Greg Cosell Breaks Down Baker Mayfield

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[I'm Spartacus]

4 minutes ago, Bandito said:

We need to draft this guy!

 

If he wears lift's in his shoes, I say yes.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 minutes ago, Bandito said:

We need to draft this guy!

If he’s there in the fourth it’s worth considering 

[starrymessenger]

One issue I have with Baker is that although much of what we've seen from him is good that may be the best that we will ever see - in other words he may have maxed out. What you see is what you get. That's not bad but maybe we can do better.

I'm not sure I see a lot of upside there, unlike some of the other QBs in this class. How exactly does he "develop"? Add to that the fact that his best looks may be scheme dependant and I'd think twice before drafting him at or near the top of the first.

If I thought that he could learn to execute well from an NFL pocket, specifically patiently working longer developing routes (not just the quick hitters) while still seeing the passing lanes (including therefore going through true progressions rather than just coverage reads) I'd feel a lot better about him. Idk if he can do that.

Edited April 20, 2018 by starrymessenger

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

One issue I have with Baker is that although much of what we've seen from him is good that may be the best that we will ever see - in other words he may have maxed out. What you see is what you get. That's not bad but maybe we can do better.

I'm not sure I see a lot of upside there, unlike some of the other QBs in this class.

Interesting point, that's been in the back of my mind lately as well. He is playing to his maximum potential, which is a good thing if he can stay there. His whole life so far it seems that he has over-achieved when it comes to football. Will he continue to have the motivation to do so at the next level? it appears as though he will, and if so he could be great, but if not?...

[starrymessenger]

9 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Interesting point, that's been in the back of my mind lately as well. He is playing to his maximum potential, which is a good thing if he can stay there. His whole life so far it seems that he has over-achieved when it comes to football. Will he continue to have the motivation to do so at the next level? it appears as though he will, and if so he could be great, but if not?...

 

I dont myself feel that it's a motivational issue. He's a great kid and I love his moxie. I'm worried about his being a scheme baby and therefore maybe so limited at the end of the day that you come away with the feeling that he was just another really good college QB. To be really good at the next level I think he needs to be more like Drew. Drew Brees is not a world class athlete, he's not big and he doesn't have more arm strength than Baker, but no one is more at home in and around an NFL pocket. I just don't know that Mayfield can be more like that guy.

Edited April 20, 2018 by starrymessenger

[K-9]

My preference is for a player that can step in and play right away if not needing a shorter time on the bench learning the ropes. Lot to like about Mayfield, especially his "compete" to coin a phrase from Ted Nolan, but he's going to need some time before he's ready, imo. Not saying I wouldn't like getting him but I'd be hoping McCarron can be an effective bridge longer than I'd like. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

Thank you for this!  Cosell isn't always correct, but he's very careful and thorough with his film.  So if he says things that differ from other analysts, such as Mayfield being primarily a 1-read thrower, or not knowing where to go with the ball against the blitz - it's worthy of careful consideration.

 

8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

My preference is for a player that can step in and play right away if not needing a shorter time on the bench learning the ropes. Lot to like about Mayfield, especially his "compete" to coin a phrase from Ted Nolan, but he's going to need some time before he's ready, imo. Not saying I wouldn't like getting him but I'd be hoping McCarron can be an effective bridge longer than I'd like. 

 

I could be wrong, but I think he's a player who could be effective in the NFL right away given a strong running game and an offense initially tailored to what he can do

19 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Interesting point, that's been in the back of my mind lately as well. He is playing to his maximum potential, which is a good thing if he can stay there. His whole life so far it seems that he has over-achieved when it comes to football. Will he continue to have the motivation to do so at the next level? it appears as though he will, and if so he could be great, but if not?...

 

That's really the "Elephant in the Room" question for all of these guys.  People make a deal of saying it about Rosen, but it applies to every single draft prospect - sometimes for different reasons.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you for this!  Cosell isn't always correct, but he's very careful and thorough with his film.  So if he says things that differ from other analysts, such as Mayfield being primarily a 1-read thrower, or not knowing where to go with the ball against the blitz - it's worthy of careful consideration.

