Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[Mickey]

A young QB is struggling with accuracy while playing on a team with one of the worst OL's in the league and a pack of WR's who couldn't start for a pop warner team? Gee what a surprise. 

 

BTW, your analysis might be of more value if after each quarter you summarized his good throws, great throws, and holy s**t how did he do that throws the same way you did with his "bad" throws. 

 

And in the end, lets suppose everyone reads this "analysis" and falls down at your feet to reach a consensus that Allen struggles with accuracy? What is the next step? A campaign to fire the GM? A campaign to bench Allen for Barkley? Do you think we should dump Allen and go back to square one at QB? Where are you going with this? Is this just another post from someone sore that we didn't take Rosen or Rudolph who just can't stop trying to prove they were right all along?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Mickey

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Lol wat...

 

It was a horrible decision and throw. Trying to say it was accurate and right where he wanted to put it is stupid. 

No it's not.  He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed.  But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting.  He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

[mjt328]

11 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

I mentioned this in a different thread, but I'll say it again.

 

When Josh Allen sets his feet and steps into his throws, his passes are usually right on the money.  His misses (and no doubt there are more than what is ideal) are usually due to him rushing, failing to re-set his feet, relying on just his arm to wing it, etc., etc.  The key with making Allen more accurate is not overhauling his throwing motion or footwork.  It's just getting him to be more consistent in doing it right.

 

This is MUCH DIFFERENT than someone like EJ Manuel, who never displayed good QB mechanics and always seemed to just be throwing the ball in the receiver's "general direction."  My guess is that Manuel never really learned how to be a Quarterback, and just needed too much work by the time he reached the NFL. 

 

 

[Tatonka68]

If the Bills could run the ball and got better pass blocking it would help.

[stony]

1 hour ago, Pbomb said:

Can a qb consistently throw accurate with such a bad offensive line? Can we all agree our oline is terrible and greatly affects Allen’s play negatively 

I can agree that Allen detractors think his accuracy will always be piss poor and Allen supporters will always blame his accuracy on the o-line.  The truth is somewhere in the middle.  

[Zerovoltz]

5 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I mentioned this in a different thread, but I'll say it again.

 

When Josh Allen sets his feet and steps into his throws, his passes are usually right on the money.  His misses (and no doubt there are more than what is ideal) are usually due to him rushing, failing to re-set his feet, relying on just his arm to wing it, etc., etc.  The key with making Allen more accurate is not overhauling his throwing motion or footwork.  It's just getting him to be more consistent in doing it right.

 

This is MUCH DIFFERENT than someone like EJ Manuel, who never displayed good QB mechanics and always seemed to just be throwing the ball in the receiver's "general direction."  My guess is that Manuel never really learned how to be a Quarterback, and just needed too much work by the time he reached the NFL. 

 

 

...umm....interesting take on Manual needing "too much work".....when you are in a thread talking about Josh Allen....a guy who by all accounts was ready to go day 1.

[WideNine]

8 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

 

Details yes, with more than a bit of a bias-effect.

 

I could just as easily say that the pass over the middle to Clay would have been catchable had the Miami defender not been dragging Clay backwards. See how that works? It is subjectivity lending conclusions to a preconceived bias. We all do it to a degree, you just went into "painstaking detail" doing it. Don't let it keep you up at night.

 

Also, you would benefit from watching some of the All-22 reviews if you want to get fairly knowledgeable and objective analysis of what went right or wrong with a play. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by WideNine

[Zackry00]

I think to conclude that Josh Allen isn't good is premature.  Allen needs a supporting staff around him before we can see if he's a good qb or not.  He looks like a rookie and has shown lots of positives and some negatives to this point in the season.   I wanted to see how his rookie season has compared to a rookie season of a "good qb" in Jared Goff. Goff greatly improved in his second season and many wrote him off as a bust after his first. 

 

	Year	Age	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	4QC	GWD
Goff	2016	22	7	7	0-7-0	112	205	54.6	1089	5	7	66	5.3	4.3	9.7	155.6	63.6	18.9
Allen	2018	22	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	9	75	6.3	5	12	158.8	62.8	55.1	1	2

[Bangarang]

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No it's not.  He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed.  But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting.  He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, Zackry00 said:

I think to conclude that Josh Allen isn't good is premature.  Allen needs a supporting staff around him before we can see if he's a good qb or not.  He looks like a rookie and has shown lots of positives and some negatives to this point in the season.   I wanted to see how his rookie season has compared to a rookie season of a "good qb" in Jared Goff. Goff greatly improved in his second season and many wrote him off as a bust after his first. 

