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RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming


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The game tape doesn't lie.

 

He's a great athlete, but a mediocre football player. He doesn't display adequate NFL accuracy or decision making and takes far too many risks with the ball. He was just a guy in the Mountain West Conference, and was abysmal against decent competition. He makes some incredible plays with his arm and mobility, but he struggles with the basics. In the NFL where you need to convert first downs and sustain drives to score points, players like him never wind up making it as franchise QBs because they can't keep the chains moving.

 

It seems like every year a team makes a mistake and drafts the 6'5 QB with the rocket arm whose college game film wasn't good enough, and every time these guys wind up as colossal busts. Just ask JP Losman, Akili Smith, Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. 

 

Inaccurate college QBs don't go onto become franchise QBs in the NFL. 

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6 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Daboll can't be happy about the pick. Belichick has always stressed the importance of throwing accuracy in an NFL quarterback. And here we go and choose the most inaccurate QB in the draft.

A few years ago, BB said something very simple, but profound, about playing QB in this league. It's all about 1) seeing the field and 2) making the throw with the accuracy. That was it, but it's so true. 

 

If we're talking about an offense where Allen could succeed, I think it's a heavy running attack with deep ball play action opportunities. 

Edited by TheElectricCompany
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Just now, jrober38 said:

The game tape doesn't lie.

 

He's a great athlete, but a mediocre football player. He doesn't display adequate NFL accuracy or decision making and takes far too many risks with the ball. He was just a guy in the Mountain West Conference, and was abysmal against decent competition. He makes some incredible plays with his arm and mobility, but he struggles with the basics. In the NFL where you need to convert first downs and sustain drives to score points, players like him never wind up making it as franchise QBs because they can't keep the chains moving.

 

It seems like every year a team makes a mistake and drafts the 6'5 QB with the rocket arm whose college game film wasn't good enough, and every time these guys wind up as colossal busts. Just ask JP Losman, Akili Smith, Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. 

 

Inaccurate college QBs don't go onto become franchise QBs in the NFL. 

 

I still think his tape shows more than EJ. I watched some of his old stuff, and his recievers were wide open every single time. 

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3 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Looks like Rivers on that one.

 

I'm as as skeptical as the next guy, but this is just a terrific play. Recognizes coverage, stands tall with 5 guys in his face, throws with anticipation. Perfect. 

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30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Eh I think if he's better than half of them that would be enough. Would I bet on that? Nope. Beane's job is on the line with this selection, that's for sure.

 

 

You absolutely cannot say this with certainty yet.

 

I feel confident in my statement.

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Beane has a great plan. We signed AJ to a 2 year deal. 2019 will be all about grooming Allen, taking time with him. 2020 is when he will get his shot, and AJ will still be there if needed. Sure, everyone wants to win, but 2019 will be a rebuilding, training year which is why Beane didn't give up 2019 picks. With a great rookie class and a lot of FAs, since we have plenty of cap next year, 2020 and onward Bills are all in

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2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Better shut the message board down, then. Nothing to talk about until games are played.

 

My guess is that Beane's and McDermott's employment with the Bills will be over by the end of the 2019 season as a result of yesterday's disaster.

 

Do you like Edmunds?

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2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

You just pulled that straight from your bottom.

Why isnt Colt Brennan an All pro?  He set the record for Qb rating when he was in college.  

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2 minutes ago, Will-GM-for-food said:

Beane has a great plan. We signed AJ to a 2 year deal. 2019 will be all about grooming Allen, taking time with him. 2020 is when he will get his shot, and AJ will still be there if needed. Sure, everyone wants to win, but 2019 will be a rebuilding, training year which is why Beane didn't give up 2019 picks. With a great rookie class and a lot of FAs, since we have plenty of cap next year, 2020 and onward Bills are all in

 

Good post. We all need to realize and accept that this year will be a rebuilding year. It won't be fun for the fans who expect to win now.  It definitely is about grooming Allen, not rushing him. Like You said, lots of cap money next year along with more high picks. I love the fact that Beane did not part with next year's number one pick. Go Bills , trusting the process!!

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2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

The problem is that if you watch the tape Josh Allen struggles to complete wide receiver screens. 

 

Also, he played in the Mountain West. He was going up against garbage defenses week in and week out. His supporting cast was just as good as the defenders he faced. 

Elite athletes run the more precise routes, get better separation, have a bigger catching radius, adjust to the football better then your average WR in my humble opinion. The better O coordinators/systems at the college level, or successful is perhaps a more appropriate description also run a more QB friendly style Offense IMO. Alabama for instance with its run 1st mentality on O and stiff Defense wins championships with practically anyone behind center and why A J McCarron failed to get recognition.

 

I get your point , but when you put a big armed smart kid behind a good Oline and provide him with an elite supporting cast like Shady at the RB position good things can happen in my humble opinion.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Why isnt Colt Brennan an All pro?  He set the record for Qb rating when he was in college.  

 

I'm aware of various college systems. I'm also aware that a good passer of the football will tend to have a good passer rating regardless of system. A quarterback that struggles passing the football will not magically become a great passer when he makes the transition to the NFL.

 

When is the last quarterback to succeed in the NFL after having a passer rating ranked in the 80's in his final season of college? I'll wait.

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NFL coaches can now communicate with the QB until 10 seconds before the snap. I feel like with that new development in QB play (which helped Goff out tremendously this past season) players with big time physical tools like Allen will have a greater chance of success. 

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