 

 

I could be wrong, but I think he's a player who could be effective in the NFL right away given a strong running game and an offense initially tailored to what he can do

Not saying he isn't going to be effective eventually, but I have concerns about him working from under center initially. He's just never done it. And it takes time to master. 

[JohnC]

16 minutes ago, K-9 said:

My preference is for a player that can step in and play right away if not needing a shorter time on the bench learning the ropes. Lot to like about Mayfield, especially his "compete" to coin a phrase from Ted Nolan, but he's going to need some time before he's ready, imo. Not saying I wouldn't like getting him but I'd be hoping McCarron can be an effective bridge longer than I'd like. 

Other than Rosen I see Mayfield as the next most ready qb to play. I'll even go so far to say that I believe that BM will be more quickly ready to play than Darnold. As with each qb, and probably more so with Mayfield, the OC will have to design an offense to the particular skill set of each young qb. 

[US Egg]

I was looking at my kids numerous old draft preview magazines written by the "experts" going back to 2010. 

 

It's amazing how not even close they are year in and out and yet continue to publish. I said to my kid, these things are like reading fiction. 

 

 

[K-9]

Just now, JohnC said:

Other than Rosen I see Mayfield as the next most ready qb to play. I'll even go so far to say that I believe that BM will be more quickly ready to play than Darnold. As with each qb, and probably more so with Mayfield, the OC will have to design an offense to the particular skill set of each young qb. 

He probably is the "next most" ready to play. I don't dispute that. But there is only one QB in this draft that is, imo, ready from day one; Rosen. We'll have to hitch the wagon to McCarron until anybody else is ready. I can live with that, though. 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

He probably is the "next most" ready to play. I don't dispute that. But there is only one QB in this draft that is, imo, ready from day one; Rosen. We'll have to hitch the wagon to McCarron until anybody else is ready. I can live with that, though. 

I agree that Rosen is the most ready qb in this draft. He reminds me of Goff with a picturesque throwing motion. I also believe that he is much more advanced as a player coming into the league compared to Goff because he is more capable of reading defenses and going through progressions. As a rookie qb he is not only the most advanced as a player in this year's draft class but more advanced than I have seen in a number of years. With a lesser trade down he would be a tremendous pick. 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Greg Cosell is one of the few "pundits" whose opinions I actually care for. Very detailed in his film study. I'm not sure just how knowledgeable he is in regards to breaking down QBs, but his ability to "see" and dissect the game is uncanny. 

 

I wouldn't mind drafting Baker, but I don't see him coming into the league and lighting it up immediately like Watson did last year. The positives in Cosell's break down outweigh the negatives IMO, but I feel like he'll make some really boneheaded mistakes over the first couple of seasons. Sitting behind AJ for 6-7 games like Trubisky (or more, if AJ doesn't look like Glennon) and being able to focus more on his footwork would serve him well.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[26CornerBlitz]

4-20: Greg Cosell of NFL Films on the John Murphy Show (21:48)

[BigBuff423]

The criticisms of Mayfield’s game are concerning and often willfully ignored by those who are enamored by his positive traits. I totally understand the love for his play and he’s got real potential but what Cosell highlights in terms of detractions are difficult to overcome at the NFL level. JMO

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..putting aside personal preferences, what is the hunch as far as McBeane?.................

[K-9]

15 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

The criticisms of Mayfield’s game are concerning and often willfully ignored by those who are enamored by his positive traits. I totally understand the love for his play and he’s got real potential but what Cosell highlights in terms of detractions are difficult to overcome at the NFL level. JMO

Very true. Which is why I think he's more of a project for a year or two vs. a day one starter. If he goes to a market like New York and is forced to play from the get-go, he's gonna get roasted by the media and fans. It will be worse than Johnny Football's fall from grace in Cleveland in terms of the fans' patience. If he can go there and hold a clipboard while working on his game and learning to become a pro, I think he can flourish there. 

