Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous

[Midwest1981]

I'm not saying things are looking up as Bills fans right now- I can't pretend I have the most bullish outlook either.  But I was thinking a little more deeply about our situation this week and realized that even if worst-case outcomes emerge the next 1.5 seasons (Allen can't stay healthy or doesn't show improve, McBeane still can't figure out offensive personnel, 2019 FA is a swing and miss, etc.)... there's some reason to take heart and be "hopeful" (dangerous, self-injurious concept as a Bills fan, admittedly):

 

1) Rightly or wrongly, Buffalo won't be taking a QB high in this April's draft.  For a team that could- or should- replace half its starting roster, that means (at this rate) adding a top 5 1st-rounder, top 35-38 2nd-rounder, and a top-70 3rd-rounder, plus potentially seven other selections, on non-QB positions (maybe a mid-rounder is spent on developing a backup).  Our total draft capital might not make the most appreciable impact as 10 total picks suggest since seven are day 3 picks.  But armed with an early 1st, 2nd, & 3rd... that COULD make a big difference.

 

And if Allen fails will also probably equip his successor with more surrounding talent than the talent-bereft situation Allen finds himself surrounded by now.  What might contribute to Allen's downfall, if it happens, could aid the chances of success with who follows, since our draft capital WON'T be spent on a QB.

 

2) A lot of the talk lately related to the $85 million we'll ultimately have to spend in FA this year has been about downplaying- or pooh-poohing it- saying, "Who wants to come to offensively inept Buffalo, anyway!?!?" or because the projected class looks more diluted than most years.

 

But the bottom line is that the Bills, even if they go on a legitimate spending spree, can't hope to spend more than half that total this offseason, anyway.  What isn't spent can and will be rolled over into 2020.  And while we're "only" third in projected cap space this March (behind the Jets and Colts)... the Bills presently have the most- and a whopping- $131.6 million dollars in cap space in 2020.  Even the most pessimistic poster can't deny that could have a positive effect.

 

3) I haven't given up on Allen & have been encouraged by a couple of aspects of play... while also engendering pessimism because of other aspects.  But whether he DOES or DOESN'T pan out... we won't be waiting 3-4 years to find out.  McBeane's fate is tied to Allen's and if next year we're still at a point where we score 80 points in 7 games while some other teams are scoring 80 in 7 quarters... they're gone.

 

And that ties in nicely with the 2020 Draft.  Justin Herbert, who if he enters the 2019 Draft would safely be the presumptive top QB, purportedly will return to Oregon next year.  So 18 months from now he'll hit a draft that also should include Dwayne Haskins & Tua Tagovailoa, among likely 1-2 others of note.

 

4) As an addendum to #3, just like we may let go of McBeane after next year... we're not perpetually tied to Allen either, despite taking him 7th overall just six months ago.  In the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there.  We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Matthew Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite mostly poor play until year #7).  Remember in 2014 the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season?  "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!?  He needs at least 30."  Well, we did, and he was effectively done here, even if still technically rostered.

 

Additionally, two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch.  Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster (or anyone's).

 

I'm not saying I expect this trajectory for Allen- I'm just saying that it's easier to move on from highly-drafted QB's than before if it doesn't appear it's going to work out, for whatever reason.  This could tie into 'shooting our shot' again in 2020.  And this operates with the premise that he WON'T work out.  If he does... we still have impressive 2019 draft capital AND multi offseasons of more cap space than we could spend to fill out and build up our roster.

 

I think- no matter what happens- we have a chance to be all right...

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Thurman#1]

12 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

I'm not saying things are looking up as Bills fans right now- I can't pretend I have the most bullish outlook either.  But I was thinking a little more deeply about our situation this week and realized that even if worst-case outcomes emerge the next 1.5 seasons (Allen can't stay healthy or doesn't show improve, McBeane still can't figure out offensive personnel, 2019 FA is a swing and miss, etc.)... there's some reason to take heart and be "hopeful" (dangerous, self-injurious concept as a Bills fan, admittedly):

 

1) Rightly or wrongly, Buffalo won't be taking a QB high in this April's draft.  For a team that could- or should- replace half its starting roster, that means (at this rate) adding a top 5-10 1st-rounder, top-40 2nd-rounder, and to 70-75 3rd-rounder, plus potentially seven other selections, on non-QB positions (maybe a mid-rounder is spent on developing a backup).  Our total draft capital might not make the most appreciable impact as 10 total picks suggest since seven are day 3 picks.  But armed with an early 1st, 2nd, & 3rd... that COULD make a big difference.

