Jump to content

(rumor). Bills-Browns-Giants-Crazy "Dunkirk" type tweet.


PIZ

Recommended Posts

All of this guy's information hinges on Russ Brandon telling ultra-high level top-secret stuff to a buddy, who happens to be this guy's boss.

 

If that's true, Russ should be fired immediately.


Well, he should have been fired a long time ago, but you see my point.

 

I assume it's all made up or something is off here so no big deal.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy?

 

Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds:

Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72

Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21

Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96

 

Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%)

Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%)

 

After the madness:

Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97

Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81

Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87

 

Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday!

  • Like (+1) 3
  • Thank you (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... 

 

theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. 

 

What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up 

Edited by NoSaint
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, stony said:

It's fun to piss on these scenarios, but it's not that crazy. 

 

Based on the "Cleveland war room" thread, maybe the Browns really like Mayfield.  If they can grab a couple extra picks, why not?  Giants still get Chubb/Barkley.  

 

As for draft season ridiculousness, I only rate this a 5/10.

I agree it's not totally crazy; it all hinges on who these teams really want and what they REALLY want to do.


If you are happy to get X but the draft value of your pick is greater than X, it only makes sense to trade, increase your draft capital, while retaining what you need to get what you want.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PIZ said:

I'm not an expert on Twitter, as I just read it.  Does this mean Sal M actually liked this kid's tweet?

 

 

 

It means someone likely showed him or he saw here and thought it was a fine enough way to get some traffic this afternoon 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... 

 

theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. 

 

What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up 

See the thread here where allegedly 2/3 of the teams in the league have Darnold as the #1 QB in the draft.

 

I think he is the #1 target.


 I think you have to pick #1, maybe #2 to get him.  Anything lower no  dice.

 

 

Edited by Fadingpain
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Fadingpain said:

See the thread here where allegedly 2/3 of the teams in the league have Darnold as the #1 QB in the draft.

 

I think he is the #1 target and if that is the guy we want.


 I think you have to pick #1, maybe #2 to get him.  Anything lower no  dice.

 

 

 

So you think that Cleveland and the giants are 100% all in on Cleveland to two? Or are they willing to trade out of 1 and hope Allen’s there at 4?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy?

 

Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds:

Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72

Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21

Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96

 

Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%)

Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%)

 

After the madness:

Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97

Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81

Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87

 

Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday!

Thanks for doing this....pretty awesome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... 

 

theres at least 4(?) more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. 

 

What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up 

I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above.

 

We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down.

 

Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd.

 

Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds.

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Thanks for doing this....pretty awesome.

I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... 

 

theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. 

 

What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up 

 

 

 

A lot of people connected to the Giants say they are taking Darnold if he's there, it's a consistent refrain, it could be complete smoke or it could be legit.  It could be a reasonably safe assumption if we want Darnold, we need to go to 1.  Once we go to 1 and the Giants know Darnold is off the table, they could be open to dropping to 4 and getting the same player at 2, getting more picks and giving the Jets a little kick while they are at it.  Also, the price of 1 vs the price of 2 might not be all that much different.

 

I don't buy the kid has any insider info, but if you do some theory crafting this is a decently logical scenario to arrive at, one I've been kicking over in my own head the last few days.    

 

The other problem, if the Browns put the pick up and we don't go get it, then we are really risking getting locked out and watching 4 QBs go top 5 with no chance at any of them.

 

 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above.

 

We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down.

 

Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd.

 

Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds.

I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun.

 

 

Good work.  I'd give that package without hesitation.

 

I'm sure there's been extensive conversations between the teams.  If the Giants say they want to stay top 5 this accomplishes it.  If the Browns don't want Darnold, this gives them a chance to recoup value for Darnold while still getting their top guy.  It also gives us a chance to get our top guy.

Edited by Chuck Wagon
  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

 

A lot of people connected to the Giants say they are taking Darnold if he's there, it's a consistent refrain, it could be complete smoke or it could be legit.  It could be a reasonably safe assumption if we want Darnold, we need to go to 1.  Once we go to 1 and the Giants know Darnold is off the table, they could be open to dropping to 4 and getting the same player at 2, getting more picks and giving the Jets a little kick while they are at it.  Also, the price of 1 vs the price of 2 might not be all that much different.

