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Opinions on why we passed on Rosen?


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On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 1:51 PM, Jauronimo said:

I really don't see how we can have this discussion without taking the gloves off and talking politics, religion, and the fact that California QBs just plain suck.

Josh Allen grew up in CA.

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36 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Allen is the kind of guy a southern NC boy Beane can identify with, and after Pegula’s leaked comments from the owners-players meeting it seems that is the culture in Buffalo. 

 

Can you point me to those leaked comments?  I missed those and am intrigued. 

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Probably because the difference between these two wasn't as drastic as fans and the media make it out to be. If you ever watch a full game of Allen (not a highlight reel), you'll see a guy in a league of his own. Under duress literally ever single play, making accurate passes all over the field and on the run. Sure, he misses some layups and air mails passes from time to time. But he does have accuracy, just needs a little consistency. 

 

Taking that into account, it's not hard to believe he can put it all together at the next level. That combined with his upside, and a personality completely opposite of Rosen, it's not an outlandish decision. 

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20 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

You're f*cking kidding, right?

You don't think a clone Cam Newton, producing like him is good enough?

You're really asking that?

 

He has a league MVP and carried them to the f*cking Superbowl.

 

I'm not who you're talking to, but um...yeah, I think a clone of Cam Newton, producing like Newton, might not be good enough.

It's my opinion, try not to screech too loudly, 'kay?  I know Brandon Beane considers him a franchise QB and presumably good enough.

 

Newton had a superb rookie season, and a superb Superbowl season, with as you say, league MVP honors.

He's also had 3 seasons where his team has been in the bottom 3rd of the league for offense, and 2 where they were 10-12.

 

So 2 superb seasons, 5 poor to meh seasons on offense, and it's worth asking what role Newton plays in that.  The answer is, a fair bit.  He's had two seasons - his rookie season, and last year - where he's thrown a lot of picks, 3.3%.  That might be survivable, but he hasn't counterbalanced it with the TD production of his SB/league MVP season.  A lot of his years TD/INT ratio hovers around 1.3/1.4.    That's not good. 

 

I will admit I haven't watched him all that much, but when I have, I see spotty accuracy.  Sometimes he's on, and he's Unreal!  Drops jaws, takes your breath away.  Sometimes he's off, inaccurate or places the ball poorly, makes poor decisions, and he gets picked.  He needs a big target with a wide catch radius and a good vertical leap to bail him out, as his ball placement isn't first-rate.   And on the big stage - the Superbowl - granted playing against a tip-top defense but that's what you get in the Big Dance - he didn't manage to step up and bring it.  0 TD, 265 yds, 1 INT, 6 sacks. 

 

So yeah, if Newton had continued to develop after coming into the league - if his INTs were dropping and his accuracy/decision making continued to improve - if he could reproduce that league MVP season - absolutely he'd be good enough.

 

But so far, he hasn't.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not who you're talking to, but um...yeah, I think a clone of Cam Newton, producing like Newton, might not be good enough.

It's my opinion, try not to screech too loudly, 'kay?  I know Brandon Beane considers him a franchise QB and presumably good enough.

 

Newton had a superb rookie season, and a superb Superbowl season, with as you say, league MVP honors.

He's also had 3 seasons where his team has been in the bottom 3rd of the league for offense, and 2 where they were 10-12.

 

So 2 superb seasons, 5 poor to meh seasons on offense, and it's worth asking what role Newton plays in that.  The answer is, a fair bit.  He's had two seasons - his rookie season, and last year - where he's thrown a lot of picks, 3.3%.  That might be survivable, but he hasn't counterbalanced it with the TD production of his SB/league MVP season.  A lot of his years TD/INT ratio hovers around 1.3/1.4.    That's not good. 

 

I will admit I haven't watched him all that much, but when I have, I see spotty accuracy.  Sometimes he's on, and he's Unreal!  Drops jaws, takes your breath away.  Sometimes he's off, inaccurate or places the ball poorly, makes poor decisions, and he gets picked.  He needs a big target with a wide catch radius and a good vertical leap to bail him out, as his ball placement isn't first-rate.   And on the big stage - the Superbowl - granted playing against a tip-top defense but that's what you get in the Big Dance - he didn't manage to step up and bring it.  0 TD, 265 yds, 1 INT, 6 sacks. 

 

So yeah, if Newton had continued to develop after coming into the league - if his INTs were dropping and his accuracy/decision making continued to improve - if he could reproduce that league MVP season - absolutely he'd be good enough.