 

And if Allen fails will also probably equip his successor with more surrounding talent than the talent-bereft situation Allen finds himself surrounded by now.  What might contribute to Allen's downfall, if it happens, could aid the chances of success with who follows, since our draft capital WON'T be spent on a QB.

 

2) A lot of the talk lately related to the $85 million we'll ultimately have to spend in FA this year has been about downplaying- or pooh-poohing it- saying, "Who wants to come to offensively inept Buffalo, anyway!?!?" or because the projected class looks more diluted than most years.

 

But the bottom line is that the Bills, even if they go on a legitimate spending spree, can't hope to spend more than half that total this offseason, anyway.  What isn't spent can and will be rolled over into 2020.  And while we're "only" third in projected cap space this March (behind the Jets and Colts)... the Bills presently have the most- and a whopping- $131.6 million dollars in cap space in 2020.  Even the most pessimistic poster can't deny that could have a positive effect.

 

3) I haven't given up on Allen & have been encouraged by a couple of aspects of play... while also engendering pessimism because of other aspects.  But whether he DOES or DOESN'T pan out... we won't be waiting 3-4 years to find out.  McBeane's fate is tied to Allen's and if next year we're still at a point where we score 80 points in 7 games while some other teams are scoring 80 in 7 quarters... they're gone.

 

And that ties in nicely with the 2020 Draft.  Justin Herbert, who if he enters the 2019 Draft would safely be the presumptive top QB, purportedly will return to Oregon next year.  So 18 months from now he'll hit a draft that also should include Dwayne Haskins & Tua Tagovailoa, among likely 1-2 others of note.

 

4) As an addendum to #3, just like we may let go of McBeane after next year... we're not perpetually tied to Allen either, despite taking him 7th overall just six months ago.  In the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there.  We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Matthew Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite mostly poor play until year #7).  Remember in 2014 the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season?  "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!?  He needs at least 30."  Well, we did, and he was effectively done here, even if still technically rostered.

 

Additionally, two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch.  Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster (or anyone's).

 

I'm not saying I expect this trajectory for Allen- I'm just saying that it's easier to move on from highly-drafted QB's than before if it doesn't appear it's going to work out, for whatever reason.  This could tie into 'shooting our shot' again in 2020.  And this operates with the premise that he WON'T work out.  If he does... we still have impressive 2019 draft capital AND multi offseasons of more cap space than we could spend to fill out and build up our roster.

 

I think- no matter what happens- we have a chance to be all right...

 

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding the understanding the Pegulas have of how long rebuilds take.

 

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

 

Agreed that we have a pretty decent chance to be alright whatever happens.

[Midwest1981]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding the understanding the Pegulas have of how long rebuilds take.

 

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

 

Agreed that we have a pretty decent chance to be alright whatever happens.

There are many that believe that McBeane's seat ALREADY is warm and that they should be fighting for their jobs now, rather than at least waiting to see what they're able to do when we don't have an unprecedented $55 million dollars in dead cap (even if self-created) and when we have more resources to make a concerted effort to build up our offense (our 2018 cap space was limited and we spent five of our six 1st-3rd round picks this past draft on drafting Allen & Edmunds, the "QB's" of the offense AND defense).

 

I don't agree with that.  I'm fairly confident McDermott & Beane will get this offseason to try to shore up serious holes, particularly offensively.

 

But if next season we're not only not winning but also struggling in staggering fashion offensively, which is the case right now with a modern-day defying 80 points in 7 games, and if we continue to commit errors that not only reflect badly on the Bills' front-office and public perception but are also plainly deeply, deeply embarrassing (Peterman's Chargers & Ravens' flops, being "forced into" starting Allen before he's ready because of said Peterman flop, signing a FA QB off the streets and then having to start him a week later, etc.)... McBeane will be and should be gone after year #3.

 

I also never thought Pegula would fire Rex less than two years into a FIVE-year contract but that happened.  

 

I hope McBeane gets us on the right path but expect this offseason to be pivotal in deciding their fate.

[MJS]

I can think of a much worse worst case scenario, but I get what you mean.

 

This year and last year were always going to be throwaway years regardless. The coaching staff, GM, and ownership decided to bite the bullet and gut the team of the bad, high contracts from the previous regime and also kick anyone to the curb who didn't fit the new culture and schemes.

 

The team overachieved and made the playoffs despite that last year. But that's irrelevant because the team knew it would take two years to get the cap under control before they could start really building something that could compete.

 

This year and last year was about rebooting the cap, establishing a culture, and getting a young QB to build around in the future.

