Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Sorry you don’t like it, but the Bills Super Bowl is always the Draft.

 

Always hyping the future and making excuses for 6-win seasons. 

 

When are are we going to win 11-games Joe?

 

When are we going to have a modern NFL offense? 

 

Where are our playmakers? 

 

There's always the chiefs, buddy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.  (...)

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

Dang, lot of work there bro!

 

I agree with you that accuracy is a threshold.  I also agree with many who point out that completion percentage is not accuracy.  That said, hopefully we can agree that whatever the cause, we need to see a much higher completion % out of Allen and the Bills next season.  After years of slicing and dicing, I think in the last 20 years, to score as a "success" as an NFL QB, the completion percentage has to rise above 59% (typically that means a few years of lower and a few years >60%; there are three criteria and a YPG "floor").

I'm not sure how you're scoring "uncatchable" passes, but in general, for a pass at or behind the LOS to be a success, it's not enough for it to be a ball the RB or whoever can realistically haul in - it has to be on-point to achieve YAC.  I don't think Allen is there yet, but my biggest thing with him wasn't that he threw them inaccurately - it was that he would haul it down and take off vs. throwing those "within 10 yds" passes. 

[WideNine]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This was one of my biggest takeaways.

 

Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football.  That he's Favre-like.

 

I saw the opposite.

 

Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was.  But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not.

 

And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR.  I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising.

 

If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far.

 

Although the topic was quickly locked out... 

 

I found Chief fans arguing about Mahomes' ball placement when KB was dropping passes from him. Seems that when Mahomes gets passes near their "real" receivers they are normally caught.

 

I found it enlightening that a QB who was considered very successful was having the same issues (drops) that Allen was having trying to throw to one of the same receivers Allen was trying to throw to during the season. Also interesting the way fans were dissecting those Mahomes throws the way we do Allen's.

 

I think the glass is half-full with Allen and if we can get more options for him who can catch - the Bills will be fine. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, this is getting hilarious.  I hope Allen is good but this is cult like.  

The difference between raw QB metrics that purport to address accuracy and a detailed examination of what actually happened on a per-play basis is literally the entire point of the whole thread. If you don’t like it, that’s fine and entirely your prerogative. But misrepresenting what’s being discussed isn’t hilarious, it’s dishonest and unproductive.

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The difference between raw QB metrics that purport to address accuracy and a detailed examination of what actually happened on a per-play basis is literally the entire point of the whole thread. If you don’t like it, that’s fine and entirely your prerogative. But misrepresenting what’s being discussed isn’t hilarious, it’s dishonest and unproductive.

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

Well put.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

I believe there are some who formed a conclusion about Allen when drafted, that he would not be good.  And they then want to either twist data to meet their bias or ignore data that does not correspond.  Basically confirmation bias.  Why?  Unfortunately so they can boast and say I told you so in a chat room.

 

Everyone should understand by nowAllen has positives but also things to work on.  They should also agree he is not nearly a finished product.  And for the love of God we should all agree at long last that accuracy is not completion percentage.  Completion percentage will involve more timely reading of defenses, taking shorter routes, better receiving/catching.  And yes precise delivery of passes.

[GreggTX]

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

If you go back and read, you'll find the PFF measures are ill defined.

[ALF]

Update on Rosen

 

Cardinals QB Josh Rosen OK after car accident

 

Rosen posted a picture on Instagram of his Tesla with a massive dent in the rear driver's side door. The 22-year-old noted in the post he was "okay."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018205/article/cardinals-qb-josh-rosen-ok-after-car-accident

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, ALF said:

Update on Rosen

 

Cardinals QB Josh Rosen OK after car accident

 

Rosen posted a picture on Instagram of his Tesla with a massive dent in the rear driver's side door. The 22-year-old noted in the post he was "okay."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018205/article/cardinals-qb-josh-rosen-ok-after-car-accident

Couple feet forward of that and Rosen might not be here today - scary stuff.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

On 2/16/2019 at 7:31 PM, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

 

This is such a belligerently ignorant response.  The OP has obviously done a good deal of work, from analyzing a number of rookie quarterbacks to disputing other methodologies (including pff).  You literally dismiss all of that work without even the slightest attempt to engage.  

