[Vague Title]You don't know squat

[oldmanfan]

You as in the collective you.  Including me and everyone here.  This entire past day has been filled with posts claiming absolute knowledge over what they could have done, should have done and will do.

 

And none of us know squat.  Because we do not know what value the Bills have on the QBs in this draft.  And none of us have anywhere near the access to the data the Bills have on these guys.  Few of us have watched them live, we don't have the volumes of tape they have, we have not had access to their coaches, other players to see about them.  We haven't stood at a white board or in a film room and quizzed them about reads, progressions, etc.  None of us have any of that kind of data.

 

Know what else?  We don't have phone lines connected to every other team's front office.  So we have no idea what offers are flying around.  For all we know there's a deal right now with the Giants or Browns.  Or not.  Or with someone else.  Yet people here insist we cannot move up now and that we lost any chance at a QB.  Which is simply wrong.  Because we don't know.

 

i love the Tom Clancy books.  One of Jack Ryan's favorite phrases is : don't know means don't know.  We don't know. Beane does know.  He knows he has to decide if any of the four is a guy he has to have, or if he's OK with any of the top 6 guys.  He knows or will know if the draft capital he has acquired will allow him to get a guy he wants or if he has to sweeten the deal.  He knows if there's a MLB or DT that at 12 could solidify his D for years.  He knows because it's his job to know.

 

Does that mean a guaranteed certainty in his decision?  Of course not.  But he's in a helluva lot better position than we are to make the call.  When we woke up this morning everyone thought Beane was smart for getting a bunch of picks for this draft, for getting some decent FAs, clearing cap, etc.  And 24 hours later he's a bum because he didn't make a trade that might only get him the third QB in his board.

 

He knows.  We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

[terrytate]

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

[sherpa]

He also knows what the Colts wanted for their #3 pick, and decided it wasn't worth the cost, unless someone thinks the Colts didn't leverage us against the Jets.

 

[Commish]

2 minutes ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

 We also entered the draft in the "unfortunate'' and unexpected position of having made the play-offs, hence pick #22 - only so much you can do with the cards you're dealt and the math invovled. That said, I think a move up is still a possibility.

[terrytate]

Just now, Roch-A-Bill said:

 We also entered the draft in the "unfortunate'' and unexpected position of having made the play-offs, hence pick #22 - only so much you can do with the cards you're dealt and the math invovled. That said, I think a move up is still a possibility.

 

RIght.  And i don't want that post to come off as me bashing Beane.  We got dealt with some cards, made a great move to improve our cards, and stils  could not seal the deal.  I  think moving up to 4 is possible, but of the teams who are also in position to move to 4 we rank 3rd in terms of attractiveness.  We would have to leapfrog to 6.  If we got to 6 we have a chance.  

[Fetou]

I'm generally inclined to agree. With a few exceptions:

 

1) I know Brian Orakpo is better than Aaron Maybin. I've always known, since I was born

2) I know Donte Whitner isn't worth the 8th pick overall

3) I know fan picks as a rule have been better than the player we've ended up with in 1st round for the last ~15 years.

 

Hopefully we now have a FO who has the ability to compete with drunk Bills fans.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Fetou

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

This is the type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  Excuse me, but exactly ewho the hell do you think you are?  Sorry to be so bluntly, but do you honestly believe that your mentality has anything to do with the success or failure of an NFL team?

 

you claim my take is solace in willful ignorance?  Yours is misplaced arrogance and self-aggrandizement.

34 minutes ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

In a calmer mode, you have no idea if they failed because the draft has not happened yet.  You do not know.  Don't know means don't know

[terrytate]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

This is the type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  Excuse me, but exactly ewho the hell do you think you are?  Sorry to be so bluntly, but do you honestly believe that your mentality has anything to do with the success or failure of an NFL team?

 

you claim my take is solace in willful ignorance?  Yours is misplaced arrogance and self-aggrandizement.

arrogance is earned, ignorance is not. 