 

There have been two unexpected bonuses, the first was making the playoffs and breaking the 17 year drought year one. The second was getting many of the defensive pieces together into a good unit faster than expected (obviously my opinion).

 

So if you ask me, we are already ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, the only thing that really matters is whether or not Allen turns into a franchise QB (or at least a starter you can win with). If not, we'll be doing this all over again with a new crew in a few years.

 

I have confidence in McDermott's ability to field a good defense. Allen needs to at least get to Blake Bortles level as a starter. If he does, I believe the team will compete and McDermott and company will be around for a long time and probably have another chance at drafting a QB to replace Allen if he doesn't progress past an average starter. If Allen just sucks badly, this regime probably won't survive that.

[Doc Brown]

Good post and I wouldn't be surprised if that scenario played out.  Beane and McDermott have the right approach to building a winning franchise (full on rebuild with establishing a winning culture), but I question their ability to make the right decisions on the offensive side of the ball during the rebuild.  I'm not a fan of the Josh Allen pick, but am hoping I'm wrong.  However, you knew he was a project so you should've had a more stable veteran to start the year than Nathan Peterman.  You also hire an offensive coordinator with a putrid track record of success as an NFL offensive coordinator and expect him and a previous WR coach to develop Allen?

 

Here's what needs to happen this offseason if their offense continues to be this offensive:

-Fire Daboll.  Bring in somebody with more previous success who has been successful in working with young quarterbacks.

-Use most of your arsenal of draft picks on offense.  Obviously addressing o-line and WR.  For god sakes find somebody who can stretch the field.

-Go hard after the few available free agents on the market on the offensive side of the ball and be willing to overpay.

-Bring back the Amish Rifle as a mentor and quality backup.  Maybe even trade for him this season.  I still can't believe Fitz is only 35.  I feel like he backed up Brett Starr.  If not, find a veteran better than freakin' Derek Anderson.

[Ol Dirty B]

I mean, you could always say we are well off in 2 years by this logic. I don't completely disagree, but being bad and failing setting you up for success is just... not a fun future. 

 

Also, you talk about this regime getting out of bad contracts. What's to say the next regime in this scenario wouldn't be saying the same thing about following McBeane.

 

We have to hope they hit on all this. If they don't, it's not just an easy rebuild in my opinion.

 

That said, the only people I hear talk about culture more than McDermott or his supporters are the migos. The company you keep...

[Thurman#1]

39 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Good post and I wouldn't be surprised if that scenario played out.  Beane and McDermott have the right approach to building a winning franchise (full on rebuild with establishing a winning culture), but I question their ability to make the right decisions on the offensive side of the ball during the rebuild.  I'm not a fan of the Josh Allen pick, but am hoping I'm wrong.  However, you knew he was a project so you should've had a more stable veteran to start the year than Nathan Peterman.  You also hire an offensive coordinator with a putrid track record of success as an NFL offensive coordinator and expect him and a previous WR coach to develop Allen?

 

Here's what needs to happen this offseason if their offense continues to be this offensive:

-Fire Daboll.  Bring in somebody with more previous success who has been successful in working with young quarterbacks.

-Use most of your arsenal of draft picks on offense.  Obviously addressing o-line and WR.  For god sakes find somebody who can stretch the field.

-Go hard after the few available free agents on the market on the offensive side of the ball and be willing to overpay.

-Bring back the Amish Rifle as a mentor and quality backup.  Maybe even trade for him this season.  I still can't believe Fitz is only 35.  I feel like he backed up Brett Starr.  If not, find a veteran better than freakin' Derek Anderson.

 

 

You keep saying, and so do others, that Daboll has a putrid record as an OC. And it just isn't that simple.

 

What people think of you as an OC is dependent on a lot of things, including how good (or in Daboll's case, astoundingly bad) your QBs and offensive rosters are. 

 

Daboll's QBs have been Matt Cassel backed up by Brady Quinn in KC, Matt Moore backed up by Chad Henne in Miami. In Cleveland in his first of two years, 2009, his starter was Brady Quinn, backed up by our own Derek Anderson and the next year Delhomme was the original starter for Cleveland and he went 2-2, but the 35 year-old suffered ankle problems that hobbled him for the season and Daboll was left with Colt McCoy backed up by Seneca Wallace.

 

Remind me, has anyone had success with that pack of mugs since they got out from under Daboll? He's had crap rosters and people know that, and yet he's still widely respected by people like Saban and Belichick.

 

It simply isn't clear that he's been bad. He may well have gotten the best out the dross he coached.