 

You are the worst. 

[papazoid]

you lost me at....Allen is NOT inaccurate.....lol

 

yes he is, but that weakness is offset by some strengths

 

he was ranked 32nd in passer rating and 24th in total QBR ….he's got a long ways to go.

 

he will be a solid starter for many years, he will get better, accuracy will likely prevent him from be a Top 10 QB

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, papazoid said:

you lost me at....Allen is NOT inaccurate.....lol

 

yes he is, but that weakness is offset by some strengths

 

he was ranked 32nd in passer rating and 24th in total QBR ….he's got a long ways to go.

 

he will be a solid starter for many years, he will get better, accuracy will likely prevent him from be a Top 10 QB

Here are the problems with your take that the OP, I and others have addressed repeatedly and that you seemingly choose to ignore:

 

1.  You confuse passer ratings with accuracy; they are not the same thing.

2.  You don't define accuracy, whereas the OP does in his exhaustive research of not only Allen but many other young QBs.

3.  You likely confuse accuracy and precision

4.  You show no data to support your own claim, other than rankings that do not really test accuracy. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/16/2019 at 2:31 PM, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

 

I know what PFF did.

 

I even cite it in the OP.

 

I did my own study that's been going on since season's end and covered every single pass of 7 highly regarded rookie QBs, past and present. And my own findings are simply this:

 

If Josh Allen was inaccurate as a rookie, so we're those 6 other QBs I looked at, and Rosen and Wentz (after his 1st 4 games) were very inaccurate.

Edited February 18, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[McBean]

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.

 

Regardless, I figured examining Allen's accuracy in comparison to his peers would help determine whether he truly somehow has the severe accuracy problems portrayed by the national media. I only did the 4 other rookies with Allen, not the 31 other starters. Would anyone expect Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or any of the 5 rookies to be as accurate as Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers?

They're rookies. That's why the 5 rookies are my ultimate points of comparison. And part of the point was also anecdotal. Just looking at Darnold and Allen, you see Darnold just throw some real head-scratchers that wind up being tipped or batted. These types of throws I so very rarely saw with Allen that I just didn't consider them negative throws. Darnold showed that those throws should largely be weighed negatively, so I adjusted. Methodology for all QBs were the same.
 

Rookies in the NFL are peers who have the same short offseason to work and, in the case of all 5 rookies, spent the entire offseason as presumed backups, taking 2nd and 3rd string snaps. Allen was talked about and is still talked about consistently as the rookie QB who has a serious accuracy problem, not the other guys. I wanted to test that narrative with my own eyes, so before this post reaches the TLDR category for the impatient, here were the final %s I came up with after watching every single pass of all 5 rookie QBs, arranged from best to worst.

 

UPDATE: I'm starting to go through some previous rookies, too.  Primarily I'm focusing on the "good rookies," meaning rookies who were considered as having pretty good rookie seasons.  So I started with Watson, as you can now see.

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways

1) Darnold - 79.5% (2019)
2) Allen -78.1% (2019)

3) Wentz - 77% (2016)
4) Mayfield -76.6% (2019)

5) Watson- 75.1% (2018)
6) Jackson -72.7% (2019)
7) Rosen - 71.6% (2019)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

1) Allen - 7.1% (2018)
2) Jackson -6% (2018)
3) Rosen - 5.8% (2018)
4) Darnold - 5.5% (2018)

5) Watson- 3.4% (2017)
6)) Mayfield -3.2% (2018)

7) Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

1) Wentz - 6.9% (2016)

2) Mayfield - 7.6% (2018)
3) Jackson - 8.5% (2018)
4) Allen - 8.7% (2018)
5) Rosen - 9.1% (2018)