[jr1]

mobile with a high completion percentage. Sign me up

[Wily Dog]

I am not a Mayfield  supporter . I heard a report today and didn't get the guys name , but he said Mayfield's time in the 40 was between 4.8 -4.9. That gives me pause because as a running QB he will be in trouble every time he rolls out as most of the pursuit is made up of people who run far less than 4.8. Even some of the linemen do better than 4.8. What does the Baker supporters say in his defense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

Not saying he isn't going to be effective eventually, but I have concerns about him working from under center initially. He's just never done it. And it takes time to master. 

 

Many an effective NFL QB has played a game almost entirely from shotgun.

 

Teams that played <30% of their snaps from under center last year include Carolina, Detroit, Philly, Pitts, and KC.

When they were under center, they only passed 22-31% of the time.  So they only passed from under center <10% of the time if my math is right.

 

 

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Many an effective NFL QB has played a game almost entirely from shotgun.

 

Teams that played <30% of their snaps from under center last year include Carolina, Detroit, Philly, Pitts, and KC.

When they were under center, they only passed 22-31% of the time.  So they only passed from under center <10% of the time if my math is right.

 

 

Although there are certain timing schemes that rely on snaps from under center, operating from under center is about more than just the passing game. It affords much more scheme flexibility when you can present varying alignments to a defense. Regardless, it is an aspect of the pro game that needs to be developed in QBs that have never done it. I’m sure Mayfield won’t have any problem eventually, but I suspect there will be bumps initially; on top of the bumps associated with learning the pro game anyway. In the system he’s coming from, he hasn’t seen the diversity in defenses on a week to week basis for instance.

 

All I’m saying is, like most rookie QBs, I don’t think he’s a day one starter and I hope his development isn’t hurt by being forced to start before he’s ready. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Although there are certain timing schemes that rely on snaps from under center, operating from under center is about more than just the passing game. It affords much more scheme flexibility when you can present varying alignments to a defense. Regardless, it is an aspect of the pro game that needs to be developed in QBs that have never done it. I’m sure Mayfield won’t have any problem eventually, but I suspect there will be bumps initially; on top of the bumps associated with learning the pro game anyway. In the system he’s coming from, he hasn’t seen the diversity in defenses on a week to week basis for instance.

 

All I’m saying is, like most rookie QBs, I don’t think he’s a day one starter and I hope his development isn’t hurt by being forced to start before he’s ready. 

 

I am not arguing about whether a pro QB should be able to operate under center.  It is quite possible that I understand something about scheme?  Certainly Mayfield will need to learn to take snaps from under center.

 

I'm saying is factually, &nbsp;a number of successful offenses

1) operate very little from under center - as little as 24% of total snaps

2) when they are under center, don't pass much - less than 30% of their snaps under center

 

Therefore, a successful offensive scheme could be devised for Baker Mayfield's strengths which had work very minimally under center, and not pass much when he's there

 

If the reason you feel he's not a day 1 starter is because he's never worked under center, that can be adapted for initially.  That is all.

 

If Cosell is correct that he's really a 1-read-and-throw QB, he will have other problems and he might need some time.

[Virgil]

1 - Mayfield

2/3 - Darnold/Rosen

[peterpan]

I think a lot of fans as usual are overlooking the flaws that a spread offense can hide.  Mayfield is good but not great at many things.  Slow with his reads and poor or rather inconsistent footwork.  I won't be surprised if Mayfield falls in this draft.  I could see him doing well in a few years, right system etc, but I could also see him flame out.

[dave mcbride]

Good line: "Too many snaps with his head working side-to-side indicating he saw everything and saw nothing."

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Good line: "Too many snaps with his head working side-to-side indicating he saw everything and saw nothing."