 

I do believe fan mentality plays a role in this.  Look at what the browns did this year .  They had a parade for a 0-16 team that mocked them and what  they have become and that is a national embarrassment.  Do you believe that has played a role in them being by far and away the most aggressive team this offseason?  Maybe , maybe not but it didn't hurt.   I took out some frustration on your post and i apologize for it.  I just don't see how anyone can look at that jets move and feel any amount of optimism. 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, terrytate said:

arrogance is earned, ignorance is not. 

 

I do believe fan mentality plays a role in this.  Look at what the browns did this year .  They had a parade for a 0-16 team that mocked them and what  they have become and that is a national embarrassment.  Do you believe that has played a role in them being by far and away the most aggressive team this offseason?  Maybe , maybe not but it didn't hurt.   I took out some frustration on your post and i apologize for it.  I just don't see how anyone can look at that jets move and feel any amount of optimism. 

 

I don't believe their parade had a thing to do with their approach.  For the past couple years they have been compiling picks and this year Dorsey was brought in to use them.

 

I don't feel optimism or pessimism because We. Do. Not. Know.  Let's see how the draft plays out.  How they play in camp.  I have no doubt they are drafting a QB; it's just which one and where in the draft.

 

I would remind you around this time last year it was doom and gloom.  And they made the playoffs.  Don't know means don't know

5 minutes ago, terrytate said:

arrogance is earned, ignorance is not. 

 

I do believe fan mentality plays a role in this.  Look at what the browns did this year .  They had a parade for a 0-16 team that mocked them and what  they have become and that is a national embarrassment.  Do you believe that has played a role in them being by far and away the most aggressive team this offseason?  Maybe , maybe not but it didn't hurt.   I took out some frustration on your post and i apologize for it.  I just don't see how anyone can look at that jets move and feel any amount of optimism. 

 

And I too apologize for being too harsh

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, terrytate said:

arrogance is earned, ignorance is not. 

 

I do believe fan mentality plays a role in this.  Look at what the browns did this year .  They had a parade for a 0-16 team that mocked them and what  they have become and that is a national embarrassment.  Do you believe that has played a role in them being by far and away the most aggressive team this offseason?  Maybe , maybe not but it didn't hurt.   I took out some frustration on your post and i apologize for it.  I just don't see how anyone can look at that jets move and feel any amount of optimism. 

 

 

....I think you're missing his point......MB is made up of opinions......at the same time, some of those "opinions" are driven home 24/7 as being gospel and diminishing those of others....look at the obnoxious "SHOULD BEANE BE FIRED" thread as a precise example....McBeane and his staff of 17+ scouts, many of which are high profile NFL personnel execs, probably at an annual payroll of $3.5 mil know their craft.....perfect?...hardly......subject to mistakes?...of course....draft and FA will never be an exact science...so some little keyboard clown starts fecal material about firing him just to be obnoxious and take away the spirit of LEGITIMATE football discussion...seriously?......because he's far smarter than the combined 17?......

[terrytate]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....I think you're missing his point......MB is made up of opinions......at the same time, some of those "opinions" are driven home 24/7 as being gospel and diminishing those of others....look at the obnoxious "SHOULD BEANE BE FIRED" thread as a precise example....McBeane and his staff of 17+ scouts, many of which are high profile NFL personnel execs, probably at an annual payroll of $3.5 mil know their craft.....perfect?...hardly......subject to mistakes?...of course....draft and FA will never be an exact science...so some little keyboard clown starts fecal material about firing him just to be obnoxious and take away the spirit of LEGITIMATE football discussion...seriously?......because he's far smarter than the combined 17?......

There will always be people who want Beane fired, its the low hanging fruit.  he has done a great job   imo , i am just frustrated with the circumstances of the matter.  We desperately need a franchise qb , and there is no reasonable way of getting one anytime soon.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, terrytate said:

There will always be people who want Beane fired, its the low hanging fruit.  he has done a great job   imo , i am just frustrated with the circumstances of the matter.  We desperately need a franchise qb , and there is no reasonable way of getting one anytime soon.