6) Watson- 10.7% (2017)
7) Darnold - 11.2% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Sam Darnold

Total passes: 414

Catchable passes: 311

Uncatchable passes: 57

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 23

Interceptable passes: 44

 

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

Baker Mayfield

Total passes: 486

Catchable passes: 360

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 36

 

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

 

Deshaun Watson

Total passes: 204

Catchable passes: 148

Throwaway/Spikes: 7

Tipped/batted passes: 7

Interceptable passes: 21

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41

 

 

I have game by game breakdowns for every QB.

 

Like for Allen, week 16 against the Pats:

 

Catchable passes: 9 (Foster slips on one of these attempts that I thought was catchable)

Uncatchable passes:7 (One of these is a back shoulder fade to Zay that he never turns for that I marked uncatchable)

Throwaways: 3 (one of these is the near Safety Allen escaped from and flipped the ball away to the sidelines)

 

Tipped/Batted passes: 0

Interceptable passes: 2

 

 

or week 17 for Allen:

 

Catchable passes: 18

 

Uncatchable passes: 6

 

Throwaways: 2  (one of these was thrown into the ground)

 

Tipped/batted passes: 0

 

Interceptable passes: 1

 

Part of the reason I decided to go through this endeavor was because I saw this tweet 

And then seeing this:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

Kinda makes me think this is the reality

 

First off, let me explain my "methodology," so to speak...  I rewatched each "condensed" version of all of every rookie's games and made a judgment call on whether their incompletions were catchable or uncatchable.

 

That's it.  

 

No, I didn't do Coach's film, but I realize that would have been better, but also much more time consuming.  When there was a real question on a throw, gamepass has a slow motion option. This process took a few weeks to get through all 5 rookies.

 

I'm not judging ball placement, just whether the WR/TE/RB could reasonably have made a catch or not... even a great catch.  If he had a chance, I labelled it as "catchable."  If not, I labelled it as "uncatchable." 

 

Ball hits palm (or would with reasonable adjustment) = Catchable

 

Ball hits fingertips of outstretched arms or beyond = Uncatchable

 

That Clay non-catch in the EZ at the end of the Miami game is absolutely catchable because it's a catch you see NFL WRs and TEs across the league make frequently. It may not be Charles Clay catchable, but it's catchable.

 

I'm not making judgement calls on miscommunication or anything because I think that type of thing will largely even out in the end. So when I looked at the wide open Zay Jones miss in the back of the end zone in the Miami game--which we now know from post game interviews was a miscommunication where Allen assumed Jones was going to "sit" when he threw it--I labelled it as uncatchable. I saw one of those plays in Darnold's 2nd game that appears to also be a miscommunication.

So, my process is something you're obviously free to criticize, but I'm using the same process for all the rookies.

 

I tried to be as absolutely unbiased as I could be, but there's inherent subjectivity to this exercise. But do you agree that all (roughly) 35 of these passes are catchable?

 

 

 

And that's missing a good number, believe me. Remember Allen's interception in the Titans game that went right between Andre Holmes hands? Yeah... catchable... not Interceptable.

 

Now, on top of that, I also counted "throwaways" and "tipped/batted balls."

I also kept track of interceptable passes.  Each interceptable pass was also either a catchable pass, uncatchable pass, or tipped/batted ball for obvious reasons.  

I think it's important to discard throwaways when considering a QB's accuracy... and yes yes yes, I know that "ball placement is part of this equation, but that's highly highly highly subjective... much moreso than just whether a pass is catchable or not.

 

This is anecdotal, but I can tell you this, a huge number of Allen's catchable incompletions were targeting the liabilities of Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Charles Clay.

