if I am not mistaken...didn't seem to hurt them too much...

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4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

 

The Bills spent way to much to bring in star power that under performed and Beane just got us free of that wasteful spending.   

 

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52 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Then I will ask you this, do you think that Beane and McDermott have made the correct moves this offseason to improve the team?

 

I don't know?  They tried.  They drafted some good players.  They signed a big pack of Middle Class FA OLmen so at least there will be competition.
 

I would have liked to see us sign another quality OLman to go with Morse, a true #1 WR, and a quality edge rusher, but those guys are scarce and hard to sign.  Until Josh Allen proves himself as a passing QB, top FA WR aren't going to want to sign here.

 

As I've said elsewhere, they were really in a tough spot because both the OL and the WR corps were so poor last year, but my sympathy was limited because I felt it was a self-inflicted wound.  They could have made a bigger push to retain some talent at WR and to sign some quality OL last season - there were some to be found that could have been made to fit our budget, but we tried to cheap it with Bodine.

 

I think what bothers me most is that on paper, or "by pedigree" if you will, they did make what look like serious efforts to acquire WR but the outcome was lacking, calling their player personnel evaluation at offensive skill positions into question.  They traded up to draft Zay Jones; so far he hasn't lived up to expectations for a high 2nd round guy.  They traded for Jordan Matthews, who by draft position and stats looked as though he could be as good or better than Robert-Woods (both drafted in the 2nd, both >60% catch, 40-50 ypg guys - Matthews had slightly better stats for catch % and YPG) - wrong.  They traded for Kelvin Benjamin, a former #1 pick who battled injuries and they felt had a better work ethic and was a better fit for a young zip-code-accuracy QB than Sammy Watkins - also wrong.  Then the Anquan Boldin and Corey Coleman debacles.  So I can't fault them for making what look like correct moves on paper ("pedigree"), but those moves just don't seem to be working out.

Sometimes it almost seems they're going off word of mouth, former draft position, or analytics and not actual eyeball scouting which is strange because drafting Josh Allen was most definitely an "eyeball scouting" move.

 

25 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Just my take, but I think Hapless was more referring to Coaching in games against upper-echelon teams than the roster. Pretty sure he’s O-fer vs Pats*, Bmore, Chargers. We need to see HIM step up his game in year 3.

 

Correct and agree.

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1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Mostly true I guess.  Wasnt there a period of several years when the Seahawks were going deep into the playoffs, and making/winning Superbowls where they didn't a first round pick like 3 or 4 years in a row because of trades? I think they gave up one of them in the PErcy Harvin trade if I am not mistaken...didn't seem to hurt them too much...

Exactly.  How about the Rams, who were in the Super Bowl this year.  Does it matter they "mortgaged the future" for Goff?  Or the Eagles, who "mortgaged the future" for Wentz and have already won a Super Bowl?

 

Ed Oliver is a great prospect and should be a great player.  But if I could trade him to give Allen a 10% better chance of being our franchise QB, I'd do it in a second.  That's today's NFL.

1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

The Bills spent way to much to bring in star power that under performed and Beane just got us free of that wasteful spending.   

 

Depends on how you look at it I suppose.  Dareus is a prime example.  We slashed his spending, then spent a 3rd on Phillips, signed Star to decent sized deal, and spent a 1st on Oliver to shore up the interior DL.  Are we better off?  Probably.  Was that wasteful spending?  No.

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15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ravens: Peterman then Allen
Green Bay: Allen

Colts: Anderson

Patriots: Anderson (Peterman cameo after Anderson knocked out)

Bears: Peterman
2nd Patriots: Allen (not a blowout but never really in game either)

 

I hadn't remembered that Peterman QB'd against the Bears.  So 2 blowouts to Peterman, 2 to Anderson, 2 to Allen.

 

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The thing is, football games aren't played on paper

 

3-13  10-6  5-11 last 3 years

 

It's a question of what one thinks as the reason. 

-Was Fournette a 1-hit wonder who fell off a cliff?

-They had a lot of churn on OL, including losing their LT on IR to an ACL early in the season, losing a LG to FA (then trying to re-sign him and plug him back in, didn't work).  They released their RT go this year.  Was that the reason their run game fell off a cliff and Bortles took 50% more sacks/threw 30% fewer touchdowns?

 

If so, have they fixed the line?

 

Or is it just a case of a team over-performing one year, then regressing to the mean as teams got tape on their plays with Fournette?

The thing about Foles is that outside the Superbowl, he's a mixed bag at QB.  I personally maintain that his crap year with the Stl Rams wasn't his fault - it was "dysfunction junction" and the guy he had as his OC was fired midway through the season and hasn't worked as an OC since.  But it's clear Foles won't work well with any coach and any system.  He needs  guys who will work with him to keep his bad tendencies in check and maximize his strengths, as Shurmur and Musgrave and then Pederson, Reich, and DeFillipo did.

 

I do not think that Marrone and Hacket are quite the same as Shurmur or Pederson and Co. 

 

But I could be wrong.  Maybe Foles/Wentz is the new remake of Brees/Rivers and Marrone is the new Sean Payton. 

 

I'm kind of thinking "no", but could be.

 

 

 

Just a small note, Marrone finally ditched Hackett and has hired DeFilippo as OC, who was Foles' QB coach in Philly.

 

 

Edited by DrDawkinstein

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4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Just a small note, Marrone finally ditched Hackett and has hired DeFilippo as OC, who was Foles' QB coach in Philly.

 

INTERESTing.  I somehow missed that entirely.  How did I miss that?  Wow.

 

DeFilippo, who got fired in Minny partway through the season.

 

He should certainly know how to work with Foles.  I feel a lot better about Foles' chances to succeed in Jax now, provided they've fixed their line.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

 

Fair point.  To give the Bills their props, they also did a decent job containing Tommy Boy, too.

This is the game where I was on the fence, because I couldn't make up my mind if the Pats were actually contained in the pass, or if they were just resting Brady's arm because they were frog-marching us backward down the field for close to 300 yds rushing.  We didn't look as though we could stop a nosebleed running with the ball.

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21 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

 

I remember watching the K.C. /Seattle game last year.   Wilson was throwing up these lobs (great location) and the receivers were just bringing them in like they were magnets.  I remember thinking why can’t we have that. 

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3 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Remember week 2 of last season, the Chargers game?

 

Many people here said that McDermott & Beane were way over their heads and should be fired.

 

:nana:

 

The decision to keep Peterman over McCarron was a huge blunder on both their parts.  I cannot possibly believe that McCarron's performance would have been worse than Peterman's.

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