 

But so far, he hasn't.

 

 

 

I'm not going to "screech" at this.

All fair points.

Newton is a very good QB, who as you said, has been up and down.

He also has had his offense ripped to shreds around him, with receivers basically being non-existent.

I will give you the points that he's up and down.

I wouldn't say he's had 5 poor to meh

I would say in 7 seasons he has 3 pro bowls (including an MVP) and 4 meh seasons.

Poor compared to his high end seasons? Yes.

Poor compared to the rest of the NFL? I'd say average.

 

I would consider him a franchise QB, not an all time great elite like Brady, Rodgers, Manning, but good enough to build a team around and make the other team fear you.

 

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1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:

I’m not seeing the connection between your post about Beane being from southern NC and the culture at OBD, and Pegula’s quotes. 

 

Surprised you can’t see the connections between why the Bills brass would feel Allen would be a better fit with Buffalo as opposed to Allen. 

 

I think at the end of the day the Bills chose Allen over Rosen for reasons outside of football ability & performance. Now this is my opinion, but can’t one say that might be the reason why they might have felt Allen was a better fit over Rosen? Would the vast majority of Bills fans identify with Allen or Rosen? Did our owners & FO like Allen personally more than Rosen? Would the FO take this into consideration? Which QB is more of a Yes Man type of guy? These are the types of guys the current regime on the surface appears to want playing for them. 

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39 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I'm not going to "screech" at this.

All fair points.

Newton is a very good QB, who as you said, has been up and down.

He also has had his offense ripped to shreds around him, with receivers basically being non-existent.

I will give you the points that he's up and down.

I wouldn't say he's had 5 poor to meh

I would say in 7 seasons he has 3 pro bowls (including an MVP) and 4 meh seasons.

Poor compared to his high end seasons? Yes.

Poor compared to the rest of the NFL? I'd say average.

 

I would consider him a franchise QB, not an all time great elite like Brady, Rodgers, Manning, but good enough to build a team around and make the other team fear you.

 

 

Good hate screeching.  Thanks.  Not too impressed by pro bowls.  They're popularity contests, often - who's winning ,who's being talked about.

 

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough in what I wrote: "He's also had 3 seasons where his team has been in the bottom 3rd of the league for offense, and 2 where they were 10-12.

So 2 superb seasons, 5 poor to meh seasons on offense, and it's worth asking what role Newton plays in that.  The answer is, a fair bit"

 

HIS TEAM has been in the bottom third of the league on offense, HIS TEAM has had poor to meh seasons on offense.  Not arguable.

 

What can be debated is the role Newton plays in that.  He has not always had a great OL and great pieces around him, granted.  Has he always played up to his potential and lifted his team as much as he could in the circumstances?  I would also say no.  His INTs, spotty accuracy and decision making, IMO, have played a significant role in his teams offensive struggles and it seems to me that he's kind of plateaued.  But maybe I'm wrong, and his supporting cast is worse than I think.

 

What is a franchise QB, exactly?  To some people, it means one of the all time elite greats, the guy who can lift the team and carry the team on his arm.  Newton can still grow, but to date, he has not been that guy - he has shown flashes.

 

To you, it may mean "a QB who can play capabably, sometimes well at the NFL level, and can bring you to the playoffs consistently if you put the pieces around him".  I would certainly agree Newton is in that group.

 

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On 4/27/2018 at 2:51 PM, Magox said:

Because of "politics" and that he's a "Je".

 

Because of the movie "Draft Day" and the fact his team mates did not come to his birthday party.

The Edwards concussion and demise.

The "F&ck Trump" hat, and the fact that he did not disown it. 

Future Colin K. in the making.

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4 hours ago, SoTier said:

Beane & Company fell for the lure of a big QB with a big arm.

Perhaps Jesus told them to draft Allen in a vision?

 

Makes as much sense as any theory.

 

 

1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

Allen is physically imposing and he has more upside potential than Rosen.

Rosen can actually throw a football accurately and has been successful against top college talent, is way smart for a football player, and knows how to read defenses.

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good hate screeching.  Thanks.  Not too impressed by pro bowls.  They're popularity contests, often - who's winning ,who's being talked about.

 

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough in what I wrote: "He's also had 3 seasons where his team has been in the bottom 3rd of the league for offense, and 2 where they were 10-12.