 

It is a good line.  Maybe I’m totally missing it with Baker but I see an assassin when he’s on the run, like Russell Wilson and maybe Brett Favre.  He keeps his eyes downfield while moving and is dead-accurate throwing on the run.  Maybe folks are right that he’ll live and die by whether he can work the pocket like Brees but I’m not convinced it’s a must in today’s NFL.  Offenses are changing.

[HappyDays]

I had Mayfield as my #1 QB a couple weeks ago but he's solidly my #3 now. QBs that come from spread systems don't work out very often. He will need some time learning NFL offenses and refining his mechanics.

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

It is a good line.  Maybe I’m totally missing it with Baker but I see an assassin when he’s on the run, like Russell Wilson and maybe Brett Favre.  He keeps his eyes downfield while moving and is dead-accurate throwing on the run.  Maybe folks are right that he’ll live and die by whether he can work the pocket like Brees but I’m not convinced it’s a must in today’s NFL.  Offenses are changing.

Don't get me wrong -- I think he'll be a good pro and perhaps the best of the lot.

[KOKBILLS]

QB1

[K-9]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I am not arguing about whether a pro QB should be able to operate under center.  It is quite possible that I understand something about scheme?  Certainly Mayfield will need to learn to take snaps from under center.

 

I'm saying is factually, &nbsp;a number of successful offenses

1) operate very little from under center - as little as 24% of total snaps

2) when they are under center, don't pass much - less than 30% of their snaps under center

 

Therefore, a successful offensive scheme could be devised for Baker Mayfield's strengths which had work very minimally under center, and not pass much when he's there

 

If the reason you feel he's not a day 1 starter is because he's never worked under center, that can be adapted for initially.  That is all.

 

If Cosell is correct that he's really a 1-read-and-throw QB, he will have other problems and he might need some time.

I wasn’t insulting your understanding of schemes. Sorry if it came across that way.

 

Operating from under center is a required skill. I will just let it go at that. 

 

He is a one read QB because all he has seen most of the time is a steady diet of some version of quarters zone coverage in college. So yeah, that’s a bigger concern making the jump.

Edited April 21, 2018 by K-9

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Good line: "Too many snaps with his head working side-to-side indicating he saw everything and saw nothing."

 

I have just consistently had a feeling with Mayfield that there is a false read in what you see of him on tape.   I think this Cosell take kind of sums it up.  He's good but he's also a hustler trained in showing people what they want to see to get him where he wants to be.

 

Still a good prospect but I have had him a significant notch below Darnold and Rosen.    I really like all of the top 5 prospects but Darnold and Rosen are just much cleaner prospects IMO.   

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

It is a good line.  Maybe I’m totally missing it with Baker but I see an assassin when he’s on the run, like Russell Wilson and maybe Brett Favre.  He keeps his eyes downfield while moving and is dead-accurate throwing on the run.  Maybe folks are right that he’ll live and die by whether he can work the pocket like Brees but I’m not convinced it’s a must in today’s NFL.  Offenses are changing.

 

 

The thing is........he isn't nearly the athlete of Wilson OR nearly the big, strong armed QB that Favre was.    He's clearly not the pro style QB/passer Brees was/is either.  If he makes it big he will be a one-of-a-kind....... but he sure has a knack of drawing comparisons to greats because he has or at least seems to show *some* traits they have.

 

I saw a Jeff Garcia comparison.........that seems to be a much better comparison to me.    Jeff Garcia was very good until he hit his early 30's........if you got his best play for a decade you'd have gotten excellent QB play.   

[Coach Tuesday]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The thing is........he isn't nearly the athlete of Wilson OR nearly the big, strong armed QB that Favre was.    He's clearly not the pro style QB/passer Brees was/is either.  If he makes it big he will be a one-of-a-kind....... but he sure has a knack of drawing comparisons to greats because he has or at least seems to show *some* traits they have.

 

I saw a Jeff Garcia comparison.........that seems to be a much better comparison to me.    Jeff Garcia was very good until he hit his early 30's........if you got his best play for a decade you'd have gotten excellent QB play.   