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

 

I think it's worth pointing out that passes where QB throws it to a WR and a DB steps in front to intercept it, but can't hang on, I'm counting in the category of "tipped/batted balls" along with obviously "Interceptable." Holy CRAP does Darnold throw a lot of those! These are the types of bad throws where maybe a QB just doesn't see a guy closing in that don't get intercepted, they just end up being passes defensed. This very rarely happened with Allen, but happened really frequently with Darnold.

 

The narrative seems to be that Allen succumbs to "Hero Ball" too much and takes too many risks with the football. I think there might be an argument to be made there up until he throws the football, but once Allen throws it, he appears to be the most conscientious of defenders in the realm of his intended target.

To me this idea that Allen is like Brett Favre--in terms of being a gunslinger--just doesn't hold water. Yes, he's consistently throwing farther than the other rookie QBs... actually farther than any other QB in the NFL. But he's not making a lot of risky throws. That's Darnold and Mayfield.

And while a lot of people look at those risky throws as indicative of better QB play, I'll give you these Next Gen stats of Aggressiveness %. Here's how it's defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

Looks to me like being aggressive with the football is something Josh Allen is not, and that may not be a bad thing based on the QBs accompanying him on the list.

 

The work so many stress Allen needs to do in the offseason regarding mechanics and just improving as a pocket passer is Jackson ×100. Baltimore does some brilliant stuff on offense in order to get WRs consistently pretty wide open and/or providing Jackson with just a single read passing wise. If anyone reminds me of Tebow this year, it's Jackson, and it's not even close.

 

Mayfield, like you might expect--I did--was the best passer of the bunch. His 2nd half of the year was much stronger than the 1st. Damn does he get a lot of balls batted at the line, though.

 

Rosen was pretty bad. He honestly might get the David Carr effect long term and never reach his potential largely because of the talent around him, honestly.

 

 

 

 

I'll be happy to answer any questions about my numbers, but I would encourage you to try this exercise yourself if you have those serious doubts. But if I were to ask you if you'd be happy with a QB who threw catchable footballs 78.1% of the time, would you be happy?

 

But according to Jon Ledyard, Jeremy White, and Mike Schoop, he sucks.

 

Don’t know what to believe anymore? ?

[Bangarang]

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

[ndirish1978]

Thanks for all the effort you put into this @transplantbillsfan

 

I'd like to see Josh improve dramatically in regards to his short passes, but you're right he's not as bad as people make him out to be accuracy-wise. That throwaway percentage is ungodly. Hopefully we can support Josh with an actual OL this year rather than a bunch of mannequins dressed in jerseys. 

[papazoid]

52 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

lol

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

No one is saying stats don't matter, but there is no stat that measures accuracy. That's the whole point of this thread. That his accuracy isn't as bad as people think. Not sure why so many people have a hard time with that concept?

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

It's actually a different kind of eyeball test here with regard for Allen we're talking about... a more objective one than the wildly subjective "he just looks the part."

 

That said, he looks the part, too.

 

I'm surprised you're so steadfast in your pre-draft feelings on Allen.

 

How much did you know about Allen before the draft? How much did you watch of him playing?

 

The biggest reason I did such a 180 on him in the days following the draft is because I took the time I hadn't taken before the draft researching him and watching him play as much as possible. I freely admit my feelings on Allen were almost entirely formed on analytics and history. I just didn't honestly think we'd draft him, so I didn't bother really doing a deep dive.

 

Then we did, and I was furious.

 

Obviously I got over it and understand completely the trade up to 7 to get him and feel it was warranted, so much so that I wish we just gave him the reins right away back in training camp.

 

And then the season happened and Allen so often looked like Atlas holding the weight of the offense on his shoulders. And he looked like he was throwing the ball where he wanted it to go a lot more consistently than I was reading and hearing in the national media and somewhat here.

 

And that's why I did the study. I wish skeptics like you and Thurm and Cornellius would bother trying yourself to see how wildly your numbers disagree with mine, since that's what you guys seem to assume.

[Bangarang]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

That said, he looks the part, too.

 

I'm surprised you're so steadfast in your pre-draft feelings on Allen.