So 2 superb seasons, 5 poor to meh seasons on offense, and it's worth asking what role Newton plays in that.  The answer is, a fair bit"

 

HIS TEAM has been in the bottom third of the league on offense, HIS TEAM has had poor to meh seasons on offense.  Not arguable.

 

What can be debated is the role Newton plays in that.  He has not always had a great OL and great pieces around him, granted.  Has he always played up to his potential and lifted his team as much as he could in the circumstances?  I would also say no.  His INTs, spotty accuracy and decision making, IMO, have played a significant role in his teams offensive struggles and it seems to me that he's kind of plateaued.  But maybe I'm wrong, and his supporting cast is worse than I think.

 

What is a franchise QB, exactly?  To some people, it means one of the all time elite greats, the guy who can lift the team and carry the team on his arm.  Newton can still grow, but to date, he has not been that guy - he has shown flashes.

 

To you, it may mean "a QB who can play capabably, sometimes well at the NFL level, and can bring you to the playoffs consistently if you put the pieces around him".  I would certainly agree Newton is in that group.

 

 

I'll say I'm okay with the second  definition of a franchise QB.

 

I think the elite, all time great is a level we all want, but it's not realistic to disregard any QB who isn't in that group as a failure, or crap on a good QB just because he isn't a HoF guy. (Not saying YOU do, but many others like to do that)

 

I would say that Tony Romo was a franchise QB for many years.

Many people crapped on him, unfairly in my eyes.

I'd be ecstatic with a guy like him.

11 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Perhaps Jesus told them to draft Allen in a vision?

 

Makes as much sense as any theory.

 

 

Rosen can actually throw a football accurately and has been successful against top college talent, is way smart for a football player, and knows how to read defenses.

 

Allen checks the bold boxes as well. 

He's a very smart kid, and outscored the chosen one on the wonderlic.

 

Josh Allen: 37
Josh Rosen: 29
Sam Darnold: 28
Baker Mayfield: 25
Lamar Jackson: 13

 

I don't put much stock in the test in regards to being a QB, but Allen isn't a dummy like you are implying.

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11 minutes ago, Niagara said:

Because of the movie "Draft Day" and the fact his team mates did not come to his birthday party.

The Edwards concussion and demise.

The "F&ck Trump" hat, and the fact that he did not disown it. 

Future Colin K. in the making.

 

I thought that "birthday party" thing had been debunked thoroughly.  Rosen was not "Draft Day"

I'm not sure what "disown" means in the context - he did it, how can he disown it?  He did say that he wouldn't do it again and he regretted it.

 

I do think teams had legit concern that Rosen might take up a cause that could embarrass the league or his team and not be dissuaded by anything anyone on the team might say.  From the leaked NYT article, it does seem that Pegula might share those concerns.  It's unclear whether Rosen was able to lay them to rest.

 

I think people make it all too complicated.  I think Allen was athletically closest to what Beane wanted to see in a QB (think Newton), and they decided he is smart and dedicated enough that he can be coached up.

1 hour ago, Augie said:

If there is any sunshine in the Cam comparisons, I’d say that Allen is far more humble and eager to do anything possible to improve his game. THAT is huge. 

 

Agree.

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1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I would say that Tony Romo was a franchise QB for many years.

Many people crapped on him, unfairly in my eyes.

I'd be ecstatic with a guy like him.

Tony Romo is a better announcer, and would make a better coach than he did a QB. He was like Moses who could take Dallas to the crest of the hill to see the promised land, but he just could not take them there.

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On 4/27/2018 at 2:34 PM, Klaista2k said:

Rosen was talked about as probably the best pure pocket quarterback in the draft. He was available for the Bills to grab but they passed. 

Any options on why exactly we didn't like him?

 

-Injury concerns?

-Attitude?

-Concerns about playing in the cold weather?

-Was he just overrated in general?

 

Thoughts?

 

Injury concerns were probably apart of it but from what I saw was he struggled when the play breaks down,  and is why Beane said Allen can play inside and outside of the pocket meaning he didn't want someone who couldn't

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Allen is physically imposing and he has more upside potential than Rosen.

 

18 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Rosen can actually throw a football accurately and has been successful against top college talent, is way smart for a football player, and knows how to read defenses.

 

Exactly correct.  Beane chose athleticism, perhaps intelligence (higher Wonderlic), and potential  over polished and proficient passing skills and a higher level of demonstrated ability to read a defense and make football reactions.

