Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[LSHMEAB]

39 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Lack of production????  Apparently you base everything on college stats.  Kid took a dreadful 2-8 team in 2015 to two straight bowl games in 2016 and 2017.  By your standard; Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, and David Klinger should have been NFL Hall of Famers.  

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Edited December 11, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[PolishPrince]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Only 7 of Allen’s 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

Odd considering before the Jets game Allen was leading the league in Air yards per pass... but yeah he is a checkdown masta

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

Odd considering before the Jets game Allen was leading the league in Air yards per pass... but yeah he is a checkdown masta

 

1. I’m only referring to the attempts from the last game. 

 

2. I never called him a check down master so I’m not sure where that nonsense is coming from

[John from Riverside]

10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

I think overall this class may end up being historically overrated.

 

Based on potential, Mayfield is the only guy I'd probably take over Allen. That being said, the Wyoming completion percentage excuse would carry a lot more weight had he been more prolific.

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

 

This isn't in line with reality. The issue with Allen is that he struggles with the gimme passes.

 

He's great at the hard throws that few people can make, but misses too many easy ones. 

 

Putting more of them in the playbook at Wyoming wouldn't have helped, because those are the throws he struggles with the most. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Why do you continue to ignore that every QB in the NFL has receivers who drop the ball?

 

Go ahead and name the nfl teams that have worse receivers than the Buffalo Bills.   

 

 

[sunshynman]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Why are you bringing objectivity and reason into this?

 

BTW: Greetings from another Bills fan in the Raleigh area 

 

Logic, Right!

 

p.s. Apex, in the house. If your driving around Beltline and see a black Ridgeline pickup with silver charging Buffalo taking up the back window give me the BEEP BEEP BEEPBEEPBEEP! In the Let's go Buffalo melody. Or you may have given me the GO BILL's shout as I typically have my Bills gear on if I'm out and about! 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't in line with reality. The issue with Allen is that he struggles with the gimme passes.

 

He's great at the hard throws that few people can make, but struggles with the easy one. 

 

Putting more of them in the playbook at Wyoming wouldn't have helped, because those are the throws he struggles with the most. 

He was doing quite will with the short game in this past game against the jets in the 1st half....the numbers bear that out.

 

For some reason we started going vertical in the second half of the game.

 

Its not that he cant do it......it was not part of their scheme.

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Perhaps the reason for 1800 yds is the fact he only attempted 270 passes. Counter that with Rosen, who had 452 attempts for 3700 yards last year.

 

However, in 2016, Allen had 373 attempts for 3200, while Rosen had 231 attempts for 1900 yds.

 

Funny how that goes...

[jrober38]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

He was doing quite will with the short game in this past game against the jets in the 1st half....the numbers bear that out.

 

For some reason we started going vertical in the second half of the game.

 

Its not that he cant do it......it was not part of their scheme.

 

Again, this isn't really true.

 

At halftime Allen was 9 of 18 for 95 yards passing (5.3 YPA), with a terrible interception. 

 

His first half passing was no better than the second. He just ran it a lot better when he scrambled. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

So over 80% of his passes were perfect? NICE!! 

 

Seriously though, buy/draft a top tier o line then let’s see where he is after a full off season. 

 

Im not even as worried about WRs because he been succeeding with guys like Robert Foster.

 

just imagine what a couple top 30 or 40 nfl FA WRs look like in this offense. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Where is the "beautiful play action fake. Throws over the middle to wipe open Clay, who drops an easy 20-25 yard gain". 

Omitted that play? 

[DuckyBoys]

11 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

I re-watched every throw three times now.  Right off the bat  I see 6 drops and 2 throw away's  At least two more would be throw away's with the average qb but Josh gets away from heavy pressure to at least attempt a pass late into coverage.  He also attempts several more difficult throws past the stick, some which are completions some are not instead of taking the check down for little or no gain.  He is hurting his stats by trying to make the play for the bigger gain or to get the first down.   Once the O line gets better and they get receivers who can win at least some of the time the offense will look much better.  Right now the kid is trying to make a gourmet meal over a dim fire with a rusty pan and spam and stale bread.

[jrober38]

13 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Go ahead and name the nfl teams that have worse receivers than the Buffalo Bills.   

 

 

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Only 7 of The Check Down Master's 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

 

34 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

2. I never called him a check down master so I’m not sure where that nonsense is coming from

 

It's right there!!

[John from Riverside]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

No No No

[DuckyBoys]

Personally I'd like to see McDermott go 100% into developing Josh as his main focus for the game plan.  Stop play calling like  a mistake ruins the season. Let him throw down field on early downs and let him make the throw when needed to  The stupid Philly special pissed me off  Save that crap for play off games or at least a meaningful game where nothing is working

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

No No No

 

Who do they have that is better than anyone we have? 

[John from Riverside]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Perhaps the reason for 1800 yds is the fact he only attempted 270 passes. Counter that with Rosen, who had 452 attempts for 3700 yards last year.

