Bills the worst team in the NFL this season?

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September.

That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did. 

 

Man do I hate the “who knows what will happen until the games are played?” arguement.  It’s reasonable t9 make educated guesses that can then be argued.  The alternative is never to speculate about anything. 

[formerlyofCtown]

8 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

So someone named Mike Clay says, as of 4/20/2018 that the Bills will be the worst team in the league next season with a record of 2-14.

 

Who gives a flying F?

 

 

Smoke screen to help us trade up.

[Epstein's Mother]

40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

He's got the Dolphins at 2-14 and the Jets at 4-12.  Apparently he's got the Bills splitting with these 2 teams and running the table in reverse on the rest of their schedule?

Edited April 21, 2018 by Epstein's Mother

[SinceThe70s]

??

[SouthNYfan]

19 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September.

That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did. 

 

As of now we are worse at at many levels of talent.

WR somehow worse than we were last year, which was already a dumpster fire.

We have no linebackers or offensive line to speak of.

While I thought it was time to move on from tyrod, we will be worse THIS YEAR at that position almost certainly in terms of production/turnovers but will be better in the long run with a young QB core.

We will win 4-6 games this year unless we hit the draft lottery/an mccarron lottery.

 

My post was in response to a guy saying we were #6 in the AFC which isn't even reasonable.

 

The raiders were a 12 win team the year before.

I'm not sure what happened last year, but it seemed like coaching, but they added gruden to the helm this year.

They are a better team than us.

 

The chargers started cold last year and then turned it around. They have a borderline HoF QB, a monster pass rush, and very good receivers (who were hurt early last year).

They are a very solid team.

 

The chiefs are a better team, we caught them in a nosedive, which was crazy to see that happen.

Unless mahomes is a complete tire fire they are a better team.

 

Your logic that we beat the raiders and chiefs makes us better is just not true in the NFL. 

Sometimes better teams crap the bed on a day.

I would say we did a little overachieving last year as a whole, I pegged us at 6-7 wins, as did most predictions.

 

We will be taking a step back this year, and I will say, unless our QB situation turns into the Golden goose overnight, we will be around 5-7 wins.

 

The QB situation also looks like it could be a flaming turd, depending on who we draft, he probably shouldn't start this year, and aj is a huge chance to trash, so 2-4 wins is actually a fair bit bold prediction if our QB situation is a mess.

Edited April 21, 2018 by SouthNYfan

[Epstein's Mother]

I trust that Vegas knows a lot more about what's going on than I do this guy.

 

Buffalo 2018 wins o/u  -  7

[DCOrange]

Obviously the draft can change things but I expect 5-7 wins which is basically the exact range Clay’s official predictions falls within. Think his predictions pegged Buffalo for 6 wins based on predicted point differential and that’s exactly where the Bills point differential ended up. 

[Mr. WEO]

EJ Gaines and Deonte Thompson were "solid starters"??  What a joke.

[thurst44]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Man do I hate the “who knows what will happen until the games are played?” arguement.  It’s reasonable t9 make educated guesses that can then be argued.  The alternative is never to speculate about anything. 

Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

[NoSaint]

49 minutes ago, teef said:

I could certainly see the bills being a couple of games worse this season, but a 7 game swing?  It’s just absurd. When was the last time this team was that bad?

 

The flip side is what if we were a 6-7 win team last year that was lucky with bounces and health and such.... the gap from 3 or so wins to 9 wins can be a McCoy ankle, tre white knee and not getting a call like the Marty ice fumble. Roll in questions at qb and who knows where we go 

[Gugny]

8 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

 

Just in case anyone was wondering (I did):

 

[SoCal Deek]

Hard to believe that 7-9 would be the worst team in the league...but who knows! ?

[4merper4mer]

58 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Pats

Chiefs

Steelers

Jags

Chargers

Raiders

Jaguars

 

That's 7 better

Titans are probably a coinflip

Broncos are better if keenum is even 70% of what he did last year

I can see being bullish on Jax, but you've taken it too far.