Terry, please just acknowledge you have no way of knowing that

[Pbomb]

58 minutes ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

The draft is over? Damn i was hoping we would have gotten a qb

[terrytate]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Terry, please just acknowledge you have no way of knowing that

 

You are correct i have no source.  It is purely speculation on my part based off of logic, common sense, and history.   

Just now, Pbomb said:

The draft is over? Damn i was hoping we would have gotten a qb

of course not.  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

[Doc Brown]

A lot of the frustration over the Jets moving up has more to do with almost two decades of being unable to land a franchise QB that's resulted in a never ending cycle of mediocrity.  Sometimes people need to vent.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, terrytate said:

There will always be people who want Beane fired, its the low hanging fruit.  he has done a great job   imo , i am just frustrated with the circumstances of the matter.  We desperately need a franchise qb , and there is no reasonable way of getting one anytime soon.

 

...I understand where you're coming from and yes my OPINION differs from yours as far as being able to fill the QB need.....pretty sure we ALL know the definition of a QUARTERBACK but is the a universally acceptable definition of a FRANCHISE QB?.....not that I am aware of in year 56 of following Bflo/NFL.....so your definition as well as countless others potentially differs WIDELY from McBeane's definition......sure it is one piece to the puzzle and a MAJOR piece at that...BUT.....the sum total of all the pieces have to align with what McBeane/McD/McDaboll have planned for this offensive scheme........their plan versus your plan or their opinion versus your opinion are bound to differ.....do they want a "Steady Eddie" game manager?.....do they want to mimic Air Coryell/Fouts era?......a QB who consistently is north of 4,000+ yds passing per season?.....if we knew WHAT their plan was, it would be easier to formulate an opinion.......but we don't, so we can only speculate and opinionate with decorum IMO.....

[terrytate]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...I understand where you're coming from and yes my OPINION differs from yours as far as being able to fill the QB need.....pretty sure we ALL know the definition of a QUARTERBACK but is the a universally acceptable definition of a FRANCHISE QB?.....not that I am aware of in year 56 of following Bflo/NFL.....so your definition as well as countless others potentially differs WIDELY from McBeane's definition......sure it is one piece to the puzzle and a MAJOR piece at that...BUT.....the sum total of all the pieces have to align with what McBeane/McD/McDaboll have planned for this offensive scheme........their plan versus your plan or their opinion versus your opinion are bound to differ.....do they want a "Steady Eddie" game manager?.....do they want to mimic Air Coryell/Fouts era?......a QB who consistently is north of 4,000+ yds passing per season?.....if we knew WHAT their plan was, it would be easier to formulate an opinion.......but we don't, so we can only speculate and opinionate with decorum IMO.....

 

Most elite qb's throw for 4,000 yards.  There were 8 last year and  there would have been more had wentz, keenum and a few others started all year.  

 

My definition of a franchise qb is the definition of what has been the standard for the past 10 years.  60 percent completion percentage, 2.5 int percentage, Under 10 fumbles,  Can lead 2 minute game winning drives, and have playoff success.  Those type of guys win you super bowls, enough with the steady eddies. 

[Putin]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

No offense but this post screams "taking solace in willful ignorance".  

 

This is just a message board for entertainment purposes, but this is stance you have taken is problematic for me.  1. You are giving people hope where there is no hope. 2. It is this type of fan mentality which allows for incompetence to happen year after year.  3. You are trying to portrait a rosy picture  after the jets trade, and that is a facade of authenticity. 

 

I truly hate being this negative and certainly try to avoid that type of negativity in every day life, but I can't  let you mislead people.  Beane has done a phenomenal job, aquiring picks, shedding cap space, making the most of the assets he has.  However to think that all of this was done with not a qb in mind is wrong.  It is not  a coincidence in one of the most loaded qb drafts ever we have the 2nd most draft capital of any team.  We loaded up to get a top guy and failed. Simple as that.