 

Was this the right choice?  I didn't think so, but it's done now, so I'll hope for the best.

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Exactly correct.  Beane chose athleticism, perhaps intelligence (higher Wonderlic), and potential  over polished and proficient passing skills and a higher level of demonstrated ability to read a defense and make football reactions.

 

Was this the right choice?  I didn't think so, but it's done now, so I'll hope for the best.

 

The fact that he was twice concussed matters.  The fact that scouts say he holds the ball too long when pressured and takes unnecessary hits matters.  All things considered we took the better QB.  Allen is not accurate is fake news.

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17 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

I thought that comment was a bit strange.  Rosen is going to show the previous 9 teams that didn't draft him that they screwed up by defeating them on the field on a consistent basis?  First of all, Josh, there were only 8 teams picking before the Cardinals as Cleveland drafted twice.  Second, apparently, the Giants, Broncos, Colts, Bears, and 49ers didn't want or need a QB so that just leaves 3 teams that you can seek your revenge on.  And since they are all AFC teams and you are on an NFC team, you only get to play them once every four years.  In summation, you may be concussed out of the league by the Rams D-line before you even get to play the Bills, Browns, or Jets.  What an insufferable, self-absorbed, d-bag he is.

He said, "There were nine mistakes made ahead of me, and I'm going to make sure they all know it was a mistake."  He could do that by having a hall of fame career.  He seems like a punk to me, but he may very well be the best QB of this draft.  Only time will tell.

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1 minute ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

 

The fact that he was twice concussed matters.  The fact that scouts say he holds the ball too long when pressured and takes unnecessary hits matters.  All things considered we took the better QB.  Allen is not accurate is fake news.

 

I don't want to "go there" with that politicized term.  Let's shift it and say you believe Allen IS accurate, and reports of spotty accuracy by scouts, media pundits, and even the QB coach who's been working with him are false (not to mention our own GunnerBill and Buffalo716). 

 

That seems a little unlikely to be the case - that's a lot of expertise you're writing off, including reports of people who like Allen and think he's great. You're unlikely to believe one more voice after you discount all the above, but FWIW I've watched Allen game tape and I see spotty accuracy.  Sometimes he throws lasers, and sometimes he's off.

 

It is true that Rosen sometimes tries too hard to extend the play, but these are common issues with competitive QB who really want to win and hate to lose, and can usually be coached out (or fade naturally when surrounded by more talent).  Whether or not a QB's accuracy can be improved at this level, is a more open question.

 

We hope it can.

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Are you kidding me? One and only reason; our gm, Beane is an idiot. That’s why we passed on Rosen. Typical of the Bills, however. 

 

That gray cloud over the stadium just keeps

getting bigger. 

 

 

Edited by Carter
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't want to "go there" with that politicized term.  Let's shift it and say you believe Allen IS accurate, and reports of spotty accuracy by scouts, media pundits, and even the QB coach who's been working with him are false (not to mention our own GunnerBill and Buffalo716). 

 

That seems a little unlikely to be the case - that's a lot of expertise you're writing off, including reports of people who like Allen and think he's great. You're unlikely to believe one more voice after you discount all the above, but FWIW I've watched Allen game tape and I see spotty accuracy.  Sometimes he throws lasers, and sometimes he's off.

 

It is true that Rosen sometimes tries too hard to extend the play, but these are common issues with competitive QB who really want to win and hate to lose, and can usually be coached out (or fade naturally when surrounded by more talent).  Whether or not a QB's accuracy can be improved at this level, is a more open question.

 

We hope it can.

I know that didn't work with EJ, bur I've heard that his work over the past few months has already helped his accuracy. Let's hope so because he will be given every possible chance to succeed.

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22 hours ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:
Carson Wentz 
    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career North Dakota State         392

 

612

64.1 5115 8.4 8.8 45 14 153.9
2012 North Dakota State MVC FR QB 8 12 16 75.0 144 9.0 11.5 2 0 191.9
2013 North Dakota State MVC SO QB 11 22 30 73.3 209 7.0 7.6 1 0 142.9
2014 North Dakota State MVC JR QB 16 228 358 63.7 3111 8.7 8.8 25 10 154.1
2015 North Dakota State MVC SR QB 7 130 208 62.5 1651 7.9 8.7 17 4 152.3

Josh allen

 

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Wyoming         365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21 137.7
2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1
*2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9
*2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8

Josh Allen one less TD then Wentz he played 15 less games also 100 less passing yards basically then Wentz again in 15 less games. Also Wentz played on a better team with better offensive line. So yes what would or could  Allen have done with 15 more games of stats.  I think probably a lot more. I will take Allen every time. 