 

Except....I’m not. I admittedly did not want Allen based on everything that I read analytics wise and what I watched. I’ve repeatedly said he played much better than I expected him to and I’m fairly optimistic about his future.

 

Quote

 

How much did you know about Allen before the draft? How much did you watch of him playing?

 

I read all the pre-draft stuff and watched as many games as I could. I did enough to form my own opinion on all the QB prospects expected to go high.

 

Quote

 

The biggest reason I did such a 180 on him in the days following the draft is because I took the time I hadn't taken before the draft researching him and watching him play as much as possible. I freely admit my feelings on Allen were almost entirely formed on analytics and history. I just didn't honestly think we'd draft him, so I didn't bother really doing a deep dive.

 

Then we did, and I was furious.

 

Obviously I got over it and understand completely the trade up to 7 to get him and feel it was warranted, so much so that I wish we just gave him the reins right away back in training camp.

 

And then the season happened and Allen so often looked like Atlas holding the weight of the offense on his shoulders. And he looked like he was throwing the ball where he wanted it to go a lot more consistently than I was reading and hearing in the national media and somewhat here.

 

And that's why I did the study. I wish skeptics like you and Thurm and Cornellius would bother trying yourself to see how wildly your numbers disagree with mine, since that's what you guys seem to assume.

 

I’m not as big of an Allen skeptic as you probably think I am. I’m also not on here harping on any accuracy issues.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Bangarang

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

I’m not as big of an Allen skeptic as you probably think I am. I’m also not on here harping on any accuracy issues.

 

Soooo... you just felt like chiming in with an irrelevant comment?

 

You and Foxx must be super tight.

Edited February 19, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one is saying stats don't matter, but there is no stat that measures accuracy. That's the whole point of this thread. That his accuracy isn't as bad as people think. Not sure why so many people have a hard time with that concept?

 

Equally the criticism of his accuracy pre-draft is often misunderstood. The issue I had with Josh's accuracy and I still have to an extent is not that he is inaccurate with every ball. He clearly is not. It is that the inaccuracy when it comes is wild and still, to my mind, unexplained. I know some buy the Jordan Palmer "he is overstepping" theory. I personally have looked for that and don't see it. Maybe my eye is just not trained enough that is certainly possible but to me technically his inaccurate balls still generally look no different technically to his accurate ones.

 

I compare him to someone like a Sam Darnold and I can pretty much tell you with Darnold whether the ball is going to be thrown accurately before it leaves his hand. With Allen I can't. And it is that natural inaccuracy that does concern me. It concerned me a lot on his college tape it concerns me a little less now because his legs raise the floor and take away some of the throws he would otherwise need to make more of. But it is still a concern. 

 

I am sure if any two people did the same exercise as transplant they might quibble with a few throws here and there but overall I don't dispute the value of what he has done. It just isn't really answering the questions and concerns that I and some others had. Josh has mitigated them to an extent his rookie year but they do remain. 

[Bangarang]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Soooo... you just felt like chiming in with an irrelevant comment?

 

You and Foxx must be super tight.

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. ?‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

Edited February 19, 2019 by Bangarang

[transplantbillsfan]

55 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. ?‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

[Bangarang]

40 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

 

Must be nice. Perhaps one of these days I will endure the long plane ride and make my way out there.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/48725/rg3-lamar-jackson-will-develop-into-a-more-accurate-passer

 

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- When it comes to Lamar Jackson, few have a better perspective than Robert Griffin III.

Part backup quarterback and part mentor, Griffin has watched nearly every pass that Jackson has thrown since Jackson joined the Baltimore Ravens as a first-round pick last season. Based on that, Griffin believes one of the biggest areas where Jackson will improve upon is his completion rate.

