Why Picking Josh Allen Would Be Disasterous

[Domdab99]

Riley Macatee at The ringer has written an interesting article pulling various data points together to show that Josh Allen will likely be a bust. Here is the article.

 

Allen is the embodiment of an old-fashioned, “stats are for losers” approach to evaluating prospects. While draftniks like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr. rave about Allen’s prototypical size, arm strength, and raw potential, Allen’s production in college gives no indication that he will be a franchise quarterback in the pros. As far as statistical models go, there isn’t a single one that projects Allen as even a first-round pick, much less the top overall player in the draft. And it’s not just his much-maligned completion percentage—let’s take a look under the hood.

 

One interesting chart he uses:

Comparing 2018 QB Prospects

Player	QBASE DYAR Projection	Rosen-Olbrecht	PFF "NFL Throws"	Bill Connelly Success Rate	IQR	Final-Year QBR	Passing S&P+
Baker Mayfield	1st	3rd	2nd	1st	1st	1st	1st
Sam Darnold	4th	1st	1st	2nd	6th	4th	2nd
Josh Rosen	3rd	2nd	4th	6th	5th	5th	5th
Mason Rudolph	5th	6th	3rd	3rd	2nd	3rd	4th
Lamar Jackson	2nd	5th	6th	5th	4th	2nd	3rd
Luke Falk	6th	7th	N/A	4th	3rd	6th	6th
Josh Allen	7th	4th	5th	7th	7th	7th	7th

 

I really don't want the Bills drafting Josh Allen. He's most likely going to be a huge bust. Let's hope the Browns actually do draft him. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99

[DC Tom]

Could you make your font bigger?  I can barely read this.

[LeGOATski]

Yeah...he's not good.

[BadLandsMeanie]

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

Appears to be rank, not round. Unless they all conveniently have 1 guy per round 

[Mr_Robotulism]

J.P. Losman 2.0

[Domdab99]

17 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

 

read the article

[BadLandsMeanie]

11 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

read the article

I thought you read it. Don't you remember?

[whatdrought]

But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? 

[metzelaars_lives]

J**** C***** enough already.

[LeGOATski]

7 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? 

Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making.

[metzelaars_lives]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making.

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

[Dadonkadonk]

Nobody knows including the GMs, the writer, and the OP.  When the greatest QB of all time goes in the sixth round, Blackledge and Eason go before Marino, Leaf and Mirer one pick after Manning and Bledsoe,  and guys like Romo and Warner go undrafted; it proves that none of these guys know who will succeed in the NFL. 

You can not compare Darnold and Allen without comparing the supporting casts.  

Since 2010 Wyoming has had 10 players drafted none higher than the 4th round.  USC has had 99, 21 of which went in the first round.

Drafting a QB every year is the surest means to finding a franchise guy.  Just keep biting the apple no matter what other needs you have.

Can you win without a Brady? Yes. But you need either a generationally great defense or a superior defense and a very very good QB.

[Mat68]

So if Allen becomes a franchise Qb and Mayfield does not, does analytics in football die?  

[NewEra]

Its not a science.  You can’t look at stats to measure someone’s heart, drive and future surrounding cast

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

For me their are only 3 QB's Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. If we don't get one of those guys I really don't see a potential upgrade at QB in this draft over what we currently have. 

[Domdab99]

Did you guys even read the article? LOL at all of you making statements before doing that. 

 

And to be fair to Allen, while the advanced stats don’t look great, no one can say for sure whether he’ll pan out or be a bust. Stats may not be for losers, but no one would argue that numbers alone make an NFL quarterback. If Allen can piece together his immense talent, he could be the next Brett Favre. If not, he’ll be the next Jake Locker. But in order to draft him no. 1 overall, the Browns would have to ignore every statistical analysis imaginable. As far as analytics go, it’d be the end of the Process in Cleveland.

 

Yes, we all know it's a crap shoot and no one knows for sure. Duh. But all these studies are trying to do one thing: make a coin flip into something less than a coin flip...giving those who do study maybe a 60-40 chance or even better of making the right decision. And guess what? That's the !@#$ing point. 

 

But all we get here is all of the above posts calling me out if Allen is actually good, or saying "nobody knows."
 

And if the Bills actually do pick Allen, I'm going to cheer for him and hope he's Brett Favre and not Jake Locker. 

 

But I'm not going to bet on it. 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99

[LeGOATski]

42 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

This isn't tiring at all. 

 

I get it, though. Life is hard.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

J**** C***** enough already.

 

With what?

 

2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

 

You need to probably wait at least a year and a half until Allen even sees meaningful regular season action, maybe longer.