[thurst44]

21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

As of now we are worse at at many levels of talent.

WR somehow worse than we were last year, which was already a dumpster fire.

We have no linebackers or offensive line to speak of.

While I thought it was time to move on from tyrod, we will be worse THIS YEAR at that position almost certainly in terms of production/turnovers but will be better in the long run with a young QB core.

We will win 4-6 games this year unless we hit the draft lottery/an mccarron lottery.

 

My post was in response to a guy saying we were #6 in the AFC which isn't even reasonable.

 

The raiders were a 12 win team the year before.

I'm not sure what happened last year, but it seemed like coaching, but they added gruden to the helm this year.

They are a better team than us.

 

The chargers started cold last year and then turned it around. They have a borderline HoF QB, a monster pass rush, and very good receivers (who were hurt early last year).

They are a very solid team.

 

The chiefs are a better team, we caught them in a nosedive, which was crazy to see that happen.

Unless mahomes is a complete tire fire they are a better team.

 

Your logic that we beat the raiders and chiefs makes us better is just not true in the NFL. 

Sometimes better teams crap the bed on a day.

I would say we did a little overachieving last year as a whole, I pegged us at 6-7 wins, as did most predictions.

 

We will be taking a step back this year, and I will say, unless our QB situation turns into the Golden goose overnight, we will be around 5-7 wins.

 

The QB situation also looks like it could be a flaming turd, depending on who we draft, he probably shouldn't start this year, and aj is a huge chance to trash, so 2-4 wins is actually a fair bit bold prediction if our QB situation is a mess.

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin.

We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year)

Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year.

 

We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season.

 

We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. 

 

In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.

[Big Turk]

Have you lost your mind?

[RochesterRob]

7 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This guy is just looking for clicks

  Yep, and he looks for them in terms of where they are most apt to come from.  Boards such as this most likely are far more active than other boards especially if the NFL city also has MLB, NHL, and the NBA.

Edited April 21, 2018 by RochesterRob

[BarleyNY]

Just now, thurst44 said:

Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

[Talley56]

I seem to remember hardly anyone, even the majority of our fan base, giving us a chance to make the playoffs last year.

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I can see being bullish on Jax, but you've taken it too far.

 

Chiefs are better if mahomes is good.

They are a better team than us all around, much better offensively, we are a few ticks better defensively, but mahomes is a big question mark.

If he's good they're a top AFC team.

If he's not, then they aren't.

(Kind of like us with AJ, but I'd rather be in their QB situation than ours)

Raiders was an anomaly last year, they are very talented, Carr is very good, and gruden is running the show now.

Chargers are better at the places that matter most (QB, pass rush, receivers) and most likely will be better than us.

 

My point was the guy said we were the 6th best team in the AFC East unless proven otherwise.

I'm not sure why he thinks that off-season moves don't matter.

 

12 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin.

We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year)

Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year.

 

We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season.

 

We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. 

 

In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.

 

We are worse at wr.

Matthews is gone, Zay night not be fit to play, Benjamin had off-season knee surgery, again.

 

Lb Milano is very solid, but lorax is about 90 years old. We literally are barren at lb with zero depth.

 

Dline is very solid if star can regain his form previously under MCD, if he plays like last year he's a bust.

 

OLine we are a mess.

QB we are actually a step back unless AJ can perform at above average starter level (again, it was the right move and in the long term with the right draft choice we will be better)

 

We definitely aren't a 2 win team.

We also aren't the 9 win team we were last year, since what was an overachieve, though I was happy with the coaching and I think we are good for a while going forward.

 

This year should be viewed as a possible step back from last year in terms of W-L as we will be integrating many new young players and a brew QBs into the mix.

I see 6-7 wins this year as a solid number, with 4-5 possible in the cards depending on the QB situation.

 

People need to be realistic.

Optimism is 8 wins, but unrealistic looking at the schedule.

18 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

 

Exactly what I'm saying.

Point differential is tough to gauge this year with the QB position turnover though, but as I even said in my other response, if AJ is much better than expected, then we could rock 8-9 wins.