 

	Year	Age	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	4QC	GWD
Goff	2016	22	7	7	0-7-0	112	205	54.6	1089	5	7	66	5.3	4.3	9.7	155.6	63.6	18.9
Allen	2018	22	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	9	75	6.3	5	12	158.8	62.8	55.1	1	2

Why are you bringing objectivity and reason into this?

 

BTW: Greetings from another Bills fan in the Raleigh area 

[One Buffalo]

We live in a world of micro-analysis.  We like to pick things apart down to the finer details and then make general conclusions.  But while there is value in looking at every throw, it isn't necessarily a good measure.  Josh is a rookie, and he is going to make bad throws... lots of them.  But so did every other rookie QB before him.  He will continue to learn and develop.  McBeane will add more complementary pieces, and we will see more progression as Josh grows with the team being built around him.  

 

He has shown enough flash and ability to make throws that few can make to warrant expectation of a bright future.  Picking apart every throw is good for him to do with coaches, to learn from.  But for me, I just need to see him progressing and trending upwards... which he is.  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

We live in a world of micro-analysis.  We like to pick things apart down to the finer details and then make general conclusions.  But while there is value in looking at every throw, it isn't necessarily a good measure.  Josh is a rookie, and he is going to make bad throws... lots of them.  But so did every other rookie QB before him.  He will continue to learn and develop.  McBeane will add more complementary pieces, and we will see more progression as Josh grows with the team being built around him.  

 

He has shown enough flash and ability to make throws that few can make to warrant expectation of a bright future.  Picking apart every throw is good for him to do with coaches, to learn from.  But for me, I just need to see him progressing and trending upwards... which he is.  

 

This is the type of post that is just so right it should end the thread. 

[WideNine]

22 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

 

Agree with most of this - bad decisions happen, and happen more often in the face of pressure.

 

There are instances where a throw is accurate, but nearly picked off. Josh had one where he locked onto his favorite receiver Foster, never noted the safety help the corners had over the top, and threw what may have been an accurate pass to Foster, but was nearly picked off by the safety he dragged in with his eyes.

 

Rookie mistake of not reading coverage and not looking off the safety. A lot of folks thought that was a pass intended for McKenzie, but he was in the slot, Josh never looked his way, and I think McKenzie just ran his route a bit too deep and tried to make a play on a pass that was not intended for him.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

At some point you need to stop looking for the elusive, objective “it” factor and just decide that your QB has enough tools to build around and win games with.

 

That’s really it.

[mjt328]

32 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

...umm....interesting take on Manual needing "too much work".....when you are in a thread talking about Josh Allen....a guy who by all accounts was ready to go day 1.

 

I think you are missing my point.

Yes.  Both Manuel and Allen were drafted with bad problems in their throwing mechanics, and the HOPE we could fix their accuracy problems.  Coming out of college, there were a lot of similarities in that department.

 

As time went along, it became clear that Manuel's problem was too deep rooted to fix.  His throwing motion was already set, and it wasn't something he could re-learn from the ground-up.  In contrast, we are already seeing improvements in Allen that NEVER happened with our last 1st Round QB.  From college, to the Senior Bowl, to training camp/preseason, to Week 2, to now.  There is growth.  Yes, he's still missing lots of throws.  But the GOOD throws are there multiple times each week.  Which tells you he CAN get better.

 

What happens from here is anyone's guess.  Maybe Allen hits a wall. 

But maybe he continues to improve.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

Nice effort to do this.  A couple of points:

 

*  As others have noted you missed the Clay drop in the 1st quarter.

 

*  I'm not sure how to handle throwaways as they are not necessarily bad passes.  In fact I think we all can agree that it would have been good if he threw that first INT pass away.

 

*  Down & distance also have a big impact on passing accuracy.  Unlike most Bill's QB's over the last 20 years Allen actually tries to throw the ball PAST the 1st down marker on 2nd & 3rd and long. 

 

*  You state that throwing 7 inaccurate passes in 36 attempts is terrible by NFL standards.  But is that true?  Short of going back and charting a couple of random QB's who threw between 35 - 40 passes how do we know this?  In my experience watching a typical NFL game in which a QB throws over 35 passes I typically see what I would call 5 - 10 bad throws.  The other night in the Rams/Bears game featuring two of the better QB's in the league I believe that if we chartered their every throw both would have had bad throw percentages in the 20% range.   

[colin]

so i agree that JA17 has accuracy issues.  he's not like alex smith who just can't throw a dime, he just throws bad balls from time to time.

 

that said, how many times has he avoided a sure sack but sprinting away from pass rushers or stiff arming them?  he did it at least two times vs the jets (with the sprint out and the stiff arm, and i think about 6).  