[Doc Brown]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You keep saying, and so do others, that Daboll has a putrid record as an OC. And it just isn't that simple.

 

What people think of you as an OC is dependent on a lot of things, including how good (or in Daboll's case, astoundingly bad) your QBs and offensive rosters are. 

 

Daboll's QBs have been Matt Cassel backed up by Brady Quinn in KC, Matt Moore backed up by Chad Henne in Miami. In Cleveland in his first of two years, 2009, his starter was Brady Quinn, backed up by our own Derek Anderson and the next year Delhomme was the original starter for Cleveland and he went 2-2, but the 35 year-old suffered ankle problems that hobbled him for the season and Daboll was left with Colt McCoy backed up by Seneca Wallace.

 

Remind me, has anyone had success with that pack of mugs since they got out from under Daboll? He's had crap rosters and people know that, and yet he's still widely respected by people like Saban and Belichick.

 

It simply isn't clear that he's been bad. He may well have gotten the best out the dross he coached.

I would argue he never elevated the play of any of the QB's he worked with.  In his three stints (four years as offensive coordinator) he finished 29th, 31st, 22nd, and 32nd in total offense.  There were Alabama journalists and fans that criticized with his hire of Daboll claiming he was a conservative choice as Saban didn't want to deal with an ego like Lane Kiffin.  Alabama had a lackluster offense giving their talent level last year finishing 25th in yards per game in college football.  This year they're 1st.  He just seems like a lackluster hire with uninventive play calling who's offense is on pace of being one of the worst ever.  If this team shows significant improvement as the season progresses then he should stay.  If not, cya.

[Thurman#1]

29 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I would argue he never elevated the play of any of the QB's he worked with.  In his three stints (four years as offensive coordinator) he finished 29th, 31st, 22nd, and 32nd in total offense.  There were Alabama journalists and fans that criticized with his hire of Daboll claiming he was a conservative choice as Saban didn't want to deal with an ego like Lane Kiffin.  Alabama had a lackluster offense giving their talent level last year finishing 25th in yards per game in college football.  This year they're 1st.  He just seems like a lackluster hire with uninventive play calling who's offense is on pace of being one of the worst ever.  If this team shows significant improvement as the season progresses then he should stay.  If not, cya.

 

 

You  can't tell. You can argue it. You can assume it. You can't know it. In those three stints he had three crappy offensive rosters. Crappy.

 

And he was hired afterwards by two of the canniest tactical minds in football. And in his one year at Alabama they won a national championship while switching QBs in midstream. Jalen Hurts improved a lot, but not enough to satisfy Bama. So they substituted in a better QB and lo and behold Daboll's entire mind changes and he becomes brilliant.

 

And as for having a great offense this year, Alabama has played Louisville, Arkansas State, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee. Wait till they hit the meat of their schedule. They do look good on offense this year, but you're comparing a team with a good throwing QB in Tua starting this year with a team starting Hurts most of last year as Tua developed and learned. Supposedly Daboll wanted to play Tua sooner than Saban did. And when Tua came in, that looked like a pretty good suggestion.

 

 

 

Significant improvement would be nice. But it shouldn't make the difference. A lot of things can cause or prevent that. What should make the difference is McDermott's feeling about how good a job Daboll is doing. Is the roster holding him back? Is he doing a good job with what he has? That simple. And a ton easier to see from the inside than the outside.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You  can't tell. You can argue it. You can assume it. You can't know it. In those three stints he had three crappy offensive rosters. Crappy.

 

And he was hired afterwards by two of the canniest tactical minds in football. And in his one year at Alabama they won a national championship while switching QBs in midstream. Jalen Hurts improved a lot, but not enough to satisfy Saban. So they substituted in a better QB and lo and behold Daboll's entire mind changes and he becomes brilliant.

 

Significant improvement would be nice. But it shouldn't make the difference. What should make the difference is McDermott's feeling about how good a job Daboll is doing. Is the roster holding him back? Is he doing a good job with what he has? That simple. And a ton easier to see from the inside than the outside.

I don't have faith in McDermott's evaluation of anything having to do with offense given his handling of the QB situation since he got here.  I don't think the Bills can wait to see if Daboll may possibly be better if we gave him more talent.  As far as Belichick and Saban, they're defensive minded coaches who don't have an impressive coaching tree so I don't put much stock into their opinion of Daboll.

[Fadingpain]

Your Point #3 is the only thing that really needs discussing.

 

When Allen doesn't make it around Lost Corner next year, McDermott will go at the end of the season.

 

When McDermott goes, Beane will go too.  He is the underling to McD, not the other way around.

