Jump to content

Sal C: "Despite Roster Holes, Bills still need to be aggressive for QB"


Logic

Recommended Posts

I read (and agree with) this article, and thought I'd share.

http://www.wgr550.com/articles/opinion/capaccio-despite-roster-holes-bills-still-need-be-aggressive-qb

 

CAPACCIO: Despite roster holes, Bills still need to be aggressive for QB

The team won't be in this position again with draft capital

WGR_TalentImage_SalCapaccio_775x425.png?
SAL CAPACCIO
APRIL 10, 2018 - 10:58 PM

 

First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles.

The Bills came into this off-season with several holes to fill.  They still have plenty of them, both short-term and long-term.

Yet no matter who’s retired or left, nor how many positions seem to have a need either at the starting spot or depth behind him; no matter the age or contractual situation of anyone, if their plan was to draft their franchise quarterback of the future later this month - and I believe it has been since last year’s draft - general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott shouldn’t waiver for one second and should stick with that plan....

-- click the link for more -- 

 

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree. Once we get a franchise QB every draft will get easier. When you don't have a QB then you always have to consider taking a QB rather than taking BPA. And a franchise QB will stablize the coaching staff and front office giving them more time to build their team. Once you have a QB you can just take BPA each year in the draft.

 

If we didn't need a QB we would be getting some serious talent with all the picks we have. but because we really need one, we might be giving up a lot to get one. sooner the better though

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

9 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Get your quarterback

Protect your quarterback

Get to the quarterback

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we can only pick 2 out of the 3. Get our quarterback and protect our quarterback. If this is the year of the quarterback, we need to do everything possible to help him succeed. Fixing defensive holes are secondary. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

The Bills will likely never have so much draft capital again. If they don't use it this year (which certainly seems to have been the plan all along), when will they get a QB (next year is supposed to be a bad year for QB's)? While waiting on a QB, your draft pieces (the decent ones) will hit free agency and need to be replaced again. QB stands above all as the most important piece on a FB team, and the Bills have waited since Kelly for a franchise guy.

Also, you can pick up decent Lineman and Linebackers in the mid-rounds of the draft, so you can still address needs (there are also some free agents still out there-- they already signed Wood's replacement).

Edited by par73
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the bills and everyone that knows about the NFL know the bills need a QB, and by their actions have been aggressive obtaining capital for such a move. But, I don’t see any of the teams in 1,2,4, or 5 trading back. They’re to scared to fall out of the top 10, !@#$. 

 

 

Edited by Captain Murica
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s now a matter of - Will there be a team in the top 5 who’s willing to trade?

 

If Allen goes first, when else will the Giants be able to get a Darnold without selling the farm. We already know Jets are going QB at 3. 

 

Are we giving up all our picks for our 4th choice? Would Cleveland or Denver even be willing to trade?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely stick to the plan and move up for a QB, absolutely no doubt about that.

 

That being said, especially now that Ritchie’s gone, I would look hard at dumping Castillo and throwing big $ at an OL coach who can make the most out of scrubs.

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

 

How do you trade a low 1st from this year for a high 1st next year?

 

You'd have to target a team that you are sure will be picking high next year, and then get them to somehow decide to part with a pick they know has a good chance at being high for a late 1st this year. I don't see that happening. Why would a bad/rebuilding team do that? 

 

I dont know that you will get any team to give you a 1st next year for one of our mid round 2nd's this year either. How often does that actually happen?

 

But if someone did offer us a 1st next year for one of our mid 2nds this year (we pick 53 & 56) id definitely do it. 

 

 

Also, Next year's draft looks pretty weak at QB (you are the 1st I've heard call it strong). 

The top QB prospect next year (as of now) is Drew Lock. He considered entering the draft this year but the NFL draft counsel did not give him a 1st or 2nd round grade and recommended he go back to school. 

This year looks like the strongest QB draft class in many years. It has 4 of the top 6 highest graded QBs in the last 3 years, and the highest graded QB prospect since Andrew Luck. They are predicting as many as 6 first round QBs, which would tie the historic 1983 draft class (where we got Jim Kelly). This is the year to take a shot on a top QB IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

this is very compelling, you make your point well here, but there seems to be a significantly greater chance in this draft of having 2 or more very good qb's, unlike the last draft we picked a qb first round, when there were zero good ones (due respect to geno and ej's mothers) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

Nobody knows what you’re saying here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

 

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

 

 

I'm with Jay, this is really unclear.