How do you know we already failed ? 

I think it’s a little premature to make any kind of judgment ( don’t you think ?)since the draft is still over a month away , 

im a little disappointed as well but let’s wait and see what happens , 

[mead107]

It’s the off season 

everyone take a deep breath 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, terrytate said:

 

Most elite qb's throw for 4,000 yards.  There were 8 last year and  there would have been more had wentz, keenum and a few others started all year.  

 

My definition of a franchise qb is the definition of what has been the standard for the past 10 years.  60 percent completion percentage, 2.5 int percentage, Under 10 fumbles,  Can lead 2 minute game winning drives, and have playoff success.  Those type of guys win you super bowls, enough with the steady eddies. 

 

...and yes I tend to agree......and no I am not a fan of "Steady Eddies" by any means.......I also want my QB to be cerebral and a situational guy with dependability......take away the deep ball and Peyton would eat you up underneath......stack the box and take away his short game and he'll beat you long.......Brady as well....by situational, I mean can I have any confidence that my guy, down by 7 in the 4th with 2:28 on the clock, execute the two minute drill and tie this bad boy up?.....as I said, can my guy take what you give him and beat you in a multitude of ways?......here is a "chuckle" that the stat gang likes to quote, so I wouldn't want this "bust" on my team (COUGH): "Aaron Rodgers has never won a game in which he trailed by more than one point in the fourth quarter to a team with a winning record. He’s 0-35 in those games."........

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

You as in the collective you.  Including me and everyone here.  This entire past day has been filled with posts claiming absolute knowledge over what they could have done, should have done and will do.

 

And none of us know squat.  Because we do not know what value the Bills have on the QBs in this draft.  And none of us have anywhere near the access to the data the Bills have on these guys.  Few of us have watched them live, we don't have the volumes of tape they have, we have not had access to their coaches, other players to see about them.  We haven't stood at a white board or in a film room and quizzed them about reads, progressions, etc.  None of us have any of that kind of data.

 

Know what else?  We don't have phone lines connected to every other team's front office.  So we have no idea what offers are flying around.  For all we know there's a deal right now with the Giants or Browns.  Or not.  Or with someone else.  Yet people here insist we cannot move up now and that we lost any chance at a QB.  Which is simply wrong.  Because we don't know.

 

i love the Tom Clancy books.  One of Jack Ryan's favorite phrases is : don't know means don't know.  We don't know. Beane does know.  He knows he has to decide if any of the four is a guy he has to have, or if he's OK with any of the top 6 guys.  He knows or will know if the draft capital he has acquired will allow him to get a guy he wants or if he has to sweeten the deal.  He knows if there's a MLB or DT that at 12 could solidify his D for years.  He knows because it's his job to know.

 

Does that mean a guaranteed certainty in his decision?  Of course not.  But he's in a helluva lot better position than we are to make the call.  When we woke up this morning everyone thought Beane was smart for getting a bunch of picks for this draft, for getting some decent FAs, clearing cap, etc.  And 24 hours later he's a bum because he didn't make a trade that might only get him the third QB in his board.

 

He knows.  We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

I am familiar with this type of post. It's just another "attack the fans"  post. It isn't that original.

 

Please allow me to, in the most respectful manner, remind you to whom you are posting:

We are the most diehard fans you can imagine! We are still here after decades of losing and front office stupidity. I am not going to list all of the idiotic moves by the Bills front office, but let me hold up the 2006 draft as a cookie cutter example of inept, bush league stupidity. And I dare say that this front office also had all the tools of which you speak. Am I correct so far?