[thurst44]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

No, one poster said they are 6th until proven otherwise and the other kind of missed the point that he wasn't saying either way. Funny thing is, I don't think the two of us are all that far apart. I would not be shocked for us to be 6-10 (and as you said, improving), but I don't see this etched in stone as some (not saying you).

The point differential argument has bugged me, because of how it usually happens vs. how it happened for us. The score was run up in a three game stretch where the team was just terrible and outscored by 80 pts. They were 5-2 before that, 4-2 after that run. There's a strong argument that that stretch was an outlier, and that there's more to the story than that it's anything that would determine how they play next year. I would suggest that in the 4-2 ending where they only lost to the eventual AFC champions and they showed the character to not let their nosedive define them suggests more about this season than that three game stretch.

 

But in any case, let's look at point differential determining the next season for playoff teams. The four playoff teams with worse differentials (2010 Seahawks, 2011 Broncos, 2004 Rams, 1989 Steelers) were in their following season: 7-9, 13-3, 6-10, 9-7. 

 

As for positional rankings, I don't see how the CB situation IS worse at all. Tre White will have one more experience after a year where he was PFF's ROTY, Vontae Davis is a veteran, multi-year pro-bowler,  Philip Gaines, going in, is not appreciably worse than Leonard Johnson as backup, who they will still likely re-sign. OL, I'll give you, but we still don't even know wtf is going on with Richie and Cordy didn't do much of anything last year, so with the right side the same, it might not end up being that much of a downgrade. QB...well, I liked Tyrod more than most (a lot more than most), and AJ is a question mark at best, while the "rookie" is a literal question mark, so fair enough. WRs were a complete question mark going into last season, and it would be hard to be worse than that. LBs is for now questionable, Lorax looks less promising than going into last season and is older, Milano looks more promising, Humber more promising (but didn't promise much at all), and there's a big hole at middle linebacker instead of a player no one here seemed to think that much of at the time. But again, as you said, the rosters are anything but finished.

 

 

[BuckeyeBill]

I remember so many people for so many years saying that the Bills would be the worst team and they were always wrong.  Too bad too.  I would have liked a #1 pick.  Not since 1985 if I'm not mistaken.  I think 2-14 is better than 6-10.

[4merper4mer]

15 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Chiefs are better if mahomes is good.

They are a better team than us all around, much better offensively, we are a few ticks better defensively, but mahomes is a big question mark.

If he's good they're a top AFC team.

If he's not, then they aren't.

(Kind of like us with AJ, but I'd rather be in their QB situation than ours)

Raiders was an anomaly last year, they are very talented, Carr is very good, and gruden is running the show now.

Chargers are better at the places that matter most (QB, pass rush, receivers) and most likely will be better than us.

 

My point was the guy said we were the 6th best team in the AFC East unless proven otherwise.

I'm not sure why he thinks that off-season moves don't matter.

 

 

We are worse at wr.

Matthews is gone, Zay night not be fit to play, Benjamin had off-season knee surgery, again.

 

Lb Milano is very solid, but lorax is about 90 years old. We literally are barren at lb with zero depth.

 

Dline is very solid if star can regain his form previously under MCD, if he plays like last year he's a bust.

 

OLine we are a mess.

QB we are actually a step back unless AJ can perform at above average starter level (again, it was the right move and in the long term with the right draft choice we will be better)

 

We definitely aren't a 2 win team.

We also aren't the 9 win team we were last year, since what was an overachieve, though I was happy with the coaching and I think we are good for a while going forward.

 

This year should be viewed as a possible step back from last year in terms of W-L as we will be integrating many new young players and a brew QBs into the mix.

I see 6-7 wins this year as a solid number, with 4-5 possible in the cards depending on the QB situation.

 

People need to be realistic.

Optimism is 8 wins, but unrealistic looking at the schedule.

 

Exactly what I'm saying.

Point differential is tough to gauge this year with the QB position turnover though, but as I even said in my other response, if AJ is much better than expected, then we could rock 8-9 wins.