 

And you may be right.  Certainly you're right that he's not the athlete Wilson is and he doesn't have Favre's arm (tho his arm seems stronger than Garcia's was).  But as I said, I've never seen someone who can throw the ball so accurately downfield while moving.  Does that trait alone guarantee success?  Definitely not.  But I think that trait, coupled with his high processing speed (his analytic test scores suggest some of Cossell's analysis is misplaced) and his desire to be the best will vault him to stardom.

 

Then again, I am no expert evaluator.  I just go by my own eyes - I saw Mayfield destroy good defenses over and over again, it looked almost effortless, and defenses who tried to move him out of the pocket paid dearly for it.

 

Also this:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/greg-cosells-nfl-draft-breakdown-accomplished-deshaun-watson-has-areas-to-work-on-164552341.html

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by Coach Tuesday

[T master]

16 hours ago, jr1 said:

mobile with a high completion percentage. Sign me up

 

 

Flute 2.0 I'm In !! 

[starrymessenger]

17 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

..putting aside personal preferences, what is the hunch as far as McBeane?.................

 

He is not a target IMO. If we were planning on installing a college system (or at best a customized hybrid combo of college and pro concepts) why get rid of Tyrod Taylor. If your franchise fancy is a dual threat QB not only is Taylor your best mentor but as we've seen you will get much better production from Tyrod too as he sets the table for Baker in a RPO offence. We know what happens when you try to force Tyrod into the classic pocket passer mould and that hardly seems to be the scheme suited to Mayfield either. But it suits Rosen or Darnold pretty well (and our current placeholder McCarron).

Although it doesn't make a lot of sense to me personally, the Brown's overpaying for Taylor with the 65th pick suggests that they may indeed be swinging for the fences and taking Allen instead of Darnold.

My sense of it is that Beane and the Bills want a traditional pocket passer, especially after seeing how they managed Cam in Carolina.

[Mojo44]

Only at number 12 and that’s if Rosen is not there.Too many question marks about him, not the least of which is his height  To me he is, by far, the most overrated of the top four. Would rather the bills not get him but I’ll support it if they do.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

 

He is not a target IMO. If we were planning on installing a college system (or at best a customized hybrid combo of college and pro concepts) why get rid of Tyrod Taylor. If your franchise fancy is a dual threat QB not only is Taylor your best mentor but as we've seen you will get much better production from Tyrod too as he sets the table for Baker in a RPO offence. We know what happens when you try to force Tyrod into the classic pocket passer mould and that hardly seems to be the scheme suited to Mayfield either. But it suits Rosen or Darnold pretty well (and our current placeholder McCarron).

Although it doesn't make a lot of sense to me personally, the Brown's overpaying for Taylor with the 65th pick suggests that they may indeed be swinging for the fences and taking Allen instead of Darnold.

My sense of it is that Beane and the Bills want a traditional pocket passer, especially after seeing how they managed Cam in Carolina.

 

....thanks for the assessment....much appreciated bud......seems like "traditional pocket passer" leaves Jackson out of the mix as well?............

[starrymessenger]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....thanks for the assessment....much appreciated bud......seems like "traditional pocket passer" leaves Jackson out of the mix as well?............

 

Your welcome. For what it's worth (probably not much) I don't think Jackson is out of the discussion as a pocket passer and therefore someone who might interest Beane. Right now the only throw he makes on a consistently accurate basis is the inside slant. He can make all other required throws but his accuracy is inconsistent, especially on out patterns. Some analysts are of the view that his flaws re lower body mechanics are very correctable. Beane's moves can be interpreted as a gigantic Lamar smokescreen ie don't bring him in, move to 12 to leap frog Zona, feign interest in moving up etc...but obviously that's a real stretch. I actually think they may be more intrigued with Allen than with Lamar.

[K-9]

13 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Good line: "Too many snaps with his head working side-to-side indicating he saw everything and saw nothing."

That is a good line. Now we gotta get him to yell, "Omaha!", to really sell it.