 

The truth is that I feel good about our current coach and GM. They appear to be solid football people and have made some pretty good decisions thus far. That said, you are here telling dedicated fans how little we know which is your right I suppose. But do remember that a 12 year old kid with a few draft magazines and internet access could have done a better job drafting players than Whaley, Rex, or some of the other inferior football people we had running this team. There are many fans on this board who made great draft predictions, only to watch the Bills take Leodis McKelvin at #11 and lose game after game, for years. Some of the posters here (not me) are football experts. Do stick around and see.

 

Anyway, that is the past. Most Bills Fans are still scarred in some way and skeptical but maybe things will change. It does look OK so far imo.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

[Green Lightning]

45 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

A lot of the frustration over the Jets moving up has more to do with almost two decades of being unable to land a franchise QB that's resulted in a never ending cycle of mediocrity.  Sometimes people need to vent.

This. If we use history as a guideline, fans feel we're heading to yet another era of a quarterback abyss. After such a flash of competence we've seen from the FO, this Jets move is a bitter pill that many will need to process and to vent. It's like George Patton said, a good soldier bitches.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

 We don't know squat.  It's fun to debate opinions, but in the end we don't know squat.

 

 

That's correct. We don't know squat. Squat means nothing. We don't know nothing. Correct.

 

It's certainly true that we don't know everything. Beane doesn't either, of course. Nor does anyone, unless you're a religious person and believe in an all-knowing God.

 

Beane does know more than us. But we know plenty enough to make educated guesses.

 

 

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

He also knows what the Colts wanted for their #3 pick, and decided it wasn't worth the cost, unless someone thinks the Colts didn't leverage us against the Jets.

 

 

 

I've thought about that, and it's possible either way. Certainly if given a chance, they would have leveraged us.

 

But some offers come with "look, it's a yes or no offer. You have to give us an answer now. If you want to leverage the offer we won't even give it to you. Say no and the offer's off the table" ground rules.

 

I haven't a clue, but it's certainly possible that they didn't get a chance to bounce it off us.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's correct. We don't know squat. Squat means nothing. We don't know nothing. Correct.

 

It's certainly true that we don't know everything. Beane doesn't either, of course. Nor does anyone, unless you're a religious person and believe in an all-knowing God.

 

Beane does know more than us. But we know plenty enough to make educated guesses.

Guesses.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  But some here think their opinions aren't guesses.  They think for example there is no way to get a franchise QB this year because if one trade made yesterday.  And that is ridiculous.

 

10 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I am familiar with this type of post. It's just another "attack the fans"  post. It isn't that original.

 

Please allow me to, in the most respectful manner, remind you to whom you are posting:

We are the most diehard fans you can imagine! We are still here after decades of losing and front office stupidity. I am not going to list all of the idiotic moves by the Bills front office, but let me hold up the 2006 draft as a cookie cutter example of inept, bush league stupidity. And I dare say that this front office also had all the tools of which you speak. Am I correct so far?

 

The truth is that I feel good about our current coach and GM. They appear to be solid football people and have made some pretty good decisions thus far. That said, you are here telling dedicated fans how little we know which is your right I suppose. But do remember that a 12 year old kid with a few draft magazines and internet access could have done a better job drafting players than Whaley, Rex, or some of the other inferior football people we had running this team. There are many fans on this board who made great draft predictions, only to watch the Bills take Leodis McKelvin at #11 and lose game after game, for years. Some of the posters here (not me) are football experts. Do stick around and see.

 

Anyway, that is the past. Most Bills Fans are still scarred in some way and skeptical but maybe things will change. It does look OK so far imo.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

I would estimate there are very few people on this board that have been a fan of this team longer than me.  You would have to have been sitting at the Rockpile in 1960 to have been a fan for as long.  I appreciate the frustration as much if not more so than many here.  But I will say again:  don't know means don't know.  Beane has a lot of cards he can play or not play.  It comes down to their evaluation they make on these guys.

 

All I know is yesterday at this time the general feeling was he's doing a good job, and now some people want him fired because of a trade that we have no idea how it will affect anything.  It is just ridiculous.