 

I don't buy the kid has any insider info, but if you do some theory crafting this is a decently logical scenario to arrive at, one I've been kicking over in my own head the last few days.    

 

The other problem, if the Browns put the pick up and we don't go get it, then we are really risking getting locked out and watching 4 QBs go top 5 with no chance at any of them.

 

But if the giants want Darnold badly all they have to say is no to letting Cleveland still get their guy at two.... unless Cleveland is fine waiting til 4 to take what’s left.

 

The giants potentially wanting Darnold seems like a monkey wrench in the trade to 1 to get Darnold plan here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above.

 

We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down.

 

Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd.

 

Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds.

I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun.

 

Maybe- it just seems in many cases a team in the top few spots is either yes or no on the qb... there’s rarely a lot of “I think he’s my franchise guy but if I could get a rb and a day two lineman instead....”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above.

 

We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down.

 

Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd.

 

Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds.

I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun.

Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. 

Edited by cle23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

But if the giants want Darnold badly all they have to say is no to letting Cleveland still get their guy at two.... unless Cleveland is fine waiting til 4 to take what’s left.

 

The giants potentially wanting Darnold seems like a monkey wrench in the trade to 1 to get Darnold plan here.

 

IF one is to believe the supposed Browns insider their decision making is pretty well split between Baker and Rosen.  They could have all 4 graded at a level where they are comfortable taking any of them and are fine assuming the risk of going to the 4th guy.

 

Personally I tend to believe the Giants Darnold interest is smoke.  But I think it's possible we've hammered something out with the Giants and it's contingent upon Darnold, the Giants want to stay top 5 to get Chubb or Barkley, the Browns said "we aren't taking Darnold anyway, give us something and we'll help make this happen".

 

The point I always go back to, if we don't know there's something very possible for one of these QBs, we've wasted A TON of draft prep time.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy?

 

Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds:

Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72

Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21

Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96

 

Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%)

Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%)

 

After the madness:

Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97

Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81

Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87

 

Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday!

Yup. It's a win win win scenario. That is if Cleveland does not want to draft darnold 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. 

They didn't essentially trade down from 4, they traded up from 4 to 2. Of course the team that trades back and then back up is going to gain less than the team that only trades back. And Cleveland in this case went from 1, 4, 33, and 35 to 2, 12, 22, and 33, plus they picked up an additional 2nd next year. The cost to go from 6 to 3 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd. The cost I gave for moving from 4 to 2 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and the first pick of the 3rd this year. If you think the Bills price should've been a 2019 1st and 2nd that would be a premium of 68%, which is astronomically higher than even the Jets gave in their deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

IF one is to believe the supposed Browns insider their decision making is pretty well split between Baker and Rosen.  They could have all 4 graded at a level where they are comfortable taking any of them and are fine assuming the risk of going to the 4th guy.

 

Personally I tend to believe the Giants Darnold interest is smoke.  But I think it's possible we've hammered something out with the Giants and it's contingent upon Darnold, the Giants want to stay top 5 to get Chubb or Barkley, the Browns said "we aren't taking Darnold anyway, give us something and we'll help make this happen".

 

The point I always go back to, if we don't know there's something very possible for one of these QBs, we've wasted A TON of draft prep time.

 

 

Youre kind of blending though, no? If we believe this one that says it’s mayfield or Rosen, and combine it with that one that says it’s allen.... at that point is it hearing what you want and ignoring discrepancies out of two already sketchy sources and just running with it? Truly no offense there- I’ve been guilty of just that before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. 

 

 

I don't see how the Bills go from 12 to 1 without next year's first involved.  