 

Don't waste your energy on being so frustrated so early... you have a loooooong time to deal with passing talk about how bad he's likely going to be as a pro until you have any regular season NFL play to use to debunk that belief.

[CEN-CAL17]

I hope this kid turns out to be amazing. Just to prove to everyone they have no clue what they are talking about. 

 

I think he has potential to do so and I’m rooting for him.

[Fadingpain]

The article discusses the QBASE model put together by Football Outsiders each year.

 

It uses stats in college to project a QB's success in the NFL.  They have run the model back to 1996, which would include both years Tom Brady started at Michigan.

 

Of note: he was not in the their Top 10 best scores, which suggests their "scientific model" is not exactly scientific.

 

It's also funny to see the Top 10 all time scores include Byron Leftwich, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb.  It does also include, however, the likes of Rodgers, Big Ben, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Marcus Mariota. 

 

Don't get me wrong: I think Allen will be horrible and don't want the Bills to draft him, but the analytics people like to think they are engaging in science but they are not.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Fadingpain

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

Its not a science.  You can’t look at stats to measure someone’s heart, drive and future surrounding cast

 

The writer did an ok compiling opinions and benchmarking scores in various systems... but didn’t show a particularly great grasp of any of it himself.

 

the low scores are a red flag no doubt.

 

But if you can identify an issue or two and address it (say poor coaching missed a minor tweak that would considerably change his accuracy, or 1-2 specific throws that they leaned on were among his worst) that can go a long way in throwing the number out.

 

Next up is that analytics or cutting edge data doesn’t have to be JUST on field stats. Cleveland could have their own data set that includes anything from physical attributes (hand size, height) to measurables in drills (velocity, various measures of touch on his throws) to GPA and include some of those advanced stats still. 

 

Last - that he scores low could be a huge issue with him....  or the tests. Based on the somewhat limited scope and sample size and ever changing nature of the game... these may have some biases built in. Creating something that explains the past few classes pretty well may build in a measure that accounts for a coincidence. It would look better on paper but maybe not be the best future prediction. 

 

Long story short: a handful of stats guys came up with and he scored low along with some busts gives a Little worry to me as a fan... but if any of these were fool proof you could also simply fire the scouting department. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by NoSaint

[elltrain22]

Stats in Allen's case are a misnomer for a variety of reasons. 

• He  played in a pro-style offense. They never, ever throw quick screens or hardly ever threw the ball to the RB. They usually tried chunk plays of 8-20 yards b/c thats the talent (lack there of ) they had.  That being said, if he played in an Oklahoma or any Big 12 offense, that throws alot of easy targets, his completion percentage would be above 60, and we'd never be having this discussion  of  inaccuracy.
• He's young and developing. Meaning he's no where near a finished product, and with his talent and work ethic, he could be really, really good
• He is very athletic, and can be a real good red zone threat with his feet
• His character, durability, and many other intangibles make him  very appealing

Add this all up, he's a real intriguing prospect. I'd rather have Mayfield or Rosen, but I'd be very happy with Allen. 

[MarlinTheMagician]

Yeah, he is terrible.  With his spider chart he couldn't possibly play in the NFL.  Please be there at 12!  Keep talking him down, pray the national media jumps on that bandwagon.

[Royale with Cheese]

I don't like Allen and don't think he will be good.  If we draft him, I will feel like I got gut punched......but I'll eventually learn to like the pick.   It'll just take time but it'll come around.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I don't like Allen and don't think he will be good.  If we draft him, I will feel like I got gut punched......but I'll eventually learn to like the pick.   It'll just take time but it'll come around.

That’s where I am.  I want him the least of the big 4, but I’d rather have him than Lamar.  If we take him, I’ll feel sick for a bit, then I’ll become the biggest Josh Allen fan.  

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s where I am.  I want him the least of the big 4, but I’d rather have him than Lamar.  If we take him, I’ll feel sick for a bit, then I’ll become the biggest Josh Allen fan.  

 

That was my feeling when we drafted Manuel....I was "ugghhhh".  But then I warmed up to him because of my bias being a Bills fan.

 

[Blokestradamus]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

That was my feeling when we drafted Manuel....I was "ugghhhh".  But then I warmed up to him because of my bias being a Bills fan.

 

I'm quite the opposite. If I dislike them as a prospect and they end up on my team, they have to work harder to win me over.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Blokestradamus said:

 

I'm quite the opposite. If I dislike them as a prospect and they end up on my team, they have to work harder to win me over.

 

 

So it's hard to win Blokes heart over.....Blokes is the George Clooney of TBD.