 

But all the people saying you can't do many things, you can't build a whole team ... that is utter nonsense. Of course you can. But it takes time, probably three or four years. So you adjust your expectations and you make your first priority the one thing that is both absolutely crucial to team success and only available occasionally and somewhat unpredictably. Which of course is getting a franchise QB. Anytime you have a chance you do it. Even if you have to sacrifice other things. 

 

Then after you have your guy, you develop him, maybe from the bench. And you build your team, making protecting him an early  priority. And before you know it,  2- 4 years down the road, you've got the best chance possible of having a team that will compete for the Super Bowl.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

How do you trade a low 1st from this year for a high 1st next year?

 

You'd have to target a team that you are sure will be picking high next year, and then get them to somehow decide to part with a pick they know has a good chance at being high for a late 1st this year. I don't see that happening. Why would a bad/rebuilding team do that? 

 

I dont know that you will get any team to give you a 1st next year for one of our mid round 2nd's this year either. How often does that actually happen?

 

But if someone did offer us a 1st next year for one of our mid 2nds this year (we pick 53 & 56) id definitely do it. 

 

 

Also, Next year's draft looks pretty weak at QB (you are the 1st I've heard call it strong). 

The top QB prospect next year (as of now) is Drew Lock. He considered entering the draft this year but the NFL draft counsel did not give him a 1st or 2nd round grade and recommended he go back to school. 

This year looks like the strongest QB draft class in many years. It has 4 of the top 6 highest graded QBs in the last 3 years, and the highest graded QB prospect since Andrew Luck. They are predicting as many as 6 first round QBs, which would tie the historic 1983 draft class (where we got Jim Kelly). This is the year to take a shot on a top QB IMO. 

 

Yeah, it's usually the other way around.  A team will give up a first for the following year with position unknown for the opportunity to get a low 1st or even high 2nd to get a player they want in the current draft.  Perhaps Maryland-bills-fan has a different interpretation of high and low picks?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

 

If anyone had actually said that because we picked a QB at #1 or #2 it guaranteed success, you'd really have a point. 

 

But what people say - absolutely correctly - is that picking a QB at #1 or #2 is the best place to get a franchise QB. Not the perfect place. Just the best place. That that's the way to maximize your chances. 

 

Sure, there are other ways to get a QB. None of those other ways have percentages of success anywhere near picking an early guy.

 

And by the way, it's easy to make things look terrible if you only look at the bad QBs. If you'd also included the Andrew Lucks, the Carson Wentzes, the Philip Riverses, the Eli Mannings, the Matt Ryans, the Marcus Mariotas, the Carson Palmers, the Goffs and Jameises and Newtons, then all of a sudden it doesn't look anywhere near as bad.

 

Edited by Thurman#1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Set the target and go get the fans of Buffalo a real franchise worthy QB one they have not had since Jim Kelly. Fans have waited long enough, go get us Darnold,Rosen or Mayfield and worry about everything else later. Do this and this staff will be loved like no other staff since Marv and Bill gave us the glory years.

 

Build around a really talented QB first. Even if he sits year one it will have the fans very excited for 2019 the year Buffalo gets back in the SB playoff race talk. Time to start a new glory years era let's go Buffalo. Get er done, start the real rebuild with a QB worthy of that SB run in a few years in this QB driven league.

.

Edited by xRUSHx
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

You’re wrong about next years qbs. They’re garbage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the draft to get a QB. Trade up if possible and sit that QB for the 1st season at least. Plenty of cap space in 2019 to help rebuild the OL.

 

Plan B draft Lamar , Rudolph or trade for Foles later in season . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Free Agency is going to look very different next year.   Get your QB this year.  Do anything and everything to get your QB in this draft.   

Edited by DFT
  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then. 

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765375-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-potential-2019-nfl-draft-qb-class

 

"This cycle is a weak one for QBs after the bounty in 2018, but Patterson is a potential difference maker if available."

 

https://247sports.com/Article/2019-NFL-Draft-A-way-too-early-big-board-for-2019-prospects-114189631

 

"2018 NFL Draft: Will Questionable 2019 Quarterback Class Cause Panic?"

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2018/03/23/2018-nfl-draft-will-questionable-2019-quarterback-class-cause-panic/

 

 

 

Wishing it was a good QB year next year doesn't make it so. That's not the way it looks so far, and that's surprising because nearly every year is reported as being a good crop until the year comes and they start making mistakes in game play. But this year 2019 is reported as weak, maybe in comparison to the strong crop this year.