 

I think the more realistic deal is:

 

Bills out:  12 / 22 / 53 / 65 / 2019 1st ( ~3,615 points)

Bills in:  1 (3,000 points)

 

Browns out:  1 / 4 / 35 (5,350 points)

Browns in:  2 / 12 / 22 / 53 / 2019 Bills 1st (5,845 points)

 

Giants out:  2 (2,600 points)

Giants in: 4 / 35 / 65 (2,615 points)

 

Browns crush it in trade value, Bills pay the premium to get 1, Giants break even, but draft the same player and pick up an early 2 and early 3.  Browns get the same guy they are going to take #1 at #2, 12 is in "elite" player territory and 22 is in range where they could easily move up and get 2 elite players outside of the QB, plus load up with 2 1sts next year.

 

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Youre kind of blending though, no? If we believe this one that says it’s mayfield or Rosen, and combine it with that one that says it’s allen.... at that point is it hearing what you want and ignoring discrepancies out of two already sketchy sources and just running with it? Truly no offense there- I’ve been guilty of just that before.

 

If they have good intel the Giants aren't going QB, they know they are getting Rosen or Baker.  If the Giants are sure QBs are going 1-3 and they don't want one, I'd have to believe they'd be more than willing to drop back to 4 getting extra picks.

 

I'm sure I'm blending.  I badly want this to happen.  There's likely too many moving parts for it to really happen and I'm sure I'm seeing things I want.  But I think it sounds as plausible as anything else.  I'm sure these teams have talked over and over again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

They didn't essentially trade down from 4, they traded up from 4 to 2. Of course the team that trades back and then back up is going to gain less than the team that only trades back. And Cleveland in this case went from 1, 4, 33, and 35 to 2, 12, 22, and 33, plus they picked up an additional 2nd next year. The cost to go from 6 to 3 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd. The cost I gave for moving from 4 to 2 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and the first pick of the 3rd this year. If you think the Bills price should've been a 2019 1st and 2nd that would be a premium of 68%, which is astronomically higher than even the Jets gave in their deal.

You have Buffalo moving from 12 to 1 for two 1sts, two 2nds, and a third, but you have Cleveland moving from 4 to 2 for a first and two seconds and a 3rd, and Cleveland's 1st is 8 picks higher and their 2nd is 18 picks higher. And like I said, why would Cleveland do a deal where they essentially break even?

 

You are making Buffalo's move a lot cheaper than Cleveland's. Cleveland should expect that type of trade for the number 4, not for the number 1.

Edited by cle23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TaskerTough said:

I love all "my _____ knows someone at the team" rumors. They are the crown jewel of rumors IMHO. 

 

This one is particularly good because it plays upon two truths: Beane is a wizard and Brandon is a chatty dope. 

 

 

They're my favorite part of draft season.  I'll admit, I bite hard.

1 hour ago, cle23 said:

Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. 

I think it's possible, but you're correct, there needs to be more on the back end in 2019 and 2020.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It makes sense....

 

I’m not saying that he is right or wrong but at least it’s logical. Everyone gets the guy that they want in this case and the Giants and Browns get other assets as well. 

I agree. Somehow I missed this thread, but saw it on Twitter. 

What I didnt understand and maybe someone can clear up is the Browns motivation to do this. 1 goes to 2, and 4 goes to 12.

Taking a hit like that would require some serious compensation- so as much fun as it is to believe and read stuff like this- when I try and picture it in reality I get stuck on that.

Maybe that's the 'other compensation ' but I cant imagine what that would be unless someone gets the Bills 2019 1st or something etc

 

Not to mention, where do the Broncos come into play as the title suggests? Typo?

7 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

I should get credit for this. LOL

 

 

Were you the caller on GR on monday who called and said this?

Edited by gobills1212
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

Not to mention, where do the Broncos come into play as the title suggests? Typo?

 

It was a typo.  Should have been Giants.  Fixed.  Kid now says he might possibly delete the tweet because people are bashing him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

I agree. Somehow I missed this thread, but saw it on Twitter. 

What I didnt understand and maybe someone can clear up is the Browns motivation to do this. 1 goes to 2, and 4 goes to 12.

Taking a hit like that would require some serious compensation- so as much fun as it is to believe and read stuff like this- when I try and picture it in reality I get stuck on that.