 

However, in 2016, Allen had 373 attempts for 3200, while Rosen had 231 attempts for 1900 yds.

 

Funny how that goes...

Thank you for posting this.....I was looking it up to make sure my numbers were straight.....

 

It is not like Allen had no numbers in his college career.......everyone wants to look at that last year where there was NO draftable talent on that team on offense besides him

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Who do they have that is better than anyone we have? 

Arizona has better and you know it

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Great, so we can pretty much pretend Allen will never have a bad or inaccurate throw ever since we can just assume he threw it exactly where he wanted. What a legend. ?

You are being deliberately obtuse now.  Of course he missed some throws.  I outlined the ones I thought he missed earlier.  

 

You don't understand the difference between ooor throws and poor decisions.  It's a simple concept.

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Why do you continue to ignore that every QB in the NFL has receivers who drop the ball?

Why do you ignore that it may happen more frequently with a poorer receiver corps?

[DuckyBoys]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

No No No

Agreed, 49ers have a dynamic  stud TE, better rbs and sadly Goodwin and Garcon are better than what we have

Cardinals is debatable but I'd still rather have the younger David Johnson and old man Fitz over what we have

Raiders pretty close too but I like Jared Cook

[oldmanfan]

52 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I looked it up, and as usual there's nothing remotely factual about your claim.

 

The Bills pass catchers as a team officially have 15 drops the entire season. 

Sunday the drops would put him at 60%.  I already showed you the math earlier this week , but you prefer to think your supposed understanding of QB play trumps the actual numbers.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Why do you ignore that it may happen more frequently with a poorer receiver corps?

 

It doesn't happen more frequently.

 

The Bills pass catchers have dropped 15 passes all season, and the NFL average is like 13. 

 

You make it sound like our guys are dropping 4-5 passes a game. That's obviously not even remotely true. 

[dave mcbride]

All of the rookie QBs have bad accuracy stats except for Mayfield, who so far is leagues better than all of them. Mayfield is at 64.4, Lamar Jackson is 58.4, Darnold is at 55. 9, Rosen is at 55.4, and Allen is at 52.4. Allen's are the worst, partly because he's only hit 60 percent accuracy once this season (v. Minnesota). He can be pin-point accurate, but he misses badly way too much. He has two issues. The first is the most important: consistency. Lack of consistency is what brings many quarterbacks down. It's been an issue in college and this season. He is young, but it's something to worry about. The second, which many aren't raising, is velocity. That throw to Zay Jones in the second half against the Jets was simply thrown too hard. It may have looked like an easy catch because it hit him in the chest, but that ball was as hard as I've seen a ball throw in some time, and it arrived right after Jones turned around. It wasn't an easy catch at all. He needs to get a LOT better on touch, which is something Darnold clearly has. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, DuckyBoys said:

Agreed, 49ers have a dynamic  stud TE, better rbs and sadly Goodwin and Garcon are better than what we have

Cardinals is debatable but I'd still rather have the younger David Johnson and old man Fitz over what we have

Raiders pretty close too but I like Jared Cook

 

The question had nothing to do with tight ends. 

 

If it had, I'd agree. 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

The question had nothing to do with tight ends. 

 

If it had, I'd agree. 

?

 

Tight ends are not pass catcher's?  

[Bangarang]

11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

 

It's right there!!

 

Of course!

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Sunday the drops would put him at 60%.  I already showed you the math earlier this week , but you prefer to think your supposed understanding of QB play trumps the actual numbers.

Some of those drops happen because of a lack of touch on his part. I'm not saying our receivers are a good group, but the rocket velocity is an issue that will produce some drops. Of course,  it also prevents INTs, which is the positive side and not to be discounted. Either way, though, there are going to be more velocity-related incompletions for the Bills than any other team going forward unless he gets better on touch. 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Sunday the drops would put him at 60%.  I already showed you the math earlier this week , but you prefer to think your supposed understanding of QB play trumps the actual numbers.

 

Do you have a link to how many official drops there actually were?

 

I highly doubt there were 4 in one game and only 15 for the entire season. 

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

?

 

Tight ends are not pass catcher's?  

 

The question said "receivers". 

 

If you're talking about all pass catchers, I agree that the Bills are the worst. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[John from Riverside]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Some of those drops happen because of a lack of touch on his part. I'm not saying our receivers are a good group, but the rocket velocity is an issue that will produce some drops. Of course,  it also prevents INTs, which is the positive side and not to be discounted. Either way, though, there are going to be more velocity-related incompletions for the Bills than any other team going forward unless he gets better on touch. 

God this is such horse *****

 

If a ball hits a pass catcher in both hands THEY SHOULD CATCH IT

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Do you have a link to how many official drops there actually were?

 

I highly doubt there were 4 in one game and only 15 for the entire season. 

 

The question said "receivers". 