Dude.  You came up with 7 better teams and two of them were the Jags.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

48 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Just in case anyone was wondering (I did):

 

That’s quite accurate 

[SouthNYfan]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Dude.  You came up with 7 better teams and two of them were the Jags.

 

I failed at typing.

I meant the last spot as the Titans, then I said but they were probably a coinflip.

Totally didn't mean to write the jags twice ??

[BuckeyeBill]

Hauschka will win us at least two games himself.

Edited April 21, 2018 by BuckeyeBill

[thurst44]

10 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

We are worse at wr.

Matthews is gone, Zay night not be fit to play, Benjamin had off-season knee surgery, again.

Benjamin was not here when we started last year, Matthews had questions going in. Zay hadn't played a game last year (he may be imploding, or he may see the yips and a near-death experience as the impetus to take the next step). Jeremy Kerley is slightly better than Andre Holmes (who is still here and likely better than Philly Brown) and Deonte Thompson was a mid-season replacement so also wasn't there at the start. Not worse. At worst, impossible to say. It's a bit of a silly argument though as my point is mostly that our WR was pretty awful going into last season .

 

Anyway, I think we're not that far apart on opinions, but just feel it's a bit more wide open. My initial reaction (more tart than I meant it) was that the poster was not saying anything about current quality of teams, and likely more making the point that last year when we started so many people here predicted we were tanking and we went 9-7. Oddly, I might be more inclined to believe the 2 win season a possibility (although i'm tired of the prognosticators teeing off on the bills), but that a 2 loss is also not impossible. Also, as Barley has hinted at, there's still a lot of moves to be made. Go Bills! 

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

Benjamin was not here when we started last year, Matthews had questions going in. Zay hadn't played a game last year (he may be imploding, or he may see the yips and a near-death experience as the impetus to take the next step). Jeremy Kerley is slightly better than Andre Holmes (who is still here and likely better than Philly Brown) and Deonte Thompson was a mid-season replacement so also wasn't there at the start. Not worse. At worst, impossible to say. It's a bit of a silly argument though as my point is mostly that our WR was pretty awful going into last season .

 

Anyway, I think we're not that far apart on opinions, but just feel it's a bit more wide open. My initial reaction (more tart than I meant it) was that the poster was not saying anything about current quality of teams, and likely more making the point that last year when we started so many people here predicted we were tanking and we went 9-7. Oddly, I might be more inclined to believe the 2 win season a possibility (although i'm tired of the prognosticators teeing off on the bills), but that a 2 loss is also not impossible. Also, as Barley has hinted at, there's still a lot of moves to be made. Go Bills! 

 

 

 

Let's assume we are the same.

We were hot garbage at wr last year lol

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeBill said:

Hauschka will win us at least two games himself.

 

Assuming we get into fg range

[thurst44]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Let's assume we are the same.

We were hot garbage at wr last year lol

Haha, fair enough. We'll see where we are in September. 

[SouthNYfan]

4 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Haha, fair enough. We'll see where we are in September. 

 

Andre Reed could probably still be our #2

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

The idiots said the same thing last year and the year before and the year before that.  

[Behindenemylines]

9 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Wow you put that all together by yourself?!? Good job little buddy! Now if we can just get you to stop shitting your bed and drooling on yourself

Wow a bit aggressive don't you think?

[The Frankish Reich]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

The Mike Clay references in this article are completely off base. Clay, personally, is not predicting the Bills to go an NFL-worst 2-14. He personally projects them to go 5-11 (which is curiously ALSO the worst NFL record in 2018). The referenced prediction is a somewhat arbitrary exercise/experiment in forecasting, which he's entirely open about and not at all personally married to. Check out his Twitter feed on the subject, and his subsequent interactions with #BillsMafia (cited by Rodak as well). Just sayin: bad reporting.

 

But in the spirit of healthy debate: is it THAT unfathomable to Bills fans that the 2018 team (which has very little to do with the 2017 team) might not win many games?