 

You want to criticize do so once we know what happens.

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Guesses.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  But some here think their opinions aren't guesses.  They think for example there is no way to get a franchise QB this year because if one trade made yesterday.  And that is ridiculous.

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

 

Where are all the people who want him fired? A few nuts and fruitcakes, I would guess, but basically nobody. But yeah, this hurt bad.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

I think they will move up to get one guy only if they think it is a guy they have to have.  To go to 3 would be meaningless except as a bargaining chip to get to 1. Only 1 guarantees anything.  If  I'm Beane and I think there is a guy like that it would be dumb to spend all my capital to get to 3 right now.  I wait till draft day and move then so no one can jump ahead of me.

 

My guess is they may have several guys they think would be OK and not one they  think is a can't miss type guy.  So they will watch and move anywhere between 4-11 to get a guy or get him at 12

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No more ridiculous than any other educated guess. 

 

And that isn't a blue-sky guess. It's a fairly reasonable one.

 

Myself, I wouldn't go that far. It's not impossible. But it just became much much much more unlikely. This was bad news for the Bills.

 

Where are all the people who want him fired? A few nuts and fruitcakes, I would guess, but basically nobody. But yeah, this hurt bad.

Look through the site.  There are aseveral folks saying just that

[thebandit27]

I can promise that there's folks on this board that know a lot more than you think 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I can promise that there's folks on this board that know a lot more than you think 

I can promise you they think they know more than they do

[maryland-bills-fan]

Sorry folks, you should have asked me first.  God speaks directly into my ear.  The Jests just screwed themselves for the next 4 years.  They will have a possible good QB on a team that is a depleted roster.  He will running for his life, throwing to inferior receivers, playing catch-up and be unable to develop as a NFL QB.  All that wasted potential.  The Jest pick at #6 because their present team is bad. It will not get to average with losing 3 second round picks.  They just wasted $15 million on TWO "should-have-been-good" quarterbacks and now they will be grooming another of the same sort.  They would have picked before us before at #6 anyway.

Edited March 18, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[thurst44]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

 

You are correct i have no source.  It is purely speculation on my part based off of logic, common sense, and history.   

of course not.  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

Do you honestly know who will be and won't be a "franchise qb"? If you look at the top five QBs, practically no one has the same order even when just predicting. We've been going back and forth on Josh Allen, who is clearly moving up draft boards, and may be the reason the Jets moved up--and if he turns out to be what many of us (including me) think he is, and the Bills did want him, they might be saving us from ourselves. Look at the most comparable draft in 1983. The (arguably) best QB went off the board at 27, the second best was the top pick, and the third best was ours (and he's an afterthought in the 30 For 30 about that draft) and we had the 12 pick that year ... and took a tight end, and got our "franchise qb" at 14. I'll posit that worked out pretty well for us. And what team took Ken O'Brien when Dan Marino was on the board? The last time the Jets took a QB in the draft, I bust out laughing (which is unfortunate as Hackenberg comes across as an extremely likable individual), and that seems valid since here we are two years later, the Jets have just signed two established QBs, and we are still expecting them to draft a QB, so goodbye Hackenberg and Petty. That's also "common sense and history"

 

We might end up not being able to trade and wind up with Lamar Jackson, and he could turn out to be better than many experts think. He certainly put up impressive numbers with his arm, incredible numbers with his feet, and is no slouch in the intangibles. Theoretically, there could be a run on the top four QBs, and it could drop someone like Vita Vea or Roquan Smith or Quentin Nelson to us and Jackson might still be there at 22 and we would still have four Day 2 picks in what's considered a great draft. 

 

The Jets move up might convince the Browns they have to take a QB, they take Darnold, the Giants take Barkley (I'm in Jersey a few miles from MetLife and Giants fans and experts do NOT think Giants are going QB, but again who really knows), the Jets are enamored with Allen, and the Browns, who we've already traded with this off-season, decide to get a couple more picks from us, and voila, Rosen is a Bill.