 

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

And yet you were triggered enough by my irrelevant comment that you felt the need to type out a long response. ?‍♂️

 

Whats the the weather like in Hawaii these days? We could probably use some of that sunshine in WNY

it snowed on the beach last week  

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/48725/rg3-lamar-jackson-will-develop-into-a-more-accurate-passer

 

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- When it comes to Lamar Jackson, few have a better perspective than Robert Griffin III.

Part backup quarterback and part mentor, Griffin has watched nearly every pass that Jackson has thrown since Jackson joined the Baltimore Ravens as a first-round pick last season. Based on that, Griffin believes one of the biggest areas where Jackson will improve upon is his completion rate.

 

I dunno.  Jackson has a delivery that really reminds me of Tebow.  He's going to last a lot longer than Tebow because he's just so much more athletic, but I just think there's a lot of work to be done on his upper body mechanics, which are just awkward.

 

But who knows, he's been getting away with it because of his athleticism for so long.  It could last another 5-10 years.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Equally the criticism of his accuracy pre-draft is often misunderstood. The issue I had with Josh's accuracy and I still have to an extent is not that he is inaccurate with every ball. He clearly is not. It is that the inaccuracy when it comes is wild and still, to my mind, unexplained. I know some buy the Jordan Palmer "he is overstepping" theory. I personally have looked for that and don't see it. Maybe my eye is just not trained enough that is certainly possible but to me technically his inaccurate balls still generally look no different technically to his accurate ones.

 

I compare him to someone like a Sam Darnold and I can pretty much tell you with Darnold whether the ball is going to be thrown accurately before it leaves his hand. With Allen I can't. And it is that natural inaccuracy that does concern me. It concerned me a lot on his college tape it concerns me a little less now because his legs raise the floor and take away some of the throws he would otherwise need to make more of. But it is still a concern. 

 

I am sure if any two people did the same exercise as transplant they might quibble with a few throws here and there but overall I don't dispute the value of what he has done. It just isn't really answering the questions and concerns that I and some others had. Josh has mitigated them to an extent his rookie year but they do remain. 

 

Fantastic post and observations Gunner!

 

And I think I mention this in the OP, but I'll say it here again.  Of all the 2019 rookies, Allen is definitely the one who threw the most wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws. 

 

But there really just weren't many of those, and all the other QBs had their fair share of them.

 

And after going through Wentz, I actually think Wentz had as high a percentage of those wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws as Allen.

 

 

But as I said before, does it matter if those throws happen if they're very infrequent and the vast majority of the rest of the time you're throwing a pass that can/should be caught?

[C.Biscuit97]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The last week has been cold because of a rare Kona low weather system. The other day it was only 70 decrees at noon. I actually got a cold for the first time from the weather... probably doesn't help that I surfed for 6 hours in it, though.

You live in Hawaii?  And you are doing this haha?  Props to you.  

[Success]

EJ Manuel was not an accurate passer.

 

I don’t see that in Allen.  The stats are such a small part of the story with him.  His throws don’t have that wild quality.  Give him just a little more time and I doubt we’ll still be talking about accuracy as any kind of problem.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But as I said before, does it matter if those throws happen if they're very infrequent and the vast majority of the rest of the time you're throwing a pass that can/should be caught?

 

It really depends. There is no easy answer. I have noted elswhere to me the natural inaccuracy seems to come in bunches rather than a throw here and a throw there. Josh has to reduce the occurrences of it even from where he was this past year if he wants to establish himself as a bona fide franchise QB. The next 12 months is (it goes without saying) huge for him. 

[transplantbillsfan]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It really depends. There is no easy answer. I have noted elswhere to me the natural inaccuracy seems to come in bunches rather than a throw here and a throw there. Josh has to reduce the occurrences of it even from where he was this past year if he wants to establish himself as a bona fide franchise QB. The next 12 months is (it goes without saying) huge for him. 

 

Why?

 

That sounds like a perception thing more than anything, to me.