 

Allen will not get beyond next year to show he can do it, and I don't think McBeane will get a second chance to draft another QB.

 

That's how this business works.  Organizations do not wait around forever for people to show they can do it.

 

As I keep saying around here, EJ got 13 games and no more.

 

 

 

 

[Baba Booey]

Nobodys seat is warm, McDermott bought himself 3-4 years with the playoff birth last year. He and Beane will get the time to build this thing properly. Lets hope improvement comes soon.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding the understanding the Pegulas have of how long rebuilds take.

 

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

 

Agreed that we have a pretty decent chance to be alright whatever happens.

 

I don't disagree with your timeline.... I do disagree with who is more at risk. McDermott is Pegula's guy. Beane is only here because he is McDermott's guy. I can see McDermott without Beane.... I can't see Beane without McDermott.

[Bill from NYC]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I would argue he never elevated the play of any of the QB's he worked with.  In his three stints (four years as offensive coordinator) he finished 29th, 31st, 22nd, and 32nd in total offense.  There were Alabama journalists and fans that criticized with his hire of Daboll claiming he was a conservative choice as Saban didn't want to deal with an ego like Lane Kiffin.  Alabama had a lackluster offense giving their talent level last year finishing 25th in yards per game in college football.  This year they're 1st.  He just seems like a lackluster hire with uninventive play calling who's offense is on pace of being one of the worst ever.  If this team shows significant improvement as the season progresses then he should stay.  If not, cya.

Again, it has been very strongly rumored that Daboll wanted Tua in there and Coach Saban resisted.

 

Additionally, the Alabama offense is twice as good as it was last year. Seriously DB, it isn't even close. Even with losing Ridley, the receivers are light years ahead of last season. A case could be made that Alabama has 4 wide receivers in the top 15 or lower. 3 are sophs, the other a true freshman.

 

That said, the real difference is Tua. Try to catch him in a game vs. any team at all and you will soon see.

 

Jmo, but Daboll will be fine when he has any tools.

[BmarvB]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Good post and I wouldn't be surprised if that scenario played out.  Beane and McDermott have the right approach to building a winning franchise (full on rebuild with establishing a winning culture), but I question their ability to make the right decisions on the offensive side of the ball during the rebuild.  I'm not a fan of the Josh Allen pick, but am hoping I'm wrong.  However, you knew he was a project so you should've had a more stable veteran to start the year than Nathan Peterman.  You also hire an offensive coordinator with a putrid track record of success as an NFL offensive coordinator and expect him and a previous WR coach to develop Allen?

 

Here's what needs to happen this offseason if their offense continues to be this offensive:

-Fire Daboll.  Bring in somebody with more previous success who has been successful in working with young quarterbacks.

-Use most of your arsenal of draft picks on offense.  Obviously addressing o-line and WR.  For god sakes find somebody who can stretch the field.

-Go hard after the few available free agents on the market on the offensive side of the ball and be willing to overpay.

-Bring back the Amish Rifle as a mentor and quality backup.  Maybe even trade for him this season.  I still can't believe Fitz is only 35.  I feel like he backed up Brett Starr.  If not, find a veteran better than freakin' Derek Anderson.

 

Mike McCoy was recently let go in Arizona. He can probably build a better staff of qualified position coaches (minus the Carolina connections) than what we have here now

The offense needs speed receivers who can get open are badly needed

Good luck getting some of the better offensive FAs to come here

If Fitz is willing to come back as a backup only, sure why not.  Let's just hope he doesn't have to get back on the field. He's too streaky.
 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

 

Mike McCoy was recently let go in Arizona. He can probably build a better staff of qualified position coaches (minus the Carolina connections) than what we have here now

 

Seriously? Still people banging on about Mike McCoy? He has had one decent year as an offensive coordinator in his career. One. That year when his Quarterback was Peyton Manning and they were running the Peyton Manning offense. Since then he has flamed out as a Head Coach and been sacked halfway through his first season as the OC in Denver and in Arizona.

 

He stinks.

[CommonCents]

The Pegula’s should be sending McAdoo to a personal grooming service as we speak. That way he looks the part when McD inevitably fires Daboll. 

 

He was great as an OC and he understands “modern” offense. With him flaming out so hard as a HC in NY he should be open to coming to a place like Buffalo even if the current situation is dire. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding the understanding the Pegulas have of how long rebuilds take.

 

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

 

Agreed that we have a pretty decent chance to be alright whatever happens.

Four years??