 

Let's not forget the craziest, but not impossible, or even all that unlikely, scenario--that the Jets don't even want a QB. Yes, conventional wisdom (and maybe basic wisdom) dictates you trade up for a QB. However, the Jets are NOTORIOUS on draft day for, to put it generously, not being predictable. ESPN even put together this montage of groaners a few years ago, and while they have had some good picks, they have also added to the "highlight" reel.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98 (and, no, they are not drafting that Peter Pan dude)

 

It's not ignorance to say "we don't know" when we genuinely don't know. And draft history tells us we truly do not know.

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by thurst44

[CommonCents]

I don't agree with OP. There are fans here that

spend the better part of their day studying players and situations that involve the Bills,

lots of em. Moving to 3 would not have been "meaningless" that's a silly thing to say.

 

Your point is lost on me, I think you are being trolled by posters calling for Beane's head so they can generate reactions such as this. 

 

The only advantage modern day scouts and GMs have over fans is being able to meet these guys and interview them face to face. Everything else is out there if you look deep enough. 

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, terrytate said:

 

  we will get a ton of good players, just not that young potential franchise qb. 

You don't even know THAT much. The Jets could draft Josh Allen. The Giants are widely thought to be happy with Webb; Browns can only take 1 QB and they need defense. Denver signed Keenum to a 2 year deal. If necessary, we are the only team left that can outbid someone if that was is seen as needed. 

So we can move to 7th, take the QB that fits OUR team. Our HC and GM came from a place where the QB was a mobile, strong armed guy that threatened the opposition. They had a great linebacker. 

You don't know. Is it probable? Maybe, but maybe the only guy they really liked all along was a 4.35 40 QB. Maybe they valued Roquan Smith over all the QBs in the draft. Maybe they see a way to get both those guys and end the trauma. 

And in every post, I'm going to say this: There are 8,000,000 NYers that do not have a high opinion of the Jets FO. What makes you think they did the right thing this time? Because believe me, as a former NYer, I can go right down the line and tell you how stupid they are. 

[BuffaloRush]

2 hours ago, Fetou said:

I'm generally inclined to agree. With a few exceptions:

 

1) I know Brian Orakpo is better than Aaron Maybin. I've always known, since I was born

2) I know Donte Whitner isn't worth the 8th pick overall

3) I know fan picks as a rule have been better than the player we've ended up with in 1st round for the last ~15 years.

 

Hopefully we now have a FO who has the ability to compete with drunk Bills fans.

 

Careful there @Fetou, I analyzed the draft where Whitney was taken.  Many fans here tried to tell me he was a good pick 

[thurst44]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry folks, you should have asked me first.  God speaks directly into my ear.  The Jests just screwed themselves for the next 4 years.  They will have a possible good QB on a team that is a depleted roster.  He will running for his life, throwing to inferior receivers, playing catch-up and be unable to develop as a NFL QB.  All that wasted potential.  The Jest pick at #6 because their present team is bad. It will not get to average with losing 3 second round picks.  They just wasted $15 million on TWO "should-have-been-good" quarterbacks and now they will be grooming another of the same sort.

And we forgot the silliest reason why this is a bad move for the Jets. The Jets have had their best recent picks when they are slotted at 6 (Adams, Leonard Smith)

[Tyrod's friend]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

I don't agree with OP. There are fans here that

spend the better part of their day studying players and situations that involve the Bills,

lots of em. Moving to 3 would not have been "meaningless" that's a silly thing to say.

 

Your point is lost on me, I think you are being trolled by posters calling for Beane's head so they can generate reactions such as this. 

 

The only advantage modern day scouts and GMs have over fans is being able to meet these guys and interview them face to face. Everything else is out there if you look deep enough. 