 

This would be for a different analysis that I'm just not going to do, but if, hypothetically, my comparison between Allen and the rookies were changed to Allen and all NFL QBs and it yielded the same results--again, not saying that it would, just speaking hypothetically--finding that Allen throws pretty much the same percentage of catchable passes as all QBs across the NFL, then why would it matter that some of his misses were more wild and off target than other QBs and why would it prevent him from being a bona fide Franchise QB, despite throwing with pretty much the same accuracy?

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You live in Hawaii?  And you are doing this haha?  Props to you.  

 

Can't surf all the time.

 

My alabaster skin wouldn't be able to handle it.

 

Don't worry, I live the Hawaiian life very well 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why?

 

That sounds like a perception thing more than anything, to me.

 

This would be for a different analysis that I'm just not going to do, but if, hypothetically, my comparison between Allen and the rookies were changed to Allen and all NFL QBs and it yielded the same results--again, not saying that it would, just speaking hypothetically--finding that Allen throws pretty much the same percentage of catchable passes as all QBs across the NFL, then why would it matter that some of his misses were more wild and off target than other QBs and why would it prevent him from being a bona fide Franchise QB, despite throwing with pretty much the same accuracy?

 

 

It matters not because the inaccurate balls are more inaccurate it matters because it is unexplained inaccuracy. I can work on Sam Darnold's base, I can build better protection for Josh Rosen, I can even try and work on Jackson's mechanics (that one is a lot tougher). But if I have a Quarterback who throws inaccurate balls for unexplained reasons it makes it difficult for me to tailor my offense to that. And again you conflate completions with accuracy. Just completing balls is not always enough and we did this debate to death with Taylor. He left too many yards on the field because his completions took away opportunities for YAC. All completions are not created equal. 

 

Josh has to reduce the instances of unexplained natural inaccuracy if he wants to be a bona fide Franchise QB. He can win some games as he is now.... we have already seen that. But his 2018 performance was only an encouraging rookie campaign. If that was year 3 or 4 in the league I'd be saying it is time to move on. 

[papazoid]

 

 

Some of the accuracy issues still can be pinned on Allen; a league-high 23.7 percent of his attempts (excluding throwaways and spikes) were off target, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25998951/how-nfl-worst-quarterbacks-improve-2019

[oldmanfan]

43 minutes ago, papazoid said:

 

 

Some of the accuracy issues still can be pinned on Allen; a league-high 23.7 percent of his attempts (excluding throwaways and spikes) were off target, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25998951/how-nfl-worst-quarterbacks-improve-2019

Show me their definition of on and off target. The article you cite says nothing about that.

[papazoid]

He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus

 

LEAST:

31. Mitchell Trubisky
32. Eli Manning
33. Josh Allen
34. Josh Rosen
35. Lamar Jackson

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

 

Some of the accuracy issues still can be pinned on Allen; a league-high 23.7 percent of his attempts (excluding throwaways and spikes) were off target, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25998951/how-nfl-worst-quarterbacks-improve-2019

 

First of all, of course some of the accuracy issues can be pinned on Allen, just as they can be with absolutely any other QB in the NFL.

 

I don't have a big gripe with their number considering I had a number of 21.9%. Less than 2% of a difference is no biggie to me.

 

Completely disagree with the "league high" comment. I actually think that's irresponsible of them, especially since there seems to be a general lack of transparency as I click that link and find no path to where the other QBs rank.

 

Blindly trust that lack of transparency if you want. Or cross-check the numbers like I suggested.

 

I've rewatched Allen 3 times now.

 

I decided to cross-check my numbers rather than start on Dak.

 

I feel good about my numbers for all QBs I've listed.

Edited February 21, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, papazoid said:

He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus

 

LEAST:

31. Mitchell Trubisky
32. Eli Manning
33. Josh Allen
34. Josh Rosen
35. Lamar Jackson

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats

 

Well,I haven't looked at all QBs in the NFL, so I can't give any feedback with regard to the other NFL QBs, but it doesn't surprise me that Allen is ahead of Rosen and Jackson.