[BillsMafioso]

Lol this guy Domdab (the OP) is such a hater ??. Also has the worst posts every time 

Edited April 13, 2018 by BillsMafioso

[Blokestradamus]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So it's hard to win Blokes heart over.....Blokes is the George Clooney of TBD.

 

Just with less money and more acting prowess.

[Just Joshin']

10 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

For me their are only 3 QB's Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. If we don't get one of those guys I really don't see a potential upgrade at QB in this draft over what we currently have. 

This is where I am at:

 

Make a move for Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen and give up the picks required.

 

If you miss there and Allen there at 12, I am more willing to take a risk since you have retained all the other draft picks.  Do not move up for Allen but hope between Allen/McCarron that one of the two hits.  It is a Lottery play but you are doubling down.

 

If Allen is gone at 12, you hope Rudolph/Jackson are available.  Again, playing the lottery and hoping you hit.

 

QB can not be ignored nor can you move up at any cost to get a lower ranked player.  Need to balance the risk/reward.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

Just with less money and more acting prowess.

 

I do like George Clooney but he plays George Clooney in every movie.  

[YoloinOhio]

3 hours ago, elltrain22 said:

Stats in Allen's case are a misnomer for a variety of reasons. 

• He  played in a pro-style offense. They never, ever throw quick screens or hardly ever threw the ball to the RB. They usually tried chunk plays of 8-20 yards b/c thats the talent (lack there of ) they had.  That being said, if he played in an Oklahoma or any Big 12 offense, that throws alot of easy targets, his completion percentage would be above 60, and we'd never be having this discussion  of  inaccuracy.
• He's young and developing. Meaning he's no where near a finished product, and with his talent and work ethic, he could be really, really good
• He is very athletic, and can be a real good red zone threat with his feet
• His character, durability, and many other intangibles make him  very appealing

Add this all up, he's a real intriguing prospect. I'd rather have Mayfield or Rosen, but I'd be very happy with Allen. 

He’s definitely intriguing. My reasons for wanting to go a different direction is I don’t think this is a good situation for him to develop. From unproven offensive and qB coaching to current lack of weapons and unproven OL.  And he’s the one who needs the most development imo and is given excuses based on the team around him. That said, like i indicated when Watson’s accuracy was under heavy scrutiny this time last year, i think Allen does have the ability for pinpoint precision ball placement. It is the consistency of that placement that is in question.

 

Also, I don’t doubt the Bills love him. He’s a high character, hard working, intelligent, physical freak. I do think they are self -aware of the situation the kid will be walking into. He won’t even have a starting QB to learn behind. The best place for him is somewhere like NYG, LAC, Steelers, Pats. 

 

The Bills know they need a guy who is going to be ok dropped into a starting role. And i think they wanted that, too, the way they traded their starting QB and slow played the FA QBs almost like it didn’t matter. They need to define who that QB is who can step right in if he earns the job. I would guess that’s Rosen or Mayfield. But we will see. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s definitely intriguing. My reasons for wanting to go a different direction is I don’t think this is a good situation for him to develop. From unproven offensive and qB coaching to current lack of weapons and unproven OL.  And he’s the one who needs the most development imo and is given excuses based on the team around him. That said, like i indicated when Watson’s accuracy was under heavy scrutiny this time last year, i think Allen does have the ability for pinpoint precision ball placement. It is the consistency of that placement that is in question.

 

Also, I don’t doubt the Bills love him. He’s a high character, hard working, intelligent, physical freak. I do think they are self -aware of the situation the kid will be walking into. He won’t even have a starting QB to learn behind. The best place for him is somewhere like NYG, LAC, Steelers, Pats. 

 

The Bills know they need a guy who is going to be ok dropped into a starting role. And i think they wanted that, too, the way they traded their starting QB and slow played the FA QBs almost like it didn’t matter. They need to define who that QB is who can step right in if he earns the job. I would guess that’s Rosen or Mayfield. But we will see. 

 

If we go Allen....better hope McCarron is at least decent/adequate for one, maybe two years.

[Domdab99]

21 minutes ago, Derby Dan said:

crazy post.  Josh Allen has been number one on their board for awhile.  Has the arm strength to play in the wind at the Ralph (I don't like new era) until the downtown stadium is built.  Has the athletic ability and mobility to make plays.  Rosen is a china doll, Mayfield too short and has horrible foot work, and darnold will be gone.  Please don't say Jackson, we just traded his twin to the browns.  The only other qb they may go after is rudolph

 

Well I hope you're dead wrong on...everything.