 

If the offense looks as bad next year as it does this year that will be the nail in the coffin for both Beane and McDermott. The worst NFL offense in 20-30 years falls along the lines of complete team meltdown. To have that occur in back to back seasons would be unacceptable. 

[Cash]

Two great posts, OP. I'm pretty down on the immediate future of the Bills, but this makes me feel a little better. Not all the way, haha - there's still the possibility that we make Golden Tate and John Brown the 2 highest-paid WRs in football, just in time for both of their careers to crater. Then follow it up with a Sammy Watkins-style trade up in the draft. 

 

I'm hoping the Bills are smart with their cap $$ this offseason. I don't mind overpaying guys a bit on 1/2 year deals, but I don't see anyone on the FA lists worth a market-setting contract. The upside is sustainability, and preventing the next regime from having to clear out a bunch of bad contracts. The downside is that it's hard to imagine the offense improving much in 2019, unless Allen takes a MAJOR leap. I think our best case offense is just regular bad instead of historically bad. 

[CommonCents]

5 minutes ago, Cash said:

Two great posts, OP. I'm pretty down on the immediate future of the Bills, but this makes me feel a little better. Not all the way, haha - there's still the possibility that we make Golden Tate and John Brown the 2 highest-paid WRs in football, just in time for both of their careers to crater. Then follow it up with a Sammy Watkins-style trade up in the draft. 

 

I'm hoping the Bills are smart with their cap $$ this offseason. I don't mind overpaying guys a bit on 1/2 year deals, but I don't see anyone on the FA lists worth a market-setting contract. The upside is sustainability, and preventing the next regime from having to clear out a bunch of bad contracts. The downside is that it's hard to imagine the offense improving much in 2019, unless Allen takes a MAJOR leap. I think our best case offense is just regular bad instead of historically bad. 

I was up and down every FA thread last year clamoring for John Brown. You have it right. They missed the boat. Don’t overpay the guy now, he is having a good year and someone is going to make a mistake. They could have offered up a little more than his market on a 2-3 year deal and had him.

[Mr. WEO]

So it's money that will make it all better?  

 

McBeane might behave like lottery winners next offseason.  

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Your Point #3 is the only thing that really needs discussing.

 

When Allen doesn't make it around Lost Corner next year, McDermott will go at the end of the season.

 

When McDermott goes, Beane will go too.  He is the underling to McD, not the other way around.

 

Allen will not get beyond next year to show he can do it, and I don't think McBeane will get a second chance to draft another QB.

 

That's how this business works.  Organizations do not wait around forever for people to show they can do it.

 

As I keep saying around here, EJ got 13 games and no more.

 

 

 

 

I love how you talk about the Allen situation like it is a forgone conclusion

 

You dont know crap

If the offense next year makes the jump the defense is making THIS year....we will be fine.

 

I think Deboll should stick and they should give him the players he actually needs to run his offense.......

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Baba Booey said:

Nobodys seat is warm, McDermott bought himself 3-4 years with the playoff birth last year. He and Beane will get the time to build this thing properly. Lets hope improvement comes soon.

 

LOL.  It comes down to how much embarrassment the Pegulas are willing to tolerate.  If the blowouts to other bottom feeder teams like Indy continue, McDermott won't last the season.

[Maine-iac]

I love it when people talk like draft picks and cap room equal future championships.  Tell me that last NE draft pick that came in and changed the team.  We need to start by getting the coaching right.  If you don't have a DC who can keep the score down and and OC who can take the talent he has and find the end zone once and a while you are  going to lose the majority of the time.  I'm somewhat confident that McDermott and Frazier can handle the defense but until we get an offensive coach who can put points on the board we are in trouble.  Talk about O-lines and QB's and talent always swirl around but the truth is a good coach can get at least marginal results even with sub par talent. 

[Midwest1981]

With the Bills' offense actively trying to turn back the clock to an era it STILL would've been demonstrably awful in, it is admittedly difficult to own much optimism for the future, especially the immediate future.  However, if there's any imaginable way (and maybe there's not) that we can field a semi-competent offense next year (i.e. something BEFORE this year) the projected 2019 schedule doesn't seem too daunting, right now, since it involves many QB's with uncertain QB situations.  Not as uncertain as ours but still:

 

 Home:

 

New England

New York Jets (How much offseason help with Jets equip Darnold with?)

Miami (Tannehill finally gone?  Gase too?)