 

These are the first three reports off google, but it wasn't difficult to find a bunch even though a huge majority of the coverage is of course about the 2018 draft.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765375-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-potential-2019-nfl-draft-qb-class

 

This cycle is a weak one for QBs after the bounty in 2018, but Patterson is a potential difference maker if available.

 

https://247sports.com/Article/2019-NFL-Draft-A-way-too-early-big-board-for-2019-prospects-114189631

 

"2018 NFL Draft: Will Questionable 2019 Quarterback Class Cause Panic?"

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2018/03/23/2018-nfl-draft-will-questionable-2019-quarterback-class-cause-panic/

 

 

 

Wishing it was a good QB year next year doesn't make it so. That's not the way it looks so far, and that's surprising because nearly every year is reported as being a good crop until the year comes and they start making mistakes in game play. But this year 2019 is reported as weak, maybe in comparison to the strong crop this year.

 

These are the first three reports off google, but it wasn't difficult to find a bunch even though a huge majority of the coverage is of course about the 2018 draft.

 

 

 

 

Yes,  what I've seen agrees with that. I don't follow the college game that closely, so I don't have any sleepers myself.   I wonder a little, if this years hype is a little bit of a new cottage industry for sports reporters and maybe there isn't as much quality there as is being said. Is there a top 2 or 3 or 6?  ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/11/best-quarterback-nfl-draft-darnold-rosen-allen-mayfield-themmqb-newsletter      ) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

 

Now list all the QBs who were selected past the first round who busted from that same time frame, I'll wait.

 

You know who were 1st round picks, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Steve Young(supplemental draft), Otto Graham, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Troy Aikman. Those represent 16 Super Bowl wins and 3 NFL Championships. If you throw in guys like Joe Namath, Phil Simms, Joe Flacco, Jim Plunkett, Len Dawson, Doug Williams, Bob Griese and Jim McMahon, thats 26 Super Bowl wins. Half. If you add Rodgers in there because he was a 1st rounder, thats 27. The other 25 have come from non-high first rounders. 9 of those wins are Brady/Montana. The 1st round QBs represent the most multiple SB winners. Elway, Bradshaw, Manning, Aikman, Manning, Roethlisberger, Griese and Plunkett have all won multiple times. Only Brady, Montana, Staubach and Starr have won multiples. Also, the 1st round Qbs have more Super Bowl MVPs than the non 1st rounders. And again, the majority of the non SB MVPs come from Brady/Montana. 

 

To me, it looks like picking a QB who wins multiple SBs is much more likely to happen picking one in the top of the 1st round. Picking HoF QBs? That looks like that can happen in any round. And yea you could pick a QB past the 1st round that wins a SB.

 

Can a 1st round QB bust? Sure can but you know what? So can a players selected at 12, 22 and 53. I'm sure you don't have to look at past Bills drafts to know that.

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes,  what I've seen agrees with that. I don't follow the college game that closely, so I don't have any sleepers myself.   I wonder a little, if this years hype is a little bit of a new cottage industry for sports reporters and maybe there isn't as much quality there as is being said. Is there a top 2 or 3 or 6?  ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/11/best-quarterback-nfl-draft-darnold-rosen-allen-mayfield-themmqb-newsletter      ) 

 

 

There is absolutely no reason to think so.

 

Generally the cycle goes like this ... every year before the draft next year's QBs are better than this year's because this year's have been looked over with a fine-toothed comb for flaws and next year's haven't. The next year the same guys who looked so great next year have now had their final year and been gone over relentlessly. The crop that looked so good last year now doesn't look as good as next year's group.

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

So when a group goes through the pre-draft process and still looks like a good group - as this year's does - it means something. Equally, when a group that hasn't yet been scrutinized within an inch of their life looks bad, as next year's appears to, again, it probably means something.

 

You're showing signs of a mental habit that will lead you the wrong way, every time. It's called confirmation bias. You suddenly notice that data that supports your opinion all looks brilliant and convincing and data that casts suspicion on your way of thought looks questionable. Go long enough this way, and you begin to ignore the stuff you don't like and believe without reservation the stuff that backs you up. It' a very human flaw in our thinking and something we all have to fight. When you say you wonder if this is a new cottage industry, the thing that disagrees with you this year, you're showing confirmation bias. All of us need to stay as neutral as possible if we want to get closer to truth.

 

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There is absolutely no reason to think so.

 

Generally the cycle goes like this ... every year before the draft next year's QBs are better than this year's because this year's have been looked over with a fine-toothed comb for flaws and next year's haven't. The next year the same guys who looked so great next year have now had their final year and been gone over relentlessly. The crop that looked so good last year now doesn't look as good as next year's group.