Even with exactly the same roster, all other things being equal, we start out by assuming that the Bills will have a worse record in 2018, simply because our points allowed: points scored ratio generally would have equated to a worse record:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-way-everybody-measures-nfl-schedule-strength-its-wrong/

 

Revisiting the 2017 NFL season

The teams that had the biggest discrepancies between their actual win totals and their expected win totals based on points scored and allowed

BIGGEST CLIMBERS
TEAM	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	DIFF
Cleveland	0	3.3	+3.3
Jacksonville	10	11.8	+1.8
Tampa Bay	5	6.8	+1.8
Houston	4	5.7	+1.7
Baltimore	9	10.4	+1.4
BIGGEST DROPPERS
TEAM	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	DIFF
Buffalo	9	6.4	-2.6
Pittsburgh	13	10.5	-2.5
Carolina	11	9	-2.0
Arizona	8	6.1	-1.9
Tennessee	9	7.4	-1.6

SOURCE: PRO-FOOTBALL-REFERENCE.COM

[BobChalmers]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...pretty pathetic how it happens EVERY year..........and of course they NEVER come back to do mea culpas when they badly missed..............

 

What I like is how this happens EVERY year RIGHT HERE ON TBD!!

 

And EVERY YEAR I offer $500 or so on 8-8 vs. their asinine 2-14, 4-12 predictions, and EVERY YEAR they go silent.

 

There's just a whole heaping pile of stupid on the internet, and you don't even have to go looking to find it.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, klos63 said:

Just in general, to make any prediction before the draft, mini camp, training camp.... is ridiculous. I also always found reporters predictions to be such a stupid exercise. I mean, who cares what they think, they're predictions have no more credibility than any of ours. Just an ego trip.

 

Obviously you care or you wouldn't be posting as is everyone who's responded in this thread and the 1000's who likely read the article.  It's an article which he's paid to write in the hopes that people read and talk about which is what is happening here.  There are only 256 wins in an NFL season (unless you're ESPN) so looking at it objectively that's what he thinks they will add up to.  It has nothing to do with EGO, he's just doing his job, but god help anyone who says anything in the slightest negative about the Bills. Then he becomes this terrible person.  Will he be right, who knows, probably some teams records will be close to his predictions, but some will be way off either better or worse.

 

I'm sure if he had predicted an 11-5 record he'd be praised around here.  Jay S predicted 6-10, so is he on an ego trip also??

[The Frankish Reich]

So which team (pre-draft! pre-preseason! pre-injuries!) projects to be the worst in the NFL this year? Right now, I'd go with Miami, which just took big steps backwards in multiple ways. Now if Tannehill comes all the way back and is his old (mediocre) self, that may change. So really, let's be honest here: other than Miami, aren't the Bills in the mix with Indy (assuming Andrew Luck isn't the same old Andrew Luck, or at least isn't for a large part of the season), the Jets, the Bears, the Browns (who WILL win games, probably at least 5)?  Other teams with worse records clearly have strong cases for massive improvement: the Giants, the Bucs, the Niners (obviously), Texans (Watson/Watt).  There's always a freaky team that plummets to the bottom (see Giants, 2017) so there is that, but I gotta say ... it's not insane to project the Bills as one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2018. I wish that wasn't the case, but this ain't about wishes and fairies and leprechauns ...

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[BobChalmers]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'm sure if he had predicted an 11-5 record he'd be praised around here.  Jay S predicted 6-10, so is he on an ego trip also??

 

Uhm - no, if someone said 11-5 I'd say they are probably nuts.

 

falling back to 6-10 given the upheaval and tough schedule isn't unreasonable but I'd say that's at the low end of it.

 

The idiots who every year say the Bills will get 4+ games WORSE than the prior year with logic like "because Bills" are tiresome.

 

Dropping from 9-7 to 2-14 this year is a ridiculous prediction.  Almost certainly from one of TT's national-media idiot suck-ups who never watched him play.

[The Frankish Reich]

12 minutes ago, BobChalmers said:

 

Uhm - no, if someone said 11-5 I'd say they are probably nuts.