Baltimore (Flacco's likely out; Jackson's likely in)

Cincinnati (Dalton's up and down... but he's almost always 'up' for us)

Philadelphia

Washington (Smith has been a poor man's version of his KC self)

Oakland (Carr traded?  They're also a mess, anyway)

 

Road:

 

New England

New York Jets

Miami

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

Dallas (Dak is only top 20-25)

New York Giants (likely a rookie QB)

Jacksonville (Bortles' cap hit makes him still likely in place as starter)

 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I don't think you did play out the worst case scenario though.

 

The worst case scenario to me is we keep McBeane, they continue to fail at building an offense and either keep Daboll or go 0-3 at picking offensive coordinators, and spend a big chunk of cap space on players that aren't very good. 

 

I wouldn't keep McDermott. Through 2 different offensive coordinators, we've seen his brand of offense. And it's horrific. I know people love to deflect that from him but he's the head coach, the OC's are an extension of him. Keeping him past this season could set this organization back for years. 

 

I don't necessarily mind having a "defensive minded" head coach, but they have to be able to have some kind of handle on the offense and be able to hire the right fits at OC. He's been disgustingly bad at both. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by HomeskillitMoorman

[iinii]

On 10/26/2018 at 3:01 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You keep saying, and so do others, that Daboll has a putrid record as an OC. And it just isn't that simple.

 

What people think of you as an OC is dependent on a lot of things, including how good (or in Daboll's case, astoundingly bad) your QBs and offensive rosters are. 

 

Daboll's QBs have been Matt Cassel backed up by Brady Quinn in KC, Matt Moore backed up by Chad Henne in Miami. In Cleveland in his first of two years, 2009, his starter was Brady Quinn, backed up by our own Derek Anderson and the next year Delhomme was the original starter for Cleveland and he went 2-2, but the 35 year-old suffered ankle problems that hobbled him for the season and Daboll was left with Colt McCoy backed up by Seneca Wallace.

 

Remind me, has anyone had success with that pack of mugs since they got out from under Daboll? He's had crap rosters and people know that, and yet he's still widely respected by people like Saban and Belichick.

 

It simply isn't clear that he's been bad. He may well have gotten the best out the dross he coached.

And he may have had the good fortune of riding the coattails of Belichick and Saban. He was McDaniels’ assistant in Foxboro. I know there is a co next to assistant but we see who is still there and who isn’t. 

[John from Riverside]

I am hoping some how some way we can get a top 2 pick.......and make a move down to 5 and pick up more day 1/day 2 picks

 

Take LT Jonah at 5

take at LEAST 3 WR's in this draft and a TE

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, iinii said:

And he may have had the good fortune of riding the coattails of Belichick and Saban. He was McDaniels’ assistant in Foxboro. I know there is a co next to assistant but we see who is still there and who isn’t. 

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

[HomeskillitMoorman]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

 

There have been numerous coordinators for both Belichick and Saban who have failed elsewhere. Some guys are good assistant coaches simply because they're good at being an extension of the head coach if that's what's asked of them. 

 

I don't know if this offense is an extension of what McDermott wants or if it's all Daboll. The latter would concern me because I don't think that has the makings of a successful system, because a head coach should be involved with all aspects of the team. The first part would also concern me because this might just be the offense no matter who the OC is if this is what McDermott believes in. Both years here we've seen a bland, extremely conservative, uncreative brand of offense, and the constant has been McDermott. It's really not looking good either way if he/they are coming back, unfortunately. 

[BigDingus]

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am hoping some how some way we can get a top 2 pick.......and make a move down to 5 and pick up more day 1/day 2 picks

 

Take LT Jonah at 5

take at LEAST 3 WR's in this draft and a TE

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

Edited November 8, 2018 by BigDingus

[Thurman#1]

48 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

There have been numerous coordinators for both Belichick and Saban who have failed elsewhere. Some guys are good assistant coaches simply because they're good at being an extension of the head coach if that's what's asked of them. 

 

I don't know if this offense is an extension of what McDermott wants or if it's all Daboll. The latter would concern me because I don't think that has the makings of a successful system, because a head coach should be involved with all aspects of the team. The first part would also concern me because this might just be the offense no matter who the OC is if this is what McDermott believes in. Both years here we've seen a bland, extremely conservative, uncreative brand of offense, and the constant has been McDermott. It's really not looking good either way if he/they are coming back, unfortunately. 

 

 

Really? A lot of coordinators for Belichick and Daboll failed elsewhere ... as coordinators? As head coaches, yes. But as coordinators, the record is positive overall, I'd argue. And Daboll isn't a head coach here, he's a coordinator.

 

I totally disagree with you that our offense has been conservative or uncreative this year. Unsuccessful, yes. But not all that conservative. We've seen the wildcat, we've seen gadget plays, the read option ...