 

 

Not fair to compare games here. I mean, in 2012, Wentz played in 8 games, but we are talking minimal appearances. In those eight games he threw a total for the season of 16 passes. Same with 2013 when he appeared in 11 games but only had 30 attempts. 

 

The way to compare them, obviously, is attempts. In his college career, Wentz threw 612 passes, while Allen threw 649. In those attempts, Wentz threw 45 TDs and 14 INTs while Allen threw 44 TDs and 21 INTs. Wentz had an 8.4 YPA in college while Allen had a 7.8. Wentz completed 64.1% while Allen completed 56.2%.

 

Allen's 100 fewer passing yards came on 37 more attempts than Wentz had.

 

Certainly situation, as in OL talent, schedule, etc., had something to do with it. But it just isn't fair to say that Wentz had more games, implying that Allen was much more productive. Allen threw more passes.

Edited by Thurman#1
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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't want to "go there" with that politicized term.  Let's shift it and say you believe Allen IS accurate, and reports of spotty accuracy by scouts, media pundits, and even the QB coach who's been working with him are false (not to mention our own GunnerBill and Buffalo716). 

 

That seems a little unlikely to be the case - that's a lot of expertise you're writing off, including reports of people who like Allen and think he's great. You're unlikely to believe one more voice after you discount all the above, but FWIW I've watched Allen game tape and I see spotty accuracy.  Sometimes he throws lasers, and sometimes he's off.

 

It is true that Rosen sometimes tries too hard to extend the play, but these are common issues with competitive QB who really want to win and hate to lose, and can usually be coached out (or fade naturally when surrounded by more talent).  Whether or not a QB's accuracy can be improved at this level, is a more open question.

 

We hope it can.

 

 

We know it can. It has, many times. Guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers have talked loud and long about how QB coaching has helped them, and the improvement of their results bears them out.

 

However, the fact that it can be improved certainly doesn't mean it always works. There are plenty of cases of guys either not improving or not improving enough with coaching. And there are also cases of guys improving and then regressing in game situations. It seems that when a guy has time on the bench to make those changes in mechanics go deep into their habit patterns, into muscle memory, they have a better chance to make it work.

 

The fact that Allen has improved - an awful lot - is a good sign. Certainly there's no proof that improvement will stick, but plenty of guys simply weren't able to improve. He has. That's good. There's a lot of room for hope.

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1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We know it can. It has, many times. Guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers have talked loud and long about how QB coaching has helped them, and the improvement of their results bears them out.

 

However, the fact that it can be improved certainly doesn't mean it always works. There are plenty of cases of guys either not improving or not improving enough with coaching. And there are also cases of guys improving and then regressing in game situations. It seems that when a guy has time on the bench to make those changes in mechanics go deep into their habit patterns, into muscle memory, they have a better chance to make it work.

 

The fact that Allen has improved - an awful lot - is a good sign. Certainly there's no proof that improvement will stick, but plenty of guys simply weren't able to improve. He has. That's good. There's a lot of room for hope.

And they cant take hope from us can they? Great post

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We know it can. It has, many times. Guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers have talked loud and long about how QB coaching has helped them, and the improvement of their results bears them out.

 

However, the fact that it can be improved certainly doesn't mean it always works. There are plenty of cases of guys either not improving or not improving enough with coaching. And there are also cases of guys improving and then regressing in game situations. It seems that when a guy has time on the bench to make those changes in mechanics go deep into their habit patterns, into muscle memory, they have a better chance to make it work.

 

The fact that Allen has improved - an awful lot - is a good sign. Certainly there's no proof that improvement will stick, but plenty of guys simply weren't able to improve. He has. That's good. There's a lot of room for hope.

 

Our track record of QB development isn't great, but it is a new regime so I'm optimistic.

I think we need to find a legit QB guru though.

I would love to get Jordan Palmer on board, he seems to have a great connection already with Allen.

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On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 2:43 PM, Woodman19 said:

His teammates didn't like him

His college coach said they wouldn't draft him #1

He couldn't bite his tongue for 5 minutes after being drafted.

 

Enough red flags for me.

I think his overall demeanor after he was taken shows why his teammates didn't like him and his coach wouldn't have drafted him 1.

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