Maybe that's the 'other compensation ' but I cant imagine what that would be unless someone gets the Bills 2019 1st or something etc

 

Not to mention, where do the Broncos come into play as the title suggests? Typo?

Were you the caller on GR on monday who called and said this?

I referenced it in another thread but a Bills - Browns trade makes more sense. The Bills give up 12, 22 and 56 (as an example) for pick 4. The Browns turn around and trade 12 and 35 for 6 or 7 (and still get their elite guy). The Browns will start the draft with something like Allen, Barkley, and then have 22, 33, 56, 64. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy?

 

Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds:

Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72

Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21

Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96

 

Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%)

Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%)

 

After the madness:

Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97

Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81

Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87

 

Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday!

You Hokies are wicked smaht

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Browns - Darnold.  They are going to end up doing this if for no other reason than, so if he doesn't work out they can sort of say "out of that grouping, most people had him no.1"  He does seem to be no.1 on many folks lists.  The Browns need some fallback excuse if they choose wrong.  They can't take Allen even if they like him....red flags everywhere.  

 

Giants - Rosen.  They could trade out, as Bills fans continue to hope is the case.  Here is the problem with the "Bills trade up with Giants" scenario.  Lets assume for a moment the Giants really don't want a QB and are considering Chubb, or whoever.  The Bills will be on the phone certainly.  The problem is the Jets.  They will also be on the phone.  The Jets will be taking a QB.  The Giants can move back to 3 if they dont' want a QB, and gain a nice extra set of picks...like the Niners did with the Bears last year.  They still get the Non QB they want.  In this case the Giants get the player they want and extra picks.  The Bills offer to get to 2 in this market, is going to have to be outrageous.  (I'd pay whatever it took if my QB was there but....)  I still think the Giants take a QB and it's a moot point.  If they do stick or only move to 3, it's Chubb..but I am staying with Rosen.

 

The Jets moving to three was a stroke of pre emptive brilliance frankly.  The Bills are effectivly boxed out of the top 3, or at best, the price is going to be astronomical.  

 

One way or another at 2 or 3, the Jets will get Mayfield.

 

Cleveland at 4 will stay put and get a non QB.

 

Broncos at 5 will consider a trade down, but will take the Notre Dame guard they need badly...read my other posts for why.

 

6-7-8 Non QB.

 

9-10-11.  Ripe trade up destinations for whoever wants a piece of Allen.  This is the reality the Bills are facing down.  Trade up for Josh Allen?  Stay for Josh Allen?  Someone else comes up for Allen and the Bills stand still for someone else?

 

worst case.  Bills don't move off 12 and someone (Arizona) comes up for Allen.  Bills don't move off 22 and Mason Rudolph goes to the Chargers.  Saints get wild hair and move ahead of Bills and take Lamar Jackson at 20 or so.  Bills wait to day 2 or 3 for Lauletta, Mike White, etc.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield, in that order (could be talked into flipping first two, doesn't matter) - get one, I don't care how - I approve this batshit plausible rumor

 

Also I love TBD for finding said rumors when I'm unable, love it

Edited by bills522
spelling, added parenthesis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, gobills1212 said:

I agree. Somehow I missed this thread, but saw it on Twitter. 

What I didnt understand and maybe someone can clear up is the Browns motivation to do this. 1 goes to 2, and 4 goes to 12.

Taking a hit like that would require some serious compensation- so as much fun as it is to believe and read stuff like this- when I try and picture it in reality I get stuck on that.

Maybe that's the 'other compensation ' but I cant imagine what that would be unless someone gets the Bills 2019 1st or something etc

 

This is a common sort of flaw in many BS rumors.  One or two teams get what they want which creates a huge gap for another team.  It’d take more than the Bills 2019 1st rounder to make something like this happen.  And when was the last 3 way trade done in the NFL?  Has it ever happened?

 

edit: I found one 3 team NFL trade in 2010 involving only day 3 picks and players.  That’s it.

Edited by BarleyNY
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe this 12 year old really is Dunkirk Dick? Maybe he embellishes his stories a little bit more for the board? Very similar in the way he posts and reacts when called out or questioned. VERY similar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...