 

most good qbs make the majority of their completions on easy peasy passes.  now allen certainly misses some of them due to running to early or not seeing the guy in time, but as a team we set our qb (any of them) up to fail more than anyone else.  i remember a big completion with 20 yards to go a couple times vs the jets.  how do we keep doing that?  the constant penalties on O and WR drops (combined with how terrible our run game has been) makes me marvel that we are even in games, and that's totally on the back of Josh Allen's ability to just flat out make plays that no one else is doing.

 

one single star WR would change this whole offense, let alone better protection.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Sorry to quote myself, but you can also look at Oakland before and after the trade.

 

Carr’s percentage has dropped over 5% in the games without Cooperand his yards passing per game has also decreased with the big change being the loss 1 single WR within the season.

Brady has had the same thing happen when Gronk and/or Edelman are out and Rodgers had the same issue when Nelson got hurt that one year...

[oldmanfan]

41 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Why are you trying so hard to polish this turd? It was a horrible throw. It happens. Accept it and move on. 

 

Accuracy and precision on a throw that was picked off is crazy talk.

 

 

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

I actually thought he might have been trying to throw it out of bounds and the defender pushed him while he was in midair which turned his body and his arm and it ended up in the field of play instead of out of bounds...at the very least he made the throw worse that what it probably would have been if he wasn't hit...

[jrober38]

Allen is still the same guy he was at Wyoming in terms of pros and cons. 

 

Huge arm, elite mobility, elite strength and size makes him tough to tackle, but he misses easy throws, forces too many passes into dangerous situations and doesn't complete enough passes. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Here is one take away you can take from all the work put into this thread.  Look at the first Quarter where Allen drove the team down the field with accurate short quick routes (as well as a long run).  He was accurate and had some rhythm.   Then Daboll reverts back to a longer passing tree, and while Allen hits some big gainers, the routes take longer to develop and the line has to block longer.  Bottom line:  you can see where the offensive game plan shift away from quick hitters to longer developing routes - thus a decrease in completion percentage.  If Daboll can stay disciplined in his play calling, Josh's completion percentage will improve dramatically in my opinion.   I understand the temptation with the arm talent Josh has to call a downfield passing game, but the team is not quite built for that yet, and Josh needs to continue to refine his short game.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[WideNine]

44 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I think you are missing my point.

Yes.  Both Manuel and Allen were drafted with bad problems in their throwing mechanics, and the HOPE we could fix their accuracy problems.  Coming out of college, there were a lot of similarities in that department.

 

As time went along, it became clear that Manuel's problem was too deep rooted to fix.  His throwing motion was already set, and it wasn't something he could re-learn from the ground-up.  In contrast, we are already seeing improvements in Allen that NEVER happened with our last 1st Round QB.  From college, to the Senior Bowl, to training camp/preseason, to Week 2, to now.  There is growth.  Yes, he's still missing lots of throws.  But the GOOD throws are there multiple times each week.  Which tells you he CAN get better.

 

What happens from here is anyone's guess.  Maybe Allen hits a wall. 

But maybe he continues to improve.

 

 

Off topic a bit, but I admit I was for a time a defender of EJ Manuel.

 

It took running into a colleague at work who was friends and had family ties with a bunch of NFL players (mostly Saints) than held an off-season training camp near New Orleans that a few Bills attended. Usually I take with a grain of salt the "I know a guy that knows a guy stuff", but he had the pictures of him hanging with the players and such that lent some credibility and I was able to confirm some of the Bills he mentioned were at the camp - it was enough.

 

Either way, when I was talking football with him and began making excuses for EJ he told me that the Bills players he spoke to said that EJ just did not have it upstairs and could not memorize/execute a playbook no matter how much the coaches dumbed it down, and that even the plays he did get they usually made it so he only had to read one half of the field. They did not think his issues were coachable.

 

It was enough to help me finally fall off the bandwagon - I don't think Allen has those same issues, just not enough NFL-level coaching and experience as he seems to execute Daboll's plays without too much miscommunication or ugly breakdowns like expecting to hand it off and having no one there, or standing like a statue till he is sacked, etc.

 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Allen is still the same guy he was at Wyoming in terms of pros and cons. 

 

Huge arm, elite mobility, elite strength and size makes him tough to tackle, but he misses easy throws, forces too many passes into dangerous situations and doesn't complete enough passes. 

 

...and if you watched any of Wyoming's games, you will notice their offense was a downfield attack - similar to what he is operating in now.  

 

[Bangarang]

37 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

 

I honestly can’t believe you’re still trying to make this argument. You do understand that calling a throw that was intercepted accurate and precise is next level stupid right?

 

What are you even talking about with me trying to compare apples to oranges? I’m literally only talking about 1 bad throw Allen made. I’m not comparing him or that throw to anyone else.

[formerlyofCtown]

11 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

Do you even watch football games or do you just look at the stats in the morning paper.

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

...and if you watched any of Wyoming's games, you will notice their offense was a downfield attack - similar to what he is operating in now.  