Jesus you are straw manning this arguement.....it is so obvious

[dave mcbride]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

God this is such horse *****

 

If a ball hits a pass catcher in both hands THEY SHOULD CATCH IT

Dude. Think. Seriously. Don't be such a homer. It's frustrating reading these posts. When Elway came into the league, he had a ton of velocity-related incompletions simply because he threw it too hard. He had to learn. Allen throws harder than Elway. 

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

All of the rookie QBs have bad accuracy stats except for Mayfield, who so far is leagues better than all of them. Mayfield is at 64.4, Lamar Jackson is 58.4, Darnold is at 55. 9, Rosen is at 55.4, and Allen is at 52.4. Allen's are the worst, partly because he's only hit 60 percent accuracy once this season (v. Minnesota). He can be pin-point accurate, but he misses badly way too much. He has two issues. The first is the most important: consistency. Lack of consistency is what brings many quarterbacks down. It's been an issue in college and this season. He is young, but it's something to worry about. The second, which many aren't raising, is velocity. That throw to Zay Jones in the second half against the Jets was simply thrown too hard. It may have looked like an easy catch because it hit him in the chest, but that ball was as hard as I've seen a ball throw in some time, and it arrived right after Jones turned around. It wasn't an easy catch at all. He needs to get a LOT better on touch, which is something Darnold clearly has. 

I disagree get the ball outside the numbers as quick as possible.  Seperation is there, the ball gets to him with time to gather and make a move to break a tackle.  If he we are debating If he is throwing the ball too hard on a curl Buffalo needs better Wrs outside.  

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Dude. Think. Seriously. Don't be such a homer. It's frustrating reading these posts. When Elway came into the league, he had a ton of velocity-related incompletions simply because he threw it too hard. He had to learn. Allen throws harder than Elway. 

Im not letting a WR off the hook that does not catch a ball that hits them in both hands

 

This is what they get paid to do

[Bangarang]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You are being deliberately obtuse now.  Of course he missed some throws.  I outlined the ones I thought he missed earlier.  

 

You don't understand the difference between ooor throws and poor decisions.  It's a simple concept.

 

Right, Allen made a great and precise throw. It was to the wrong team but man what a display of accuracy. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

It doesn't happen more frequently.

 

The Bills pass catchers have dropped 15 passes all season, and the NFL average is like 13. 

 

You make it sound like our guys are dropping 4-5 passes a game. That's obviously not even remotely true. 

Watch last game.  Three at least.  Was even worse when Benjamin was short arming everything.

 

The difference between you and I is one of objectivity.  I freely acknowledge Allen has a ways to go.  He needs to continue working on his shorter passes as an example.  But I also see the positives, and I understand the variables that account for this completion percentage stuff.  

 

You on the other hand made up your mind the day he was drafted he would not be good, and you either twist data to reach a preconceived conclusion or even worse deliberately misuse things to do the same.  Your take on the throw to Clay over the middle Sunday was the most classic of many examples.  Hit a guy in the hands in stride but yet you cling to the bizarre notion that somehow Allen was at fault.

 

I mention this a lot but you wanted to trade an entire draft for Jamie's Winston.  I think that calls into serious question your opinion on NFL quarterbacking in general.  And with Allen it is exacerbated by your desire to be right vs. the desire to have a long term answer for QB.

 

Allen is a rookie with8 games under his belt.  He is nowhere near a finished product.  Quit treating him like he is.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im not letting a WR off the hook that does not catch a ball that hits them in both hands

 

This is what they get paid to do

You're asking WRs to turn around and catch what was likely a 65+ mph throw. It is not the same as catching, say, a Brady throw. Will the WR catch it sometimes? Yes. But simple logic will tell you that it's going to result in some incompletions, regardless of the quality of the wideout. 

 

Allen literally has the strongest arm in the history of the league. His high velocity throws aren't normal. It can certainly be a good thing, but it's also going to result in drops.

Edited December 11, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Magox]

I got to see that throw again to Clay and initially I thought it was a knee to thigh high pass.  I was wrong, it was a waist level throw right in stride.

 

Another huge drop by Clay and by the looks of it there was no one in sight that could have been at a bare minimum a 30 yard gainer potentially taking it to the house for a TD.

 

Allen is going to have some serious stats once he gets an O line and some other receivers who can actually make some plays.

 

In regards to the several errrrr... Bills fans who have nothing better to do than critique Allen at every turn and not have the wherewithal to recognize that he is showing franchise QB level talent, well I suppose they will come around sometime next year.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

You're asking WRs to turn around and catch what was likely a 65+ mph throw. It is not the same as catching, say, a Brady throw. Will the WR catch it sometimes? Yes. But simple logic will tell you that it's going to result in some incompletions, regardless of the quality of the wideout. 

Lets upgrade them and find out

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Some of those drops happen because of a lack of touch on his part. I'm not saying our receivers are a good group, but the rocket velocity is an issue that will produce some drops. Of course,  it also prevents INTs, which is the positive side and not to be discounted. Either way, though, there are going to be more velocity-related incompletions for the Bills than any other team going forward unless he gets better on touch. 

I think we all agree he needs to develop more touch for some throws.