No, no it isn't. You don't have true game tape. You see what the TV camera angle provides you. On a passing play, you have no idea where the safeties are or what they are doing. In most cases, you don't know the underlying defense or the purpose of the offense in a particular play before the snap. You might think you do, but you don't. You don't have access to the analytics that they do, the computers that grind out probabilities. 

It is the height of arrogance to suggest even for a minute that you can do part time, what a professional scout does full time with the power of a multi-million dollar organization can do full time. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The OP is correct.   

 

How many rediculous threads in how the JETS screwed us or how laughable Beane should be fired.  

 

We are all just a bunch of fans with wishes and dreams.   

 

If we really were experts we’d have jobs in front offices.  

[Beast]

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

He also knows what the Colts wanted for their #3 pick, and decided it wasn't worth the cost, unless someone thinks the Colts didn't leverage us against the Jets.

 

 

Sure, and I get Beane’s thinking. He has been without a franchise QB for 1 year.

 

We fans have been without one for 22.

 

I get where he is coming from but I get where I’m coming from more.

 

It was all about getting that this off season. Anyone that says different is a fool.

 

Hopefully he still will.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Binghamton Beast

[JMF2006]

If its any comfort the Jets traded up for Sanchez and they also drafted Geno Smith(although not in the 1st).

 

So take solace in the thought they will probably draft Allen or Jackson and smile knowing they will both be average or below average.

[CommonCents]

Just now, Tyrod's friend said:

No, no it isn't. You don't have true game tape. You see what the TV camera angle provides you. On a passing play, you have no idea where the safeties are or what they are doing. In most cases, you don't know the underlying defense or the purpose of the offense in a particular play before the snap. You might think you do, but you don't. You don't have access to the analytics that they do, the computers that grind out probabilities. 

It is the height of arrogance to suggest even for a minute that you can do part time, what a professional scout does full time with the power of a multi-million dollar organization can do full time. 

Would it be equally as arrogant to say any machine and multi-million dollar set up that leads you to draft Reggie Raglands over the Deion Jones of the world needs to be scrapped!

 

Look at the hits and misses of GMs then look and listen to what fans who know football say. I will bet top dollar the hits/misses aren't far off from eachother.

 

Analytics lol

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think they will move up to get one guy only if they think it is a guy they have to have.  To go to 3 would be meaningless except as a bargaining chip to get to 1. Only 1 guarantees anything.  If  I'm Beane and I think there is a guy like that it would be dumb to spend all my capital to get to 3 right now.  I wait till draft day and move then so no one can jump ahead of me.

 

My guess is they may have several guys they think would be OK and not one they  think is a can't miss type guy.  So they will watch and move anywhere between 4-11 to get a guy or get him at 12

Look through the site.  There are aseveral folks saying just that

 

 

Yeah, as I said, a few nuts and fruitcakes will take nearly any position. I'm sure there are a few people. 

 

But no, getting to 3 absolutely would not have been meaningless. Same as the Jets just put us in an extremely difficult position, we'd have done the same if we'd been the ones moving up.

 

Say the Browns go Darnold and the Giants Rosen or Mayfield. Would it have been useless to move to #3 early if as you suggest they think those are the three guys they want? Now say the Jets pick the third of those three. Still useless?

 

This hurt us. Now it could still turn out OK, if say the Bills want Rosen or Mayfield and the Giants go RB and the Jets pick Allen. But if that's how it's going, the Giants are likely to get a major offer. What do we do if the Browns go Darnold and we call the Giants and they say, "Yeah, Arizona just offered us their next three 1sts and a 2nd this year. Can you beat that?" Or if they say, "Listen, the Jets just offered us the #3 pick so we can get the guy we want anyway, as well as their 1st next year. You'll have to pretty much do a Pacman Jones at a strip club deal here and make it rain to beat that offer. Whatcha got?"

 

This hurts. It restricts our options and puts the Giants in the catbird seat, probably making it even more expensive to get there if that's where we need to go.