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

So when a group goes through the pre-draft process and still looks like a good group - as this year's does - it means something. Equally, when a group that hasn't yet been scrutinized within an inch of their life looks bad, as next year's appears to, again, it probably means something.

 

You're showing signs of a mental habit that will lead you the wrong way, every time. It's called confirmation bias. You suddenly notice that data that supports your opinion all looks brilliant and convincing and data that casts suspicion on your way of thought looks questionable. Go long enough this way, and you begin to ignore the stuff you don't like and believe without reservation the stuff that backs you up. It' a very human flaw in our thinking and something we all have to fight. When you say you wonder if this is a new cottage industry, the thing that disagrees with you this year, you're showing confirmation bias. All of us need to stay as neutral as possible if we want to get closer to truth.

Thanks Dad.                     : )

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks Dad.                     : )

 

 

No prob, son.  Heh heh.

 

In any case, QBs aside, I'd love to see them start trading back and getting higher and better picks in the next year's draft. I'd love to see them start a regular treadmill that way. It's smart strategy, and if they do have any picks left after the likely tradeup (which they should absolutely do even if it costs them a ton, if they think they can get a guy who will be a franchise QB) I'd love to see them start to move that way.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

Remind me how you trade a low 1st this year for a high next year? What happens if that team is suddenly .500 or a wildcard? 

 

You go go get your qb when you can. The only way you don’t trade up this year is if you don’t like the prospects available 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Remind me how you trade a low 1st this year for a high next year? What happens if that team is suddenly .500 or a wildcard? 

 

You go go get your qb when you can. The only way you don’t trade up this year is if you don’t like the prospects available 

Then you didn't gain that much.

 

What you can do is "invest" one of our second round picks to get an extra 1st round pick for next year and have the ammo to move up for a QB next year.

Example:  (for no good reason) use Arizona who picks at #15 this year.  Let's work out what happens if they improve by 5 spots or regress by 5 spots next year.

 

We trade our 2018 #53, worth 340 points for their 2019 pick at either #10 or #20.

 

<<they fall to #20>>>>>   #20 is worth 850 points,  we gain 510 points.  We either use the #20, or gain the equivalent of an extra 7th pick in the second round compared to our original #53.  (that means, we we could trade these points for picks we wind up with the #53 AND the #39 picks)

 

<they rise to #10>>>>>   #10 is worth 1300 points,  we gain 960 points.  We either use the #10 or gain the equivalent of the 17th pick in the first round compared to our original #53.     ( (that means, we we could trade these points for picks we wind up with the #53 AND the #17 picks)

 

In either case, we have some ammo to use if we want to move up, or we gain the equivalent of another higher pick in the 2019 draft. It is a way to invest our extra draft picks from this year in a QB for next year. (or the year after)

 

 

That is the sort of stuff the Bellicheck does every year and uses it to add an extra player or two every year.   They are always a top pick to get into the SuperBowl, so don't discount how this helps them.

 

 

 

 

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Get your quarterback

Protect your quarterback

Get to the quarterback

 

In that order.

Spending all the draft capital on OLine and passing on a QB is the equivalent of spending all your money building a moat, 10' brick wall and a 15' chain link and barbed wire fence, then installing a top of the line security system around a single wide beat up 1970's trailer with a leaky roof and no heat.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

In that order.

Spending all the draft capital on OLine and passing on a QB is the equivalent of spending all your money building a moat, 10' brick wall and a 15' chain link and barbed wire fence, then installing a top of the line security system around a single wide beat up 1970's trailer with a leaky roof and no heat.

.....and spending everything on the QB and nothing on the o-line is like staking a goat out overnight next to the thicket where the hungry tiger lives.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

Look at all the other players that busted being taken that high. ill bet the list of non qbs that busted in the top 15 since 2000 is bigger than that list . Its easier to get any position in football other than a QB. The higher a QB is taken the higher percentage of him being good is

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Rico said:

Definitely stick to the plan and move up for a QB, absolutely no doubt about that.

 

That being said, especially now that Ritchie’s gone, I would look hard at dumping Castillo and throwing big $ at an OL coach who can make the most out of scrubs.

An original idea! Unusual on here and I like it.

 

Get the QB!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

.....and spending everything on the QB and nothing on the o-line is like staking a goat out overnight next to the thicket where the hungry tiger lives.

 

 

That's wild overstatement. 

 

Yes, they need to build up the o-line. But nobody is going to be left dead here.

 

But yeah, we should do our best to protect McCarron as much as we reasonably can after we make that trade up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...