[Just Joshin']

29 minutes ago, Derby Dan said:

crazy post.  Josh Allen has been number one on their board for awhile.  Has the arm strength to play in the wind at the Ralph (I don't like new era) until the downtown stadium is built.  Has the athletic ability and mobility to make plays.  Rosen is a china doll, Mayfield too short and has horrible foot work, and darnold will be gone.  Please don't say Jackson, we just traded his twin to the browns.  The only other qb they may go after is rudolph

How can one post be wrong on so many levels?

[ToGoGo]

Hopefully he will be the prospect that makes people knock advanced analytics down a peg. In sports, analytics should be supplementary, not the primary method of analysis. 

7 minutes ago, Dalton said:

How can one post be wrong on so many levels?

 

What was one thing he said that was wrong?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Riley Macatee at The ringer has written an interesting article pulling various data points together to show that Josh Allen will likely be a bust. Here is the article.

 

Allen is the embodiment of an old-fashioned, “stats are for losers” approach to evaluating prospects. While draftniks like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr. rave about Allen’s prototypical size, arm strength, and raw potential, Allen’s production in college gives no indication that he will be a franchise quarterback in the pros. As far as statistical models go, there isn’t a single one that projects Allen as even a first-round pick, much less the top overall player in the draft. And it’s not just his much-maligned completion percentage—let’s take a look under the hood.

 

One interesting chart he uses:

Comparing 2018 QB Prospects

Player	QBASE DYAR Projection	Rosen-Olbrecht	PFF "NFL Throws"	Bill Connelly Success Rate	IQR	Final-Year QBR	Passing S&P+
Baker Mayfield	1st	3rd	2nd	1st	1st	1st	1st
Sam Darnold	4th	1st	1st	2nd	6th	4th	2nd
Josh Rosen	3rd	2nd	4th	6th	5th	5th	5th
Mason Rudolph	5th	6th	3rd	3rd	2nd	3rd	4th
Lamar Jackson	2nd	5th	6th	5th	4th	2nd	3rd
Luke Falk	6th	7th	N/A	4th	3rd	6th	6th
Josh Allen	7th	4th	5th	7th	7th	7th	7th

 

I really don't want the Bills drafting Josh Allen. He's most likely going to be a huge bust. Let's hope the Browns actually do draft him. 

 

Well, sheesh, after reading all those different QB comparisons I sure know which one we should draft - sort of epitomizes the saying "opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one"

 

Other things being equal, the problem actual scouts and GMs have with the above is the saying "you can't coach size".  I think it's probably true if Mayfield were 4" taller he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

IMHO, Allen would be a perfect pick for someone like the Giants, were they to wish to draft a QB - they can let him sit and learn behind Manning, they're in no rush.  Or Denver for that matter with Keenum on board, or the Cards with Bradford IF he is healthy.  Whether that's consistent with a use of a top-1st round pick or not, I need to leave to the draft pundits.

 

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

58 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s definitely intriguing. My reasons for wanting to go a different direction is I don’t think this is a good situation for him to develop. From unproven offensive and qB coaching to current lack of weapons and unproven OL.  And he’s the one who needs the most development imo and is given excuses based on the team around him. That said, like i indicated when Watson’s accuracy was under heavy scrutiny this time last year, i think Allen does have the ability for pinpoint precision ball placement. It is the consistency of that placement that is in question.

 

Also, I don’t doubt the Bills love him. He’s a high character, hard working, intelligent, physical freak. I do think they are self -aware of the situation the kid will be walking into. He won’t even have a starting QB to learn behind. The best place for him is somewhere like NYG, LAC, Steelers, Pats. 

 

The Bills know they need a guy who is going to be ok dropped into a starting role. And i think they wanted that, too, the way they traded their starting QB and slow played the FA QBs almost like it didn’t matter. They need to define who that QB is who can step right in if he earns the job. I would guess that’s Rosen or Mayfield. But we will see. 

 

Reminds me of the Rams and Goff.

Had f*ckall there at first.

Went out and got him weapons for year two.

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, sheesh, after reading all those different QB comparisons I sure know which one we should draft - sort of epitomizes the saying "opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one"

 

Other things being equal, the problem actual scouts and GMs have with the above is the saying "you can't coach size".  I think it's probably true if Mayfield were 4" taller he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

IMHO, Allen would be a perfect pick for someone like the Giants, were they to wish to draft a QB - they can let him sit and learn behind Manning, they're in no rush.  Or Denver for that matter with Keenum on board, or the Cards with Bradford IF he is healthy.  Whether that's consistent with a use of a top-1st round pick or not, I need to leave to the draft pundits.

 

 

 

 

Maybe they can just have Mayfield play in high heels.

I'm sure there are a few pairs left lying around that Rex forgot in storage when he was shoved out the door.