 

falling back to 6-10 given the upheaval and tough schedule isn't unreasonable but I'd say that's at the low end of it.

 

The idiots who every year say the Bills will get 4+ games WORSE than the prior year with logic like "because Bills" are tiresome.

 

Dropping from 9-7 to 2-14 this year is a ridiculous prediction.  Almost certainly from one of TT's national-media idiot suck-ups who never watched him play.

Well, first of all, it's pretty much an average schedule. Some difficult out-of-conference games for sure, and the Pats in the division, but we also always get the Dolphins and Jets 4X, so it evens out. But I think 6-10 is pretty realistic, not as a low end, but as an actual prediction (right now; things will change). I see more upside than downside - if McCarron is at least Tyrod-good, if the draft fills a couple big holes, if players (Benjamin is a huge one) stay healthy, I could see a 2017 repeat. Downside? It's hard not to win at least 4 or 5 games in the NFL (example: the Bears were a bad team last year, playing in a division with no gimmees, and they still won 5), and there's enough talent on the roster (and those 4 in-division games ought to generate at least 2 wins as a starting point) that 5-11 is my realistic worst case scenario.

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[thurst44]

31 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Even with exactly the same roster, all other things being equal, we start out by assuming that the Bills will have a worse record in 2018, simply because our points allowed: points scored ratio generally would have equated to a worse record:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-way-everybody-measures-nfl-schedule-strength-its-wrong/

 

Revisiting the 2017 NFL season

The teams that had the biggest discrepancies between their actual win totals and their expected win totals based on points scored and allowed

BIGGEST CLIMBERS
TEAM	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	DIFF
Cleveland	0	3.3	+3.3
Jacksonville	10	11.8	+1.8
Tampa Bay	5	6.8	+1.8
Houston	4	5.7	+1.7
Baltimore	9	10.4	+1.4
BIGGEST DROPPERS
TEAM	WINS	EXPECTED WINS	DIFF
Buffalo	9	6.4	-2.6
Pittsburgh	13	10.5	-2.5
Carolina	11	9	-2.0
Arizona	8	6.1	-1.9
Tennessee	9	7.4	-1.6

SOURCE: PRO-FOOTBALL-REFERENCE.COM

Again, not to try to find the silver lining in everything, but there is a non-biased reason to believe the Bills are an outlier in this theory, and this is a case where the stats might not be telling the whole story. I'd like to see the stats for before and after our nosedive. Yes, the worst games happened, but we watched the season and know how the season played out. That was a historically bad three-game stretch which kind of spiraled out of control and were outscored by 80 pts. It does seem important to gauging the quality of a team, how these losses and stats happened. It really seems more telling how they were able to get it back together after it epically fell apart, and I'd be curious to see how 538 would address that.

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by thurst44

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Again, not to try to find the silver lining in everything, but there is a non-biased reason to believe the Bills are an outlier in this theory, and this is a case where the stats might not be telling the whole story. I'd like to see the stats for before and after our nosedive. Yes, the worst games happened, but we watched the season and know how the season played out. That was a historically bad three-game stretch which kind of spiraled out of control and were outscored by 80 pts. It does seem important to gauging the quality of a team, how these losses and stats happened. It really seems more telling how they were able to get it back together after it epically fell apart, and I'd be curious to see how 538 would address that.

 

Valid point. And (although lots of teams can play the same game here, so maybe it's not fair doing this for our team?) we have to remember that point differential in 2017 was inflated by 2 disastrous losses - the Peterman Game (as it shall forevermore be known) and that Saints blowout. Take those games away, and we look a lot more like a legit 9-7 last year.  Point differential is a much better measure of success in baseball where you play 10 times more games and where even a "blowout" is a loss by 6 or 7 runs, whereas the NFL equivalent is a loss by 25 or 40 points ....

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[JOSH HUFF]

I have to think that this is a rough season,  especially if they through all the picks in for a QB.  O-line is a mess, best players are old, no proven QB.  Right now we look like the Browns of the past few years.  Speaking of the Browns they will be much better this season.