 

And being unsuccessful with a crappy offensive roster early in a rebuild doesn't necessarily mean the coach is doing a bad job. It might be that the plays would have worked if they'd been better executed. It could be partly Daboll's fault, but there are some smart people on both sides of the issue of whether Daboll is doing a good job. IMHO it's just not conclusive.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Thurman#1

[ALF]

The one thing money can buy is bringing in the best scouts and assistant coaches available.

 

Losing Richie, Wood and Kromer really set the offense back . 

[iinii]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

Maybe Daboll is why Belichick wouldn’t let McDaniels go to Indy. And you used if twice based on an article. Hearsay times two.

[Simon Says]

Why do you say they wont be able to spend "half of their available cap" in 2019? Based on what? No that hard to spend 90 million; can renegotiate your own players you want to keep...maybe take some dead cap hits by moving on from giyus like McCoy, Clay and Murphy if you want (all  making about 9 million). Rather than gambling  on risky, high-priced, elite, FA's, can really build some depth with that money. (Allen's dead cap hit is 12 or 13 the next couple years.)

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

I think we are going higher on skill position players in the draft this year.....yeah we might take a big ugly with the 1st pick....but that is also why you dont win.....so you can pick high in every round.

[Mr. WEO]

So even in Op's worst case scenario which includes "McBeanse still can't figure out offensive personel" AND they "swing and miss on FAs", it's really not hopeless because....

 

-the Bills have a lot of draft picks (for offense)

 

-there's lots of money for FAs

 

That's like saying "worst case scenario is that McBeane are terrible at piloting a plane and playing piano...but the good news is that we have lots of planes and pianos next year".

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

On 10/26/2018 at 2:12 AM, Thurman#1 said:

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

We'll likely have significant opportunities to improve in the off season, given our draft prospects and free agent money.  If Beane blows it and this team is still floundering next season, that warm seat will get hot as hell.  He's already made some poor choices and could very well be gone after three seasons.  It's pretty unlikely that if Beane goes following next season, McD will still be here as well. 

[John from Riverside]

To me worse case scenario is Beane and McDermott start feeling pressure that takes them away from the plan they have set forth......right as they are about to finish it.

 

Stay the course

Finish it out

Let your work be judged on your complete body of work.....which requires next off season

[Midwest1981]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

A more apt description for my 'worse-case scenario" is realistic worse-case scenario- and it still isn't any good:  Allen busts, McBeane still can't recognize offensive talent, and the Bills' offensive ineptitude perpetuates laughingstock status, which we clearly presently own, into another full season.

 

But I suppose it isn't the WORST-case scenario, as you outlined.  But yours seems more implausible.

 

Who would the Bills be trading our 2020 1st for in this draft?  Which offensive talent would be so tantalizing to rationalize it?  The Bills will already own a very high 2019 1st- they don't need to trade for one, like in middling years' past. And Buffalo will already struggle to justify taking an offensive player in the top-5 as it is- the only current justification is how wretched our offense is, not because there won't be a defensive player whose true value warrants the pick more than, say, Jonah Williams.

 

The Bills may reach for offense with their own high 1st but it's unlikely they'd look to acquire another 1st to do the same, if Pegula would even let them.  And yes, their seats are warmer now than last draft. But McBeane was so resistant to parting with future picks.  You consider that, too, and I don't think it's very likely Buffalo is trading its 2020 1st in April's draft.

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

So even in Op's worst case scenario which includes "McBeanse still can't figure out offensive personel" AND they "swing and miss on FAs", it's really not hopeless because....

 

-the Bills have a lot of draft picks (for offense)

 

-there's lots of money for FAs

 

That's like saying "worst case scenario is that McBeane are terrible at piloting a plane and playing piano...but the good news is that we have lots of planes and pianos next year".

 

 

 

I'm not sure you read what I wrote because made clear is that if the 2019 offseason is a dud then McBeane won't be making the decisions any further.  Yes, it would be unfortunate if the Bills blow through $50 million dollars worth of cap space and the next regime wants to rid itself of the additions.  Still, shockingly enough it wouldn't be crippling- a league-high $131.6 million in 2020 cap space underscores how the Bills have such little cap room currently committed. 

 

And God knows Buffalo hasn't drafted well this whole millennium but an emphasis on this decade.  That's awful but at least it means that internally we won't be spending much on our own guys; they won't consume much- or ANY- cap room, at least not until 2020/2021 when we try to extend some 2017 draft picks (White, Dawkins, Milano, and maybe Jones).

Edited November 8, 2018 by Midwest1981