 

 

Sure.

 

That doesn't change anything I said.

[John from Riverside]

13 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

While I appreciate the work....and I actually agree that I dont want to put a strong emphasis on his running because QBs have to make plays throwing the ball...I feel that you numbers dont accurately refect how accurate or inaccurate Josh is......

 

I will say that the 3 turnovers he had in this game diminish the good work he actually did on the field......but there are things to consider like how in the first half of this game how many 3rd down completions for 1st down he actually made....

 

This while getting hit on nearly EVERY play.....and literally no running game to help him.

 

But hey....at least he didnt have 2 touchdown passes dropped like the previous game.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Sure.

 

That doesn't change anything I said.

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

[dakrider]

11 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

pretty amazing you can pick out which Quarterbacks will win SB's!  LOL

10 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

Damn, kid plays 8 games with one of the worst supporting casts I have ever seen and you already decide he wont win any super bowls.

Allen even against Jets looked better than Russell Wilson tonight (he has a superbowl - I also love RW so its not a stab at him)... what about Flacco? Dilfer? Kapernik even went to a super bowl lol. Goff was pretty bad this sunday, will he never win a SB?

The problem is all QB's have misses. A lot of QB's have WR's who will make a great catch for them to bail them out of a crappy throw. I dont know if its because we are so used to seeing Brady or what, but even the good QB's dont hit every throw with 100% accuracy... I just watched the Monday night game. RW3 and Cousins both looked worse than Allen to me (at least this week) - missing reads and inaccurate throws. Both are considered good QB's, both also had their best WR's laying out or making amazing catches to bail out their QB.

 

A lot of people point to Darnold looking so much  better this sunday. Darnold looked good in his last drive - ill give him that for sure. But for some reason we forget Darnold had just as crappy of an INT to Edmunds, and should have thrown a second... but Levi Wallace has been hanging around Zay Jones too much. If Levi Wallace makes that catch, and/or Darnold doesnt run behind our line for 12 seconds to throw a TD, how does the narrative change between Allen and Darnold?

 

If Allen played like that 10-20 with 72 yards, including that terrible interception, he would be getting skewered on here.   

 

Also, did you see that great catch by Vikings Diggs?  It was not a prefect pass by any means but the receiver beat his defender who was draped all over him.  
The Receivers have to make great plays too! 

Edited December 11, 2018 by dakrider

[jrober38]

14 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

 

I think the low completion percentage is a product of a couple missed dump offs each game. He had 3-4 easy throws on Sunday that his receivers couldn't catch because the ball was poorly thrown. Complete those gimmes and his completion percentage would be above 60%. It's an issue Allen has always had; making the impossible throws but missing a couple gimme throws every game. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Bangarang]

11 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

 

Only 7 of Allen’s 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

[WideNine]

17 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

 

Were you trying to be funny - because this is some funny "expert" s##t - like you stayed at a Holiday Inn the other night kind of expertise.

 

Poor Josh, cannot eat his cereal without missing his mouth with the spoon due to this horrible affliction.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by WideNine

[oldmanfan]

30 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I honestly can’t believe you’re still trying to make this argument. You do understand that calling a throw that was intercepted accurate and precise is next level stupid right?

 

What are you even talking about with me trying to compare apples to oranges? I’m literally only talking about 1 bad throw Allen made. I’m not comparing him or that throw to anyone else.

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making.  Apples and oranges.  The decision to make the throw was dumb.  Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate.  Accurate but stupid.

 

Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route.  Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride.  But a poor decision.

 

This isn't that hard to figure out.

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think the low completion percentage is a product of a couple missed dump offs each game. He had 3-4 easy throws on Sunday that his receivers couldn't catch. Complete those gimmes and his completion percentage would be above 60%. It's an issue Allen has always had, making the impossible throws but missing a couple gimme throws every game. 

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making.  Apples and oranges.  The decision to make the throw was dumb.  Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate.  Accurate but stupid.

 

Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route.  Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride.  But a poor decision.

 

This isn't that hard to figure out.

 

Great, so we can pretty much pretend Allen will never have a bad or inaccurate throw ever since we can just assume he threw it exactly where he wanted. What a legend. ?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[LSHMEAB]

20 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

 

Why do you continue to ignore that every QB in the NFL has receivers who drop the ball?

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

 

Lack of production????  Apparently you base everything on college stats.  Kid took a dreadful 2-8 team in 2015 to two straight bowl games in 2016 and 2017.  By your standard; Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, and David Klinger should have been NFL Hall of Famers.  

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

 

I looked it up, and as usual there's nothing remotely factual about your claim.

 

The Bills pass catchers as a team officially have 15 drops the entire season. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

Not if his targets sucked....which they did